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bakrob99
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Content Count
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Everything posted by bakrob99
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Here is the progression as I saw it.
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I use normally a 10K Volume chart for projecting moves and making entries in line with my delta charts. Today I decided to reduce the volume to 6K to compernsate for the fact that only 60% of the volume is going thru the U contract. This did really well for me today.... so I will increase the volume on my chart as the new contract gets more volume progessively. And just as I post I see were at the gap or close enough for me (:-->)
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I am expecting a gap fill ... then will see after that Note: Once it got back up through VWAP the 98 area was off the table for me. There is very strong positive delta since 9:45 EDT... Measured move points to gap. Long from 1304.50
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1312.50 is my target and possible bounce (it's the measured move from the High to swing low duplicated from the swing high at 13:25 EDT) That's it for me today R
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Filled 3:40 PM EDT Possible more down side
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Now we can get back to the business of filling the gap.
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Without wanting to get in semantics, I think "tip its hand" is what it did earlier at 935ish and then confirm was what it did after 10am... Regardless, there were still some great places to short or re enter short on the way down. My money management is to scalp trades that I take before 10AM and then hold the 10 oclock trade for as long as possible or until it hurts. Using this scenario, there were a number of times to short and scalp while in the range between 935 and 1000 EDT, always selling near the high of the range in front of the opening tick. Just a style. I am usually unable to hold onto trades taken between 9:35 - 9:55 as the market is choppy usually. Certainly on Mondays. Mondays I actually don't trade for the first 30 minutes or even longer.
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At the close the the 9:35 5Minute Bar. See my Chart. The Large VPOC at 1328.75 which was the opening tick price and the Strong Aggressive selling under it mean that any retrace back to the 1328's was a short... and once in it the rapid downmove suggested much lower prices. More conservatively, and just as effectively you could have waited for the 30 Min bar to close and that was a short in roughly the same area.
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I agree. That's why I look for Delta changes and evidence of strong buying or selling and take the retrace to the area. There almost always is one... and if you're ready you can often get a very low risk entry take that setup. Today there was clearly evidence of selling once price got below the opening tick and it continued with many retraces to the opening tick price which had large selling delta below it and great opportunities to get short at the opening price but only after the market had suggested it was ready for a down move. This down move came in at the 10:00 time frame. My point is .. had I had a level there (I did consider the opening tick a level) I would always wait for the market to tip its hand and then take the trade. This has the double benefit of getting you in the move (if it does happen) at the right time after it has tested you entry. Nothing drives me crazier than to take a good entry and move stop to BE and get knocled out of the trade on the test. So I try to avoid that at all costs now and never trail stop until it become a profit stop. If you want to start a thread with "EDGES", I'd be happy to participate either in Real Time or after the fact. Great trading today. Much better for me than usual rollover junk.
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On rollover day the volume split throws off my determination of trend day potential as I use the 30 minute volume usually to add to other factors in determining a trend day. Rollover causes real volume to be unclear as contracts are being swapped over so combined volume is high while each contract's volume is lower than normal. On a day like today I usually go into scalp mode so I'll take an early profit and look to reenter... I find that on most rollover days I am better to reduce size and frequency of trades. I usually wait for the volume to be roughly equal for the day on the new "U" contract before trading it. I always stay with the old contract usually through noon EDT.
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See above. Out at target.
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Very nice levels for targets .... holding for 1304.75 from 1300 area .. Thanks. Follow up: Out at 11:03 EDT 1404.75. nice.
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Are you interested in a Skype conversation on the ES?
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Thanks for the offer. I rescind my early comments. R
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Quite a day. Closed 1 tick off the low. Had more trade opportunities today than in most weeks. Have a great weekend.
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It's now 15:34 EST ... 15 Minutes we should hit the D2 Target shown above or it aint gonna happen. Let's see. 76's still hanging tough as I mentioned they might be.
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Another pullback and lower D2 Target on possible extension to the downside. 1276.50 will provide support... need to take it out quickly if we're going to make the lower trendline.
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Nice bounce off D-Target (measured move) And the 10K chart bounce is impressive
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Measured Move, D-Target hit as shown
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Looks like the downward sloping ML is working.
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Mind you, it could also be this...
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Here's a plain view.
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It is busy becuase it has all my key reference lines on it. Plus I draw trendlines. It's not bad once you get used to it. Each KRA is color coded. I had 1281 and 1292.50 on my chart since 5:30 AM as Composite Low Volume Nodes. They have framed today's NFP price action perfectly. The small green dashed are PRIOR R.T.H. Daily Lows. The Cyan dashed is a left over Gap (settlement) that got filled today. The Big Green dashed are High Volume Composite Nodes. The White Big dash is today's opening tick. The small white dash line is a horizinal line I use to show me the price of various price action ideas. That's about it. Look at it for 6 years and you get used to it. BTW ... the Schiff median line is holding still and suggests we could rally. Recent low was 1 tick higher than prior low. We'll see what develops.
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not looking so likely now .... changing it to Schiff ... its still in play
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Here's the way I look for the buy zone (green shaded area). Confirms ML trend. At least for now.