ForexTraderX

Here is a link to the results of the top 3 hedge funds and top 3 commodity trading advisory services who manage big money (as in, 1 billion or more). Remember, these are the guys who have clients in total of over 1 billion dollars in assets that they manage, and these are quite possibly the most successful funds in the world who are taking on new clients. Smaller funds won't make the cut, and if someone is private or not accepting investment, then they too won't be on this list. But if you want the best...it's a good chance that these guys here are the best. Hedge Fund Performance | Top Hedge Funds Database For the record, the top guys in each catagory have a current yearly return of about 48%-49% They will likely finish around 45%-75% ROI this year, given that it's october already and this is where they stand now. If someone tells you that they can do better than this, ask them to prove it with audited bank statements, or at very least have their data authenticated by a 3rd party service. If you can't get this at the minimum... but they are telling you that they can make greater returns than this... well, then why arn't they managing a few hundered million already? why arn't they on this list? Just use some common sense when looking for someone to manage your money. And remember, have a realistic understanding of what is possible. Best in the world. 49% for this year so far. Year is 85% over. SO good they manage over $1 billion. If you want to actually get a positive return, a realistic understanding of what the best and biggest fund managers actually do. Otherwise, you'll invest with a guy who has a "91% win rate, and never a losing month!", and you'll find out just how fast you can lose everything you have. FTX

It's really a philosophical debate. BUt you can make a fortune as an investor. You can make a fortune as a trader. You can make a fortune as a guy who sells burgers from a window to people who drive up in their cars. You can even make a fortune selling bullshit to farmers. There is no such thing as "a superior approach to getting rich" They all work. they all have pros and cons. It's the person who is doing the trading, or investing, or burger selling, or poop promoting, that determines how successful they are. Trading. Investing. You can get doing either one, or both... if you know how. Now that's the real secret. Not the asset class or type of business, but how well it is executed, will ultimately determine what makes great money, and what doesn;t. FTX

THanks, and this is about right. I've met a few people (4) who have developed profitable systems that trade daily or weekly with high returns and low drawdowns.... not a single one would even discuss selling it for less than $1 million. I know of a guy who did sell, it was to an investment bank for an undisclosed sum. He did retire after that sale though, so he too probably sold it for more than $299 on the internet. I get very good returns myself considering the risk I take and the drawdowns I get... and I'm happy to teach you all day long what I do and how I do it... and I do it for free, on this website (I have a thread I post on very frequently). But, it would probably take someone quite a bit of time to go through it, and integrate the concepts into your own personal trading successfully. With me using it, I usually can get a return that is equal to what my monthly drawdown tops out at. So, if I am willing to accept an 8% drawdown in a month, then I can expect to do about 8% per month. Could I do more? yep. Could it be stable? if I wasn't me... probably.... but I am me, and even a double digit drawdown in a month stresses me out. So, I am fine averaging 4-8% per month. It won't win a contest...but it will put food on the table, a roof over my head, and a view out my window. And I'd take that over blue ribbons and trophies any day. FTX

No DB... It's plain we are done here. We disagree. Your offended... there is no mystery. Slight surprise yes, but that's all. We've both made our points, maybe we'll meet eye to eye on the next, maybe not. But yea...here? We're done. Good trading to you FTX

Ya, ok, I thought that's where you were going with this, and your right. Because most successful day traders I know who work retail trading from home are NOT higher frequency traders... most I know of take maybe 1-4 trades a day...while this is more than 1 or 2 trades a week like a swing trader might, they also may only take 3 or 4 trades in an entire week... thus, it's the "higher frequency" trading that costs, time frame executed on is irrelevant. But it IS possible to have a relatively high frequency of trades, and be successful. I know that for a fact, because I do this myself. Click on the link in my signature, and you'll see for about 6 or 7 weeks of trading (when I started this whole live thing, mostly so people reading my thread know that I don't just talk, I trade.), i've built up over 1,300 round turns... that's about 40 trades per trading day. And this is spot forex, so there is a spread of between 1-4 pips on everything I trade. Thats a lot of comission. But I'm still up 9.2% with a relatively smooth equity curve for this same time period. I have not had 2 consecutive weeks of drawdown, no more than 4% drawdown in realized loss and 6.5% in open positions AKA unrealized loss (it was a day of stupid trading for me, what can I say) I trade very similar in my futures account, albeit maybe half as many trades...and only in USD based currencies (no cross currency trading of course)... and my costs are cheaper in futures because there is not a spread, just a comission (which is only a fraction of a pip compared to spot forex spreads) So I make more money there... by about 15%-25% depending on the month, so if we try to compare apples to apples, my profit would be about 10.5% - 13% for the same time period. So ya. totally possible. But yes...it does require extracting more profits from relatively shorter moves...so the skill and technique required to be able to do so is more than it would be to swing trade. But getting back to the whole time frame thing... I can't say if day trading is any more profitable than other trading. Profit isn't a function of time, as it is risk:reward rate and win rate combined. But back to the topic here... day or swing or position or whatever... I think multiple time frame analysis is used by just about every successful trader I know. A few exceptions, yes...but the majorty I know use it. FTX

Huh... interesting. I thought more of your emotional fortitude than this. You were neither addressed directly, nor is Neg's or my points even relevant to you (I'm assuming you are a profitable full time trader). Furthermore, John as far as I could see thought our discussion was unnecessarily neuanced and possibly trite (i absoultely disagree with him, but that's another topic)... so I was going out of my way to illustrate back to him that he WAS indeed oversimplyfying things. but you managed to somehow put yourself into what you assume johns place would be, and then took my offhanded and half joking jab quite personally. As if he had been wronged in the first place, and as if I meant it as an insult (I made that offhanded remark as a device to illustrate to John that the cliche he uses doesn't work well as he used it. NOT to diminish his character or trading ability). Futhermore, you didn't make such a statement as john did, so you did not get such a response from me, or anyone else. How or why you related to it personally is beyond me. I'm all for open ended discussion, debate, disagreement, even arguement over various trading viewpoints... but to take an abstract philisophical disagreement personally and then announce to the world "hey, i'm taking this discussion personally, because that guy over there said something i don't like"... well, I'm not sure what to say, other than obviously I noticed your offense, and I don't see how it is relevant to the point of this discussion... and furthermore I question whether you will take anything I wrote seriously since you draw emotional connections to yourself from things that are completely unrelated. I hope we can get to the end of this and see all points of view before the walls that our egos build block that from happening.... I've taken everything you've said seriously, but not personally. I intend to continue this stance during this conversation.... Do you? FTX

nothing is ever difficult once a person knows how. Algebra is pretty darn easy for me these days. As is speaking the english language, as is investing in real estate, as is starting a business, as is rock climbing a grade of 5.10b And that pretty much goes the same for complicated. Maybe we should start with a definition of "difficult" and "complicated" Here is what popped up with a google search: COMPLICATED: 1. Containing intricately combined or involved parts. 2. Not easy to understand or analyze. with regard to trading, I think definition #1 may or may not apply. It would completely depend on someones trading style. Definition 2 may or may not apply. I do think it is easy to understand, on a conceptual level. Actually quite easy. If this is what you are referring to, then I give you credit for your point, and concede this.... as far as the analysis and thought process behind it, it might be complicated, it might not. So i'll grant you that the question of "complicated" is a matter of opinion and style with regard to trading. But, LEARNING to trade is complicated. Driving a car is not. Baking a cake is not. Although the learning may be sequential, and no single aspect of it may be challenging to understand or grasp, the "complication" is in learning what exactly to learn about, and what emphasis you should give each of the concepts that you've learned, and then applying them successful over a long duration of time with consistency... this is all complicated for most people. And unless you have professional instruction, this aspect IS complicated, at least it was for me. If not for you, kudos. But I think that you would be in a small minority. But now onto difficult... DIFFICULT: 1. not easy to do; requiring effort a difficult job 2. not easy to understand or solve; intricate a difficult problem 3. hard to deal with; troublesome a difficult child 4. not easily convinced, pleased, or satisfied 5. full of hardships or trials difficult times ahead I think successful trading will fit definition 1. It does require effort, and by the attrition rate, it can be reasonably concluded that it is "not easy to do". Driving a car, on the other hand is something that I would NOT consider difficult, because the vast majority of people who attempt to do so are successful at it and are able to legally drive for many years of their lives. It MAY or MAY NOT fit definition 2. However, I believe anyone that didn't have a specific methodolgy taught to them by a successful trader who is also a dedicated and proficient teacher would find LEARNING to trade was not easy to understand, and was intricate and a difficult problem. Now, once past the "learning phase" ok, successful trading can be simple, even easy. It may be much more complicated of course, but it can be easy. But learning to trade? I think that sans great mentorship, it fits the definition #2 of "difficult" 3. not relevent. 4. not relevent 5. It does NOT fit this defintion of difficult. Is this what you are defining as difficult? If so, well, ok. But that's a pretty obscure one to go with, and even if so, it does not negate the points I bring up above. I agree, repeating something does not make it so, but I think that a failure rate of over 90% for the retail day trading industry, and the fact that the vast majority of mutual fund managers underperform the broader index (after fees), and that even the average hedge fund manager does not improve upon this much if you look at risk adjusted gains... I'm going to go ahead and say "yep. that task is probably a difficult thing for a human being to do. There must be something more complicated about it than the majority of those who try it understand." Going back to my whole "chef" analogy.... Sure, the vast majority of dishes that a chef creates at a 5 star restaurant ARE simple, and require little if any practice to do, even for someone who has no culinary experience other than basic home cooking. But that doesn't mean cooking at a 5 star restaurant is easy or simple. Look. I think I know where you are coming from with this "not complicated or difficult" bit. And I think I understand your point. And I even think I agree to a point. But just because it makes logical sense, and is actually even easy to apply, still does not make it easy. The component parts of a whole do not always equal the whole. Even when they clearly seem like they should. But I can't deny the relevance of the attrition rate, or the time it takes for a person to learn how to trade successfully once they decide to try it, or the amount of "KISS" systems and "KISS espousing" traders i've come across who are failure waiting to happen. KISS works great for traders who have learned what it takes, how it works, and how to apply it. and it's the KISS of death for those who apply it before they are thoroughly versed in the proper trading knowledge, and have had the appropriate amount of experience to apply that knowledge as it needs to be applied. And the process of gaining experience and acquiring the proper knowledge I believe fits to a large degree the definition of "complicated", and it fits completely the most frequently applied definitions of "difficult" If you doubt my points, just contact a few people you have connected with via your instructional posts on this site... contact any dozen of them... and see how many of them are trading successfully full time or are well on their way to getting there. I'm willing to bet that most people who read your work here will never be successful. If I'm correct, then either something is missing in the explaining, or the understanding. And from what very very little i've seen, you seem to explain things pretty well in your posts... FTX

Ya know john... I do both. and they both work for me. I think i sell into rising markets more than I buy into them... but that's just me. But forget me for a moment.... lets talk about you, since you brought it up. Once upon a time when you first started trading. You sit down (or maybe you stood up...in a pit or on the floor...of course that environment is a huge leg up on the learning curve alone)... and you want to trade. Now say I came to your house, knocked on the door, and said "Hey John. I know your trying to trade right now. Tell you want. It's really simple. Just buy into a rising market, and sell into a falling market" And then I shut the door, and walked away. Would this in any way ever help you to actually be able to make a full time income trading any market in the world (I mean any, as in ....would it even work in a single one?) I mean. Would it? Really? Because I'll tell you. I did get that advice pretty early on. probably in the first few months of my attempting to trade. And i'm actually a pretty smart guy. Definately have an IQ over 70. And yet it never helped me make a dime. Sure... it helps now. I use that concept a lot. Every day in fact. But it took a few years before it ever helped me. This is exactly my point, and I believe Neg's point. I fyou post that statement of buy rising and sell falling in any newbie thread... I can almost guarnatee that 100% of people from now until the end of time who read it will not be able to then trade successfully. heh... I almost hope your saying this tounge in cheek, and i just missed the joke...because if not John, I think you proved my point, if not the point of this thread. FTX

I think Neg brings up good points here (obviously I think that, as my earlier posts demonstrate)... I'll add to that I've heard some good traders who are already successful and making money saying things like "I just KISS, it works." but never once have I ever seen a trader who is not yet profitable, who says to themselves (or me) "you know...I think i'm just going to start using KISS more... i'm just trying to do too much..." and then by simplifying things, suddenly becomes successful and can now trade full time. I've just never seen it. Seasoned traders who are already past the learning curve and are successful and have all (without exception, ever... ever) invested at least 12 months or more, who use a KISS approach can and often do have more success! But for the rest? It's a complete oversight that thinking simple will produce results. Knowledge and experience will produce results. Simple without knowledge and experience will produce failure, and, it is foolish (or stupid) to think otherwise. In the spirit of disclosure, I actually KISS'ed in a major way this year. 10 years of trading, almost 4 years of full timje, and I threw away my entire trading plan, and now have a single page with only 3 rules on it: 1. Only trade what I want, when I want, how I want, for as long as I want...and never any more than I want to. 2. Don't blow a whole in my account. 3. Consider what I did wrong last week. Pick only 1 or 2 things. And just fix those things for this coming week. That's it. That's my entire trading plan. ANd u know what? I AM trading a bit better, and my life is MUCH less stressful and I have more time to do other things than my trading prep. But I had a much bigger plan for years. And I could get that only after I spent a few years learning just enough to know how to write my plan. Again. KISS is cool to improve a system that is underperforming due to inefficient or distracting components. But there are lots of reasons systems (*trading or otherwise) don't work. And nearly all of them are NOT due to distraction or inefficiency. In these cases, you can KISS all you want, your just KISS'ing success goodbye. FTX

Hmm.... I didn't say it HAS to be complicated... but I did say it is much more complicated than the vast majority of people make it out to be. none of it is hard per se.... but complicated, yes I think so. Remember, it does literally require you to add dozens (if not 100+) new words with new definitions to your vocabulary just to be able to understand many newbie questions. That's not to know answer, but just to literally understand the question. Of course, one can trade in a fairly simplfied manner. Take you for instance DB.... if i'm not mistaken, your a big VSA and market profile guy. I'm not sure if you do anything else for analysis, but lets say for a moment that you don't. It takes probably a few hundered hours at least watching price and volume at a S/R level just to start to recognize when a volume climax is occuring, and what a reversal candle looks like. Just because I can draw a perfect bearish engulfing candle, doesn't mean that there aren't many similar looking candles or "candle groups" that take a long bit of chart watching to start to be able to really understand the many patterns that can occur that essentially all mean the same thing, some will look very much like the perfect bearish engulfing, and others... well, it really takes time to add it all up (reversal) Then, if said bearish engulfing candle occurs after price has moved up 4 days in a row, after it's been trending up for the last 3 months...but the last month was choppier, with greater volatility... then it's a pretty good bet that this will go your way. But, if your trying to short that bearish engulfing candle as price moves up to resistnce... but after it has been selling off for 4 straight days, and is in a longer term down trend... then... well, that's NOT so good. Of course, that is different if we are vastly oversold, and bad news is everywhere, and the market is now ignoring bad news altogether...then you may get some short movement...but the odds are becoming low that it'll go "far" (if your target is "far away..." you could be in trouble) And so on, and so forth. First of all, it's important to realize that if a layman read what I just described, they would literally have no clue as to what I was saying? "oversold" "ignoring bad news" "short movement" "bearish engulfing" "candle" etc... a person needs to learn what this is just to be able to speak or think about trading. Mind you, all of this is description above is qualitative...so there is a necessary element of judgement for each one. And that's just to apply VSA well and get good results. Can this be effective with less complication and consideration? Sure. I think it probably can. But I think ones success rate will decrease as well. And then with a lower success rate, requires more interpersonal development on the cliche issues of patience, and discipline...etc.. because a lower win rate generally will mean longer losing streaks, and shorter winning streaks. And both of these combine to add stress to a person when they are trading their life savings, or retirement, or even their "chump change"...because we are still talking hundreds of dollars per trade in most cases... just to be able to make enough to live of off. And streaks of losing hunderds of dollars at a time is stressful...which causes people to make worse decisions because it negatively affects their judgement. And since nearly all of what discretionary traders measure is a judgement call... well, most are never prepared for this additional dimension of complication. Particularly when dealing with the stress of a losing streak. So either way you look at it, every aspect of trading for most retail traders is NOT a "no brainer" OF course, if you trade an automated system, it literally is that cut and dry. But, I know how to trade myself, and I still am yet to come up with an automated system that produces satisfactory results. Of course, for a new trader to want to do that...well, again, a lot to learn. As for thalestraders daughter... Assuming thalestrader is a very successful retail trader... and his daughter is pretty young (or pretty inexperienced, whatever) his daughter has an enormous advantage that I don't think your considering. First of all, her father has reached the point where he actually CAN "simplify" and use a K.I.S.S. approach! He has attained a breadth and depth of market knowledge that gives him the ability to distill the best or most relevent aspects of his method and approach, and can spoon feed that to his daughter. When she makes a mistake, he can immediately correct her, which will re-enforce the "proper" way not just to do things, but to THINK about things in the markets. Also, there are millions of questions that she will never even ask, because she already has something working for her. Also, not sure how long thalestrader has been trading, but if I assume it has been for a good portion of his daughters life, growing up around a trader as a father, you can't help but experience the world in part as he sees it. Comments he may make, ways he deals with problems or complications in life in general. Lessons he specifically would tell his daughter that have importance not just in the original lesson, but in trading as well. So by the time she looks at a chart, she has had literally years of observation and experience of "what a real trader should act like/look like/think like, etc" in the attitude, emotional control, the way he went about his work day, and even casual conversations he may have with his wife or older kids about his job, and what its all about. She also has intimate and overt contact with the fruits of the job, so to speak. Maybe daddy was at every dance recital she ever did in part because of his great flexible job as a trader. Maybe daddy also has a ferrari, or at least a nice car. Maybe she doesn't want for much, or lives a very comfortable life. If any or all of these things are true, she literally has a massive advantage because she not only has the perfect person to model in behavior, as well as in his specific instruction, but she doesn't have to "have faith" that the rewards are there. She has lived with those rewards. Don't underestimate the power of not needing faith. She has so many millions of reasons to like and trust that what daddy does is correct, most of which are subconcious thoughts. She never has to KISS, because her dad has not only learned enough and filtered enough of the nonsense out to give her a very potent formula that he is also second to none at instructing on how to interpret and use it (it is his formula, after all...who better to teach it than it's "inventor). And, she does LIVE with or has constant access to said teacher, so she can ask any endless number of questions and not just receive answers, but anwers that she knows is true, because hey, after all, dad has a ferrari and sent her to college without a loan or a grant, so yea, i don't need to wonder if he knows what he is talking about. he does. I trust it...etc... So this excludes the need for her to even consider looking further or deeper or learning more. For many aspiring traders without such a role model, even once the "answer" (whatever that is) is presented to them. and even after they learn it, AND use it... they need to have enough talent, or skill, or experience, or inner personal development, or all of the above, to know to stick with it when times are hard, and also to recognize if something is really wrong and to stop using it all together. Even the possibility of this happening can be enough for a trader to doubt what they do, and that alone can kick off a losing streak... and if it doesn't, then this person tends to look elsewhere if they start to experience a losing streak. Bottom line, I don't agree at all with you that it isn't complicated. Maybe not terribly difficult or enormously challenging, ok, fine. But complicated? Absolutely. I learned how to read and write and speak another language when I was just a child. But does that mean learning a language is uncomplicated because every 6 year old can do it? Absolutly not. If so, everyone could pick up an instructional language book, read it, and know the language. But some people spend a year or two to learn a new language..dpendikng on them, the language, their comittment, their age and place in life when trying to learn...etc. With only 1 type of exception, I've never met a single person who was ever able to make money as a day trader in less than 1 year. Incredibly smart people too...doctors, lawyers, engineers...etc. Not a one of them ever made money as a trader in under 1 year... UNLESS they had regular or constant access to someone who already is a very successful full time trader. Like thalestraders daughter. Or paul tudor jones's uncle. Or even an aquaintance of mine who had a lot of money (made over $200K a year at their regular job), and hired a full time trader "on retainer" to teach them how to trade. And it took them about a year to get it down. If it were NOT complicated, it would not take the best and the brightest a minimum of 1 year to achieve success, under optimal conditions. Without direct and uninhibited access to such a professional trader, I've never heard of anyone doing it in less than 2. It seems the average is about 5 years. I don't want to use too big of a logical fallicy here... but, if it was really not complicated, then it wouldn't take PHD's and intellectual property attornys 2-5 years to learn how to do it profitably. It IS complicated DB. If you have the luxuery of having a connection to a person who has been able to distill down the finer points of trading, so you never have to waste time or learn misinformation... then good, your lucky, and you can get it down in probably a year or so... but that doesn't mean it isn't complicated. FTX

"used in the context of"...and "having prepared thoroughly beforehand" taht's the crux of your statement... but I'm betting most will miss that point. And of course they will. Many will assume "prepared enough beforehand" will consist of having read a book about trading, a book about economics, and they know what a moving average cross over is. The day a person can pick the high or low of a market on a daily chart, within a few ticks or pips or whatever... and get it right over 50% of the time... THAT person PROBABLY has prepared enough beforehand. At least they display some evidence that leads me to conclude they are probably successful, if they have their head right, and have the rest of the knowledge and experience to put that skill of picking highs/lows to work for them. I'm sure there is another yardstick that someone could apply other than picking tops and bottoms... but just as I type this.... most people who read this will simply say "but that's impossible. i know it is, because someoen told me once you can't pick tops and bottoms. So, it's impossible as they say" If this is even remotely close to a persons thinking.. then they are so far from being able to make a full time career as a retail trader that it isn't funny. I suppose it's profitable (for me, and others like me)... but it's a reality that this actually isn't an impossible task. It's very realistic to pick say, a 20 pip "zone" and say, "this will be the high of the EUR/USD today"...and be correct 50%+ of the time. But that's just one part of it. Then, a person needs risk management skills, trade management skills, and immense amount of time reading price action (to know when to get out, add more, reduce, etc) they would be best if they also had a clear view of sentiment, market intentions, and longer term charts, so they can know whether this really could be the low for the next 300+ pips, or if it's just too hard to tell, and 50 pips is about all they can count on. And by the way, if you can say with a degree of accuracy that your 70% likely to get 50 pips, but only 35% likely to get 300.... you SHOULD hold on to at least some of the trade for the 300, even if you think that you will NOT get that over 50% of the time. And of course, you better have your estimates pretty good. Can't imagine yourself successfully doing these things that I talk about here? Then I can't imagine you know enough to be able to trade for a living. And on... and on... There is just so much to know. And then so much to prioritize. And then so much to test. and THEN FINALLY, so much to eliminate. And it's never really done. Your always learning more, prioritizing more, testing, testing, fixing your own flaws, then eliminating. Ya know Neg... on 2nd thought. I think i'm gonna stop posting in my thread, and instead, i'm just going to tell everyone "hey folks, it's really about keeping it simple. Just K.I.S.S. and you'll be fine!" I mean, after all... I shouldn't work so hard to reduce my own personal paycheck. FTX PS. - YAFS. LOL. I'm gonna start using that.

Yea... all good points. I just stopped out for 4.5 pt loss.. and that is it for today., considering i'm just closing the charts up now. The weakness at this point has me both surprised, and a bit concerned about the longer term implications. Monthly chart of the ES is looking topped out... and though I am (and have been) quite bullish over all on the EUR/USD... it seems many "risk" markets are toppping out... longer term charts for many of them look bearish at this point... So, I'm not quite sure what to expect myself here in the stock market. I primarily trade currencies and crude... so I have a much better idea for them, but even now... the euro is at a bifurcation of sorts, and if it breaks up this is encouraging for the ES...if not, well, they could both get hurt. Last but not least, the ES hasn't moved or consolidated in such a way that would clearly indicate it was ready for "the drop" should that be setting up at all... so that has me wondering just how likely it is without at least 1 more push to the upside... but, of course it could go either way. I guess one thing is clear. I'm really not sure 1 way or the other about the ES.

If I can get a pip or 2 here... say, 1435.50-1436ish.. I'll take it. For now, stop is 2 pips elow the low of the day. May bring that up more if the market moves more my way...but probably will just leave it unless it or target is hit.

well...that's what I get for coming back to the office instead of staying in the TV room! i'm gonna give this about 4ish points total for a stop... but then, i'm just gonna have to take it. down about 3 points now... probably gonna lose. Always sucks to end with a loser for the week... at least I did well in other areas. Anyway... here's to hoping, lol FTX

Ya know... when the first support level started to look like it would fail, I took a look at other correlated markets, NQ, YM, and currencies as well... as well as the TICK and TRIN...and it seemed weakness was in the cards... however... I think we'ev seen the low TICK for the day. And that generally means we've seen the bottom. The market is oversold in the short term, and just touched off of some significant support around 1434ish... I think this is probably the bottom for today. I think we'll see more upward action in the coming days... however, we could bounce around a bit, but for today...i think we're good actually.

Ok... I almost feel crazy for doing this... but final long. so far down a tick plus comissions...but just got long at 1434.75.

Well...we just hit 1436.75, and we're probably near the low of the day. i'd be surprised if we touched below 1434. tick seems to have bottomed out with a pretty extreme reading. I'm not gonna say we will move up a whole lot...but 1436.75-1434ish is probably a short term low, or possibly low for the day.

Well Henry. Your problem is obvious. Your crystal ball is broken. Mine is brand new and working well. Just go back to the gypsy woman, get a refund, and then go and get yourself a proper crystal ball. Ok... that's a really really great question actually. There were actually several good reasons why a long trade would have seemed pretty stupid! First of all, your right about the "double top"...though it wasn't really that...it was absolutely an area that had seen resistance before... Also, the daily chart showed a pretty bearish engulfing type day just previous, so actually I pretty much was breaking my guideline about "don't trade against the daily candlesticks"...etc. I will give you an answer within the next couple of days...probably by sunday or monday. Reason is, i'm going to try to give you EVERYTHING I saw here.... and that's a lot. Furthermore, some of these concepts are going to be new (at least 1 or 2 I can think of you've probably never considered...) and then there are other factors as well that you'll of course be familiar with, but may not have considered in this situation. I'll go more into it all over the next couple of days. May even take a couple of posts...but i'll think about it, write it up, and post it for ya. Thanks again for the questions... glad to answer them for ya. FTX

Closed out my EUR/USD long... i'm done with new orders or trades for the day. It's friday, I'm second guessing things, and I'm ready to be done. So, thats it. I may take some profits or adjust my current positions before the end of the day, but for any new trading, that's going to have to wait for next week sometime.

Well...it's really seeming to find support here... but, it's friday. i don't like friday. we're not low enough for me to be really interested... think i'll be happier starting my weekend now. GOod luck all... if u all know what it's gonna do, that's better than I can today. FTX

out at BE.... just too bearish today to try to catch bottoms.. market may be rolling over for a day or 2... maybe more.

Ok...last long here... long at 1442.75....

Got long 1 last time in the EUR/USD... at around 1.3025

Closed out the EUR/USD long... doesn't look good right now

out at 1 pip profit...and done with the ES for now