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bakrob99
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Content Count
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Joined
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Days Won
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Everything posted by bakrob99
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IMO selling the EC here buying a put option is a reasonable trade to take. This "news" can fizzle pretty fast once we get into July.
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Filled thankfully. Now maybe it will keep going?
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So sell some hard okay?
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10:30 EDT Here's my first short based on Neg Vol and structure at 1349.25 . Cautiously holding it down to VWAP? Oh yeah, it's on the half hour too. Scaling at 8 ticks and trailing stop. Doesn't look like it will be more than a scalp. We'll see.
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257K volume in ES (1st 30 minutes) when there was already a huge volume in the premarket is a lot of volume here. The move continues.
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That is an impressive series of program buys rallying this thing thru the IBL to the IBH in a few minutes. WOW.
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That 14:30 - 15:15 pop did not have high volume relatively.
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New low at 1306.75 is finding buyers. Possible higher Low being put in. See if sellers come back in to test the 1303 lows and see if buyers are willing to support it. Any break down thru 1300 risks blowing the stops. If I traded an account with 100,000 contract capability - I'd be buying some here. (Unless of course I wanted it lower to get filled with the stops at better prices?) Who knows? Market action for me today has been the best this week. Oh yeah... forgot to mention What time did the buyers step in? 14:30 !
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EDT 13:42 Exactly at the 1/2 way point to the D-target at 1303.50 mentioned above This is THE point 1308.75 where the market may rally and if the target is NOT going to be hit - the bulls need to step up now. This is a good place to scale out.
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11:45 EDT I think that there is a very good chance the next target down is the 1303 lows.
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10:09 EDT Target hit 1312.50
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ECU12 looks like 1.2354 might be the target. EC is in "sell each rally mode".
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There are 2 measured move targets down at 1311.50 - 1312.50 range I expect to be going down at least this morning. There has been responsive buying at the lows and it looks like they are stepping in again .. but why are we down here again if the News pop was such a good deal? I think the 1325 high is key and if we don't take it out then look for lower prices. Let's see what develops. I'm flat going into the open.
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Joshdance and Negotiator, Exactly. I don't make a "trade" decision based on time analysis - but I situp and take notice AND if the 30minute chart has some change which I think is a significant change in behaviour then it's even more important.
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You hear from the professional traders that common mistakes made by unsuccessful traders - or new traders - is that they get into the move too early - get chopped out of it only to see the market go in the direction they had expected. Ever happen to me? How about ALL THE TIME (if I'm not super careful) ! So I encourage you to watch the 30 minute chart on each bar's close and be prepared to act around the time of these 30 minute closes. This observation which I have been noting for several months has become very much a part of my entry considerations. And it has helped. Want some Examples: When was the high put in today ... around 12:30 EDT Want another: When was the most recent swing low then rally started... 3PM EDT. When was the swing low before that at 1321.25 put in and the rally started... around 11:30 AM EDT When was the High tested and then the next sell off occur... around 10:30 AM EDT. When did the rally off the news start .... it may have started around 9:55 AM but it took off after the news at 1000 AM EDT. Timing is critical for me to stay in a move and not be turned off by being chopped out. I have a 30 second warning in advance of every 30 bar and I sit up and pay attention to changes that are occuring on those times. Why does this (seem to) work? I believe it's because the big intraday money uses 30 minute charts to make their decisions.
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13:36 EDT ... right now market is at 50% pullback of last swing up and the 161.8 ext is exactly 1331.75. Cooincidence. Probably. As I type this it is still going down and touching the 61.8% retracement. If there are buyers lurking out there ... then it's put up or shut up for buyers to move this thing higher. Seems to be attracting more selling.
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most recent long was initiated at the IBH 1326.00 when the market broke above and pulled back to it. Makes me wonder why I didn't just hold onto the 1318.75 long off the opening for longer ? I will probably get chopped out of this recent long pos.But we'll see. Major chop now ... but whaddya gonna do... ( "gotta be in it to win it" Randy Jackson)
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I am still biased long ... but it struggling here. Need a breakout higher and run some stops to make those upside targets. EC's been better for me today. Should say that 1331.75 is my upside target.
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Scratched the trade after it came back. Stupid thing was I had a setup to sell down to the gap but because I was long I didn't take it - or reverse (which I hate doing). Shows me not to try to "think" too much.
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I am watching for a strong rally if we get a gap fill. A bullish Gartley would be setting up there, and it is an area that attracted buyers before. Any strong rally could go to 1326 area and fill the left over gap up there. I would change my opinion if we got much below 1305 10:36 EDT update Taken a long at 1307.75 see if it runs. Might be early.
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ES 30 Minute volume is 86,000 contract less than yesterday's 30min. Market is still not attracting longer term players IMO yet. Daytraders in control.
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update 15:25 EDT: 1310 hit and I'm out on the measured move (D-target).
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First long off the bottom was at 1303.75, followed by another long at 3PM ish at 1305. Market is behaving exactly as expected. OMG ! As noted above, 1308.75 continues to be strong resistance. Still expecting another push up - or this push to continue. EC is not doing much now so it's all up to the ES.
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Well that didn't take too long. New High Ticks and we got thru the 1307 but found some profit taking. Let's see if the next push up can test the VWAP or 1311 prior high volume area. 1308.75 is resistance which may prove strong enough for a pullback.
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I expect buyers to step back in at this test of lows 13:06 PM EDT Update 13:26 I expect this to get to 1307 and if thru .. then VWAP at 1309.75.