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bakrob99
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Everything posted by bakrob99
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Here's what I'm seeing.
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Very large upside Median Line which price is reacting to quite accurately. Would not be surprised to see a strong rally out of these lows. Watching - Stalking. Need to take out 86.25
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Yuup. That's the question.
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There is a very prominent LVN at 1296.75 which stopped the market dead in its tracks on that last pop. If we sell off sharply due to lower NFP numbers (150K / 8.1%expected) then I will be watching for a snap back rally after the open. If we pop on slightly better numbers then the short will be much higher up. Either way, I don't think longs or going to want to hold onto their positions over the weekend.
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So let me get this straight. Rather than help everyone by trying to develop a concept in this thread in public, you want to take it offline and keep "the good stuff" all to yourself. Does that about sum it up?
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Why didn't you use the BPM12 contract which is basically the same as the GBPUSD the system was based on?
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If we get thru 1311.50 then I'm expecting the NVPOC at 1315 to be tested and 1326 higher
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I traded the VWAP using it as key support or resistance for 2 years, not entirely successfully and now I usually use it as a target. I prefer to trade from the Standard Deviation 1st or 2nd band back to the VWAP, and if momentum carries it throught othe other side. I use order flow and delta to form my opinion on entry probability. I did fade the VWAP today... but scalped out of it after I saw a long setup occur for me at 1303. I didn't take that one as I had to walk the dog, but on my return I see it went to the other side of the extreme. I had a hunch at the lows today that all the sellers had entered and we had a possibility of a big rally as it had moved down so fast without any opposition. These moves are great if you can stay in them. I'm looking to come back to the middle again near the peak volume price and chop around for a while before the market participants agree on a direction.
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Man, it's deja vu all over again (same as yesterday). VWAP target and possible short. Market pulls back to VWAP and finds sellers and guys traders taking profits. It's a beautiful thing.
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Saw the 1312 short ... then missed it and watched. These days if you miss the intial move on these thrusts it's tough to find a decent place to enter into the downtrend. I have developed a technique which I am still only using occasionally. Too bad cause it would have worked really well today. Bought the bounce off 1300. (several times) Got short at 1303. Now watching. That's it for me.
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My VWAP was at 1317.24 ... standard Tradestation which uses Date change .. close enough for me. My key reference I was looking at was the 1316.75 Swing High which had held for a number of bars. The next one was 1317.25 which was not taken out. So, the VWAP was right there and I expected lower rotation today as we're still trending down. I'm looking for 1308.25 to see if we spring off of it.
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VWAP here at 1316.75 ish ... Good spot to take profit.
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So when you say +16k you mean that the Cumulative Delta is Less Negative on the lower low? or more negative? Regardless, it look like we're gonna get someupmove out of this puppy now. 1310.75 is long for me.
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No. I buy areas which I have shown here in green shades or sell areas that have red shades. However, I take into account where the market is in relation to the VWAP and its standard deviations, and when aggressive buying occurs off a low and the market has roated from SD+2 to SD-1 I will take the trade back in with a traget of the VWAP. It also help if price action is originating off one or more of the Key ref areas I track (see above post) is support. My stop is below the swing low and usually is 6 ticks. My reward is variable and usually on a swing like this considerably more than the risk.
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YES. sorry for the confusion RTH High, RTH LOW, Highest Vol Price, VWAP close etc. is what I record. I have posted a chart which shows on the white arrow my buy zone at a price 1310.25 after the string of strong buying shown at 14:50 with Bright green colors and the orange is the VPOC of that 5Min bar. With this volume supporting that (what I call) Buy Zone below it, any retrace to that area is a buy. The question is how far can we expect it to move which was the subject of my prior post.
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One of my daily pre-open daily preparation is to record the Key Reference Areas which for me include: Settlement, yesterday's RTH High, Low Closing Highest Volume Price, VPOC and to determine whether there are any KRA's which have not been tested during the session. If they have not, I maintain them and carry them forward. By doing this work you must notice that we have basically been closing at the same price for several days, and in this case my bias becomes to trade from the outside back into the settlement until the market breaks out of its range. I must admit that I initially was more biased to the upside today but the best long setup didn't happen for me until later in the session when there was clear evidence of aggressive buying off the lows and this was expected to carry at a minimum to the settlement and if it gets thru, then higher. So, my point is that by doing repetitive analysis of the prior day's trading, you can uncov er some useful observations which can help you to hold on to a position rather than take a quick profit. Now we have closed ABOVE the prior settlement price so I am cautiously biased to the upside.
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I like Keppler's work, but I haven't (yet) read that book. Will add it to my list
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1380 possible and would be a measured move to a CLVN ... not expecting it today though. ES still having difficulty finding new buyers and the demand from shorts dumping their positions is drying up. but I don't see too much standing in the way
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Sellers were active there on Friday. 4 pushes did not get thru. in other words, if we do break thru it, it will signal to me that sellers are not present and hiher prices can be expected. nothing fancy
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68.50 -69.25 is key resistance .. watching to see the reaction
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I have a CLVN at 65.75 which is proving to be strong as the ES is struggling to get higher. Either get thru now.... or i'm out.
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Good support at VWAP expecting new highs and targeting 68.50 and 76 would be wrong if 1360 doesnt hold
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Yes. See: Glossary | FuturesTrader71
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Micro Composite Volume Point of Control and Over Night.
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Initial Balance low. Usually the Initial Balance is the first hour of trading (High and Low) but may be slightly longer in the ES.