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bakrob99
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Everything posted by bakrob99
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I think that the volatility is about as low as it gets. And the $ticks 20 day average of Highs and Lows show that extreme $ticks are now at +969 and -889 That is very low. As well, there has been a lot of accumulated trades occur this past week at these highs - so a pullback "might" be in store. And the targets I spoke about are not very large in scope. My trading won't really change except to the extent that if and when I get in a short I"ll be trying to hold it longer and if and when I get long I'll be having a tighter target.
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Mr Negotiator, Can you tell me when you decide to change your Composite charts - order under what conditions. The last set of CLVN's and CHVN's are starting to make me keep track of them again. My own work generating these profiles using my own developed indicator had mixed results but the values on your recent charts have been very indicative of inflection points that actually work. I understand that you use IRT to generate these babies. Does the program do so automatically? (As an aside I once did a demo of IRT but didn't like the user interface - I may have to revisit it.)
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I think we're going considerably lower. I'd like to see 1392 get tested and if we get thru the support in that zone we've got 1378.75 zone for later in the day. I am still keeping in mind the historical observation that the market often puts in a low on the Thurs or Friday before OEX week, then rallies into it.
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I once did a week long test with a firm specializing in program trading. The salesman was trying to get me to sign up - and I was telling him that I followed the program trading - but that I didn't see how I could incorporate it into my trading decisions. A little while later - I mentioned that as I was long and th emarket was not going anywhere I said to him - "It would be great to have a program buy hit about now". He said " Just a minute, I"ll be right back" , and then about 15 seconds later a big buy program hit. He came back and said " How was that?". Then I heard some discussion in the background - and he later admitted to me that his boss was angry and told him not to do that again. I said "Look - don't do anything for me that your not supposed to".. but I thought - what in the world is going on here and how does this thing work? It's a murky world - the program trading. For the most part it pushes the market in the same direction I am trading. The ones that bug me are when they hit with a buy program and then follow up with a sell program and you don't know whether to get out or stay in or whatever.
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Closed right on the Peak Volume Price (VPOC). NQ has closed for 3 days in a row with the VPOC being within a point of 2718. Getting set for a breakout of this range .... MAYBE tomorrow.
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Or a close below a moving average like the 10 SMA (which is very similar to the trendline idea),
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I can only speak for myself but I gave up on those below the chart indicators when I decided to start making money.
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Any indicator that is derived from Price can not possibly lead it. The only time you can have a "leading" oscillator is on a divergence.
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ES now within 1 tick of IBL - NQ thru it. I am out here. Very nice short setup. Perhaps too early to exit but summer trading and all with very low volumes - take it when you get it is my rule. As I posted early this AM, expecting new lows today. Just didn't expect as strong a rally before.
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We could not take out that high. Delta has been strongly negative since 11:00 EDT. At least a move down to IBL and probably lower. Perhaps much lower.
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Good going. You got that right.
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Which trend is up ? The Thurs or Friday BEFORE OEX week often makes a new low. Just something I keep in my journal.
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Knight BLOWS UP with Algo Trading Software
bakrob99 replied to bakrob99's topic in Automated Trading
Interesting article on the whole Knight issue and how it affects the market, Interesting that all this buying in 45 minutes did not drive the market to an extreme. See: Knight's Berserk Algo Bought $2.6 Million Worth Of Stock Every Second | ZeroHedge This link explains what actually happened: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/explaining-knightmare -
Out of my ES long. Nice price action for me today in NQ and ES.... sort of a natural hedge. Off to the boat. It's summer after all.
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Expensive insurance.
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Holding a long in the ES is easier if you're making money in a short in NQ.
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Strangely I find myself short the NQ while still long the ES. Slight change in plan. Still plan on sailing.
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MY plan is to hold on to this long until the ES fill s its gap. Then go sailing.
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Tight but down days market is selling off in morning, rallying in afternoon, Up days - rallying in morning selling off in afternoon. Summer trading. Go with flow working well. I am long off the bottom here which I am thinking is counter trend. Do you have any insight as to where the market might be moving next given your nice composite chart and all???
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I understand that as I have written a conservative estimate ... 1000's of strategies in TS (only found 2 that worked over time). But the report clearly shows that you are not exiting before the close and I thought you were discussing a daytrading system
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Re-reading this post what is really laughable is my spelling of laffable (sic).
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I absolutely agree with this. The key is always reading the market based on market generated information which is a tough task at any time -but particularly tough when you have a position on. Trailing a stop behind a bar which closes above the high of a prior bar has worked well for me as a money management technique to stay in a trend. My point is - you have to use something other than your gut to manage your trade and the best traders do this well.
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Thank you for your ideas and comments. However - it seems to me that the real issue is not credit worthiness. Of course, credit worthiness is a mandatory condition - but both these companies were employing fraudulent money management (shuffling) tactics which were undiscovered until too late. It's the access to the customer's funds which need to be secured, not the management of them. I believe that the the exchange should hold a fiduciary responsibility for these funds as they are the body which determines the amount of margin required to support trading on their exchange. CME as an example - has demonstrated the ability and indeed willingness to manage funds in this manner. Customer's funds should also earn interest which could be managed by the exchange. Finally - there should be a responsibility by government agencies which regulate these issues to guarantee any funds misappropriated in this manner. It is my understanding that in Canada - the customers of MF Global Canada did not lose any money - and the same with PDF Global Canada as these funds are secured . This insurance is paid for by the Companies and I suppose that the interest earned on the margin deposits could be used to pay for it. You case for a Top 10 Accounting firm is laffable I am sorry to say. Ask the shareholders and debtors of Enron, and so many others which had top 10 auditors.
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Don't kick yourself. Instead just come up with some money management rules that work for you that allow you to stay in the trend. That is one of the biggest challenges in trading ... exiting well according to plan (maybe THE biggest) It is the difference between just profitable trading and VERY profitable trading.
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The way I see it, you were getting in a little earlier than the RTH Open and better priced. The Open is ALWAYS choppy, but you had a good position which wasn't threatened. On the 5Min chart there was only 1 bar which had its low taken out and then by just 1 tick with no volume. The market had rallied above the opening swing and never looked back until it got to 1400. That is key resistance and attracted MAJOR selling volume. That is why I am short at 1400. and looking for a substantial move back down.