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ForexTraderX

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by ForexTraderX

  1. ForexTraderX
    Well, since the AUD/USD just pushed down below the london session low of 1.0205, I decided to get long the AUD/USD. the primary problem today it seems (besides the new event) was getting in the market a bit too early. At any rate, the trades I have on seem to be moving in the right direction now. If I could keep todays losses to under 2%, It'll feel like a decent save to an otherwise frustrating day.
  2. ForexTraderX
    Well, Draghi's comments regarding the euro have just about killed what was looking like such a nice trade. As I said, a news related catalyst would be likley the only thing that could push this trade against me, and that's pretty much what happened. It's not done yet, but at this point, I'm thinking damage control more than anything else. A bit of a disappointment, but the next hour or so may help push things back my direction. ALthough unless we make a significant reversal in price action, i'll be looking to get out a bit at a time as I find favorable places to do so. Fact is, my bias is still short, as I said unless we could hit into and above the 1.6170 zone, i'm looking for short only, but I never expected price to pull back so deep into that potenntial range. Although it does look to be possibly reversing here, i'm not getting any more invested in this other than to start scaling out. Fact is, if we can get up to 1.6200 and hold that, i'd start looking for long opportunities... we have a very high potential to reverse downwards here, but nevertheless, it's time for me to start looking how to get out of this trade, rather than how to make more with it.
  3. ForexTraderX
    well, looks like the GBP/USD is about to really rip off to the downside.... it's still finding some support at 6105, but rice action and volume, not to mention the bigger picture and longer time fram analysis shows a strong short bias. Almost any way a person looks at it, the GBP/USD short here is probably a good trade. would love to see us push down int 1.6070 pretty quick, so I can take half off, and then let the rest coast down to 1.6045ish.
  4. ForexTraderX
    If we can break and hold below this 1.6110, we have one more minor support trendlin at about 1.6098... after that, nothing really until we retest near the low of the week, at 1.6070ish.
  5. ForexTraderX
    At this point, I think the best thing that could happen would be for disappointing U.S. employment figures or some otherwise bad news for europe. Something that stimulates a risk off rally. So far, not bad, but if we can get a negative U.S. data release, that should do it for this trade... and I'll be able to finish the day with a new equity high for the week.
  6. ForexTraderX
    Well, there was the news release for the GBP... seems there is no major policy change...central bank keeping rates and such at what they currently are. Unfortuantly, I was not keeping up with the headlines to see what expectations really were... usually that type of thing is noticeable if I do a full sentiment analysis. Unforuantly, I didn't do that for this trade... but over all, it's more neutral than anything else. Unless the minutes release says something that materially changes this.... the news over all in this case shouldn't have too much affect on this short trade. Furthermore, it looks like whoever sold out short around 1.6120-1.6134 is defending their short position from around 1.6120. I mean, i suppose any orders could be there to stop the market from moving up, but considering stops were run earlier about an hour after london opened, and the market sold off, it's likley that some of the same sellers are now positioning an additional large block of sell orders at the 6120 zone, preventing price from moiving up to take out their stops. Time will tell if this is somewhat true or not, but from the price action showing over the last few minutes, it seems a likely possibility.
  7. ForexTraderX
    selling seems to be taking over here in the GBP/USD. I posted a chart to show what I"m talking about.... this is a good sign for shorting by the way.
  8. ForexTraderX
    Also, just closed out the entire GBP/AUD short. Again, the original move I was looking for already occured, and this move down from 1.5790ish has not looked like much of an impulse move. Finally, we are hitting a potential support level around 5760. Just not something I'm comfortable with holding as we move into the U.S. session. Again, probably a good trade, but I've alreayd put enough risk out on the line for one day... now it's time for me to dial back and wait for either optimal levels, or for some resolution to the GBP/USD, which is with the trend, and has the 1hr price action to back up my belief in a continued drop in price.
  9. ForexTraderX
    Well, I decided to close out my AUD/USD long trade. we are coming into some possible minor resistance, but more importantly, I was expecting a bigger move by now, and the truth is I said price would get to at least 1.0235... and it did so. I still think a move upwards is more likley than downwards, but I had a pretty good size position for my comfort level, and i'm already short GBP/AUD and GBP/USD... I didn't want to become too reliant on a strong AUD and weak GBP for my day to go well. Also, it IS counter trend trade, and for those, I expect quick resolution without much hesitation. This move for the AUD/USD is taking too long. I'd rather be out and safe than in an worried, regardlesss of the final outcome. At any rate, i'm 100% flat now on aud/usd... pretty much a BE over all on the open positions on AUD/USD. I will look to re-enter possibly around 1.205, or still my ideal is near the low of today. But, other than that, I'm probably down with AUD/USD long for now.
  10. ForexTraderX
    Wow...looking at the 1hr charts on the GBP/USD. I don't often say this, but I can't think of a single reason why anyone would be getting long at this point, or if they are day trading and looking to be out of a GBP trade within the next 24 hours or 50 pips, Again, I think short is kind of a no brainer....at least I feel that way as I stare at this huge 1hr pinbar... of course, the news COULD change that. Not too likley, but other than the upcoming U.K. data releases, I realy can't see any other likley outcome for the GBP/USD other than short to at least 1.0680-1.0660... but more likely down to 1.0640ish.
  11. ForexTraderX
    I'm honestly somewhat doubtful that the GBP/USD will be able to move up much more today, but if it does start moving back up towards its high of the day so far, getting short from 1.6118-1.6126 would probably be a nice level to consider getting a bigger position on.
  12. ForexTraderX
    The problem I now seem to have is the AUD/USD...but, this is where cutting losers off quick and letting winners ride comes into play. I will look to close out most of the AUD/USD long trade if we drop much more. However, the GBP/USD I have no intention of closing, probably not for another 30 pips at least, and then I will let some of it run for another 75-85 pips. Things are looking good now, and I'm completely prepared to get out or in as needed.
  13. ForexTraderX
    Well, it looks like the GBP/USD is now the best looking trade of the bunch. Shouldn't be surprising to me, considering it is with the trend and not counter trend, but nevertheless, earlier price action had AUD/USD looking like the better trade. Now, if anyone looks at a 1 hr chart of the GBP/USD, it's pretty clear that it's about to start selling off during the next few hours. Time to sit back and hold on it seems.
  14. ForexTraderX
    Ok. So, unless the news releases in about 2 hours and 20 minutes really changes things, It looks like that was probably the worst of it. Seems alll trades are likely to move my direction now, but most likley is the AUD/USD, followed by the GBP/AUD, and the GBP/USD is still the least likley to work out, but forom this point now, all looks pretty good.
  15. ForexTraderX
    Alright, i'm loooking to get long here on AUD/USD more aggressively now. It looks like we very well have made a short term bottom. Wouldn't be surprised if we move up from 1.0210 to revisit the high around 1.0240 now.
  16. ForexTraderX
    Well, I may have spoken too soon on that GBP/USD. looked at the charts again, and we could definately bee seeing a top here. I will wait for this 30 min to close, then reconsider. I still will hold a short bias unless we can somehow get to 1.6170+, as I stated earlier, but if we push above 1.6130-40, i'm primarily loooking to scale out, rather than in. Such a move above those prices would be, not in my best interest to continue to hold a full position or consider getting bigger. only smaller.
  17. ForexTraderX
    Well, that strong move up in the GBP/USD may be it for this short GBP/USD trade, at lest for now. that is exactly the type of move that I don't want to be looking to fade at this point in time. Now, if we quickly sell off from here, I may get back in, but for now, I'm leaving it alone, and will let stop out what I already have, but won't be taking any more on the gbp/usd.
  18. ForexTraderX
    Well, as I said earlier that 1.0235-1.0240 could be a temporary stalling point on AUD/USD... it was, and I'm glad I tooke some of my position off at that price. I've re-entered long again at 1.0220, for another move back to the high, and this time, even further. i'm thinking 1.0250 at least.
  19. ForexTraderX
    Well, still to early to tell, but I really like the stall, high volume red candles on a 1 min chart, and the drop that has the GBP/USD topping out around 6122. I think maybe the bigger issue here is i'm trying to be comfortable with taking both a risk on and a risk off trade. not the easiest thing for me to do, but the market and price action are supporting just that idea so far... maybe everything will work out perfectly. doubt it, but maybe.:::shrug:::
  20. ForexTraderX
    I closed part of my AUD/USD long trade out around 1.0233 and 1.0237. Reason is, this is a possible reversal point given that it is the asian session high. I will reload should it drop back down for more, but why carry it all back down if i can take prifts both here and again if it drops.
  21. ForexTraderX
    Seems the GBP/USD is running into som decent offers at the 6120 price. not surprising, but the movement from the low during the previous U.S. session into this level has been aggressive and stronger than I had anticipated. Enough so that I've reduced my position size on the remaining orders, and may cancel the highest order if price doesn't look as I'd like in the next hour or so.
  22. ForexTraderX
    Now that we are 1 minute from london, I'm really thinking the GBP/USD setup for a short here isn't bad. But, maybe not as good as I originally anticipated. What I am sure of, is that the GBP/AUD is the most likley to move downward, but it's hard to say how it will get there. Overall, I still like my trading plan for tonight, but the GBP/USD is the one I'm the least sure of, of the 3 that I have been watching.
  23. ForexTraderX
    that GBP/AUD trade also worked out really well so far also. took profits on it between 5760 for a bit, then more at 5736. I've re-entered a fraction more as we've moved back up, and I'll really look to get short as we approach 5770- and then 5785, depending on what AUD/USD and GBP/USD are looking to do. Also, I still can't tell if we are about to have an overall risk on day, or a risk off day. Though, It does look like GBP/AUD may have peaked out at 5785. Unless the british pound rallies like crazy against the other currencies, the top for today is already in IMO, since I don't see how the AUD/USD could push down much further today given the price action over the last few hours in the asian session. As far as the GBP/USD, we just pushed up to run the previous U.S. session high right around 1.6116, and are now stalling. We hit the europe session highs from yesterday at 1.6125, and 1.6120 should provide some resistance as well, seeing as it was a previous daily low earlier in the week. given where we are coming into london open, and that europe/london often run previous session highs/lows, only to reverse and move the other direction than the initial move that happens during the session, I wouldn't be surprised at all if somewhere between where we are now (1.6117), and 1.6125-6130 is the high of the europe session. however, I will watch price action and volume, to determine if upward momentum is running into a large quantity of supply (sell orders).... thenm, I will get short big time, with tight stops, and very nice risk:reward ratios.
  24. ForexTraderX
    Well, as I said earlier 1.0235 was the minimum that the AUD/USD would push to, and it looks like that was the asian session high. now that europe is open, and london in about 45 more minutes, I actually feel we will see this move higher. Of course I hope we retrace to at least 1.0205 before moving up, so I can get a larger position than the very small one I have now, or ideally, a retest of 1.0185, but regardless, it looks like things are playing out pretty much as I expected. Of course london could change all that, but so far, things look good.
  25. ForexTraderX
    Actually, given the developig price action in the AUD/USD, and a somewhat less clear price action of the EUR/USD, and the lack of strong, signficant selloff in the GBP/USD, I am starting to see a possible emerging theme today of bullish risk markets as we start europe and then the U.S. session. With that in mind, I'm going to be looking to get in a higher risk amount onthe AUD/USD,since of all the markets at this moment, it actually seems to be the most clear with likely direction for the europe session. and, I will probably trend lightly in terms of risk amount and my entries on the GBP/USD... if a small or moderate risk recovery takes shape withthe AUD/USD leading the way, I probably won't get hurt much on theGBP/USD, but no reason to be heavily shorting a market that is going no where. However, since my origional assessment could still play out as overall risk off being in play, the biggest variable for me going into this coming europe session is"are we going to be primarily risk on? orare we going to be more risk off?" once I know that, I will be able to determine more precisely if I will primarily look to get long risk markets like the AUD/USD, or short risk markest like the GBP/USD. the GBP/AUD is still in play no matter what, too many good reasons to see it work out, and either way, it won't be hurt much if at all.
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