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bakrob99
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Content Count
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Everything posted by bakrob99
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Some responsive buyers appear to like the 1303s. This is the first decent long opportunity for me... (there was one before the 10:00 Housing news but I missed the fill)
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OK, make that 5 shorts now ... couldn't pass that one up. failure to find any buyers on the IBL and the inability to take out the last swing high suggests still lower to go. 1300 then 1298.75 then 1294 are all on my radar. 1303.50 is a key low here ... so let's see if it attracts the responsive buyers with some follow through. Somehow I doubt it will.
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Earlier the better. For me it just means that I am unlikely to take long setups until my short setups fail. 4 Shorts so far and now taking a break. Market appears to want to rotate here and is back inside the IBL .
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On major market news days like NFP, I consider the premarket volume. All other days I watch the RTH session for evidence of OTF traders taking positions.
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235K contracts in the first 30 minutes is a little less than usual for a trend day. Not bad though.
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Volume is a little light - but it's still early.
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Today is working as expected .. which is to say a rangebound market which is not expected to be like the prior day. Fade the extremes today has worked well for me. Short off the open and still somewhat short biased as I think a day like today is controlled by daytraders who are always looking for a gap fill. So I still expect us to sell off to the 1318 area and I am continuing my short bias until then. I have taken a long and been stopped once on it but hen got a nice bounce at 10:45 EDT which was a retrace to a BUY ZONE from 7:45 EDT and also an upsloping trendline. But we can't seem to get through the OSL. Speaking of bias, I have marked on my chart that we continue to make Higher High and Higher Lows so my short bias is counter the trend right now. We'll see what happens. Update: If we get above 1325.50 on a 5min close then i will forgedaboud the gap fill.
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I was quite patient and ended up buying the test of the lows which for me was a retrace to the prior area of aggressive buyers. This was a great long and setup for me on both the EC and the ES. Time of the entries long was around 15:24 EDT Es went for almost 10 points and the EC went farther. I didn't get it all but got most as it really went positive quickly making it easy to trail my stop and watch the price go higher. I realized that the initial push was likely to come back to test the lows but for some reasons I just didn't get short. But the wait was worth it. The BUY ZONE area on the ES I had marked was from 42.25 to 40.25 and was established on the rally at 12:41PM EDT. The risk-reward on this setup was over 5:1
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I carry the levels over from the prior contract and adjust manually... using the difference on the day. And I note that these levels are "adjusted" so anywhere within 2 or 3 ticks to me is enough to mark it tested.
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That was using the "M" contract right? So what premium did you use to adjust the level?
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1357.50 is both a NVPOC and a gap from May 7th Expect price to get at least that far. Market participants who were shorting the 53's now stopping the market higher. Thank you.
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Target hit here at 1353.50 (Target 1 hit earlier) Still room on the upside R
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Seems good to me. Thanks.
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Can you post one of those fancy composite charts of yours? please.
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1345.75 After that 1353.50 R
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1st target hit in Globex, and likely 2nd target premarket. Gap from May 11 attracting price. The long side worked out well yesterday and all my trades were longs. One day at a time.
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UPDATE 13:27 EDT: ES 1345.75 now establshed as upside target.
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The only thing I did today was get long towards the gap fill. After that, I've been sitting on my hands with absolutely no idea which way this thing is going to break. This consolidation for the past hour (it's now 12:34 EDT) will take us somewhere. Chart looks higher but who knows? Anybody have any ideas? I am watching value which has developed here at 1334-1335 range. To the upside I have 1343 as my first target. Downside 1325.50.
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All in all, today I managed NOT to get chopped up which is my number one goal on OEX day. Linda R would be happy. There's been 3 pushes up so that's enough for me. I am often re-Entering trends and today has setup perfectly for my style. What appears to be choppy is not really when you know what to look for. The key is to not let yourself get "excited" by the advertising of price. The big boys can't hide their volume and if I just follow it, things generally work out well enough. Here's an example of what I like to see as a market meets its target. The 5Min delta chart shows obvious areas of volume buying, each of which have: 1. A Change in VolumeBreakdown to Positive from the prior bar 2. Three or more Delta prices in a row which are green represent aggresssive buying interest 3. That establishes a BUY ZONE which I will enter using a limit order at the top of it 4. A stop can go below the low of the Buy Zone
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So do we keep going up thru the near term resistance, or are we going to fall sharply as a result of the uncertainty and Euro matter? On the Daily Chart of the ES here we are back at a Median Line which has been very in tune with the market price action over the past few months. If we can't take out June 11th high at 1342 and rally thru it then we are likely in for a down day and then who knows? 1220 - 1240 would be easily possible. On the other hand, the Central Bankers seem bound and determined to provide liquidity in advance of the Greek election. And the G20 meeting is going on right at the most critical time. Interesting times for sure. I don't plan to do anything other than what I normally do to make a daily income from the markets. But I especially will not be trading large size today as it is also Quad Expiration. Stay liquid.
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Back to VWAP. See if buyers step in. Somehow I doubt it. 3:08 EDT Update: So much for doubt. Wow ! Pop amazing. Straight up. Man this new world price action is something to behold. Buy Programs hitting, stops being lifted, market orders being shipped in by the boatload. Right after the weak longs got out, myself included. 3:09 NEWS RELATED Central bank agreement to provide liquidity if needed after Greek Elections.
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Here it is 2 1/2 hours later and lunch produced no magical giant push. In fact, the position shorts are still hanging on and if we break down thru 1316-1317 area we could see some aggressive selling. Stop at 1316. Hurry up and wait. EDT 2:26 Back inside the IB here .... watch for a downside move.
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I have a measured move projecting to the Upper Median Line at 1323.25 so I suspect the 1323's will be tested Time to trail my stop and walk the dog.
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1320's still the line in the sand for Shorts. Had to finesse a re entry into this upmove after the test lower and rejection of lower prices around 10:33. For me that signaled new highs likely, and the delta on the 5m chart changed positive right on time to make a low risk re entry in to the long possible, which hopefully will keep going.
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1307.25 just hit 22 minutes after setup. Sweet. Now it can bounce and hopefully get back to the 13-14's But Delta still too negative for me to do anything on the long side here. Watching now. That can change quickly though.