steve46

take a breath man First, there aren't many retail traders left...most of you have already blown your accounts to hell long ago.. Then those who still have two nickels to rub together are so afraid to lose that they can't really trade because they are undercapitalized... This is an adult game folks.....you have to be an adult and have adult mentality to play...and most here simply don't have it.... Systematic approaches that work are mostly behavioral these days....on a daily basis, people are simply trying to figure out what does and does not represent fair value...the rest is folks (and computer programs) jockeying for position...interestingly if a person can become a skilled observer, it is possible to watch price move and over a small sample, determine which direction the parade is headed.....once you obtain that skill, its essentially over and what you do from that point on is wait for your opportunities to present themselves.... Agree with the gentleman as far as vendors go...how many have we seen here over the last few months....all looking like used car salesmen.....my two cents....if you want to teach people how to do this.....first you have to find a way to screen the adults from the "adult children", then you simply display your skills so that they can see what it takes to win this game...I think most folks would be surprised at how much preparation it takes to have a winning game...but then thats what separates winners from losers in a number of endeavors.... Good luck folks

I was going to say a few things of my own invention, but as fate would have it, this is the last post before mine...I really have nothing to add except my agreement....especially with respect to these comments regardless of reputation....etc unfortunately this seems to be true....your best and (in my opinion) only bet is to find a human being you can relate to, and develop a relationship with over time, who happens to work for a brokerage....and even then..... In contrast to the "old days" when I used to keep a significant amount of $ in my account, I NOW keep only the minimum needed for intraday business...I sweep the account EVERY Friday, and I make sure my accountant reviews the periodic balance sheet submittals that they send to me....I doubt that it will make a great deal of difference if for example someone within the firm decides to embezzle or do something illegal (as happened with Peregrine recently)...but for now it is the best I can do.. Good luck

Doing better with my own discipline (not posting when I should be trading) Got the open on the retest of 2730 Then the question is "how do you manage the trade?" and the answer (for me) is you hold profitable positions as long as you can, expecting price to test the next higher/lower distribution line....and that is just what happened (again) today. As price tests the higher distribution line, we look for signs of "failure" and reversal (this is mostly tape reading using the $tick, $vold & $add) then we wait for what we call at "timed entry"...(at or very near to the hour, quarter and/or half hour). Today that timed entry occurred at 7:30 am PST on the dot.... Finally, and this is especially important for success, we look at the top of our display screen to verify that this reversal entry puts us in agreement with the DOW (look at the red display at the top of the screen showing the DOW down for the day)

Hey GOB, this one's for you I have talked about the value of getting in position prior to the open...I call it "pre-positioning" and to review quickly, it simply means getting up early (sometimes very early) and looking for an opportunity to get in front of most folks....in effect getting a free ride (up or down) to the next level... This strategy works best when the market has just made a signficant correction....and the reason it works at all, is because professionals know that this is the best time to buy (or sell) at a discount (at "wholesale" value)... Today's example is pretty straight forward.....I will put it in simple terms so you can see what is real....I got up at about 3:30am...because I figured there might be some interest in moving the market back up from the previous close...(that would be the discounted or "wholesale" pricing)....if you check out your charts for that time period you can see that during the Asian session and later during the European session, "participants" tried to take it down even further looking for sellers...but just after 3:30am buyers began to step in....taking it up above my distribution level at 2730.... A lot of this is experience, and I don't expect folks to "get it" right away, but this move back up above the dist line is (for me) a signal that the selling is over (for the moment) and we could see a reversal back up into the previous range.....as you can see, long entry at that point is already worth almost 7 points...(it would be about the same no matter whether you trade the ES or the NQ)...the only remaining questions are....do you take the profit now, or bet that it might go further as the regular session kicks in...? for me the answer is simple....you do both, taking partial profit now and holding a small position (even 1 or 2 contracts would work fine)....hoping for a continuation move up the ladder.... The important lesson here is....(if you really want to make money in this business) are you willing to do what other folks won't do....(do the research, get up earlier than most, take the chance by putting on a position, and finally...managing that position while everyone else is asleep).... Good luck

You're on the right track, asking good questions....now depending on your actions, you may or may not find something useful... If you wish to make a living trading you will discover that current conditions are quite challenging....markets (if we look at futures for example) are strongly dominated by programmed execution.....if you look at the intraday time frame charts, what you tend to see is price moving in tight ranges followed by sudden moves from one level to the next...this is designed to take your money.... Accurate identification of S/R levels may provide an edge....however, even if you learn to accurately identify support/resistance levels, you also need to 1.) Trade in a disciplined manner, 2.) Size your position properly and 3.) Manage risk (by limiting losses)...this is especially important given that most amateurs are undercapitalized. These are the issues that each "would be" professional faces....and if you can successfully negotiate them, you might find success. Knowing what I know today, I would simply make them into a "short list" and try to move through them....letting your day to day result direct your actions.....if you are making money, keep moving in that direction...if not....time to review and make the necessary changes....you see? Good luck Steve

You've "studied the markets since 1988" and "read over 40,000 pages".....and this the sum and total of the "knowledge" you've accumulated over a 24 year period...pushing a ball? OH.... MY......GOD......:doh: Edit; Have you been out of the country recently? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19887497 Best of luck to you

Well, this is part of the complexity of trading.....you have to acknowledge that no matter what system you put in place, price is not going to setup "to the tick" all the time....it isn't going to happen....so what do you do...well, one thing that can help is to use a display like mine...where I can look at three time frames...10, 3, and 1 minute.... As you can see from the attached example, price did the same thing you point out on my screen (I am trading the NQ futures)....now if you scan to the right (to the 1 minute time frame) you can see that price comes close to hitting the line, but doesnt actually touch it.....do you pass on that potentially profitable trade because of 1 or 2 ticks....? I think you have to understand that the success of any single trade isn't dependent on whether price tests a line on your screen...that line is simply a point of reference....your success on a particular trade depends on a lot of other things coming together....you see what I am saying? Now if you are inclined to do this, here is another alternative that can be used. You pass on the trade but you keep records of how these kinds of setups "work out".....and by that I mean you keep DETAILED records...how was this setup different...what was it that was not quite right?....and how did the trade progress...after you have enough data, you can make some observations and decide for yourself whether these kinds of setups are worth the risk... Remember, if you have tested your system and it is profitable, it will "take care of you" IF you trade it with discipline (if you take the trades) and manage risk properly....if you do those things, then the result of any single trade isn't going to impact you very much.... I hope this helps Best Regards Steve

And just a few minutes later, we get a reversal setup.... This one appears on both the DAX and ES (both the left & right side of the screen) as each market tests their respective distribution lines and (for the moment at least) show signs of a possible reversal...unfortunately we missed this one...lol Well one day we hope to "learn our lesson" and just trade instead of trying to trade and post....its just not in the cards for us to do both...anyway, MM and onesmith, nice to see you looking in again this evening...and now back to work.... Best of luck to you

Had to post this one.....finished my computations late this evening so I missed the DAX and the London open.... Shortly after the open, as we finished creating the distrbutions, it became clear (watching on Bloomberg TV) that the news out of Europe continues to disappoint....so we were looking for a short entry.... The attached chart is our Globex screen for the evening...we use it because it allows us to watch the three most important markets (for our trades)....For the London open we watch the DAX and NQ (because currently we are trading NQ Futures).... As can be seen the NQ screen is in the middle...shortly after the London open, price tests our distribution line, and the setup is perfect as price "takes out" the dist line, retests and fails...we get our initial scale out (2 NQ points) and then price spikes down to provide our 5 point winner....all in less than 10 minutes.... We continue to use (and accumulate test data) our approximation calcs to create the distribution lines, and as you can imagine, this is very encouraging...another "catchy phrase" winner for the books...

Having a tough day? Price is inanimate....so no "memory" per se....markets and the folk that comprise them...do in fact display memory....most of us (those without Alzheimers) have the ability to recall past prices for tradable assets of all kinds....so it should be no surprise that markets display behavior confirming that participants do in fact remember past pricing of assets.. Do you really need a primer on momentum?....its not a complex concept....human beings display the same kind of herd mentality that other animals do....in financial markets, this herd mentality is affected by reference to time frame and the ability to tolerate risk....among other things.... and finally, technicians are no different than any other population of participants. Some display significant skill, some do not.....similar to the folks posting in this thread... Good luck in the markets.

and apparently this is going to be another winner today...as price moves up to +5 yet again... We are done for the day... Oh hello Onesmith.....still taking notes....? hmmmm...well we are, 40 pages later still trading those "catchy phrase" entries....and still making money.....since I will be closing the thread soon, I want to take this opportunity to thank you and that used car salesman (Predicktor) for your astute comments on page 1. While we are at it....couldn't close the thread without mentioning Bluehorseshoe and his penetrating wit......"grrrrr".....

and here is the most recent entry as price tests the dist line yet again....this one provided the initial profit of 2 NQ points, then came back to press the entry...obviously we don't yet know what the result will be....I have posted my general rule for his situation several times....."keep taking the trades until they make you pay"...(because by that time, you have already made a profit....) provided your system has an real edge, the rule has served us well for many years.

and here is the completion of trade entry #3....as can be seen a retail trader trading 2 contracts and following our protocol would have got their 5 NQ points just now for a final profit of $40 on the initial scale and $100 on the final....$140 minus commission...risk at about $80 plus commission for this trade... This one took about 30 minutes from entry to close out...so it might have been a stressful experience for the newbie...on the other hand it would have been the perfect opportunity to practice the pattern breathing technique I try to teach folks and the result (if they held to completion) would have reinforced the process of learning to modulate emotions successfully.. Good luck

So here we are again, different day, same crap....missed this entry because I was posting...lol Here is one of my entry screens....notice that there are three markets displayed.....ES/NQ/DAX For my entries to be valid (for newbies) I want to see confluence of two markets (prefer DAX & NQ until close of European cash at 8:30am PST)....Notice that the DAX comes down to test the Dist Line just a few minutes ahead of the NQ....this lead/lag relationship is what we want to exploit... Then price takes off north and we have 2 points initial scale out....and from that point on it is all mechanical....either we get 5 points on the next scale out or it comes back to the entry and we are out...

and these are the entries that an amateur trading a small account would have taken today... Notice that they would have stayed off the open, waiting instead for a test of the dist lines later in the session.... Also notice that the chart time frame is 3 minutes...this is to try to minimize the periodic chop that occurs in these markets... Still working on an approximation math for the dist lines....and it is taking a while because when price forms a top (as we see it doing now) the dist doesn't change much, so for my work to be valid I have to go back to the historical data...all of which takes time... What I will do if time permits this evening is to post a (relatively) simple method of calculating a distribution...so that folks with basic math skills can start to experiment with it themselvses. At that point I will be done... Best of luck to everyone..

Today's distribution (this one for you GOB)...wanted to point out a simple change made in the composition of the distribution as follows 1. The blue rectangle now represents the previous day's hi to low range....convenience of seeing it on the screen instead of referring to my worksheet.....works for me.... Finally in regard to actually trading it....we have made a change in the entry and exit protocol rules as follows Minimum 2 contracts (of multiples of 2)...with the first exit at 2 NQ points ("buying a stop"), then exit at minimum of 5 NQ points (if trading with 2 contracts)... We believe this will work well for amateurs, many of whom have trouble staying in the trade long enough to make money...given those constraints, we see most of these trades taking the first scale within 5 minutes and exiting within 20 minutes....about the length of time that a newbie can withstand the tension of holding a position before getting shaken out.... Good luck

Most if not all of this has to do with maturity....and what comes WITH maturity is the ability to maintain perspective in the midst of a stressful environment.....mental health professionals characterize this as the ability to modulate emotions.... In a recent post, I offered a quote by Dr. Amanda Morris at the National Institute of Mental Health (USA) http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/14410-saboteur-mind.html Post #7 Seems to me that this concept (how humans learn to manage and regulate emotion) is at the core of our success (or lack thereof) not only in trading, but in many areas of our existence.. because to the extent that we learn to regulate our emotional response to the events of our lives, we may find that we make better choices

Really.... and I thought you were just an ignorant ass looking to take a verbal whipping, perhaps we were both wrong....

So Pissooka, do you ever have anything useful to say to people asking for help, or is this idiotic crap the full extent of your knowledge?

Welcome....sorry to hear about your problem....but you can take small comfort in knowing that you aren't the only one who has this problem.... The skill that you need to learn is called "emotional regulation"....in simplest terms it is the ability to manage the negative responses that might distract or cause you to make poor judgements... By chance there is a recent thread where you can read some comments on this subject http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/14410-saboteur-mind.html I have my own opinion on this (post 7) and of course you can read more about it by simply researching the subject through google...or any search page for that matter. and of course there are vendors who will (for a fee) provide you with magical incantations of all kinds that are guaranteed to turn you into the next Bill Gates or Warren Buffet.... Good luck

Yes indeed, I would watch that show....

Unfortunately Mr. Welch has finally turned the corner and become senile....too bad...but on the other hand he is much more entertaining this way....and I would imagine (if he continues) he will one day have his own reality TV show....sort of like Jerry Springer.....

I like this is comment from Dr. Amanda Morris at the National Institutes of Mental Health "Emotional Regulation refers to an individual's ability to modulate emotional responses across a variety of contexts. In young children, this modulation is in part controlled externally, by parents and other authority figures. As children develop, they take on more and more responsibility for their internal state. Studies have shown that the development of ER is affected by the emotional regulation children observe in parents and caretakers, the emotional climate in the home, and the reaction of parents and caretakers to the child's emotions." Clearly the ability to regulate emotion is a pre-requisite for successful participation in this profession (trading)...I may not have a PhD in Psychology....but as I recall, neither do you sir. so in this circumstance I feel equally well prepared to provide an opinion as to what "really works"..... As to whether the ability to regulate emotion is best obtained by Jungian therapy or by simple stress training, that I think remains an open question, but I would maintain that at least some folks (for example those who experienced "good enough" parenting during early childhood) will have an easier time learning this seemingly difficult to acquire skill...and those are the folks I prefer to work with.... I hope this simple explanation doesn't offend the many orphans and derelicts that abound here at TL.... Best Regards Steve

My view on this is that "it" is largely a matter of maturation.....that is to say, those who have matured sufficiently that they understand and accept the complexity of the world around them are likely to A) be able to tolerate the tension of not knowing (temporarily) whether a trade will win or lose and B) will also be able to tolerate the tension associated with delayed gratification as they try to hold a position until it is terminated with a profit or loss. For those folks (displaying adult self-esteem) this is simplified by the fact that they were raised correctly (also known in developmental psychology terms as "good enough" parenting")...and they display the ability to adapt where others of us, have to either learn by hard experience or perhaps fail and find other less emotionally taxing methods of earning a living... What I like about this is that is does not require me to generate and work with the needless complexity of architypes and all the associated paraphenalia....and once you understand it, you can simply move forward....you see once you obtain (internalize) this understanding of what it is that you are feeling when you trade, you can choose the path to correcting that deficit....as an example, good results are often obtained simply by incorporating a variation of stress training as mentioned in Brett Steenbargen's books... Not to suggest that the study of architypes won't work, it may...so might praying or voodoo ritual, or exorcism for that matter...

This is a follow up to our comment about the market rolling over Referring to the attached chart, look at the ellipses and what you may see is that the DAX and the ES both display what we call "topping patterns"....with the DAX testing our distribution line (as mentioned in the previous post).....when this happens we have confluence...which is preferred for entry, (because it increase the odds of success in this trade)... And a final note....at times like this....when price nears a local extreme (high/low) what we are likely to see in term of price action is chop...specifically we can anticipate quick spikes up and down followed by small choppy ranges as automation takes over and tries to generate the illusion of liquidity coming in off the sidelines to move the market... When this happens if you are a retail trader with limited capital....jumping in and out each time you think you see a move happening will bleed your account down to nothing.....some of you have first hand experience with that....what you need to do instead is A. Learn to identify the range characteristics.....to "frame" the range boundaries and decide whether it is worth is to take that risk......or B. Stay out of it completely....either wait for price to "move clear" of an area...so that you can see a credible resumption of trend and re-enter on pullbacks or retracements....or C. Identify the extremes in terms of price AND time.....and position yourself prior to all this chop....either in the pre-market or early on during the opening hour....(what Market Profile adherents refer to as the opening balance)... Believe me when I say you have to make some kind of adaptation to this market or it WILL take you out....and if you find that you are able to execute one or more of these strategies, the reward is that not only wil you have learned how to extract money from the market in very challenging circumstances.....BUT you will have learned how to make similar adaptation to the market in the future..... I hope this helps Good luck