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bakrob99
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Everything posted by bakrob99
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10:38 EDT Counter trend trade of the week. LONG 1397.25 Stop 6 ticks Basically, I see evidence of buying at the IBL. Admittedly 1396 is my support and we haven't got there yet so I'm probably early. I'll either hold on for a while or be out before this post gets read. UPDATE 10:50: stopped
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These are excellent points. It's all about context. In short term day trading, when you're in a trade for 10 to 60 minutes, I have found that trailing a stop is only successful after you get a breakout bar (or breakdown for shorts) with a higher close above the entry bar. Then - if the market starts making higher highs you can move your stop up. But in most of my trades, exiting at a target price or logical prior high (or low) is a good exit choice while leaving room for the trade with your risk reduced on the trailed stop.
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Having said short... I must also accept that we are at support and so far showing signs of buying. My 30min longer term (2 week) shows possible upside rotation. If the support fails then a test of prior lows is in sight.
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Well, it's a first for me. I didn't have to change either my RTH High or the RTH Low this AM on the NQ as they were EXACTLY the same as yesterday'. With the open, close and the VPOC all within 1 point in the middle it was certainly a day to buy the low and sell the high. This rangebound market will move when t breaks out of here. And I'm looking at the VIX which has started trending up and thinking ... short (but at the highs).
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Page 2 (continued)
And you never ever know which trade will work out. Some will. Some won't. You need to have your losers MUCH smaller than your winners. And you need to have SMALL losers. The reason is that large losers will screw up your emotional makeup and keep you from either re-Entry or taking the next signal.
If your rules are too precise - they won't get you in the next move because the market is always slightly different. I can tell you that ghe price action of these moves today are quite a bit different than they were 2 years ago. Your entry rules have to evolve and keep changing to meet the market change,
It is your ability to develop your MENTAL EDGE that will make you money.
You could read the best book (out of about 100 that I wasted my money on) on trading written by Chris Shea called LICENSED TO PROFIT. It is all about how you need to think about trading as a business.
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I noticed your post regarding New Traders being more interested in Entry Setups than other masrket considerations. I just wanted to tell you that I shared that belief when I first started. But my experience of the past 6 years of trading the ES and other futures markets shows that this is not where you should be spending most of your efforts.
The key for me has been to develop a flexible (repeat FLEXIBLE) not cast in stone criteria for buying or selling the market and then knowing when to take a small loss. And then being willing to hold on for as much as the market is willing to pay on the winners.
see next PM for the 2nd part of this message
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I still think the NQ is going to fill. update: 6 ticks on NQ is Close enough for govt work. (me too)
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OK...OK ... I'm out .... Also got short the NQ which was nicer. Done for day now. Short bias kept me from making a poor long entry so it was all good.
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Still short and expecting NQ to drive down to gap fill and bring ES with it
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Finally ! It's moving and went down enough for me to scale out 1/2 and hang on to the rest.
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Good going. Not the easiest day for me as I am cautious on Mondays. Decided not to take the early short and regretted it. Did have a nice long but now I'm short and wondering why. There's evidence of buying but price is not moving up and this can lead to big selloff. We'll see. 50-50 now. UPDATE over 1/2 way thru a 30min bar and we have only 6000 contracts on it. No one is here. Hello !
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13:46 EDT ... Feels really heavy to me. Possible major sell off in the works. Short now from 1412.50 and trying to hold, possible add to it. Might be wrong - but if I'm right it will really gain momentum to the downside and test Friday's lows. UPDATE 30min later ... man, now I don't care whether it goes up or down. Just move somewhere!
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Humbling experience posting one's thoughts. Obviously we should have used the 1400 area as a target . Chasing price is NOT in my plan. Time to walk the dog.
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Basically, Neg et all, I think you're really talking about a lack of volume while the markets climb up a wall of worry. Check this article out for a very interesting study on S&P gains and losses during periods of low and high volume (relatively). Why Volume Matters - The UnBearable Lightness Of Bear Market Rallies | ZeroHedge
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You;re right that there's not a large range but I tighten my stop and increase size during these periods to make the $$$ continue to flow. It's rare on the trades which work if I have much MAE (NQ maybe 3 -4 ticks, ES 1 or 2) so have a tight stop and see what works. It's all about taking money out of the markets while providing liquidity and not trying for the big home run. When the markets start running again - we'll have to use larger stops and smaller size.
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Had a great chance to re enter my NQ long at 2752 but passed on it due to my "down" bias. Actually should have just taken it with the tight stop I used before ... as the ES was giving very good indication of moving higher especially with the price action
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ES looks too choppy for me to enter short here. I am waiting for bigger rally. Lots of buying interest keeping me out. Flat all markets now.
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Out of NQ at 2752 and long from there Here's my entry chart
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The NQ short is nice ... but the ES has been choppy ... I didn't take an entry short in ES (1398 was the choice) but hanging onto NQ.
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In the ES I think 1400 might hold and provide something to lean on for the short. NQ a little less clear.
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Welcome. I show targets below that I am anticipating. NQ 2740 area. ES 1392 Will patiently be stalking a short after the RTH opens up. Premarket trading continues to be very good. It is quickly becoming my preferred time to trade. Less algos and crappola going on.
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Thanks for your comments. I take issue with the claim that this has been 100% effective remedy measure for policymakers. It certainly wasn't for Thailand and Mexico in the late 1990's. Studies suggest that the effectiveness of devaluation depends upon the market perception of the country devaluing. If it is perceived like Britain - it will be effective, like Mexico - probably not.
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FYI, IMO It's not about calling perfect trades and staying in for the perfect target. It's about taking a probability and holding onto your winners and cutting your losers. Any entry you made at 1402 today would have paid you nicely. Cut the losers - hold the winners.... you will make $$ End of story
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Doors ? or DAYS ? Are there doors I don't know about?
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ES 30M Still one time framing but it's at my target so I am taking profit here at 1402.