ForexTraderX

well, looks like EUR/CAD is bouncing... figured it would bounce from around 2470ish... and if it got much lower, it'd probably retrace down to 2440. given the momentum it moved up towards the top of the range during yesterdays trading, and the fact that the euro right now looks bullish against a weighted basket of other major currencies, and the CAD looks about to be the most bearish against a weighted basket of currencies, I figured we wouldn't drop much further than 2470ish... 2440 at the lowest for today... if price somehow got lower than 2440, i'd have to rethink my bias of long in the euro and short in the cad today... on a separate but related note... the EUR/USD seems to have made a bit of a bullish pinbar type candle on the daily chart yesterday, and it has traded near the top of the range, after having done so for the past few days.... this bodes well for an upward breakout in the EUR/USD... and the USD looks to be trading strong against the CAD... so I will admit, I do believe this is a very solid trade, however, it could very well go against me... wouldn't be the first or last time that happens. All I know is, I like the trade... it feels right... and over the long run, opportunities like this can make a decent profit. UPDATE: Actually, when I was writing this above, I mentioned that the euro looked the most bullish fo the major currencies... but that isn't actually correct. the AUD looks the most bullish, and 2nd place goes to the euro... which is pretty much tied for "2nd most bullish currency today" with the NZD. so, the best opportunity today IMO in the major currency markets is a long on the AUD/CAD... at least until about 1.0170ish...

moved my stop now to about 15 cents above my entry price... trade is looking decent so far... Fact is, this could drop back down close to retest the high of the regular trading session yesterday...which was about 95.65... right now it's at 96.34, so that's about a 70 tick potential drop becore i would expect to see some decent bounce. of course, we could bounce anywhere, but if we haven't bounced by 95.65ish... i'd be looking to really reduce exposure on any short, and possibly even get long. Anyway, time will tell.

also, just got short a mini oil contract, at 96.425. Stop is about 45 cents, target about the same. will manage trade as it develops.

i'm trageting 1 tick profit on the 2 6C short contracts... 1.0103 target for both... i'm just looking to get out and move on to the next trades now... UPDATE: closed out both contracts at 1.0104... pretty much a scratch trade, less comissions.

I just got short 1 more 6C contract at 1.0110... 10 tick stop, 10 tick target... but will manage as trade evolves... EDIT: oh, my average fill rice now is about 1.0104

the 6E long trade I just closed for a 6 tick loss... gonna step away from the computer for a few minutes... i feel i'm making rash decisions, so i'm gonna get a bite to eat, get some perspective, and then start planning for the U.S. session.

just got long the 6E contract, at 1.2622.... stop is right now 25 ticks below entry, but i doubt i'll let price drag down that far before i close it out... so, pretty much open stop, open target..

Closed out crude at 96.43... don't like my entry, feel i jumped the gun... much better entries around 96.75+... will wait for price to touch there, or drop down further to get long. 6 tick profit on this one

just got short in crude oil at 96.49... 25 tick stop, open target for now....

Well, i'm really not too thrilled with the 6C short, seeing how it's down 13 ticks at the moment... but it looks like it may be running out of steam, and I should be able to get out for a smaller loss, or maybe even a BE.... as for the spot forex trades, i'm looking to take profits on the aud/usd long somewhere between 1.0255 and 1.0260. AUD/CAD probably something just shy of 1.0170. usd/cad... still not sure.

Closed out the 6A long for a 10 tick profit. Don't like how price keeps stalling at the highs, and I feel a bit overexposed with both a spot forex long, and a futures long... at any rate, 10 ticks is $100 per contract profit... i'll take it

Also just got short 6C (usd/cad futures...trades inverse to usd/cad), at 1.0098. 20 tick stop...open target...

Hey all, i'm trying to get a myfxbook account set up and a link to it in my signature here...so, this is a test post to see if that's working or not...

just got long the 6A futures (AUD/USD futures), september expireation at 1.0217. stop 20 ticks below at 1.0197, target...none yet...

Mystic, I just wanted to post a quick apology for flaking out on the entry to the contest... Ya know, I was really pretty excited about this, but as I started registering I realized that the pressure of trading in a contest right now will be in conflict with my own personal psych work i'm currently focused on with my actual trading. I'll spare most of the details, but I'm working on eliminating goals, profit targets, expectations, etc.... As I was registering, I realized that I would not be able to trade competitively without thinking about goals, targets, "catching up if I fall behind", "trying to make the most of every opportunity", etc... and these are the exact issues i'm working to eliminating from my own trading! Probably some time in the future but for now I will have to sit this one out. As much fun as I think it could be, I can't risk getting into something that has a decent chance of becoming somewhat counter productive for my own trading and psych development

Marty Schwartz (interviewed in the best selling book, market wizards) averaged 25% ROI per MONTH, for several years in a row, while never suffering more than a 3% drawdown from month end to month end, on a multimillion dollar account. This was published in his interview in this book, he also wrote a book called pit bull about his experience trading, and his account was audited because he did become a CTA, so it's not just a claim, or a rumor, but it's been validated. He also entered several trading competitions that used real money (he used his own personal account), and he won I believe 4 out of 5 years with unbelieveable returns. That's an ROI of approx. 1,400%+ per year, for years in a row, without more than a few percent draw down. This is the best i've ever heard of with real money, that can and has been independently verified.

yea... totally agreed with intent if we could close somewhere around 1411+... and though it was looking bullish a few moments ago around the stall at 1402, now, I have no idea. It seems that one could make an argument for some support existing every 4-5 points on the way down, until about 1380... but similar statements could be made up through 1420... i guess that's why we have been ranging and PA has been inconclusive in terms of signaling continued uptrend or decisive reversal down. these types of conditions, IMO, make market prognostication more difficult... and thus why in such situations, I tend to just take trades from one level of volume density through "liquidity gaps", and back...etc. Anything else other than the next immediate level is beyond my ability in such trendless conditions... At least until price gets there... but trying to do such on a friday before a holiday weekend coming off the slowest month of the year without any significant "paradigm shifting" news or world events in a rather trendless market... is... challenging to say the least i'm just all warm and fuzzy inside that I took 2 profitable trades for a handful of ticks!

if we do move up...and it looks like we will from here... I think we could retest 1407.75 - 1408 pretty darn fast... and from there... if there is any momentum (and on friday, it's anyones guess)... the next move i'd think would break the highs around 1412.

your right... and the reasons are more psych than anything. After seeing how "lucky" i did get on the first trade and how close it came to being a losing or BE trade, and being that I trade very light on friday in general (due to lessons learned long ago...) I just wanted to grab the "surest thing possible". I've risked my account all week long at this point, and though it really all comes down to psych stuff and comfort zones and what not... well, I listen to those feelings now. And I just didn't want to be risking anything much today at all. In this state of mind, I couldn't have held a trade for any significant move, because i just wouldn't have been comfortable. however, because it was such a good opportunity, i would have regretted not doing anything. So i did the best I could... and took a compromise. small risk, small reward trade that would resolve quickly without any risk of doing much damage to the success i've had thus far this week, but one that I would be completely fine with if it lost, knowing i did everything I could to minimize loss, and take a good opportunity. It wouldn't destablize me or bother me, and that way I would be able to start next week fresh, and unencumbered. as I think we both know... it was not the best use of opportunity, and was even more conservative than the trade before, which is illogical... but it would ensure mental stability for the coming week... and that took importance above all other reasons, logic be damned. P.S. as far as knee jerk reactions cutting through levels... ya... that's why I only had a single order pending, and the rest (if any) would have been manually executed. I also knew how much all 3 (my max) trades would have lost me had they all stopped out, and it was an amount that would keep me in profit for the week, and one that I was mentally "OK" with... so, it was OK for me. Aggressive though, yes... particularly that first trade.

Looks like the euro might hold the low here around 1.2560.... I tend to think it will... at least, I doubt we'll see much lower than 2550 before the end of the trading day today. if it does, then the ES will likley also be bottoming out here around 1402.50... but, I don't like to trade much on friday.... seems if i've had a good week, i worry I might trade scared due to a fear of losing what i've made...and if it's been a bad week, well, i feel a good deal of pressure to try to improve my week on the final day before it's totally done. Either way, it's not good for me, and so I take a very light approach to most fridays. i've made more money on the average since doing this. I know others that don't do much (or anything) on fridays... not that this reflects on your trading today in any way... but, well, I just don't trust friday trading in general. So anyth8ing I say about what I think may or may not happen on a friday is advised to be viewed with an air of skepticism

No, I didn't watch PA before entering at all on this trade... and though I completely agree with you it is in general a good thing to do, I had already considered what he may or may not say within reason (either yes QE, or no QE) - my thoughts were "yes QE" would undoubtedly produce a gravity defying rally, in which case I wanted to get in at all 3 possible bounce points, at 1402.50, again somewhere between 1398.5-1396.5, and then finally right around the low of yesterday (or just below the low)... Now, on the other hand I figured that was quite unlikely given that we've seen a steady stream of improved data from around the world, and most noteably a better than expected NFP the last time it came out, as well as just better data over all from the U.S. with what's going on in europe, and the relative stability the U.S. is seeing compared to other G8 nations in terms of improved recent data, I figured the much more likely outcome was "No QE right now" the only thing is, the past few days from what i've been seeing on various newsfeeds and such, is that most of the informed players were EXPECTING no QE, and yet, the stock market has been moving up, as have other risk markets (namely european currency markets), not to mention german bond yields, other euro zone bond yields, etc... implying that sentiment is driving towards a more positive risk environment regardless of what Ben B has to say about printing presses and money. In conclusion, had there been a QE, i wanted to get in at 3 points, regardless of PA, because of the positive surprise factor, and the intrinsic value that would suddenly exist should QE 3 become a reality... but I also felt that even if no QE announcement, that this would be no surprise, and the overall sentiment trend towards risk on would continue on relatively uninterruped. in other words... I had considered what the world was looking at (to QE or not to QE)... and what the outcomes could be (either yes and how much, or not right now)... and any way I sliced it... I figured a move upwards was more likely given recent moves in other risk markets, and overall macro econ positive data trends. So, for these reasons, I was willing to ignore PA for both of my trades long, because I wanted long no matter what the markets initial reaction to the news was (as long as we didn't shatter yesterdays low of course...then, i would have had 2 or 3 losses, and,...well, thats trading) I just felt a selloff would likely be a knee jerk reaction, and reversed. In fact, this is the biggest reason why I didn't get short around 1409+ earlier, because the rally in the euro and other risk currency markets that occured in spite of friday and impending ben B speaking was a clear sign to me that risk markets were biased to the upside regardless of what bernake would or would not say.... and that's a pretty compelling reason in my book to NOT get short....all technicals aside. P.S. had such a selloff occured without such a news catalyst, I would have held off entering until PA confirmed the market was slowing... since price action without a specific identifiable catalyst, IMO, is much more often a good indicator of the markets "true" intentions, than a strong price move that was caused by a news event... fading news moves can be very profitable...though I know of very very few who profit from fading "completely unexpected yet dramatic market selloffs"

I'd wait for 1405 at this point, or even 1402.50. 1407 if i was REALLY wanting in, but at this point, i really couldn't say anything other than, I think the closer to 1400 we get, the better a long trade is. it's looking topped out IMO... but, price action does seem to indicate further upward movement particularly with the V bottom "pinbar" we made off the news event I just hate to trade breakouts anyway, much rather buy a deeper dip than a run up.

Oh I don't know... I didn't think it was that bad of a trade (though, I will admit it worked out about as good as it could have) Gaps that fill will very frequently produce some sort of reversal in price action after they fill, and the market opening at 1406.50 left about a 4 point gap, which isn't a bad sized gap given the generally rangy market we're seeing the last couple weeks. (no clear trend direction for the longer term IMO) you pointed out that 1400 was the Vol weight POC, and it's also a major psych number... I figured with a stop at 1398, it would catch a bounce anywhwere between there... and since the drop essentially created a "liquidity gap" from about 1405-1406, down to my entry around 1402.50... it seemed a safe bet that a move back up at least to 1405 was a likely outcome. that being said, i don't like to hold trades for long during big news events because they can be unpredictable particullarly when in the middle of a trading range. So, at the first possible stalling point (1405), I looked to get out. The luck was the exit... but the entry wasn't so bad, and I was planning on making it a risk free trade at + 8 ticks anyway, so given this conservative risk managment plan, I think it was better than a fruit machine. Maybe more like, a pair of pocket jacks in a texas hold'em game. not exactly a nut flush or a full house, but a good enough hand (or trading opportunity, as the case was) to produce a positive expected value if played properly over the long haul.

well, seems we came 1 tick from 1412, then started to sell off. at this point, I have no clue whatsoever what the market will do. probably up. maybe down. maybe it'll surprise us and find some new way to move besides up or down. anyway, that's it for me now, since i'm neither trading, nor do i even have an opinion since it pretty much hit what I was thinking it might. time for the weekend.

on a 1 min, it's nice volume on the move up... ok..there we go... gee. too bad the market doesn't always move as I type... trading owuld be really really easy if my typing would produce such uncanny correlation to market moves as it has today. even a broken clock is right twice a day... though... now that' we've touched 1410, it's hard to say. i still think we'll retest 1412+ before we see any real significant moves down, but... couldn't say with confidence either way. I will say this... HAD I been in this little move from 1405 to 1410... i would have stops locking in about a point of profit or more... i just couldn't say where we go from here, other than "more up sounds more likley than down"