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bakrob99
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Everything posted by bakrob99
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What was the risk? Rather than say it's risky - (I think) what you're really saying is ... "I don't know if this is going to work". Well, you NEVER know if a setup is going to work. Assuming you use a stop for your entry ... you know the risk. If the reward is hit and large enough to warrant the known risk - then pulling the trigger should not be a concern.
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Now that I have a minute I'll post the chart which was leaning me toward the 72-73 areas. (Other than the obvious very shallow pullback from the impulse wave up yesterday) Here's the price action 90 minutes later
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I see some strong convergence towards 1372-1375. Downside 1350 but I am expecting higher. Will wait and see what happens 5minutes into the open.
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It took me 4 years and a lot of money to get it more simple. If I look at too much stuff it creates doubt. With doubt - I can never stay in a move. Must be committed to it and just do it based on what you know right now. I do follow ticks and program buy-sell but mostly as alerts and not bar by bar.
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Here's an example of how it can be confusing. I have attached a chart which shows that I would be a buyer at the BUY ZONE of 3 prices on the Change to a Positive Up Volume (from red to green on lower frame) until the 3PM high was put in which found no more buyers and was a rejection bar. Now I am looking to short the SELL ZONE of three prices on a pullback. Also the time of day supported this move which was exhaustion after a huge rally. That's the context which is essential if you're going to make a profit and not be chopped/shipsawed. This chart just shows me where I can get in and expect a favourable momentum move but without the context it isn't so sweet.
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I use it on a 30min and a 5min. I tried 15M but it was a little like goldilocks. I'm looking for the charts which are "not to fast" and "not too slow" ... For the EC (Euro Futures) I use 10Min. Who knows? You can use it on ANY CHART. It's just what I do. Not necessarily right. There are plenty of charting packages like Market Delta that have more sophisicated solutions for this type of information. BUT I try to keep it simple. I found that they offer the software with so many options that it confuses more than clarifies. Here's the thing. I use it because my entry will not move the market. I need other guys to be doing that. BIG GUYS. So I just want to see that some of them are thinking the way I am and get on board. I do NOT exclusively base trading decisions on this chart alone. You have to use the context of what is happening. This chart can whipsaw you if you do't have a firm idea about what is the trend. Or if the move had hit a support or resistance zone. Like any setup - context is king because without context you never know whether you have to scalp or hold once in. I'd be happy to talk to you premarket or after on Skype if you want to talk about it. Let me know.
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I remember when Regan was touting his stuff. And I sat in on a few webinars. HIs rules were VERY loose. He used to look for "co-orelations" in the indices as I recall, and used a ridiculously quick (15 second( chart for trade "entries" Give me a break . I took one look and said that there was no way I could trade like that with any chance or hope of success. Apparently a few others agree.
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No. I use it only as a reference for possible areas of support and resistance. The other delta and volume charts I have posted - along with other more common ideas about where to expect the market to find buyers or sellers - are used as a basis for trade entry.
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Here's an update of the 60Min Day session only chart with longer term Median Line perfectly in sync with price action. It's quite uncanny how this timeframe gives excellent locations for possible trade entries. In the chart you can see that I had been expecting resistance 1 tick higher than the market gave, so I was not surprised to see the strong sell off.
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Much better trading for me today (than yesterday) If you're fading this down move , IMO you need to wait for buyers to step in and be prepared to buy when the market comes to your price. Couple of good bounces. Took the first. Passed on the 2nd.
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Just noticed that the HIGH of the recent Lowest Bar on the Daily chart, 1339.50 was just tested by 1 tick and found buyers. This is a normal market behaviour to test that support. So - could be the low of the day is in.
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Interestingly - the ES did NOT take out the 1356.50 high. Just tested and then rolled over into a gap play that picked up momentum when Bernanke did not indicate any easing policy. So the ES will sell off until he does. Might be quite a down move to follow. Couple of good shorts and now sitting on hands.
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Not sure if credit is the right term. Straight jacket would be more useful. Not a good day for trend following entries. Depressingly my best trade was at 9:36 shorting 1348 ... After that it was chop time. Now I'm stuck in a long that I don't have enough brains to get out of. My stop is there just in case. But its up and down and messing my head.
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The 60min close is the 2nd 30min bar which I track (same close) Here you can see that delta switched off the lows of 1343.00 to positive I also crossed the VWAP and closed above it so rotation to the Settlement was expected I had an entry lower down using the 5min chart.
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I see that probable price action on the weekly chart suggests to me that we may go back up to test the recent highs at 1406 area Strong buying came in at the support level and we popped strongly on Friday. This is typical OEX Week behaviour for the markets which often out in a low on the Thursday or Friday before OEX . My weekly target is 1406 Obviously I am not basing a trade entry on this but will be looking for long setups and trying to stay in them longer than shorts assuming 1340 holds. The market needs to take out Friday's high today for me to think this will happen this week.
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My trade entry was based on How to Get in After the initial move. I agree that there were other reasons to enter down lower. My earlier long entry was on the 9:20 brief pullback to the 9:15 Buy Zone. But this had a normal profit target so I missed the big push up because I was out with my normal profit on the entry. Take profit for me was at the VWAP. The trick is to be able to get into moves with shallow pullbacks as those are often the best places for 2nd pushes. Studying 30Min volume can give you a very good heads up as to the likelihood of the day being a trend day in my experience. Volume in all its forms is the only indicator I trust and I find it to be 80% reliable. The other 20% I think is random movement based on arbitrage, buy-sell programs, news etc. Buying the close of the first 5Min bar - or a break above it's high would be an entry choice for me too - based on the large positive volume pushing this move. I would not put my stop a the bottom of the bar - I would put it below the VPOC of the bar (not shown).
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In my color scheme Light blue (cyan) shows a large difference between the upticks and downtick at that price and time. The difference of 6449 is a very large number of contracts to have on the delta - in fact - it is the largest difference all day. That 10:05 bar had nothing but massive buying on it. Any retrace back to its beginning will be met with more buying. That is the premise of this strategy. You can see that 1344 was touched and was the low of the pullback. But my entry also had confirmation from the buying going on at 10:25. Later - at 10:25 - you can see more aggressive buying coming in at a similar price which is where I went long at 1344.50 That was also the first reasonably sized pullback in the price since the open drive which I identified in a posting above that had over 300,000 contracts traded in the first 30 minutes. This is the highest opening 30 minute volume in a long time. Ask yourself - who is trading this much volume? Which direction is the market going? With fuel like this in the market it will continue into a trend up day which it was. What should you do on trend days once identified? Get in. Hold on. Somewhere else in the postings I also said that 1353's were expected as this was the next push up target for me.
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The chart I showed is a 5minute bar chart which has a personally developed custom indicator which tracks upticks and down ticks volume and displays the difference with colors based on the qty of the difference. you can get a more sophisticated indicator in marketdelta software, or other applications which offer that type of functionality. it remains up to you to determine what, if anything, to do with information it provides. the reference to a volume chart I made above was to a normal share bar chart using Tradestation's name, which creates a new bar after 10,000 contracts have been traded, or any number you choose. when making a trading decision, I use the combination of the information provided when they are in agreement, to enter.
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Here's the 1353 and I'm out. Called for 53's to be hit but can't find the post I said it in ... haha The IBH was a perfect entry if you were late into the long and hold as huge volume supported this move up. Great week - now finished. Time for some R&R Have a great weekend. Next week - should be good even with OEX day.
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This is the chart which showed me that 1344-1344.50 was being aggresively bought with high volume. I use 3 different setups EACH of which were saying get long here.
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If You Are Losing Money in Forex,what Will Do Next?
bakrob99 replied to Jack Francisco's topic in Beginners Forum
Why not skip the spread bull and just trade the EC. I have found that to offer excellent risk - reward. -
I agree but see it slightly differently on a different chart I use a 10K volume chart (ES) to identify those types of trades which is how I made my 1344.50 entry 1 tick in front of the push. I call it the wall... becuase every time the market tries to get thru it it is bought up and forms a solid line in the 10k chart with 4-6 pts . A drop down by 1 or max 2 ticks that gets bought up is even better as it shows a failure to find any selling below. This is sort of the Wyckoff spring idea - or a Drop Before Pop. I use it to enter trends earlier than a confirmation entry with a tighter stop.
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Over 300K volume 1st 30min mean this is a strong trending day Sizable volume. 1353 - 1354 in sight
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ES SHORT AT 41.50 let's see