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ForexTraderX

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by ForexTraderX

  1. ForexTraderX
    Well, the USD/JPY long didn't work out so well... but still pretty satisfied with what I have on right now. Probably won't be taking any more positions today.
  2. ForexTraderX
    Not exactly sure, but looks like the move i've been stalking for the last day or 2 may be breaking right now. AUD/USD at 1.0170 and moving up strong, other AUD pairs off their lows, and moving up. GOsh, it's always nice when such a thing works out, but still too early to tell. Though, it's looking good from here, for now.
  3. ForexTraderX
    Just took another AUD long, this time against JPY. if USD/JPY is strong, the AUD/JPY should do even better. long from 79.55-79.70
  4. ForexTraderX
    As I said a page or 2 ago (last friday), I'd be looking for a top of the week around 1.5890-1.5930ish.... Well, here's a pic of the high of the week so far (my broker opens earlier than most other brokers, so if you don't see the spike up to 1.5900 on your charts, well, that's why) And from there, we've just been selling, selling selling off.
  5. ForexTraderX
    Also, USD/JPY looks decent as well. Just got long here at 78.45, with a 20-30 pip stop, and a target that will be determined as price action develops. EDIT: actually, right here at 78.35 IS probably the best place to get long today on the USD/JPY. I just took another long here, at 78.35 right now.
  6. ForexTraderX
    Hmmm... actually, this AUD/XXX long trade may work out pretty well. Was reviewing some of the news releases on bloomberg over the weekend, and it turns out that overall sentiment seems to lean toward oversold conditions. Basically, opinions are that even with the rate decrease, the AUD is still the best of the top credit rated soverigens in terms of interest rates and bond yields, etc. In fact, no one else comes close, and because the rate decrease does not take really much away from the fact that AUD is the only place with the economic and financial stability, considering debt as well, and then also rate of return for bonds, that exists in it's class. So, this could be a serious short term bottom, could see a rally of a few hundered pips even. I don't think we'll see as much as some folks do, but say, 80-100? sure, we could absolutly be good for something like that.
  7. ForexTraderX
    Well, maybe the AUD/USD actually. here's a chart of price action and volume just a few moments ago...
  8. ForexTraderX
    Also, of the two pairs, AUD/USD and AUD/CAD, the price action and cross market analysis looks better on the AUD/CAD on both counts. Also even more significant level than for the AUD/USD... but will probably need AUD/USD to bounce a big upwards if we are going to see much more than consolidation in AUD/CAD, IMO
  9. ForexTraderX
    AUD/USD just pushed a few pips below the low of the day, and a decently high volume spike formed on the 15 min chart with a pinbar candle.... i got in a bit longer, but not much. again, overall PA doesn't look great, though the situation and potential strength of the support, not to mention the very tight reward:risk I can take on such an entry, it justifies the risks. entry was taken long at 1.0157
  10. ForexTraderX
    Well, the USD/CAD for a long seems to be the best opportunity for today. The price action in the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD is not looking as good as I would have hoped for at this stage of the week, so despite my bullish personal feelings, price just isn't behaving like I would normally see if it were going to take off. I'm still long, but fully aware of the fact that this is not nearly as good of a long situation as it was last friday when i entered the trades. USD/CAD is good for a long really anywere below 9780, but 9765, 9755, and 9747 (as well as the friday low) are all great places for an entry IMO.
  11. ForexTraderX
    Here's an updated chart of the AUD/USD. As it turns out, they did gun for the lowest level. I should have known that (for reasons i may cover at a later time), but the most important distinction to draw is "the best level" is so far holding well.... here's that chart:
  12. ForexTraderX
    Wow....lots of markets at inflection points here... I just got short the EUR/AUD at 1.2792. very small risk, considering how many other similar (correlated) markets I am trading the same way, but worth a small entry short IMO.
  13. ForexTraderX
    And now, the USD/CAD is making a significant pinbar on the daily chart. Yea, AUD/CAD should be THE trade of the week for along next week, and even USD/CAD won't be a bad long come this sunday/monday
  14. ForexTraderX
    Well, I just got in a big more in both AUD/CAD and AUD/USD. a few pips off the low of each. we'll see. I almost am sure I will be carrying most of these trades (if not all of them) over the weekend. If I was holding a euro pair, I would maybe worry due to all the news and such that has been coming out of europe that can affect the currency price...but other than the euro, there ireally isn't any deep economic instability anywhere, therefore unless a war is declared in those areas over this weekend, the risk associated with holding a trade over the weekend is minimal. Besides if anyone here has a 401k, you hold trades over the weekend all the time. Some people shy away from it, but it still is just a matter of risk assessment. I wouldn't want to hold a euro pair over the weekend, but the rest of the majors, i don't see an issue.
  15. ForexTraderX
    Yea, as things keep moving, I'm seeing the opportunity for an AUD/CAD long trade likely becoming THE TRADE of the week for next week. Reason is, AUD/USD looks like it's coming into the most significant support it'll see from now until parity. I've discussed the reasons for a bullish bias on AUD/USD over the last day or so, so I won't go into much now. But, why AUD/CAD? Well, take a look at a monthly chart of the USD/CAD. It has hit support last month (september), and made a bit of a pinbar type candle. It's not the strongest loooking pinbar type candle, but it is one nevertheless. And, it's on a monthly TF, so that's really makes a difference. Also, look at the 1 hr chart from today on the USD/CAD. we pretty much came to a previous U.S. session low from many days ago, and now bounced up after the NFP prompted selloff. To me, i'm seeing USD/CAD come back upwards to retest the highs of this week, and i'm seeing AUD/USD move upwards to retest at least 1.0275. well, as I like to trade the strongest against the weakest, the AUD/CAD should be the one to set up better than anything else as we start this next week.
  16. ForexTraderX
    And of course, should the AUD/USD or AUD/CAD show additional signs of bottoming out, well, then I'LL get back in for a bit more. By trading around my positions, as price action changes and develops, but by also having a bigger picture outlook on things, it allows me to pick and choose my spots, as I try to usually catch a turning point within just a few pips of the top or bottom. And believe it or not, it's possible to make a living picking tops and bottoms this way. Not sure who it was that said "you can't pick tops and bottoms"... but I don't think they were much of a trader. Even if your trading with the trend, as I am on the GBP/USD short trade, I'm still picking tops and bottoms. I'm picking the top of a retracement in a larger bearish swing, and i'm selling at that point.
  17. ForexTraderX
    Well, price looks like it's gonna push down at least a bit more for both the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD. 1.0186 is next up in AUD/USD... I just lightned up my short position in both markets, as I don't see any reason to carry the full load downwards if that's the way the markets are gonna move next.
  18. ForexTraderX
    Also, given everything I'm seeing with multiple major currency markets coming into significant S/R levels....some even coming into multi-month support or resistance, I'm gonna go ahead and say if we haven't already seen the high of the GBP/AUD, then the first part of next week (say, the first 48 hours of trading), we will see the high of the week for GBP/AUD between the price of 1.5890-1.5925. That's about a 45 pip range, but I really feel strongly about a rally in the AUD, and a selloff in the GBP. Furthermore, this level is one that stands " on its own" in the GBP/AUD market. One that is clearly seen by anyone looking at a daily chart as a price level of previous support, and levels like that often act as resistance when price returns back to them a long time later... particularly if the move up towards the level is over-extended (which this one is.) Here is a chart of the possible resistance levels as we come into this next week. There are 4 of them. I will be looking to get short at each and every one of them, for a move down to at least 1.5740 (that's between 150 pips and 200 pips, depending on which resistnce level holds) Also, I may discuss a strategy that could give a 5:1 or even 10:1 reward:risk opportunity in the AUD/CAD, if it sets up just right.
  19. ForexTraderX
    Here's a chart of that cool AUD/CAD opportunity that is setting up right now...
  20. ForexTraderX
    Taking a harder look at AUD/CAD, i'm noticing we've had some really critical, multi-year support that we are coming up to...in fac,t it's been support or resistance going back at least to Nov of 2010. We are just blow parity for the first time in about 5 months, and the A/C is fairly over-extended in this drop, having sold off nearly 300 pips in only 7 days, without a single "up" day. There are several price levels i'm looking at, actually, right here at 9970-75 is good. then better still down at 0.9956 is the low for may. Then we have a year ago october low at 0.9939, and then a multi year low at 9917. With the fact that this market has made an incredibly steep drop off in the last 7 days, and is coming into an area that has seen support for over a year now, and the last time it was at this price level, it rallied well over 600 pips.... well, It think it's safe to speculate on a bounce. I already am, that's for sure. I think 1.0050-1.0100 is a really likely target. I'll be looking to take some profits probably just before that area, as well as near the top of it, and maybe a final target just before 1.0150. This is probably going to be the best opportunity coming into this next week, IMO.
  21. ForexTraderX
    GBP/USD should really push straight through downward towards 1.6140-1.6090. 1.6140 was the high of 10/3, 1.6104 is the U.S. session lows from 10/4, 1.6094 is the europe session lows of 10/4, and 6080 is the asian session lows, with 6071 and 6066 being the lows of wednesday and thursday. Not to mention 6100 is a major psych number (as 6200 was today) so, considering the concentration of session and daily lows between 6066 and 6104, there's about a 38 pip range with plenty of opportunity for price to bounce. Personally, I probably wont take many long trades there (if any) due to the fact that we are very high in price, a parabolic move was how we came into this previous multi-month high, and now that parabolic move is broken. The rule of thumb is, when a parabolic move breaks, plan on it retracing back to the origin point. (in this case down anywhere from 5800-5300) That's not to say we couldn't double top out up towards 6300, or that the drop back down to 5800 is a guarantee. But, unless and untill we see a day that can decisively push price upwards (like yesterday did. that was decisive), we have seen a strong, deep retracement, but it would take at least 1 additional strong day upwards for me to step back and strongly consider the possibility of further upward movement At very least, I'm looking to take some profits and make this a risk free trade by around 6145-6150. I don't anticipate much problem in doing that.
  22. ForexTraderX
    Position Summary: Ok, here is what I'm in right now: GBP/USD short from around 1.6185-1.6200 GBP/AUD short from between 1.5820-1.5850 AUD/USD long from around 1.0205 - 1.0215 AUD/CAD long from around 9973-9980
  23. ForexTraderX
    Yea, either the AUD/CAD for a long, for the GBP/USD for a short is probably the best, gbp/usd is great because it's going with the trend to a degree...the uptrend went parabolic, and is now broken, this is a much deeper retracement to that broken move than I had thought, but it is an A+ setup IMO. I was short from about 1.6205, covered too early for a little profit, and got back in bigger now.
  24. ForexTraderX
    Also, the GBP/USD again looks good to short. I think we'll move down to at least 1.6140-1.6130. here's a chart with some explanation of why I think it's good, etc. Also, the AUD/CAD looks great for a long right now, as does the GBP/AUD look for a short. Actually there's a whole lot of markets coming to some pretty critical points. The AUD/CAD long might be the best of all that i've seen this week.
  25. ForexTraderX
    Well, not my favorite way to end a week, but profit is profit. Wanted to post up right now regarding an opportunity i'm seeing right now in the AUD/USD. This is something I spoke about yesterday, with regards to the AUD/USD really being close to some very critical levels. Actually, the AUD/USD pretty much went pip for pip with where I was thinking it would in terms of potential targets. Only problem was, it never really came back down to a price that I really wanted. However, looks like about, oh, 10 minutes ago, we pretty much dropped down to match yesterdays U.S. session lows, at around 1.0204. Well, the AUD/USD dropped down to 1.0205, and I just got long at 0207 and 0211. I have a larger order down around 1.0186 (yesterdays low), and then one more at the low of the support from a few months ago, around 1.0165. These are all price levels that will have a disproportionately large amount of orders around them (both buy and sell orders), so the liquidity will be there for larger players to get in and out without pushing the market against them with their very large orders. Anyway, I'll basically be taking stabs at the AUD/USD to the longside anywhere from 1.0210, down 50 pips to about 1.0160. After that point, well, I'll probably be looking to get short as we push towards 1.00, where again I would consider getting long. Just wanted to point this one out, since we are litterally just a few pips away from what could be the low of the next couple days in the AUD/USD. (though I tend to think 1.0185 or 1.0165 will be more likley. Either one of those would not surprise me at all if they were the low for 150-200 pips or more. In fact, i'd be somewhat surprised if we didn't bounce at least 100 pips off of one or the other)
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