ForexTraderX

No live trading tonight, but will be on tomorrow, 2 hrs before london opens. I may trade, just not gonna to a live show of it. If I do, i'll post up a few things. But for tomorrow, Anyone is welcome to stop by and watch and learn and discuss. So.... about... 26 hours after this post is made

Well put. So, I'm just gonna assume the OP actually doesn't even trade the markets, or know much more other than "the forex market exists for something, and different people change money on it in some way" Just so bizarre to me that someone would post up an article like this, as I see no benefit to it in any way, shape or form. I welcome the OP to defend their position however.

here is a screenshot of tonights futures trades. down a bit, and no clear thought or even desire to scalp, so i'm done. still up a bit for the week, and my forex trades are going well. gbp/usd stopped out but made a decent profit, and the others are not looking bad. I'm going to bed...good luck all with your trading.

I closed out that last 6J position at BE... done with the futures for now. also, my GBP/USD trade finished with a break even on the 2nd half. but, i took half off at about the high of the day today...so, it made an OK profit over all. also, had a good time showing one of the members here some of my trading setup... maybe see more in the future

Closed 1 contract out for a 9 tick loss in the 6J... I'm not doing this correctly right now.... I feel a bit overly confident, partially because I did well yesterday, and partially because i'm up a bit in forex spot. So, i'm going to tone it down, and not enter any more futures trades for now. Mayb eno more tonight. Mistakes are expensive, consideirng I'm down about $140 so far now and the current trade I'm in isn't looking so hot. the spot trades should more than make up for it, but, it's silly do to anything if this is how i'm feeling right now. So i'll be holding off for now.

So, as I was saying, I use that flow info to help me decide on what technical levels to use to place my trades. I also use it to know what the intentions of larger players may be. For example, if I see there are stops at a particular level, and when that level gets hit, rather than punch through it, it actually stalls quick, and then reverses with a high volume pinbar or engulfing candle or the like, it tells me that those stops were likely used by a large trader or several large traders to absorb their buy order..and the bought so much they absorbed all the liquidity, and there is likely no more buying to be done at that level. It's not just anyu old pinbar to me now, see? because I knew there were a disproportionally large amount of a particular type of order (stops, which are either buy stops, or sell stops, depending on if they are hit on rise in price, or a drop in price, respectively) So, if there is a daily low, and there are stops below it, and the market went up, but is now going to retest that low... those stops are a bunch of sell orders. so, if the market hits them, yet...goes up??? well, it tells me that the so called smart money is buying. who else would be big enough to absorb those stops yet prevent the market from continuing it's down move... and in fact, it's now starting to move up. Anyway, things like this. I think about and consider. Not always like this of course...remember, I alreayd have my bias for the day...now it's jsut a matter of picking the right technical level, and as the situation calls for, the right confirmation. And this is part of it.

Just filled a 2nd contract long in 6J, at 127.87. 1st stop is at 127.87, 2nd stop at 127.67, though I may well move those stops up as I am able to. Tareting 128.08, in one, the other is an open target... we'll see. migh have jumped in too quick here... but... also, took a 3 tick loss in crude. so far, down $30 on the plus side, all the forex positions look good, and 4 out of 4 are in the green, the 1 is down only 1 pip....so, looks not bad.

Just got long 6J sept at 127.93 up a tick... stop about 15 below that. target open

oh, here's a link to the screen sharing tonight. Say hi when you get there. thanks Live Trading Webinar - AnyMeeting | Free Web Conferencing, Webcast and Meeting Service

Picking up from my last methodolgy post yesterday...once I have determined daily bias and to some degree market strength (to determine if I should wait for pullbacks, or just buy breakouts)... I look specifically at market flow information. why? well, it's kinda nice to know where actual banks are placing actual orders, as well as nations, and sometimes they even tell me how much they are worth. it's a good thing to know IMO. It may not be as clever as those indicator based systems...but hey, I like it. I guess I'm just the type who like's easy trading. I mess it up enough as it is... easy helps me mess it up less Here is an example of recent flow info: On FX, concerns over whether Greece will receive the next tranche of bailout payments, default concerns, and Greece euro exit fears continue to cap EUR/USD, EUR/Crosses - despite recent rally on ECB Mario Draghi comments. EUR/USD at 1.2260-62, offers at 1.2280-00, bids now at 1.2220-40, weak stops below 1.2220/ support 1.2200. EUR/JPY at 95.80-83, range around 95.54 to 96.61 yesterday, interest to sell on rallies for break of 95.50/95.00. WL and... Kiwi hit fresh 3-month highs around 0.8113, highest level since May 2 highs of 0.8153. But Kiwi looking toppish after recent rally from 0.78 lows. Offers at 0.8130-50, bids at 0.8080 for now, weak stops below 0.8075-80. AUD/NZD buying toward key 1.3000 again, putting cap on Kiwi. AUD/NZD at 1.2980-90, eye test of 1.3050. WL and... NZD/JPY a tad firmer at 63.25-27, from 63.20-22 on slightly better NZ business confidence. NBNZ Survey showed net 24% of companies expect business to grow in next 12-months, vs 20.8% in previous survey. NZD/USD at 0.8092-95, offers at 0.8100/10. Bids at 0.8050-60, stops below. NZD/JPY off yest's 3-week highs of 63.60-65, high since July 6 64.29. Focus still on any fresh Cross/JPY sales - led by EUR/JPY - on risk aversion, Nikkei -0.35% now. Markets relatively stable ahead of Fed FOMC and then ECB/BoE on Thursday. Again. when this thing crosses that thing, in such and such angle, that might work for some. but for me, this type of thing I find more reliable. So far, the E/A short looking good, and the E/C short not far behind. TBH, there are really only about 2 other possible opportunity that is setting up for the london and US session so far... but, they contradict some of my other market analysis, and I tend to doubt the setup will actually fully materialize. However, if they do, I will take it, since this is a setup that works very well over all, and it seems my opinion historically has only screwed it up, so now I try hard to ignore that and just take the trades. I'll just take them for a bit less, that's all. AND i'll make sure it's absolutly perfect, and meets all my criteria in full. If i'm not sure, then it's a no go.

Just jumped in with a short on the E/A... I really see NO reason for the euro to rise against the aussie, since it's now also THE carry trade, and fundamentally they are on opposite ends of the G8 spectrum, AND price action is following the trend, AND afte a weak rise last week, it's falling apart again, AND if it goes up.... I mean... really, can anyone out there in forextrading land name a single soul who's gonna look at their charts and say "oh man... ya... the euro, long! against the AUD...short! That's the best trade in the world right now! No. I don't think so. I may lose on this trade. But, i'm happy to take it. And i'll look to get short at higher levels if that's the case. Poor euro. I don't believe she stands a chance against the AUD. It's like being the fat smelly girl at a modeling competition. I'm just gonna go ahead and bet she won't win the modeling contract. Short around 1.1675 took the same trade for the same reasons in the eur/cad... just spreading the risk around, since the aud looks a bit "toppy" against the cad right now. However, I did take each for a bit smaller risk than I normally would, given that they are going to be highly correlated, and I don't want to lose twice on the same idea. But of course, i'll only be looking to sell them should they rise again...at least until the fed meeting, or until Draghi or someone else big in europe comes out to publically call the whole thing off. Would be somewhat typical of the folks over in europe to do something like that. They like to contradict themselves it seems. however... For tonight... I think i'm good. Probably for tomorrow too... though we'll lsee what the bernake has to say.

Well, here we go... seems all eyes on the central banks for the moment, and as far as the FED goes.... it's all eyes on bernakes big federal checkbook. If he cuts that check in some way, it will POSSIBLY boost the markets higher, though right now, they are starting to price this in, and have been for a short time now...so it will likely boost the stronger currencies like the AUD/NZD/CAD - but I'm not sure how much. However, if he DOESN'T do anything... we could see a quick drop here, but I wouldn't jump on shorting the stronger markets. The euro looks particularly weak, considering the ECB is likley to devalue it with their bond purchase, or whatever they do. So, looks like the dollar will chop a bit now until the fed meeting, and if it goes as expected, probably see a choppy reaction with overall risk on in most execept the euro, and if big B shows no pen to the checkbook...well, I'll look to short the euro, and if market tone and sentiment don't dramatically shift, probably still look to go long at a nice techincal level in the AUD - NZD, MAYBE the GBP... though, that'll all have to wait. For now, i'm not expecting much movement today, at least not in london... though the CAD may move today with the GDP report coming out. Only real change from yesterday is market seems to be taking seriously the talk in japan that the CB will not interviene without government support. and ANYTIME you have more people needed to agree on something, well, it's less likely to happen. Furthermore, it's a change to market tone on the yen. This explains why my NZD/JPY trade is still treading water, and why the GBP/JPY has dropped, where it is holding strong against the USD. Basically, all is still good from yesterday except i'll not look to short the JPY... or if I do, i'll be a more conservative position, that I manage more aggressively.

Thanks man, glad to see the post. if the time is an issue, feel free to ask anything here, and i'll do what I can to help clarify or weigh on what I can. Good luck in your trading.

Wait a minute... I just realized this was NOT tested through the finanancial crisis of 08-09??? If not... It needs to be. And if it fails, one then has to realize that the first black swan event that rolls around (it will, because it always does, and always will more often and more dramatic than you think it will...) You'll lose your ass. You'll go to sit down one day, and you'll just fall right on over. you'll stand up, you'll try again, and you'll just not be able to stay on the chair. Why? That's right, because you lost your ass! However, the filter I provided above using price action of weekly candles should keep it completely out of trouble, and even profitable through the financial crisis... but still, would need to be tested of course. I find it somewhat amusing that if you look at the best 10 year period for 1 market, then... YA! it works! It's just sounding more and more curve fitted than ever. One always has to ask themselves WHY it works I believe in most cases, and most of all, when it's the fundamental driving mechanism behind your system...well, ya, I think it's important to know why. And in this case, all I can say is the reason WHY it works is that markets tend to trend, and monday can set the tone for this particular market... but, why monday? I'm not sure. It doesn't make a lot of sense actually, other than the amount of time between then and the weekend... so, that's why? Not good enough for me to believe it will continue that way for my trading and investing career... and in fact, if that's the only reason, I'll fade it with some long term out of the money options positions... so when the inevitable black swan moment shows up... I'll cash out with your losses. I believe ANY and EVERY mechanical system that is going to be used needs to be tested against the 08-09 crisis to see if it really can stand up during some very powerful adverse moves in the market place. I'm just thinking... 1 market, 10 years, no black swans, long term trend over all... feels like that curve was custom fit for that chart pic there...

Well...this sounds like fun How long is it? just sept? till the year end? 12 months? Lemme know, and I'll join. and to clarify, we can't let any SINGLE position drawdown 5%...however, if we have 5 seperate positions open in 5 seperate markets, each down 1%, that is acceptable... right?

I'm not wanting to change the subject despite my own reservations as the the long term viability to such a concept, due to the fact that if it is deconstructed as to WHY it works, the conclusion I reach is that long term trends tend to play out over the long run (obviously, markets do have a tendency to trend)... and that whatever catalyst or change in sentiment that may take place over the weekend has in the past been large enough and relevent enough to keep some significant influence on the market participants in the future. Essentially, I believe this to be circumstantial. Though markets behave differently than each other, I find by far the best "systems" or "methods" are ones that work across a broad spectrum of markets independently of one another. This all not withstanding... you might consider this as a filter, because obviously, if your trading with the trend here, you have an order of magnitude better likleyhood of being successful, than if you are not. 1st: Open up a weekly chart on a saturday 2nd: determine if that previous week candle was bullish, or bearish, or "neutral" HINT: long body green, small wick = BULLISH. Long body red, small wicks = BEARISH. 2nd HINT: Big range on a candle, but a small body near the top and a long wick below = BULLISH. Big range on a candle, but a small body near the bottom and a long wick above = BEARISH. 3rd: once you have determined if he previous week was bullish, check to see if it is the 3rd, 4th, 5th, or more green candle in a row (assuming it's bullish). If you see 3 or more green candles in a row, you stop what your doing, close the charts, and come back next week. HOWEVER, if it's the first, or 2nd bullish candle in a row on that weekly chart, you can get excited - if you determined the previous week was bearish, just do this step for bearish candles. 4th: Now, use your 100 period filter, and your solid. BONUS: This will most likely work in all markets now, not just GBP, or EUR, or whatever. do it for GOOG, AAPL, CL, USD/JPY. whatever. Probably work best in commodities and currencies though....should still work in stocks. RISK MANAGEMENT OPTION: Measure the length of the candle of last week. Lets say it's 200 pips. When your trade is between 100 - 200 pips up, reduce your risk somehow... ideally to zero risk. Stop to BE is the most direct way, but there are others. Consider them, test them across a broad array of market for a several year period (10 is good). Then, you will have some decent answer as to how to best eliminate risk. Because, lets keep it real, if a candle from last week is 200 pips, and by wednesday of this week, your up 170 pips, but by friday, your down 30 pips...? Well, I'm willing to go out on a limb here and say your probably are near the end of a swing or move.... considering your about to have a 200+ pip pinbar on the weekly chart AGAINST your trade. Oh...and if this IS the case...I would NOT look to fade that pinbar this week! I would look to trade in the same direction of it. If you can program this somehow.... I would be very very interested to hear the results. Hope the spirit of free information exchange continues.

Just closed half the GBP/USD long out around 1.5729, about 43 pips on that. Stops now at BE, and targeting 1.5790 for the final profit. NZE/JPY still down 5 pips

UPDATE: the GBP/USD long from around 1.5685 is right now up about 29 pips, and the NZD/JPY from 63.35 long is down about 10 pips. I still like both trades however, as my overall market strength score is higher for both the GBP and NZD currencies than it is for the USD and JPY, so long risk still seems to be in vogue today (well, for all but the euro, which I am thinking may be a bit stronger than the USD, but probably not stronger than the yen) In fact the only currency that seems to be stronger by a decent amount from yesterday is the JPY... everything else seems to pretty much have held the same general position from yesterday. I've decided I'll be here 2 hours before london opens, and will try the whole chat room thing again. I'll keep it open for 1 hr, just click the anymeeting link that I post up 2 hours before london, and maybe we can get some trading ideas kicking around, or you all can ask questions, etc. I'll continue posting up how I do some of my analysis on this thread as well.

I find the side with the least fluctuation, tends to be the most reliable to force price up if it is currently moving up already, or down if it is down. say we are trending upwards... the offer side will often have a cumulative total bigger than the bid, except when the deeper level orders are pulled up higher, they will flash away, and then reappear, so there is a larger variance in order size on the offer as the market moves up...the faster, the move it will fluctuate. And, the bid size will stay relatively constant compared to the offer size... I don't even know why i'm telling all of this. lol. anyway. good luck with it. Bottom line is....watch... VERY carefully first to find out what you observe...and then, question why it is that way. if it then makes sense, you now understand why it works, and can extrapolate that condition and either develop a model to trade it, or find another similar circumstance to develop a model around. Good luck

100% dead on with 2. In fact, I know of some HFT models that look for a large cumulative offer before executing a BUY order... or a large bid before a large SELL order. One must think deeper than the obvious. Remember, the obvious has been thought of, and if it worked, we'd all be rich. It's like the news. you can't just buy blindly when good news comes out, or sell when bad news comes out and expect to make a profit. You must understand the motivations behind why actions are being taken, and what they represent to the counterparty who is taking them. In futures for example, it's typically the "more desperate" party who is willing to cross the bid/ask threshold.... so large players will "fish" by throwing out a large contract number on the bid or offer, to see if price jumps up or down towards the big number... because they want to see if there is a "big player" who is desperate to dump what they have, and willing to execute at market price for it. And why does said big player wait until a large number hits the market? because they don't want slippage. Some things in the market can be taken at face value, but others.... can't. figure out which ones can and what can't, and you'll be ahead of the game. TraderX

Welll, on a final note, I just filled on the forex GBP/USD long at 5685. Stops a bit below 5650..about 45ish... and 1st target is 5635. Maybe I wake up with a slightly larger account. This would be cool. G'night all, and good luck in the U.S. session. TraderX

oh, and stops moved to BE on my CAD/JPY short... now a risk free trade. G'night all, good luck trading. Hope some of you can join up tomorrow. TraderX

Well, I kinda suspected we'd stall out around 5720...and we got to 5718. However, I got my stop loss hit at +1... that's a couple bucks after comissions, so I can't complain. I'm done with the futures now for tonight. I'm exhausted, and going to call it a night early. I have the FX trades still running, as well as some orders and I'll be leaving those up, as I'd be happy to take them anytime in the next 24 hours. But for my futures orders, all are now cancelled, as I don't like to leave those unattended due to the size of the potential loss. It's no fun to go to bed up a few hundered, and wake up down a grand. Anyway, here's a SS for tonight. If anyone wants to see me do this type of thing tomorrow, hit me up here, or in a PM. If your not into scalping, that's cool too... I only scalp when I feel up to it like tonight. Most of my trading is all pre-planned out very carefully like my FX trades... and in fact,, it's THAT type of trading that I'll be focusing on. That is where the real, consistent money is TraderX

Targeting 5728 now...that's be 26 ticks on it. And probably done for the night. Up about $240 now... we'll see. At least my futures trading tonight is looking good. if the FX trades work out, it'll be a good start to the week.

I expect a bit of a stall around 5720...right here... now, the moment of truth for this trade...