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bakrob99
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Content Count
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Everything posted by bakrob99
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Bought the 1342.50 IBL test of lows... hoping it goes to gap fill. Wait and see mode Volume really thin (light) this RTH session so far. No evidence of larger traders taking a position. Scratched one long trade after I missed my short earlier. This is the only thing I have going so far.
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DIVERGENCE The high has lower volume showing no follow thru.
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Thanks. I'll be leaving after lunch. Just watching now. Last push down bounced at 4.00 pts.
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Pretty narrow range for the first hour of trading especially considering the news. Anyway - for me it's been very good as I have had setups for buying the lows and selling the highs which have all worked out So I can call it a week and go do something else. Note that the 4 pushes (swings) down sine 915 EDT have gone for 4.5, 4.25, 4.00 and 4.75 pts before rallying 3.5, 3.0, 4.0 and now just 2.5. As I type we're taking out the low again so my 30min chart suggest much lower ... low 40's Have a great day
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Passed on a nice short setup on the 1368 gap fill, then found nothing worthwhile to get into. Market pulled back exactly as I anticipated. Obviously - should have taken the short. Interesting to see what develops for tomorrow with the NFP. I have a feeling it's going to be a ride.
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UPDATE: 13:48 1368.00 hit (1 tick away) as expected. ReEntry into long on pullback at 12:50. Waiting to see if buyers step in here to drive this to a test of highs. This last push up gives a little over 10 handles from the low and the market likes to take a pause after that extent of a move. Let's see what develops.
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1357 was the daily prior swing high June 19. The low today was 1357 as buyers came in at the prior resistance and have rallied this market up 9 handles. Bullish sideways lunchtime action with buyers stepping in at 12:30 ish in my opinion we can put in a test of the highs later today and with better than expected NFP report tomorrow will test 1385 area. ( Daily 127 Ext is at 1384.75 ) Any move below 1362 would get me to question this projection.
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Trailing a stop 1 or 2 ticks below the 5Min Bar low has captured this entire move up ... Now flirting with a move up off the IBH and above the VWAP with possible 1372 and higher in the cards. We'll see. 11:40 UPDATE program sell kicked in to take out the trailing stop 64.50.
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1358 LONG AT 10:15 see if we can hit the gap at 1368 after testing the gap (settlement from July 3rd) at 1357.50.
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I trade 1 contract for every $10K in the account. If my account were at $20K then I would use 2 contracts and my max risk on any individual would vary between 1% $200 and 2% $400 of account size. A $200K account would support 20 contracts. This is what works for me and my psychology. Thea reality is that my stop typically is a minimum of 6 ticks even if the structural high or low that i may be trading calls for say, a 4 tick stop. I won't use less than 6 as I have found that there is a 2-3 tick noise factor at times or a program buy or sell can knock you out of a decent trade. Typically I use an 8 tick stop based on some support - res or a recent high - low and if the volatility has increased (like Aug 2011) then I would increase the stop and reduce the contract size. I have found that averaging $200 per contract per day is an achievable goal and produces and excellent income. What I have described above in my mind is the smallest realistic stop that works on the ES. I trade the ES because of the liquidity and smaller contracts like the YM or NQ require larger stops as the noise factor is higher. (The smaller contracts are more easily pushed around)
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Fair enough, but the small lot trader does not influence the market to any significant degree. So unless he/she has the support of large volume traders entering at the time he/she does, the trade will not go anywhere. I believe that the footprints of larger volume traders are plain to see and can be viewed in any time frame but the ones I prefer are 5 and 30 minute bars. Full disclosure: I also use a 10K volume chart to provide structure which generates a bar every 1 - 4 minutes during the RTH session. But it is the 5 and 30minute bars that provide the evidence needed to support the setup.
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In order to use a 4 tick stoploss in the ES in the RTH Session you have to use a very good entry. Either you are using an entry that is timed perfectly to be with the momentum of the next swing or you need to be buying the low of a bar/area (if you're getting long) and in front of prior support. Small stops are account killers in the ES. If you're right but miss the big move becuase you didn't want to risk too much based on a smaller account size then you are simply trading too many contracts and you should reduce the number until you can have a stop that keeps you in the move while you're still right but gets you out if it turns out that you're analysis is wrong. I don't average down. Simple. If I were to do it it would be because I had one setup at one price and another at a near price and I was still okay with the risk involved. But that might be 1 out of 100 trades so not really worth thinking about.
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I respectfully suggest that there is an equal amount of information contained in the 5m and 30m bars... only different. And if you just are trying to keep up with the rapid movements of a 1m bar then you are likely to make rushed and poor decisions. My only concern is that my entry is timed correctly and in the direction that the market is going to move. My observations have demonstrated that some longer timeframe bars are very good to use for entry when momentum supports it. I do not believe that larger volume traders base their decisions on a 1minute timeframe. I can't elaborate too much now because I am away from my trading computer and using my tablet so my fingers are getting tired. I'll try to demonstrate what I mean tomorrow if you have any interest in discussing it. Have. A nice holiday
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That 1385 is sticking out like a sore thumb. Also a swing high near there. See what Thursday brings.
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I use the same setup on the EC but I'm a bit more careful ... however I find that it gives at least 2x the bang for the buck. Thanks for the update.
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Really nice pop on the Euro, as I have been watching how it has been trading with the ES recently. When the risk-on trade is in play, they seem to be reasonably linked. Managed to get long near the low of the 10:30 bar which was a retrace to the area of prior aggressive buying and it popped 35 ticks. Didn't get it all but got enough. Was already long and holding for 1366 on the ES which got hit at the same time . I am going to hang up the shingle for today and come back on Thursday. I have been concentrating on trying to stay in the long side setups as it has undeniably pushing higher on lower volume in the run up to the holidays. Nothing new there. Reminds me of trading the ES during the 1st four months of the year where it was just up, up and more up. Why fight it? I see some of my higher targets are being pegged but I'm happy to be on the sidelines now and spending some time on my boat this afternoon.
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Imagine getting long at the open and sitting with a loser all day. Not my cup of tea but I am willing to bet there's quite a few who did.
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I wouldn't mind doing it in your nephew's account too! (:->)
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1351 hit which is a key CHVN on your and many others charts. I think 1352.50 could be tested. I am done for the week. With all the potential volatility based upon EU decisions and releases ... it's a bit unfortunate that the markets are holiday trading next week. Still there could be some surprises and I'll be definitely watching pre-market for some decent setups. Thanks Negotiator for posting these charts. My trading platform does not provide useful market profile information and I have to go to other sources to get it.
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Mercifully the market got me out of that position and now I can do something else more interesting than watching ticks go by.
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Reminds me of a guy (many years ago) when I was in a room who would start the day off buy simultaneously buying the ES and Selling it in a different account. Then he just worried about the exit. In rangebound markets he would do well. Trending days he'd get stopped on 1 and leave the other. He never had to make an entry decision. I tried to tell him he was just paying extra commissions but hey if it works for ya... good on ya.
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Ok ... is it just me ? or does it seem a little choppy here?
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I have a lot of setups telling me to go long here.... except price keeps going down. Moving stop to BE.
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1347.25 on 1/2 which was 8 ticks from my entry,
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Market reaction is a little more muted than I haad hoped. We are back at the SELL ZONE from June 21st and I expected larger volume to be shorting here. Still early days in the short and I can leave it alone and see what happens.