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bakrob99
Market Wizard-
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Everything posted by bakrob99
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Breakeven Problems (no Run-up or DD Values)
bakrob99 replied to Firefly's topic in Automated Trading
The way I read your code the first condition will always be greater than the second so it will exit you immediately. Use a PRINT STATEMENT to the EasyLanguageOutPutBar to veridy the values of your variables. Example: PRINT(Barnumber," Date ",date," Time ",time," Value1 ",Value1," AverageTrueRange(Length) ",AverageTrueRange(Length)); -
You're certainly not overtrading anyway.
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Breakeven Problems (no Run-up or DD Values)
bakrob99 replied to Firefly's topic in Automated Trading
What else would you expect it to do? As shown, there are no other ways to exit the trade than at breakeven. -
Target1 = FALSE is changed once the first target has been reached to Target1=TRUE, so that the next target(2) can be processed and Target1 will not take off any more contracts.
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Here is the BEST CASE SCENARIO: Let's say you risk 2% of account size max per trade, and you have 10 trades per day. (In my opinion, any more and you are risking overtrading... unless you are using an ultra-scalping strategy). Assume 70% win-loss rate, with 20% scratch trades, 30% losers, and 70% days profitable. And here's the key and biggest number of all, the Avg Winner vs Avg Loser. Assume your average winner is 1.5 x bigger. Also, assume you will stop trading after 3 losses in any day (3 out of 10). On your best days you would achieve a winning percentage of 8% of account size, Worst days you would be -7% of account size. Average day somewhere in the middle , say 2-3%. So Monthly I think it would work out to a winning percentage of 30% per month net. THIS IS THE BEST CASE SCENARIO. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now the WORST CASE SCENARIO. Change the stats to a winning percentage of 60% and an Avg Winner vs Avg Loser of .75 The numbers dramatically change. Your best days would be about 2-3% of account equity and the worst days would remain at -7%. So your monthly gain would be near breakeven. My experience suggests that the more scratch trades I take while trying to hold on to runners for a large gain IMPROVES my Avg Win vs Avg Loss ratio and ultimately improves my monthly results. For me, the key is to do whatever you can to hold onto winning trades until there is an "obvious" place to exit or a significant gain R:R over 2x has been achieved. An added advantage to holding onto runners is it keeps you out of making trades while in the position which often can be losers (unless you are adding to it).
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#1 Mistake would be listening to this.
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Seriously, you guys are doing far too much thinking.
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If you think there is a platform out there that at some time doesn't have some issues, then please PM me cause I have some land in Florida that I'd like to sell...
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One problem with "Just getting in" is that it is not a trading strategy that lends itself to performance measurement. Without a rules based concept, how are you going to know the probabilities associated with the entry. If you are studying profiles, I have noticed that when 3 or more contiguous letters occur, you can safely play the breakout from either side of this "box". This concept is discussed further at Cisco futures.
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Then... whatever PLOT # (condition) made the BLUE dot, give it a separate PLOT# name and set it to the wider width.
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Why don't you just change the settings of the SHOWME indicator to a wider WIDTH? FORMAT --> STYLE --> WIDTH
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Seriously - if you are thinking of trading gaps go to this site: The Gap Guy - Gap Guy Blog
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Neural Networks: Myths and Reality by Dima Vonko
bakrob99 replied to Tradecision's topic in Trading Articles
Michael was selling 100 copies of his neural network base system which I see has been removed as he has sold all of them that he will release. (I think he was selling them for $3000 if memory serves me right). However, he did some coding which you can se at: http://www.breakoutfutures.com/Newsletters/Newsletter1203.htm This is an EasyLanguage structure for neural network software which you can play around with and gain some insight into its structure. -
Neural Networks: Myths and Reality by Dima Vonko
bakrob99 replied to Tradecision's topic in Trading Articles
checkout http://www.breakoutfutures.com -
With all due respect, that's bit like saying you will get around to figuring out how to put gas in your car when you run out.
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Sign up for a free 5 day trial at IOAMT.COM (Institute of Auction Market Theory). They are a friendly bunch and you will learn a ton in a short time.
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Why oh why, just because you have been unable to put together a winning strategy with the discipline to trade it, do you then leap to the conclusion that no one can? Please explain that bit of (il)logic to me.
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[important] New Moderation Rules!! - PLEASE READ
bakrob99 replied to Soultrader's topic in Announcements and Support
I wonder if trying to moderate the posts is going to end up throwing the baby out with the bath water. Who's been upset by the posts? Is there a lack of participation recently that I am not aware of? I find this forum much more sensible and "friendly" than most. I personally wouldn't change it. -
I would be more concerned with the few number of trades in the sample rather than getting all worked up about the T-test. Is it not possible to get more data and more trades - say at least 100. Forty seven is not enough to draw the conclusions you woiuld like to draw in my opinion.
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MY experience suggests that the cost for slippage on both markets (YM and ES) is similar... even though you might think that the YM would be better with a smaller value ticksize, you can get many more ticks slippage than the ES. Mind you, this is for relatively small size trading (less than 10 lots). Larger sizes would be benficial to trade the ES. On the other hand, for Limit orders I find the fills are more assured on the YM because it is more likely that price will trade through your limit price. In the ES, where I trade 2 - 5 contracts, the Limit orders I place get filled 75% of the time even if the price does not trade through them as normally my limit order is out there for a while in advance of the price retracement.
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Multiple Profit Targets for Multiple Contracts
bakrob99 replied to palmcarl's topic in Automated Trading
Your Strategy will NOT be doing a Stop and Reverse entry because you have a test for Marketposition. So your marketposition if Long (per your example) will be = 1 and the Short will not trigger. -
CQG is high end software for trading specializing on market profile.
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Why Market Depth is Useless As an Indicator
bakrob99 replied to UrmaBlume's topic in Technical Analysis
Hi James, Have you created an indicator for that? If so can you share the ELD? Thanks bakrob99 -
Here's a name. FRED. Very good indeed. Do everything that FRED does.
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[important] Multiple Accounts Prohibited
bakrob99 replied to Soultrader's topic in Announcements and Support
That is a very good idea !!