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ForexTraderX

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by ForexTraderX

  1. Aright Mystic.... at risk of sounding like a completely fickle individual, after watching this thread and the way folks are trading, I am a bit sorry I didn't join in. On a further note regarding real money, I know from experience in online poker tournaments that if there is any entry fee, or if people are playing for real money, as little as 1 cent or 2 cent bets, the game is RADICALLY different than if it is played purely for "points", or as a tourney (with prizes) but requires no entry fee. In my very limited experience, offering a prize of any sort increases the amount of "cowboy play" in a tournament if it is a free tournament. Requiring some actual money be put up to enter or participate dramatically reduces cowboy play. Probably the "purest" competition would be to require a real money account to be traded for participation, but give no prizes. Although limiting drawdown as your original intention was whether it is real or paper account probably does something very similar to real money, no prizes. Just thinking out loud here... I will say I am looking forward to the next one.
  2. Ya know Mystic, the cool thing about the way you set it all up is that it is through oanda. Oanda is great in that they are very flexible with deposit amounts... it seems it would be pretty easy to set up a competition with, say, a $50 real money account for each person. You'd be amazed at how serious people take such a competition even if it is only a few dollars on the line (but, real dollars, not play money). And of course, those that blow out, well, so be it. Since the prize would be recognition only at this time, most people won't employ cowboy trading tactics because it can cost them their $50 (or whatever) Just a thought.
  3. Obviously shoulda held that long I got in 2 ticks off the low of the day (so far)... I find that if i'm feeling fatigued going into the U.S. stock sessions, I really have no patience for drawdown, so If I don't nail the trade and watch it push into profit very quickly, I usually just look to get out. took about 24 round turns today, and on any such day I'm ready to call it a day by then. Can't win 'em all, and trading after i'm mentally tired is just a good way to spew cash, so it's all you GOB. may be here tomorrow, but i'm out for today.
  4. Well, turns out I shoulda left well enough alone. Finished last week up about 1.6%. Had a trade I carried over from friday, and it hit the stop loss when the market opened on sunday. Haven't opened a chart this week as I've just not felt much like trading. Did take some trades today, mostly in the eur/usd, but a little in the eur/cad, and the eur/gbp, and gbp/usd. Finished the day up about 1.3%, which puts myfxbook account a hair in the positive. Glad to be done trading for today... will try to post more in real time as setups occur, as well as premarket analysis, etc.
  5. out for a 1 tick profit... just not feeling it. good luck guys, maybe see u all around tomorrow, but for today i'm done
  6. eh, out at BE... I think I'm done. just not feeling much like watching charts now...and that's always my que to close em up.
  7. Actually, my thoughts exactly. After taking a 5 tick smack, i'm content to wait and see what price does if it hits one of my 3 support levels. After a really nice europe session trading the euro futures, i'd feel like a moron if I gave it all back here by trading what I believe as opposed to what I see. guess i'll just have to wait and see if I have another trade, or if i'm done for the day.
  8. I think 1433.5 and 1431, and 1428.5 should be interesting. if I get long again, it'll be right aroound one of those 3 numbers...
  9. I think I jumped in a bit too early here... gonna hold off for a bit, see what happens if we get down around 1434-33... though I'm up a good bit from the london session, I really don't want to give anything back here, so I may try one more stab at a long, but after that i'll likely be done.
  10. U may be right on this one predictor... my long here isn't the stuff that dream trades are made of, but I still see more reasons to move up than down, and should it move up, well, i'll take a little risk for a potential very nice reward.
  11. I'm looking for a bit of a breakout here... U.S. data slightly disappointing (fueling the QE rumor mill) should help a long trade, and of COURSE germany agreed to not block the bailout and euro progress... I mean, they would literally be cutting off their nose to spite their face, seeing as they have the most to lose should weaker EZ states default, and the most to gain in terms of debt repayment should it all stick together. Both of these little news pieces will likely bode well for the stock market today... also, we've been consolidating now going into 5 days since we the move up last thursday. And from what I can see, impulse moves up on an intraday basis are in style. Though, I usulaly don't play breakouts, and it's possible that we could drop down a bit more before we push up...though I have a good deal of conviction that we will indeed move up further towards 1450 over the next 2-5 trading sessions. Anyway, not my favorite trade, and I'll look to get out quick should price start to move, but it has all the reasons to continue an upward move, except for the fact that we just retested last weeks highs. But this one factor for me isn't enough to not take this trade. It may be enough for me to lose of course, lol. time will tell.
  12. Heh... ya, I kinda figured this is what you were looking for. I remember once upon a time having this same question on some long gone chat room, and shortly after found bulkowski's books, then later, his website. Do I trade according to bulkowski's methods. Interesting question... No, I can't say that I do, but this does not take anything away from his work! You see, I'm a day trader primarily. I may hold a trade for 2 or 3 days on occassion, but the vast majority of my trades resolve within 24 hours of entry. Bulkowski does not day trade to my knowledge. So it goes nearly without saying that we obviously have 2 very different styles of trading. That being said, I use bulkowski concepts heavily to help me determine my daily bias. For example, If I see a bearish engulfing candle on a daily chart of the EUR/USD, or GOOG, or BAC...etc... I know that there is about a 79% chance that the following day will close lower than the bearish engulfing day. With this in mind, I will ONLY take short trades. If this aligns with the overall daily trend, even better. This is how I use bulkowski's concepts. I don't trade using his method exactly, but if a bulkowski pattern has a high probability of determining the following daily candlestick (like the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern)... then I will only trade in the direction of the likely resolution for that following day. I would never take any day trades long if I saw a bearish engulfing candle on a daily chart in just about any market, I would only look for places to get short. Hope this helps...
  13. Ok... thanks for the reply. I see what your saying, but... I'm not sure I agree with the reasons... first off, as far as techs being "weak" today, one may be able to say this today, but doing so would be taking todays price action completely out of context. We had an unbelievable move up yesterday, particularly considering we made such a move up not as a rebound from a stunning drop, but on high volume on a breakout ie: continuation of sorts. In such situations, it is in fact less likely to have the subsequent day do anything other than create a fairly tight range day. But don't take my word for it...open a daily chart, and go day by day back though it... find days that move up or down strong, and look to see how often the subsequent day actually trades right around the closing price of the prior "big move" day. More than 50% of the time, this is true. Microsoft 8 windows simply has no bearing on the broader market. whether windows 8 is works well or not.... even whether it even sells well or completely flops... will simply not matter when compared to global and macro economic factors such as bond yields, central banking interest rates, QE's and other forms of stimulus, trends in major data releases like employment, consumer borrowing rates, the status of the europe drama... etc. If hedge funds are buying banks, it is likely becase over the recent months, many banks have been trading for below book value. that is, if one were to liquidate the company, one would have more in cold hard cash than all the value of the stock right now. thats....really really rare actually. Want to know the last time we saw such a circumstance become commonplace? near the very low of the market when the dot coms crashed. Such oversold conditions are actually typical of the end of a crash. As far as shorting tech, well, I would first want to know how you know this about "hedge funds"... and 2nd, I would ask how that plays into the biggger picture, and I would want to know how successful said hedge funds have been. Remember, many many hedge funds have lost money the last few years... in which case, if such sellers of tech are those underperforming funds, it may be better to fade them by going long. at very least, it would indicate that they are wrong the market. Bottom line here is...too much speculation to draw concrete conclusions either way. As far as S&P relative strength to the Nasdaq... well, the nasdaq is above it's 2007 highs by a considerable amount. the S&P is yet to cross this theshold. in terms of value, the S&P is a better bargain... which brings me back to hedge funds. if they are indeed short tech long banks, it's a revision to the mean play... they could make a profit even if both continue to move up (albeit banking would have to move up faster than tech...but due to it's intrinsic value now, i speculate this would be the case) I guess what i'm really saying is... I don't see how what you've mentioned will have any meaningful impact on the world wide flow of money when compared to things like central bank interest rates, bond yields, the possiblilty of more QE style stimulus, the emerging conviction from the euro zone to provide an unlimited amount of capital to stabilze potential soverigens from uncontrolled defaults...etc. And on a final note, when banks trade under book value, but bonds in some areas are actually charging you to hold them (via negative interst rates)... there is probably a good chance that the bond markets are overvalued, but the stock markets are undervalued.... and in case your wondering, the world bond markets dwarf the sum total of the worlds equity markets by a factor of at least 10:1. so, that's a whole lot of money that is in some cases actually receiving a fixed negative return. it wouldn't take much of it to decide to by some banking stocks that have more cash in hand than their entire stock is worth, to push U.S. equity prices to a new high. Sorry if this comes off as some argumentative post... it isn't meant to be that. I did want to know what you were considering since I have a diametrically opposed view of things. (I have not been more bullish on the U.S. equity markets in 4 years now) And I hope you can apprecaite the points I raise here. In summary, I would say the most important thing to consider is not what just made the wallstreet journal front page... but how will that alter or affect the flow of money around the world. Pay close attention to things that could literally change or alter the feelings of hundreds of millions of market participants world wide. If it can... then it's worth noting. If it can't...well, it may move the market for a few hours or a day... but in the end, it won't matter if it doesn't significantly alter where value is in the world and where the world wide flow of money is currently moving towards.
  14. Well, your probably smarter, richer, and happier for it too, lol. just seems that i personally see a very distinct difference in profits from those two asset classes, wondering if anyone else is in my boat here.
  15. Yes, it is... and it makes me feel better about my spot trading this week, which was just out of control yesterday, and marginally profitable at best today! lol. can't win em all... at least I can win a few in the futures. BTW.... do you trade or have you traded spot forex before Neg? I always find I do much better in futures trading... probably due primarily to transaction costs and such... but I aks because the last 2 months i've been posting profits each week in spot, but my futures trading has been significantly better almost every single day without exception. It's usually not THIS much better for me... any experience with that yourself?
  16. exited the trade at just over 3 points... I believe i'm done for the day now.. exit price was 1436
  17. from a few things that i've read, and more that i've seen myself... it seems most folks look to fade breakouts at some point in time... but after such a range has developed as the ES showed during august, actually buying the breakout is the way to go, because such moves are nearly always underestimated by many traders, and for the rest, waiting for a pullback is what many will do. It is just such occassion that pullbacks don't really occur, and you get these one directional freight trains. I'm not saying today will be such a continuation... but i'd be quite surpriesd if the S&P didn't continue to make daily higher highs and higher lows for at least another couple days... personally, I believe a retest of 1441 is in the cards within the next 2 trading sessions. Essentially, the longer a range builds up, and the tighter it is... the more transactions take place. When price does finally break, as it did yesterday, the magnitude of players holding losing positions is so much greater, due to the time that the range built up over. In most cases, waiting for a pullback will work, because profits will be taken after the breakout, as well as some new shorts getting in, pushing price back to retest the prevoius range... however, in such a case as this, the magnitude of traders holding losing positions is so great, that there is an equally great need for such losing players to cover their loss. And again, because there are so many, you will often have some party or another buying even the shallowest of dips... thus the losing traders need to cover is great enough, and the magnitude of losers also great, that no real pullback occurs. I believe this recent move up is such a breakout. It is nice that it also corresponds to my contrary view of the market (i've been bullish the US stock market for at least the last 2 months)... but regardless... when price breaks from a relatively significant range, fading it is usually the wrong play.
  18. well, got long at 1432.75... 4 point max stop, but will manage trade from here... Just 1 contract though... i'm kinda tired, weeks been a long one for me, and this will very likely be the last trade I take.
  19. Well, given the size of the breakout in the ES... and the fact that we basically ran right into a pretty significant trendline at todays london session highs... and the mixed news... after such days, it's not uncommon to see the market range for a day. I think we'll see that, and i'd like to get something long if we can retest the low of the range... considering that it seems a bull move is underway, rather position for a decent long than a not so decent short.
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