ForexTraderX

I kinda see that too... seems a lack of conviction...however... it doesn't feel right. seems higher is more liikely... and, as I type, it's starting to move... if it wasn't for friday, i'd likely be in now, and long... i think a retest of around the daily high at 1409 is very very likely, and in fact, a retest of the overnight session highs around 1412 would be the target for me, if i was in this trade.

Fruit machine?? I'm not sure if i've actually ever seen a fruit machine... candy machine, DVD machine, gumball, and even porn machine....but.. fruit? and, to add insult to my injury of ignorance... i also kinda didn't get it. been a while since i understood neither the point nor the phrasing used in a sentence... maybe I really just need to get out more, though if you care to explain, i'll do my best to comprehend eh?

given the V reversal, and sentiment contributing towards moves in other major risk currency markets (euro, gbp, etc...)... i think we'll grind upwards... if not break out strong above it. in theory, I'd love to get long around 1400, with a stop 2-3 ticks below the low of the day, but i'm personally done now. time to pat myself on the back, register for that trading competition that mystic is holding, and enjoy the weekend.

Well, as Neg said... profit is profit...but, yea... particularly when a news catalyst is responsible for the move... unless a catalyst propells a market out of farily established trading range, or is some total surprise that could change the greater outlook and sentiment in the markets (like, germany announces it's leaving the euro... that would qualify as a total shock that could change the future context of things)... count on news moves reversing as liquiidty dries up at the edges of recent, previous days highs and lows. At very least, it's ALWAYS wise IMO to tighten up a stop after the market makes a "parabolic" move...since they are unsustainable...and if news was the catalyst, then this is even more often the case.

LOL... well, it seems we both feel just about the same way about each of the "fairly obvious" opportunities in the market today... was just saying dispite this big freaking "you got off the train WAAY too early buddy!" bounce i'm seeing... short above 1409 was the best opportunity, given all the information that could have been accounted for before "no heli" ben was scheduled to talk.

Ya, actually, IMO, that short was the trade of the day in the ES... I missed it, but the long at 1402.50 ended up being a lucky grab IMO... and the bounce from 1397 I had no idea would push up to 1407+... thought the earlier long entry I took at 1398.25 was less "lucky" than the one at 1402.50... though, V bottom reversals are common when there is a high impact news catalyst that causes it... in fact, it's probably the #1 cause of V bottom reversals... since the vast majority of reversals take time to develop (consolidation), or are clear double/triple bottoms, etc... but, given the daily price action off of yesterday, and the overnight session move up to 1412... a short down to 1407 was a slam dunk, and then the subsequent 15 min reversal taht took place around 9:45 am EST.... ya... short really was the better opportunity. thought, i wish i still had my long from 1398.25 :p

well, that's 2 trades in the ES... almost 5 points. I hear what your saying, and the daily PA looked bearish... however, I figured after the run up around 1412 in the aftermarket session, and considering the moves in the euro and crude, etc... I just figured that a retracement back to yesterdays high would produce a big enough of a bounce for me to catch something on. the 2nd trade, well, near the LOD yesterday, a likely lack of liquidity on the offer side, and a news catalyst creating a relative liquidity gap/kneejerk selloff by bernake talk, and I figured we had a perfect environment for a slight rebound back to yesterdays high around 1402.50, but, since I'm done, and want to be done...2 points was a pretty easy pick. good trading

well, just got long again around 1398.25... we'll see... 2 pt stop, 2 pt target

just closed out at 1405.25.... very easy trade!

I like a long around 1402.50, stop around 1398, target around 1407.00 for today... but i may move stops up or trail a stop once I get 2+ points... it just depends.

Well, ended up making about 0.45% today in spot, and had a few trades in futures as well, though they only made a couple bucks. have a good weekend all. will post up the live trading times this weekend. Please rsvp.

Closed EU out at 2552, and closed all of GU out at 5833

just closed out the ES long for 1 tick profit.

i just got long the ES at 1396.75, with a 4 point stop, 5 point target

also, took 1 more long trade on GBP/USD at 1.5827, risking half a percent, with a 35 pip stop, and a 40 pip target.

got long the EUR/USD AT 1.2490, 35 pip stop, 40 target, and risking half a percent

closed out the other half of the AUD/USD short at a 5 pip profit. basically a scratch trade.

Actually, I may not have explained it well but here is a link to a well done academic study of some of the issues that are intertwined with the euro crisis. According to this, mexico's GDP bottomed out 3 quarters after devaluation (page 44) Thailands bottomed out 4 quarters after devaluation (again, page 44) Scribd

well, i just reduced my aud/usd short... closed half the position out at a 3 pip loss. don't like the price action.

Just got long in the GBP/USD spot market at 1.5844. \ I've got a 32 pip stop, and a 40 pip initial target. risking 0.50% on the trade

Siuya, i'll grant you that with more leverage, one does have to be more mindful of potential "black swans"... but having traded through a couple such situations myself (wrong side of the SNB intervention, and in yen when the tsunami and the market whipsawed several hundered pips in a matter of seconds, not to mention a BOJ intervention against me more than once)... I've never experienced slippage anywhere close to as bad as could ever do me any lasting harm. Worst was the SNB, and I lost about 2.5X more on that trade than I had accounted for. which was less than 4% of my account capital. If I really was leveraged big, one can always purchase out of the money options, or what not. mind you, I would approach such a situation differently if I traded equities on a swing basis.... but equities are rarely leveraged much, if at all. If I frequently held forex positions over the weekend, i may be concerened, but I don't do that either. Had I been leveraged in my SNB slipped trade by a factor of 100:1... ya... that would have hurt. it likley woulda wiped out about 25%-30% of my account. but if I was leveraged at 100:1...i'm gambling big on a percentage basis anyway. too big for most traders, and way too big for anyone that plans on staying in the game. I think overall, one has to know that overleveraging is bad. but honestly, other than that single point, i'm not seeing it. we may have to agree on most points, and also agree to disagree on the importance of considering leverage amount when compared to other metrics by which risk and performance can be measured. and as far as big leverage on large dollar sums... it doesn't exist. at taht size of the game, it becomes an issue of capital preservation and incremental, low risk growth. no one is leveraging 10 million up 50 to 1. No one is even leveraging 10 million up at 10:1. And if they are, they are arbing and hedging the snot out of it because that is how the game is played at that level. multiple studies have shown that the larger ones account size is, the less leverage is used...and this is a fairly consistent direct correlation between leverage (or the lack of), and account size. I could go even further as to say that the amount one will make by basically ignoring leverage and just focusing on risk per trade will generate more money a black swan or rare adverse market condition will lose due to that leverage amount...unless of course your risking 10% per trade. which is actually my whole point. Again, it seems that this isn't really important anyway, it may be splitting hairs on such an irrelevent level that it's not even worth continuing the discussion. I mean, if risk was some unknown boogie man in a closet that hides in shadows and couldn't be seen until it was too late...then ya, leverage would really matter. but it's not. stop losses work in all but the most extreme situations, and if your keeping your risk down to 1 or 2% per trade (or less), than those extreme situations could push the market 2, 3 4, or even 5X past your stop. so, you lose maybe 5 or 10% on that situation. Fine. if you were trading with no leverage, but 1 or 2% risk, it would have been a very similar result. At any rate I think this is dead, at least as far as i'm concerened. If there are those who want to pay a great deal of attention to the amount leverage they are or arn't using, that's fine by me. I just stay away from markets that can be highly volatile, such as biotech stocks, and many emerging market equities taht I don't understand. I also don't sell naked options unless I want the underlying at that the strike price anyway. in doing so, i've been able to completely ignore levearge amounts for years now, and it's yet to have any impact on my trading results, black swans or no black swans.

also, will take another 0.50% entry short on the AUD/USD if it can pull back up to 1.0425, with a 45 pip stop, 50 pip 1st target, 90 pip 2nd target.

just got short on the AUD/USD at 1.0400 for 0.50% risk. stop 45 pips, 1st target 50 pips.

well, stopped out for +1 tick. a scratch trade on that 6B long.

well, just moved the stop up on the 6B futures contract to 1.5861, which is 1 pip better than my entry. risk free trade now.