bakrob99

Still in a downtrend even after taking into account this bounce yesterday. I am expecting a few more lows to be tested and watching 1402 area to see if support comes in. We have been nicely one time framing on the 30M chart and I will watch to see if this continues and will continue to hold shorts until the 30m stop OTF. By the way, when it is behaving like this the 30M VPOC is solid support. It is marked on the attached chart by the orange color.

Do yourself a favour. Take a chart - any timeframe and without looking at the price action, randomly draw some horizontal trendlines on it. (It's best if you can make the price invisible - then turn it back on again) Now study how many times prices respect these trendlines. When I have done this - it has revealed that we see random lines act as support and resistance frequently. So keeping this in mind - are you very certain that the reaction at "pivots" is better than random. If so, how do you know? Is your belief based on fact or gut feel?

This implies that you have an account large enough to manage 2000 contracts. An account that size would typically be owned/managed by someone who was familiar with accepting risk and managing it in order to derive substantial profits. So I think there would have been opportunities to profit prior to 20 seconds before the close. Having said that - your statement suggests that there is nothing to be gained trading futures with a known target unless that target is very close in terms of time and price.

Can't say based on the info provided. If your account is 7 figures, you'd be better off in Tbills On the other hand, if you're saying that win rate is useless information without considering others factors - I agree completely.

Significant divergence here between NQ (lower high) and ES (Higher High) at 14:30 EDT

Maybe you should have one made up and try it.

Why would you want to give it to them? Would you think they would help the market reach the target early? Or would they be fighting the move? The more that people found out about it, what would the effect on price action be? Anything?

You could use statistics to determine mean reversion probabilities. Friday's LOW is finding buyers in NQ.

I think the ES may find some support around 1407.

Unfilled gap at 2763.50 in NQ logical target. Of course - there are lower ones too. Good call dB... Managed to get short at 2776.75 and again at 2776.25, There is a 161.8% fib extension at the unfilled gap too.

So when the market is trending up like it has been for weeks, and the "known" 1420 or higher target is in mind, what prevents us from following exactly a strategy like that as if we had the future newspaper? This is the point that I had in mind when I started the thread - that having a future target which can be based on many different technical or fundamental factors, and the DISCIPLINE to trade in its direction is the key to building profitable and sizable positions. Ever since the 1320 low test and rally up almost 100 handles - trading intraday, on short timeframes, without overnight positions - it is hard to do as well as a position trader might have done had he entered long near the 1320 lows one month ago and held on to it. Possibly adding contracts as it closed highers. Intraday - faced with narrow ranges and choppy price action - much tougher going since then with many more entry and exit decisions. I posted in another forum about 3 or 4 weeks ago that I thought 1420 would be hit fairly shortly. And while we haven't gone that far - we've got quite close and there's still certainly time left in this most recent swing to hit 1420 and much much higher. Reviewing my results since that post - I would have done much better to just enter and hold and add as it traded into profit. This concept - but on a daily basis often plays out when you realize around 10-10:15 am that a trend day in underway and you out of a position with a small profit but missing the bigger move. The key is to get in - stay in - and add ... not scale out. Many intraday traders lose on the trend days fading the move. This no longer happens to me. I welcome trend days and have strategies to play them which I have posted occasionally. But mostly I am exiting and re entering and in almost all cases - holding the original entry AFTER one has evidence that a trend day is in place - would produce more profits.

Sadly no. So your point is that even having perfect knowledge in advance is not really a help in terms of making money from it in the futures market?

Be my guest. Throw another scenario at it.

I am assuming the paper said it closed at 1460. It doesn't matter which price it is. If it said it closed at 1360 How would that help? You'd have to make the same but opposite decisions to take advantage of the short side. In my mind- it's similar to the problem you face when a TRENDDAY comes along after days of consolidation. You "know" it's going to close higher - how to take advantage of that. The best way if to get on board small and start building an hold on. Start with a trailed stop loss which becomes a trailed profit exit. As for your risk management - exactly right. Having perfect knowledge of price at the future date (with the exception of options strategies as was pointed out earlier could be designed to take advantage of this knowledge ) still poses risk management challenges.

You start at the open at 1411 with 1 contract. Price moves 5 pts in your favour. Add 1 contract. Trail stop to BE on 1st contract. Price moves 5 pts in your favour. Add 1 contract. Trail stop to +5 on first, BE on 2nd. Price moves 5 pts in your favour. Add 1 contract. Trails stop to +10 on 1st, +5 on 2nd, BE on 3rd. According to your scenario - ( market rapidly moving in your favour) I think you'd do pretty. well.

I respect your right to your opinion - but I think you may be missing the point. The real answer I think that will come out is that even if you know with a certainty what the price will be in the future - to take advantage of that information still requires that you make a reasonable trading entry decision using normal techniques which will allow you to hold for more profit and build a position, increasing size as the position becomes more profitable. The reason is simple: If you went all in at the first opportunity you might discover that you could not withstand a normal market pullback against your position. So, in order to "solve the riddle", you will have to start small and build as the position gains profitability but still trailing a stop to protect losing your profits. Any other way - and you would run the risk of ruin. The lesson may be that to be a Supertrader and really make some money you need to start small and build positions. If you don't agree - you could perhaps mention another method which I have overlooked.

I just as easily could have posed the question about an intraday close. How does KNOWING what the close will be help you at the open? You still have the same problem - You need to have an entry strategy or trade small enough that you can withstand any move against you (unless its the Flash Crash day !).

The Binary option is a good one ... But notice how having perfect knowledge only goes so far to help in the decision. I think it comes down to Money Management. I think I'd go long with 1 contract in the Futures and enough margin to cover a substantial move against. Then as and when the account gained in value to warrant another contract, add 1 to it and trail a stop). As time and price moved in your favour - add another. Build a position BUT notice this wold not guarantee that you could withstand a move against. The OPTIONS may be the only "safe" way to play this.

1. I enjoyed your rant about the Father thing. 2. I misunderstood your entry technique - I had thought you were waiting of r apullback equivalent to some MAE calulcaiton - but I guess your idea is to go ALL IN AT THE OPEN USING A MARKET ORDER with a stop equal to the MAE calc?

Good point, How would the knowledge influence you if you ONLY HAD the futures account to manage?

Sp even having knowledge in advance is not helpful. You would wait until it was very close to Sept 20 and what if on that date it opened at 1460? What would you do then?

1 NO prize. 2. What if you weren't filled as it rallied off the open?

Okay BUT what if between today and the Sept 20 close the market sold off 100 points? The increase in volatility would drive up the value of those put options you were on the hook for, right? And the calls would be worthless.

Thanks for the chart. 1426.50 is the key reference for me right now ... but with today being OEX day I'm looking more to trade the NQ and stay out of the potential slop and algo in the ES. Will be interesting if we can get some momentum again today. Overnight trading is thin but still pointing higher.

How would you trade it if you knew what the ES would be at September 25th 2012. Let's say a recent time traveller accidentally left the business section from his newspaper dated Thursday September 20, 2012. There was no other references to the prior week's or days. How would that knowledge assist you in making money? What strategy would you employ to maximize your profit? Does perfect knowledge about the future price help you in your immediate decision? Scenario 1: Let's say you discovered this today and decided to buy the open and hold on. And then discovered that today was a down day and your out of pocket $1000 at the close. Then what do you do.