steve46

Have to agree with the Colonel on this one. Other than sales pitch, I have yet to read anything that resembles "analysis"....mostly "CYA".....could be this, could be that.... Looking forward to more of the same....

Us?.....give me a break.....there's no "us" champ.....and what your "doing" is trying to sell software.. Now I realize you come from a part of the country where anyone with three teeth is considered an intellectual but really you need to give it a rest... Us.....thats a good one...:haha:

Hey RTG Nothing wrong with reading order flow....but you have to have some context in which to make your decisions....look at what just happened....PREDICTOR crows about reading a short move....then somebody decides to buy the market......and up we go.... No matter what software you operate from, you still get you ass kicked unless you have a bigger concept on which to base your actions. I admit my bias...the guy's a putz Good luck

John As you may have figued out, the gentleman uses jargon, but has little (if any) real understanding of what he is talking about. You have pointed out correctly that it is difficult if not impossible to know who is doing what...I would add that even if you did know "who" was acting, it offers little or no value to the trader. Looking at the posts you can see that everyone here is having difficulty figuring out what to do....where to find an opportunity to participate and still manage risk in a reasonable way. I use a method that doesn't require special software or mentor....you simply look at what the markets are doing and change YOUR behavior....I've attached a chart... Look at WHERE price hits its highs and lows...take notice of the timing....quite often it happens late (or early) in the evening before the markets open...if you know that this is the case, why not enter your orders at these times...when you are wrong, you cut your losses and come back the next day....when you are right, you know it pretty quickly and you simply hold on until the markets open....while the rest of the crowd is slugging it out, your biggest problem is whether to take profits or continue to hold...and you can do it with as few as two (2) contracts. and now back to Predictor's comedy act....

Appreciate the comments Dude and if you have a moment....please feel free to kiss my ass Are we clear?

I think it depends on your background and skills. I managed a book of business for a large institution for many years and followed all the majors AND the bond (Treasury). Full time occupation, so I was expected to know everything about that part of the business....if you work elsewhere to make a living, you have to know your limits and decide just how much you can do.....If you're not making money, scale back and figure it out....if you're a retail trader, don't fool yourself thinking you know it all (previous post is a great example)....best thing you can do is to be a good student of the game. Currencies are a bit different than other markets.....you HAVE TO to be able to follow world news and understand how political developments affect your market...you HAVE TO be able interpret the significance of pending events....one way to do this is to head over to Forex Factory and use the economic calendar (its free)....check out each pending event and ask yourself "do I know what this event (usually a report) means to the market I trade"....if the answer to that question is "yes" usually you're good to go....the next step is to understand how events that effect one market bleed over into others....when you get to that point....chances are good you can move to other markets and make money consistently Good luck and if you make money, remember to save some of it, and don't let the BS artists take any of it... Merry Christmas

As I have said many times before, you have to keep up with news if you want to make it in this business....of course if this is your hobby and you don't really care that much, then simply ignore me and move to the next post.....a week ago (approximately) the news came out that "Fresh & Easy" (Tesco's foray into the US market) was unprofitable and later that same week I learned from my own research that they (Tesco) were probably going to sell that business and get out....As soon as investors learned of this (probably a couple of days ago) they started to sell....THATS what happened.. Best of luck to you Steve

Have to agree with you....as you can tell I've spent a few days here...if you look at the threads I've authored you will see what I have tried to do...I leave it to others to decide where the chips lay... if you drop by a while longer, you may see that some folks here have a real interest in trading. Negotiator knows a bit about MP and auction theory....there are others, but eventually they mostly come to the same realization you have....and they leave....I have probably been here a bit too long myself. I have simplified everything to the point where all I am doing is trading the previous range, and some very basic patterns. I am retired from an institutional job, and frankly money isn't a big deal anymore. If you have an interest one concept that you might find useful is "time based pivots". Most of my old colleagues use the system and it still works pretty well. As an example, used to be that on a friday, if they tested the previous week's open, high or low, it would be defended pretty well. Even as recently as today in the NQ chart I have seen that same behavior so I know my guys are still there doing the job...simply put "time based pivots" consist of the open high and low of year, quarter, month, week and day...nothing exotic and it doesn't cost a thing to keep it in mind as you trade. edit....attached an example of a test of previous low in the NQ futures. Good luck to you Steve

Reading these posts one can't help but develop an appreciation for the British term "Muppet"....

Well, every year is different, but seasonally the folks who have the capital to move markets like to make their bonus money....and the way they max that bonus out is to take the market north at this time of year. The other side is the "cliff" and Europe...news relating to either has the potential to take things south quickly.....thats what folks in this profession have to deal with...(and thats why I close my position every afternoon)...

"Not inclined to go short"....? here is my chart for the day I use a basic distribution to frame previous market action....the horizontal lines show the overnight....arrows show the "stopping points" (areas where a trend move is likely to start or stop)....the 30 min chart makes it easy to see. I've talked about pre-positioning many times....this is what a lot of professionals are doing in order to keep from getting whipped around (its really a risk management tool). In this case the pre-position opportunity occurred between 5:30 and 6am prior to the open. After that its a matter of skill. if you are right about market direction you know it right away and you have the option to scale out or hold as you see fit until you meet your profit goals. The goal is to pull the trigger once (or as few times as possible), to be right about trend direction early, and to manage risk such that you don't take more than a 2 pt hit when you are wrong...the rest is just math...and having enough discipline to execute without hesitating (on both sides).

YOUR absolutely right Mr. Princess...2 whole years (not quite)....but close enough Wow.....again....no thanks. no sale...

Having a problem with your short term memory...yes YOUR system...MR. PRINCESS So less than 1 year of data.....thats you definition of "proven"? Ahhhhh no thanks, not necessary....

No problem princess, I am sure you have say 5 years of data to back up your claim.... and (of course) you can provide a letter of audit....? Where do we find and download that data for analysis?

OKay so I am going to "start off" by saying what a load of crap and now back to the topic; I think the challenges have been outlined by so many folks over time You have to find an edge. You have to have sufficient capital and knowledge of the market structure to trade it You have to have the discipline to execute it, and keep records so that you can do the periodic evaluations necessary to know if that edge remains viable over time. and finally if the edge you are trading goes away, you have to enough skill to find a new edge and repeat the process. Its not that big a deal....but those are the obstacles and it requires an investment in time and effort that many of you simply won't or can't make. A couple of things to think about (just my opinion) Traditional indicators like cigarettes will eventually kill you (kill your account)...however some folks learn to use traditional indicators in "non-traditional" ways....that seems to work, but it takes creativity and investigative work....as with all things, some folks can do this, some can't There are a few approaches that seem to work pretty well IF you have the (educational) background)....like my distributions for example...and for the record you don't need MY method to make it work....look at the thread and at the end is a document that shows how to calc a "basic) distribution....to make it worth while, you have to learn some math (stats) and you have to understand what a distribution "does"....again some will, some won't. You can learn to read price action using trend lines only (like DB phoenix)...thats fine but realize that you have a partial picture of what is going on in the markets....keep in mind that TODAY'S markets are news driven, so the more you understand about the way that news affects markets the better off you will be...this is especially true for those trading currencies. There are some basic ideas that have always seemed to work pretty well....these are based on human behavior. They work because human behavior never (almost never) changes and is mostly about "habits".....as just one example, traders seem to want to defend the previous day's range (open to close). The basis of this is my "time based pivots" (yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily open high and low)....I still use them successfully. Today for example in the NQ futures, price tested the area around the monthly, weekly and daily low repeatedly. I watch and trade this behavior all the time...and I make a nice living doing it.... One last thing, if you get to the point where you see the light at the end of the tunnel, one thing you will have to learn is that you need to LEARN TO BE SELECTIVE ABOUT TRADE ENTRIES..... The more you trade, the more your broker makes, and (usually) the less YOU make.... Good luck Steve

In this and many other instances, I often quote Mark Twain who suggested "it is better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt"..... Good luck to you Steve

Sir or Madam You are correct about London open....it is clearly the most important market these days. and the basis of the thread is probably this Internet link The Forex Three-Session System not a problem particularly (except for the original poster's questionable ethics)...too bad the gentleman doesn't have something original (and useful) to contribute to the topic. Best of luck to you Steve

Sorry....my bad....I don't use "trade the news"....what I was trying to say is that "I trade the news constantly" (every day)...As mentioned I use Bloomie....agreeing with you that it is expensive....I don't see a reasonable alternative as of right now...

Colonel B Trade the news constantly...this is a news driven market so if you fail to take notice, you will eventually take a whipping. I use Bloomberg, however as you mention it is expensive...one alternative is to use the free resource available on the web...a bit slower but still effective. I also have a televised news feed on at all times (Bloomberg again because in my opinion MSNBC is useless). Prior to the markets I call friends in the industry to gather enough data for a pre-market "call" and once the bell sounds I try to "get a look" at the NYSE floor conditions (again consulting with old colleagues)... Generally speaking I try to have a plan based on experience (seasonal tendencies) as well as local knowledge that I gather prior to the open. Once the open happens its all me...and I am either right or wrong...(you can see that pretty quickly if you are observant)... When I am wrong, it costs me a few bucks and I try to get myself turned around (or I step aside), when I am right I try to build a position. Its about that simple.

This is (for me) an opportunity to put a context to the phrase "self esteem"... I realize that its fashionable to think of self esteem in terms of "high" & "low"....but I find it useful to think in terms of developmental stages.... For me, self esteem is the way in which a person relates to the world "at large". I think of self esteem in terms of "adult", "adolescent", "childlike" and "infantile" Not interested in putting on a seminar, but for my purposes (mostly teaching) I look for folks who demonstrate "adult self-esteem"....meaning that they look at the world in a realistic way, AND they have few illusions about their relative position in the world...ultimately they use that realistic viewpoint to make decisions, to achieve the goals they choose and to live their lives. On the other end of the spectrum...folks with "infantile" self esteem often show up in places like this asking others to provide solutions to their "problems".....to provide answers to every question, and if possible to provide services at no cost...why....well because thats what they want.....usually an infantile character has been "created" by parental influence, typically a doting, over involved mother figure.... In a society like ours, these polar opposites exist in abundance (along with adolescent and childlike personalities) and the relation of age to "type" is simple....an adult is expected to have adult self esteem....an infant is expected to have infantile self esteem (how could it be otherwise)....and the same with adolescents and children of various ages....for each...their self esteem (their world view) should be appropriate to their age....when it is NOT...for example when a 30 year old person displays infantile self esteem, THEN you have potential problems.... Since these character types have nothing to do with intelligence, each of these types of personalities can be smart, engaging, even charming when pursuing their goals...and for every one except the adult...the ultimate goal is to "be taken care of"....in contrast, the "adult" looks to acheive goals that allow them to "take care of" themselves..... I bring this up because for traders who have what MM calls "low" self esteem, it seems to me that the hidden goal is to have the trade "take care of" them....that is to say, if the trade is successful, it provides validation (they are smart, rich, right, etc)....and when it doesn't, they are...well....it provides the tension that they experienced as infants or young children who want something but aren't quite sure that "it" is forthcomming....very similar to what some therapists call "repetition compulsion". Either way the process fills a need For the adult, they don't need to be right....rich, smart, etc....they tend to focus on learning the skills and monitoring their progress realistically....for the other groups it becomes a matter of repetition of an underlying conflict and unfortunately they are likely to continue to focus on THAT instead of making good choices and learning how to make a living... Good luck in the markets folks Steve

For most...it isn't a matter of time....but god given talent, motivation, and committment to reach a goal.... If it were only a matter of time, everyone would in theory be able to (eventually) make money in this business... Even the best educational program won't overcome a lack of basics.......and the student is usually a poor judge of their own abilities and prospects for success. Most are attracted by the obvious possible rewards, oblivious to the risks....and optimistic that they will be one of the few....that prevail against the odds....take a close look at what these commercial ventures charge for educational services and figure it out yourself folks. This is why companies like Pristine end up here trolling for customers...for the struggling student....its their lives on line....for companies like Pristine...its simply a numbers game...trying to keep a steady flow of wannabees with checkbooks coming through the door. Edit I expect a few defensive comments directed my way....so...I do train folks....four (4) people at a time....they have to fill out an application for a seat....they have to have some background that will help them get to their goal...they do pay me (from 100 to 200 bucks a month) and in the previous class, one of my students never received an invoice)....clearly I am not making a living teaching....oh, and my class is closed...please no PMs Good luck

I think its not uncommon for people to "think of themselves" as professionals because they have money (for the moment)....I am suggesting that eventually the market decides who is and who isn't a professional.....lets put it this way, if you're a net loser over an extended period of time, one has to wonder if you have the requisite risk management skills to really belong in this industry. Clearly we all start out as amateurs....the real question is where do we end up?

None of this has anything to do with a specific market..is there a reason the author refers to "forex" every few sentences.....? Professionals come in all shapes & sizes...all you need initially is money....in my opinion, the ultimate "screening mechanism" for skilled pros are A) time in the game B) general approach to the business (also called attitude) and C) results.... Over the years, I have noticed that highly skilled participants rarely respond emotionally to wins OR losses....while less skilled folks respond emotionally to both....I think what happens is that over time some folks figure out that indulging in an emotional response to either result takes your focus away from the job at hand....leading to additional losses (if you happen to be losing) and/or to missed opportunities (because you are too busy being pissed off to recognize the next trade as it sets up)....I think its about that simple... I leave it to the reader to decide on what level they wish to participate... Best Regards Steve

Heard it before...and here we are again.. as with all things in this business "what works" is what you test and prove to yourself......everyone in my classes (as I have said so many times before) is obliged to keep records to show whether the protocol works...that....and your bank account....are what matter most....not a paragraph in a book from a guy who doesn't trade (Tharp). One final note...if Tharp did trade, he might discover that in a trending market (currencies for example) his advice is good...but in a market that tends to back & fill (like the S&P Futures)....it doesn't work that well.... Thanks for the wisdom.

So tonight I posted in this thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/14467-discipline-enough-succeed.html and I realized that I really don't have a lot more to say....once you find an edge, you have to somehow find the maturity, and the internal discipline to manage risk, to take the trades without hesitation, and control your emotions long enough for your edge to kick in and allow you to take profits. It really comes down to that.... I notice a couple of things....first, check out the threads...look at how many of them are from commercial vendors (Pristine, Felton, and now "Trading Academy").....can you figure out why....its because things are so bad for these folks that they have go out and beat the bushes looking for paying students.....and why are things "so bad"....? Just one man's opinion but I think that things are lean for these folks because the systems they teach don't work....at least not consistently enough for students to overcome expenses....and in this environment if you can't get a student quickly to the point where they can make a few bucks....well....they aren't going to keep paying you.... I've said this before but it bears repeating....people who know how to trade don't NEED to sell systems....indicators, mentorships, etc....because they make more money (and its less trouble) just trading it themselves...as mentioned there has to be another reason...for me....I wanted to be able say I gave a little bit back....I think I have done that....and now I am going to go back to my primary business (trading)...I'll check back periodically but I think I am done with this subject... Good luck to everyone.