ForexTraderX

I thought about trading the ES today for about 3 minutes a few hours ago, but given the lack of break downward yet in the bond market, the price action in the ES, and the lack of move up in the bullish risk on trade in european currencies, i've decided to abstain from trading it today. I'm sure there will be better opportunities later in the week.

Yes, this IS essentially why it did what it did. But one could argue somewhat persuasively that when an entities credit rating is downgraded, it should increase bond yields and hurt the bond markets. There are reasons why it did not, but those reasons are somewhat similar to why the negative impact a disappointing GDP announcement by the UK recently was quickly reversed in the GBP/USD currency markets as the GBP gained against the USD. The reason is that the GBP movement has been more tied the past few years to overall events in europe as a whole, and against the USD more by what expectations are of inflationary/deflationary policy decisions like what various stimulus packages are introduced, etc. These are currently bigger and more influential than the UK GDP on the GBP/USD recently But that's kind of my point. When something that typically should have a signifcant influencing factor in a market comes out, and yet, the market moves the other way quickly afterward, it shows that there are even larger, more pressing reasons at play, and to ignore the typical "what should happen" and respect price. SOrry I didn't word it all better though, It was kind of a peacemeal idea that came up as I was typing... thus the multiple posts and poor proofreading.

AH yes, your correct. not sure why I typed that exactly.. Ok, you raise some good points. one could debate the classical economic effect of change vs the more recent emergence of the "safety/risky" sentiment swing that has trumped some of the more classical economic effects. However, I think the overall situation that has emerged over the past few weeks is one that primarily supports equities, the euro, the gbp, (not the franc, but the euro peg messes this up right now), and it'll be bearish for bonds, the dollar, and the yen. Technically, these are markets are also very strongly signaling a reversal in longer term trends as well. I should proofread such long posts a bitmore, and clarify. The first point you mention I was 100% wrong, what I meant was that in spite of the general fear in the markets, the QE will boost risk assets and hurt bonds. The reason this is important now, is because in spite of previous QE's and such, the bond market has continued to climb upwards overall, but I believe the "top" of this several year trend is near the end (or very close to it) As far as the last point, yes, I did mean bund yields, not bund market.

I can't speak for anyone else, but on thing I very often do once I have an opinion on which way the market will work, I look and find a point that I can say" "ok, if price moves to this point, I can say that my idea is very likely invalid, and I no longer can justify believeing the market will my in the way of my trade." At that price is where I put my stop. I may take several entries and even some partial exits before that point, but in general, I will stick with my trade until that point at which I can say "I am now wrong about direction" is hit. On a seperate note, if you find yourself unable to determine a price that would invalidate your opinion on a trade, then you probably need more experience watching markets, price levels and reactions, etc.

Also, the 10 year bond futures just made a nice 1hr pinbar (I watch both the regular and extended sessions on my charts), and it's dropping. I got an entry at 132'020, and I think it's good for about 40-80 ticks without much problem or risk. Anyway, it's been a good start to the week.

Well, so far the EUR/JPY long is up about 32 pip, and moving up strong. I really figured it would fall back down further before making this move, but it did pull back to my more aggressive possible entry point, and I was able to get in just above that point. When we failed to drop down any lower than 102.60ish when the U.S. session opened, i figured that would possibly be it for the drop, and so far so good. With such a strong impulse move up right now, I'm doubtful we'll see price hit 102ish before it hits 104.60-105. At any rate, seems like a good trade over all so far, even if i didn't get my ideal fill size and entry. The rest seem to be doing good as well

And, not saying the above list is all inclusive of the "good opportunities" of course, but I've currently got a long trade on in the EUR/CAD, and I feel similar to the opportunities in the E/C that I do with regards to the E/J.

This is really solid man. To add a bit to this I can use a personal anecdote here. This year has been rough for myself as a full time trader. I've even twice reconstructed some significant parts of my trading plan (something I haven't felt needing doing in almost 3 years until now) at first, due to some drawdowns and slow periods, I decided to create harder, stricter rules for my setups, my trade management, etc. And it went well, for a couple months. Then, I end up wiping out a fair portion of this years earnings on a "bad week" of emotional trading. so a few months ago, I decided to throw out that new set of further structure, and actual take a more relaxed view of everything. I found that when I feel I want to be trading, really want to be trading, or the opportunities are good enough to get me excited about the markets, then I do well. On days I trade out of obligation, or because I feel I should be doing my job, etc... I tend to do less well. And worst of all, it's those days that I can become completely destabilized and experience a double digit loss in a day or 2. Now, I literally threw nearly my entire trading plan out, so to speak. I've reduced it to just two simple rules: 1. Only trade when want, how I want, in the markets that I want, during the times I want to. 2. Don't Blow Up. For me, more rules and structure to my plan only made things worse. I find my "discipline" is in my always paying close attention to how i'm feeling internally. And, to constantly stay "in the moment" when I trade, so as I never get so stressed or unnerved to trigger a fight or flight reaction in me (in which I can melt down). I tend to be a highly reactionary person, and I get angry quickly. For me, the discipline to always focus on balance, and to constantly question my own thoughts and state of mind, so as I can monitor this as I trade. Like many other full time discretionary day traders, I don't need any sort of plan that tells me what my setups are, or how much I can risk on a trade, etc. I know it all because I've done it a million times, in a million ways, and I know what works and what doesn't. Like an experienced mechanic, I don't need a book to tell me how an engine goes together, or that this problem means that this part needs replacing, etc. my discipline now comes in remaining balanced. To actually work less. To have fewer rules. To remember to focus on my feelings more. These are not things I naturally do well. They take work for me. The end result is I don't need a rule to tell me how many trades I can or cannot take in a day. I don't need a rule to tell me how much I can or cannot risk in a day. I have no written setups. I just have an understanding of the markets, and myself. I know my own limits, and I have the discipline to stay focused on myself and those limits so I can make the best decisions in the markets. Again, very good post.

Also, if I had to pick a very aggressive entry on the EUR/JPY, it would be 102.65-102.50, but the most reasonable and optimal support level to get in would be between 102.30-102.00 IMO

Here are a couple charts of the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY.\ Notice how the USD/JPY made a perfect pinbar (and a bit of a false breakout) last week. Also, this is about the price that BOJ has said is their "line in the sand", not to mention the overall improvement in risk sentiment and a high yen putting downward pressure on japans export based economy. For these reasons, I see both technical and fundamental reasons to support a move up in the coming weeks for the USD/JPY. Furthermore, there is a chart of the EUR/USD. it too is showing some significant bullish price action, but is nearly 200 pips away from the most likely significant point of resistance. Also, the Draghi euro bond announcement, combined with the Bernake QE announcement, make for two powerful fundamental reasons to believe the euro will keep moving up this week against the dollar. So, we have significant weekly price action AND fundamentals supporting more bullish movement in the EUR/USD. And we have significant weekly price action AND fundamentals supporting more bullish movement in the USD/JPY With this being the case, I think the best currency trade of the week will be to catch a long in the EUR/JPY. I see a very clean shot for it up towards about 104.60, and then more at 105.50ish. But I don't think that'll hold for long, and I really don't see any significant resistance until at least 107-108. I think this is a fairly rare opportunity that allows both for a fairly clear 250-400 pip zone where price will likely move through, but probably with 1 or 2 opportunities to get in with a pretty tight stop. If we can pull down towards 102.30, I'll put a decent position on somewhere between 102.30 and 102 if price action shows slowing momentum as price pulls back to that level. This could essentially provide a trade with a 25-45 pip stop, and a 250-300 pip 1ST target, and a 400+ pip final target. Essentially, this will provide a minimum of about 5:1 reward:risk ratio, and possibly over 10:1 reward:risk ratio. If the eur/jpy dropped lower, the next place I would be looking to get in long for a significant position would be around 101.25 - 100.50. Of course, this would likely provide even a better RR. Any lower and I would have to reconsider my bullish bias, but that seems a very long way away, and very unlikely to happen anyway. I think it's a fairly rare opportunity here to be able to take a trade with a 5:1 or even 10:1 payout, and have probably better than a 50% chance of hitting it. Trading opportunities like this can make an entire month, so when they come along, it's best to carefully plan out the entry and risk managment aspect of it, so you can be sure not to miss the trade by either entering too early and getting stopped out, or waiting too long and missing it. It needs to be a balance of carefully selected entry and stop points, with a willingness to take more than 1 entry if necessary, but with a predetermined plan that provides a maximum cutoff point both in terms of how much total will be risked on the trade opportunity (say, 2% risk over 3 entries), and at what point it will be determined a non-starter (say, daily candle closes below 100.00, move on to the next trade) As for myself, I have a tiny position on now, with a big stop, but bigger target taht is better than 2:1 reward:risk. It's possible that we won't even see 102.30, and with an opportunity this good, I want to be sure to get something, even if it's just a fraction of a percent.

Well, after a somewhat stress free and relaxing weekend, I'm ready to get back to the pleasant job of risking my life savings in a career that determines my income based completely on the opinions, moods, and feelings of millions of random strangers who are all simultaniously trying to bet trillions of dollars against each other (and me). At any rate, at least I took the time to study the markets and I feel that something is definately afoot in terms of a significant shift in underlying market sentiment. Namely - risk is coming back in vogue, and this will likely only increase over the coming months though to at least the end of the year. I did a pretty detailed post up already over at the ES thread on this site... check my posts about half way down the page Markets and opportunities I like the most: 1. Short the U.S. bond market (10 year is my favorite) 2. Long the U.S. stock market (S&P is my favorite) 3. Long the Euro (EUR/JPY I think is most likley to win out) Basically, I'm looking to short the yen, possibly the dollar (though it's quite oversold), long risk currencies, best of all the euro, and my least favorite risk market is probably the Comdolls right now. I made a more in depth post over on the E-mini thread. here's a link: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/9773-day-trading-e-mini-futures-708.html

Here's an article that I saw posted over at oanda today. Week in FX EUROPE Sept 9-14: EUR Bulls Squeeze Retail | OANDA Forex Blog this is exactly the type of thing i'm talking about. this article is genuinely bullish! in fact, it couldn't be much more bullish. That leads me to believe it may be biased more than most other articles... but that's just the point. Such a bullish tone was non-existant 3 weeks ago. Heck, for the last 8 or 9 months i haven't seen such optimism. But, it's based in underlying fundamentals, and risk is at a great value overall by nearly any fundamental yardstick. I know a lot of the discussion here is focused just on the next major level or whatnot, but I find a good deal of value in a medium/longer term view on the markets as well, and I think the S&P is quickly heading to retest the highs of a few years ago.

I agree with 1479-80, but not so much with the significant pullback. feels more light consolidation day. Of course we could have a bit of a pullback, but I still believe 1500 is likely by week end. More importantly, I have a great deal of conviction we'll see this market move up to retest high 1500's until we see much chance of a reall pullback. As it stands on my chart, the next place we have both a possible intersection of a diagonal and horizontal SR level is around 1560+. I just think the momentum and the catalysts involved in contributing to this are much greater than a lot of folks are realizing. Was thinking about why I felt this way in fact, and I think it best has something to do with both technical price action and market sentiment. Around the internet and on bloomberg and other news sources, the amount of people bearish on risk markets over all even just 2-3 weeks ago was significant. Nearly everyone in the world seemed to me to be slinging around words like "hopium" and "sucker rally" and "anyone buying the euro/S&P/risk-assets is a moron!".... things like this. Mostly about the euro, but that's been really what it's all about. If the euro union looked "strong like bull", i'd see little if any reason for fear in the marketplace. But yet, those markets started moving up. Just when a day would come when they looked like they would drop, they would keep moving up. Now, I see less conviction in the tone of news articles and other traders regarding the short side of the euro. I see a more measured commentary. But the market is exploding upwards really. Significant trendlines are breaking. Of course many less experienced players are still thinking short risk rally in general, and they MAY be correct... but it seems the more thoughtful are much more neutral, or starting to become more bullish. I see this as a natural cycle. at the bottom of a market cycle, nearly everyone is bearish. At the top, bullish. Right now, i'm seeing a definiate change in the tone and mood of financial news and commentary compared to a few weeks ago, but not nearly enough to say "yes, the good majority are bullish". It's still a minority, but growing. I think this is really what's shifting. we've had price fluctuations and such before, particularly in other risk markets, and then they drop off. A few get bullish, but not many, and not for long. But the last few weeks, it's felt different. a real change in market participant tone and sentiment. You can see it in the news articles and such coming out. Read a dozen from the last 48 hours. Then, go back 3 weeks and do the same. It's really a different feel to them. combine this shift in sentiment with the furious price action move we are seeing in risk markets (particularly euro related risk markets), plus the underlying fundamental value in many of them, and the fundamental overpricing in the world bond markets... and I think this little move up here for the S&P, euro, risk, etc, is a something more this time. P.S. Plus, copper just broke out of a base 2 weeks ago, and has now broken a TL. Copper being an industrial metal (probably THE industrial metal), i've very rarely seen a rally in the stock market that wasn't accompanied by a rally in copper. ANd boy is it ever moving up.

Well, i'm thinking we hit 1500 this week. We basically just broke an upward sloping trendline on some of the most significant news since greece freaked the world out with their non-election. QE3, combined with the strong (and more unified than usual) draghi "bottomless well of bond cash" speak, and now the german courts giving the thumbs up to a legal proceeding (as if it would go any other way. FWIW, it's greece holding the loaded gun to germany now, NOT the other way around). Risk hasn't been this in style all year. But really, seems this is just the tip of the iceburg. IN SPITE of the QE3, U.S. 10 year bond futures closed near their absolute low of the week. This is so damn telling IMO. Watch for a market to do something that it SHOULDN'T do... and I mean really shouldn't do... if it does such a surprising thing.... trust price. Not your feelings or opinions, and not other peoples feeling or other peoples opinions... and throw fundamentals out the F'ing window for the moment. Because as I see it, it's one of those rare times that the market doesn't care how "sweet of a deal" the fundamental story is telling, it doesn't care, it's being sold off anyway. When price action starts to ignore the most basic fundamental gears that move the markets, it almost always is signalling a significant, long, strong move exactly as price is saying it will. last time I saw this was in the GBP/USD. It was the first week in august (if I remember correctly) that they annoucned their GDP dropped. That's pretty serious. A surprise GDP number, a surprise employment number, a surprise interest rate change, and a QE. Those are about the top 4 factors that will move a currency, hands down. So, british GDP came out negative, signaling an almost sure return to a recession. Yet within 24 hours, the market had a strong bull day. within 3 days, it traded higher than the high established on bad GDP day, and had not made a new low. 3 more days, and it closed above the high of the bad GDP day. 8 more days, it broke out. It is now up 700 pips from the low of the bad GDP day. it just never made a lower low after that following bullish day. I could literally give a couple dozen examples of this type of situation in currency markets over the past couple years. Anyone remember the day the S&P downgraded U.S. credit ratings a year or so ago? ironically, the bond market had a stunning rally. In fact, since that day, we have not traded below it in the 10 year bond futures. bottom line... we devalue our currency, making old debt issues intrinsically more valuable, and the debt market sells off hard on the week. I'm not a really big "on the record" type guy, but i'll say here, now, I have a great deal of conviction that we'll see 129'000 in the 10 year bond futures (dec contract) before we retest 132'275. I think we'll sell off for several weeks, if not several months, and a touch of 127'250 may end up being a conservative call. that we will reach before 2013. And where do I think that money will go? ya. probably into risk assets, like stocks. speaking of stocks, the greek stock market is up over 25% off of it's lows just weeks ago, german bond yields are going up (the euro has been over 85% correlated to the 10 year german bund for YEARS now.), and whats more, bond yields in the weaker southern euro nations is decreasing, which adds a "double whammy" of debt market confluence to reasons that will support the euro. And with book values of some U.S. stocks being so undervalued (many were recently trading at or UNDER their cash value!) the lingering euro fears were all that was keeping an irrational market scared. Because when you want to invest in negative interest swiss and german bonds and have a guaranteed LOSS, rather than invest in a fortune 500 company that is trading under book value which would give you a profit on the liquidiation of assets alone (nevermind if the company actually makes a penny or 2)... something is seriously wrong. It's just too darn much fear. For a problem that is no longer a surprise...hell, at this point, it's a BORE. And one that is not worse, but better, than it was 3 years ago, or 2 years ago, or 1 year ago. Combine all this with the technical signals in the ES (noteworthy period of tight consolidation, following a big volume bull breakout, a tight flag, no retracement to the breakout point, and then further more up), and I think this is stage 1 of a brave new market environment. I think the BEST trade is short the U.S. 10 year bond futures, followed closely by a long in the stock indexs (including of course the ES), and very close behind that is a long in the EUR/JPY. So ya. 105 in the EUR/JPY by wed or thurs of this week. Say 129'175 in the ZN futures by the end of this month, and then even 127'000 by the end of the year, and the ES touches 1500 before it even blinks. I believe last week the market looked up, only to see the sky was not falling at all. And considering fear was so strong that investors would pay money to get a guaranteed fixed income loss, rather than invest money in a company that has more cash in the bank than their stock value is worth... we are going to see a squeeze on positions in equities, bonds, and EUR/XXX currency markets the likes we haven't seen since the euro started this decline around august 2011. ES futures at 1500 this week, and there may not be so much as a speed bump on the way their. I just don't see many other possibilities. I haven't had this much conviction since I decided on getting short german bund yields hit 1.17% at the beginning of summer (they are now at 1.70+ and the german bund is dropping like a rock) Would love to hear what the rest of you are thinking though, if for no other reason than to see if someone knows something that i've just completely overlooked.

I think this is an extremely profound statement that reflects many of the more "depressing" (for lack of a better word) realities of trading, traders, and the trading industry as a whole. of all the many hundereds (thousands?) of trading contests out there... it's possible that only this one, by varengold bank, is actually interested in "discovering" a serious, professional trader", one who has the experience and skill to be able to trade in such a manner that is stable and consistent enough to actually have real investors trust them enough to invest their real money that they likely expect to grow for many years to come. yet so few "retail traders" even question risk adjusted ROI's, or drawdown, etc. It seems that nearly all people who want to become a successful retail forex trader are essentially only interested in maximum returns, and the fact that so few even question why drawdown would be "capped", or would likely be dumbfounded as to why any competition would be judged based on anything other than absolute return! the most obvious conclusion to me would be simply that contest organizers and the various entities who affiliate or sponser them have actually no interest at all in rewarding or even finding legitimate, consistent traders who are likely to be successful for years. It's really just to excite the cheerleading squad for "team trading!" and whats more.... the overwhelming vast majority of people who attempt to trade at the retail level don't have even the most basic understanding of the skills necessary to even have a chance to make a living at this as a career. And finally, it seems that both the retail trading vendor, and the aspiring retail trader, are perfectly happy with this reality. I guess there is a lot more money selling a pipe dream than being a plumber. and I guess most would rather be excited by a bullshit story, than be excited by the reality of learning how to make a great living from home. oh well. more free money for some of us I guess.

Well, as it turned out, that 20 pip swing in the GBP/USD I mentioned earlier was about all it did before taking off for the next major level. Ended up stopping out on that. the NZD/USD worked out slightly better. I'm feeling tired as I ususally do when friday rolls around, so I closed it out a bit early, but peace of mind and a locked in profit (no matter how small) is worth the trade off for me (I am looking forward to my weekend) Not really the best example of A+ trading... as I really underestimated the effect of this new Heli Ben Stimulus. I figured the moves had been mostly priced in going into todays session, but I couldn't have been more incorrect. Fortunately, I bet small going into such counter trend type trades, so the initial losses wouldn't really be of consequence, and I was able to recover it by the end of todays trading. A somewhat slow week over all for me, as I took the first two days off, and when I started on wednesday I was looking at a loss (from a trade that I held on friday, but was stopped out when market opened on sunday). The week stands with about a 1.6% profit, but for my actual trading that I did this week, I did about 2.2% over the past 3 days. Since i'm not carrying anythiung over the weekend this time, I won't have any possibility of having to dig myself out of a hole come market open this next week. I'll try to post some of my weekend analysis if I get around to it. I do hope some of you are finding this thread insightful or helpful. if there are any questions, i'll answer them when next post up.

And now it seems like the NZD/USD is starting to move my way also. might turn out to be a decent finish to the week if these moves can continue.

It's always nice to post a price level, and see the market touch it exactly to the pip, and then turn exactly as anticipated. It's also not often it happens that well, but at very least I can say 1.6206 was the high of the london session thus far, and it was good for about a 20 pip selloff. i'm still holding short, but the trade is starting to look a bit better now.

Well, for todays trading so far, the 5 min bearish candle that was formed immediately after the GBP/USD retested the highs at 1.6206 is the highest volume candle of the day. Generally, seeing a volume spike in a bearish candle after an uptrend can foreshadow a shift in short term market direction. It shows an increasing amount of sellers willing to either exit longs, or enter shorts, at market price rather than at limit. Orders executed at market usually denotes a degree of "need" more than limit orders. And when a market is hitting a new high after several significant bullish days, but suddenly sellers jump to sell when it makes new highs...this is often a signal of possible direction change in the short term. Of course, it's not 100%...but seeing this type of volume and price action gives me further reason to continue to hold my short.

Well, I thought the GBP/USD would be a straight shot down, but it looks like it really did need a retest of the high of the day so far. Now that it hit that, about 4 minutes ago, I do expect a bit of a selloff, however, we I may have to wait until euro news is realeased in about 40 min, or even until the first hour of so of the U.S. session. That being said, it may just continue on up... considering the tight price consolidation we have right around the 6200 level. I'm still short of course, but would like to see greater compelling price action on the GBP/USD to demonstrate a likely move downward. ANd as of right now, i'm not seeing much... EDIT: on 2nd thought, running stops at the daily high might have been exactly what the market needed in order to trigger some larger selling interest. We are still trading in this uninspired 20 pip range, but at least there is a possibility of downward momentum building. not my favorite type of market conditions to trade in, but at this point I have no substantial reason to justify exiting for the small loss that my open positions currently have, so it looks like a bit more waiting around for now.

I think we could see gbp/usd continue to drop at least until 1.6180... from there, not sure...but I could see a relatively smooth drop from 6204 to 6180 for this initial down swing.

Well, the GBP/USD just barely broke the asian session highs, by less than 1 pip, and is dropping fast. if this drop can gain some momentum, this may work out to be a nice opportunity. Of course, this is a very counter trend trade, but I feel for the reasons I listed already that such a trade is justified and does provide a decent opportunity for profit. EDIT: actually, we fell short of the asian session highs by about 2 pips, but it still got close enough to find pending orders around that high, and the selling pressure seems significant there.

With regard to the GBP/USD short potential, I will be paying close attention to any move that retests the most recent high around 1.6206. London will often reverse any trend established during the asian sessions, and of course stops would be at 1.6206 and higher... thus providing any needed liquidity for a larger player to take profits on a long, or get short, with minimal slippage. Fact is, i'm short both markets now, but both are very small, inconsequential size trades. I will increase them should I see a move that breaks the highs of the day so far, but is then quickly reversed on above average volume (tick based volume is not ideal, but it's a good proxy)... best of all if such a situation were to unfold within the first hour or so of londons opening. time will tell.

For tonight, i'm looking at a short on the GBP/USD, and possibly on the NZD/USD as well. Reasons for the GBP/USD are fairly straightforward. First of all, this upswing has gone parabolic this week. There are two cardinal rules to any market move that goes parabolic: 1. A market that moves in a parabolic trajectory is not making a sustainable move. 2. Parabolic moves in markets very rarely "fade away"... Once the parabola is broken, they typically reverse direction without much warning, and with a fairly significant reversal. Another concept that applies well to the GBP/USD is that of market symmetry. When markets move to retest a price at which a major swing originated at, the likelyhood of a short term (or even long term) reversal goes up significantly with S/R levels around that price, than other S/R levels that do not necessarily correlate to a price where a swing previously originated from. Also, the GPB/USD is testing the 1.6200 price, which happens not only to be a major psychological price level, but it also is a price level where market profile concepts show a significant drop off in trading interest around this price in the past. This doesn't mean that a buying exhaustion will take place here, but it does point towards that as being a somewhat more likely outcome than say... a glut of new GBP/USD buyers jumping into the marketplace. Now, points against this short gbp/usd idea are mostly the obvious ones. First off, a new version of QE3 for the USD is not helping the USD gain any real bidding interest. And, we have not yet broken any significant trendline that would further support proper timing of a short entry, as a trendline break would signify the parabolic move up could really indeed be breaking at that moment in time. Of these two factors, the trendline break is the more important of the two for a potential downward move...and i'm not even sure if such a trendline break will occur tonight... however, when a market moves parabolically, the vast majority of the time it ends not with a slow, gentle pullback, but with a sudden, violent retracement or even reversal. Combine this with the GBP/USD nearing a previous significant high, and the decent probability that historically there is a significant drop off in trading interest at the 1.6200 price level, and I think we have a recipe for a potential nice downswing before we continue up (and I do believe up is the more likely resolution to the whole thing) which brings me to the NZD/USD short opportunity. Basically, all the factors I just applied to the GBP/USD can be applied to the NZD/USD... but with one additional factor: The GBP/NZD is coming to a fairly significant support level, and we may get a bit of a bounce from there. In other words, the one currency that the GBP looks like it could see a bit of a bullish move against is the NZD. It's of course not any guarantee of anything, it is however a good enough reason to justify looking for a short in the NZD/USD as well as the GBP/USD.

Turns out someone decided to use their brain when determining the yardstick by which to measure results. a risk adjusted ROR is actually a shit hot way of doing this. it keeps is 100% pure without any arbitrary restrictions and yet gives the answer to the REAL question which is: who can make the greatest return with the least amount of risk. For example, the last 4 weeks I'm up about 9% in my account. but my drawdown from any given day end to the following day end is less than 2%. Now, you could take another guy, and he could have a 99% ROI for the same 4 weeks, but if his drawdown day to day is 40%.... well, I would argue that I'm the better trader, even though I made far less than him in terms of ROI. OF course, if he did a 99% ROI with only an 8% drawdown, I'd say he probably is the better trader. I like it a lot. And I think it would be the perfect solution to this situation. furthermore, myfxbook is already equipped to provide those numbers if i'm not mistaken. this idea has got my vote anyway.