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tupapa
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Everything posted by tupapa
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Tomorrows plan for the morning. At A, look for long on a rejection, enter at the test. If we break below A, go short on a test from the downside. At B look for longs on a rejection, if we break below, go short on a test from the downside, and target is A. Above C short on a rejection and long if we break and hold above, target becomes D. At D, short a rejection, if we break and hold above, go long and target becomes E If we break below A, I have 142.26 as a potential support level, if there is rejection I will go long.
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No, I am not looking into V-reversals for the time being. My main objective with the post was getting my thoughts in order, regarding reversals, which takes me back to definitions regarding: S/R, Rejection, Test and re-test. Its easy to use this terms and even identify them using hindsight charts. But in order to perceive them in real time, I need a specific definition, that allows me to identify and act upon it with no doubts. I find this even more important when focusing on a tick chart.
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Not sure if I agree with you on this one. The 145.25 is certainly important, but I don't want to enter the trade just because I have a level here, I want to observe price behavior at the level, and enter only, when there is a high probability of a reversal. For me, this isn't the case until the test at 11:06. Here there is a rejection that breaks the SL, and a test resulting in a HL. It is at this point that I would be comfortable entering the trade. You are suggesting entering the trade at 10:38, but I don't see much here that would make me enter a long, just a series of LLs and LHs. Then again, I am a beginer, and I am trying to keep it simple, and master one setup.
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Thanks for the clarification Db, it makes sense what you say about the trip to 143.20 being the re-test. I believe the reason why this is not entirely clear to me, is because of a lack of definition. In my case, I find it easy to get familiar with terms such as "climax, test, re-test, support, resistance, even Swing High and Swing Low" but much harder to make a clear definition of them, where there is no room for subjectivity. Defining the terms is important for me, since I am constantly using them when trading live. If they aren't defined clearly, it results in confusion and hesitation when trading live. So here is a practical example of what I mean, using a reversal example in the Bund. On the 30m chart there is support at 145.26 (Top of trading range), so I am anticipating a reversal setup if prices reached this area. On the 1m chart, price reaches this level around 10:30. Now this is where, in my opinion, definitions are vital, and here we can move to the 5sec chart. - At 10: 37, price reaches support. At this point, "support is virgin", that is, it is the first time it has been tested for the day. Since it is the first "test" I want to see a rejection, followed by a successful test. At this point, the information risk I am willing to assume is low, I am looking for confirmation that the level will hold, at least temporarily. So price is rejected and makes a HL on the test, and this could be a great place to enter. One could then move his stop to BE, scale out on the failure at 42, or get out entirely. - At 11:52, price visits support again, on a "re-test". Here support isn't virgin, it was already rejected during the day, so maybe one could afford to be more aggressive in his entry. Maybe enter at the break of the Sl, or look for something in the tape, such as bids holding? The basic idea behind this is: If support is virgin, I am looking for more confirmation (less information risk) before I enter, whilst if support isn't virgin (re-test), I am willing to enter with less confirmation. This could also apply to the cases in which S/R is broken. If it is broken, it is no longer virgin, so one could enter with less confirmation. My post from yesterday is an example of this, as I didn't take the short at R because I waited for to much confirmation. I wanted to enter the trade as if resistance was virgin, when it wasn't.
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Using the 5sec chart certainly helps seing the tests and rejections more clearly, and I want tos tart focusing on it for entry points. I will also upload entries here, and try to find 5sec patterns that I can exploit consistently. The 1st chart is a clear rejection, followed by a LH. I didn't take it a time because of emotional issues and I wasn't sure if it was enough of a rejection, but this is a valid entry. The second chart is a test of R, from the downside, I didn't take this because there was no re-test, and I don't know if I could've been more aggressive on this. The third chart is below the OL, but the reversal is clear since buyers manage to make a HH and a HL The fourth chart is a reversal of the low of the day. I took a failed entry here because I didn't wait for the re-test, which took place in the next entry. In all fairness, this isn't a good entry, since by this point we are below Resistance, below the Opening Low and I should've been looking for shorts. At NFP, there was a initial test of 142.86 which resulted on a LH, I didn't take this because I was waiting for the re-test and when it took place, I was to slow to get in. All this was perceived in real-time, except for the 3d entry, which is something I will pay more attention to, a HH and Hl withing support tolerance, is a clear sign. Next week I hope to be more confident, pulling the trigger when I see some of these triggers.
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Alright everyone, this is a CWS trade that I encounter frequently and would like to discuss with folks in the forum. I have R noted from the 15m chart, so I know I want to go long if this level holds or short if it breaks. On the 1m chart, you can see price broke below and came up to re-test the level, this is the entry trade I would like to discuss (circled area). I knew I wanted to short here, but I have a very specific set of entry rules, so there are no doubts when trading real, I know what I am looking for, and I trade it. In this case, looking at the 5sec chart, there was an initial rejection which broke the Dl, but there was no re-test (which is what I normally look for in an entry). Which resulted in price falling and me missing a trade, which I had anticipated and even perceived in real time. So what do you do in these cases? Do you just move on? Is there something in the 5sec chart that would make you take the trade?
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Could you update us on this Db? If you entered on the first retracement and you are out at BE, you look for a short right? At what point do you determine resistance has been tested? I am having difficulty establishing this on the 30m chart Is this your test? Thanks for posting this, it is very interesting, for me, to learn how to apply Wyckoff entries using larger bar intervals.
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In the afternoon I once again second guessed on the rejecftion of 142.87, and after this I didn't get a clear entry. The resistance at 15 wasn't taken because my level was at 19, but as I've previously told myself, I should take this since it is close enough top R and the rejection is clear. A very frustrating day for me, since I spotted each of the ebs of entries, but didn't act on them and hesitated... For next week my goal is to stay disciplined, but use possitive self talk to get into the trades.
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I am attaching this mornings analysis and the plan for the afternoon. NFP is released in 10 min so I am expecting a large move, after the initial move, I will wait for the climax and enter on the retest. THe following are my areas of interest: At A price was rejected agressively, so I will go long on a rejection. At B Price has currently reversed, but I don't enter possitions pre NFP. If price is rejected again I will short. At C I will short a rejection, if we break and hold above I will go long, ditto for E Below A I have support at 20, if price rejects this level I will go long. If price breaks below A and can't hold, I will short.
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Today price found R at C, and broke below E, exiting the previous range and climaxed (Wyckoff certainly knew how to make trading sound more, interesting...) at 143.28, after an aggressive sell-off. For tomorrows morning session, I am focusing on price action around the following areas: At A I will go long on a reversal, if we break below, I will go short if buyers fail to get price above At B, I will go short on a rejection, if we hold above this, I will go long and look watch judge price action at C, if there is rejection I will SAR, if price slides through I will hold. If we break above C and hold above, I will go long. At D I will look for a long on a rejection. This should cover most scenarios for the morning, I will update the plan for the afternoon session.
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Today I haven't been trading from work, since I have the shits, and decided, for the good of the office and my dignity, to stay at home.. I posted my plan in the foresight thread This is how price reacted to my levels throughout the morning, I am showing rejection on the tick chart, since I am looking to define something clearly on this bar interval, and use the 1m chart for intra-day structure.
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Happy new year everyone, tomorrow is the first trading day of 2013 for me and here are my levels and plan for the day. As usual, I will be trading the Bund, I know some of you have mentioned how it can be jumpy, or even erratic, but I wan't to give it a bit more of a chance for at least a week, before considering moving to another instrument. For tomorrows plan I started by looking at the Daily chart. HEre, there is good support at E, A is the lower limit of the squared range, although it didn't act as support during todays session. Above this, we have the range MP, which acted as resistance for today's gap, and finally resistance at 1, the upper limit of the squared TR. The 30m chart shows these and other relevant levels: The range between B and D could act as S/R and so could the PDL, below this we have E which was mentioned in the daily chart. So the plan is to follow Wyckoff Standard Procidure, and trade a rejection of S/R or a Ret after a breakout. If price breaks below E, I really don't know what to go for, looking at the daily cahrt, the MP of the Oct. Range could provide S/R, but I haven't found the Bund to react to previous Range MPs. I guess the only option is to judge it solely by the price action, and try to judge it in real-time. Any ideas on what to do here?
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Happy new year everyone! After a much needed holiday, I am back with the Bund, battling to gain that desired consistency. Over the past 4 months, I have noticed some progress, which has resulted on a P&l which has been green most days, although nothing extraordinary in terms of profits. I also have some small losing days and, what is most worrying, some large down days (+60 ticks) which wipe out all my gains. This is mainly due to a loss of control from my part, over-trading and other issues that I've mentioned in previous posts. In order to improve my performance, I am including 2 important rules in my plan. 1- Do not attempt to make the same trade idea more than twice, 2 losers is enough to try an idea and after this it leads to a loss of control and anger. It could be that the market is behaving erratically, or it could be that I am completely out of sync with the market; either way, I should not be trading. 2- Write a new "trading in foresight plan" in the afternoon. In this way, I plan to separate the morning and afternoon session into 2 completely different days, since often, the plan I wrote in the morning no longer applies in the afternoon. So this, coupled with a strong discipline from my side, will hopefully lead to consistent profitable trading.
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Thanks for the comments pjohnm, not sure if I am following you, but are you suggesting entering the reversal after price breaks above 2615? I know each decides how much price risk he is willing to take, but doesn´t this leave you with a very wide stop and reducing your potential profit?
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I didn't post this because I was referencing your post, where you show the support level at 2610 (red line). And you outlined why one would look for a reversal: But here is the actual macro chart showing Support at 2610, for whoever might be interested:
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I know it is support from the 30m chart, the red line represents this, and it is known in foresight...
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Price is at support and there is a breach of a sl, by an upwave which is much longer than any of the previos upwaves. This tells me buyers have rejected support and if sellers fail to make a new low during the test, a reversal is likely. Whats ur view on this?? What do u think of both entries on the 5sec chart??
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I am focusing on a reversal setup for the time being. Once I've defined this and tested it thoroughly, I will look into other setups. Following the procedure you outline in the trading journal/trading log thread, which makes a lot of sense to me.
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Yes, the green dot on the 1m chart is a HL on the 5sec chart so in my opinion it is a legit entry. But as you point out, I would exit at the break of the Dl, shown by the blue dot. This is another reason why I think it is essential to test this using a small bar interval such as the 5sec or the tick chart.
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I want to share a few thoughts regarding entries on a rejection of S/R. I've been looking at these in real time, and through backtesting and forward testing but I still have nothing in terms of specific entry trigger or setup, whatever you want to call it. I understand Auction Market Theory, thanks to Dbs extensive posts, so I know Where to look for a reversal. I also comprehend and I am capable of perceiving the dynamics of a climax or rejection as explained by Wyckoff in section 7m but I am still struggling to define exactly what it is that makes me go to market (or place a limit order). In my case, this leads to a lack of consistency and confidence when I am trading live. Yesterday Db posted a chart of a reversal pattern, in the NQ, that lead to a Hinge and a profitable trade of support. Of course, in real time, you don't know if a rejection will turn into a Hinge and I thought it would be interesting to look at different entry options during the rejection. This is the 1m chart, as price rejects S for the first time: tThe 1m chart gives us some information, and I have spent hours testing and studying 1 minute charts, however, I find this level of detail to be insufficient, to define a specific entry trigger. Hence, I am now looking at a 5sec. chart, looking for a trigger that will allow me to take the trade with total confidence and consistency. It must be a pattern that repeats itself often, and it should also be as simple as possible, there isn't time for much thinking when you trade live. I know how much Db insists on the importance of the backtesting and forward testing phase, but in order to do this, you need something very specific to test. In my case, I don't think it is enough to test a break of a SL+a HL at support, using a 1minute chart. I don't think this is specific enough and venturing to a smaller bar interval might allow me to define the entry more clearly. So using a 5 sec chart, lets say I want to see the rejection and a successful test. I define a test to be successful when the "Test Trend" reverses, this is, makes a HL. Attached are 2 charts to illustrate this entries, the first leads to a loss and the second to a profit. I am sharing this to put my thoughts in order and since this is the Entries thread, it might lead to a fruitful discussion on reversal setups. If like me, you are day-trading, presumably you are using a small bar interval that allows for a tight stop, so maybe we can discuss some entry triggers.
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By valid entry, I mean a reversal signal that wyckoff or one of his disciples would approve. It looks to me like a climax followed by a successful test (HL), at a Support level, which according to section 7 of the course is an entry that wyckoff would at least consider. There are 2 things here that come to my mind which might be worth considering. 1- There is no Prilimary Support before the climax. 2- There is no volatility compression during the test, Wyckoff mentions this in section 7m, in page 2: "Our next buying opportunity is on December 29th when the market completes three days of lower support but the closing prices on each of these days are between 140 and 141, showing that the selling pressure is losing its force, since the net result of these three days' pulling and hauling is to leave the average almost unchanged following a considerable reaction " However, I don't know if waiting for several bars of volatility contraction was a must for him. At the end of the day, we have a break of SL, a strong rejection and a HL, and all of this is taking place at support so is it a valid reversal signal or am I missing something? It might be best to move this to the selling climax thread? Although in hindsight,we all know this eventually turns into a hinge.
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Regarding the reversal signal here, would you say this is a valid entry or is there anything that would stop you from taking this? Or is this something that has to be evaluated in real time, if so, what would stop you from taking this? (If anything) Thanks for the examples and for keeping the forum alive during the festive season.
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Update on the Bund, the levels worked perfectly but I was hesitant to short 04s because it looked like good support at 95. If we break above 04, I will go long if we hold. If we reject 04s again I will short. Below 95 is the lof ow the day at 74, and if this doesn't hold there is support at 50.
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A recap on todays plan, including last nights action: At 144.85- Long or short if we break below At 145.04- Long if we hold above, short if we reject. At 145.23- Short on rejection-- Monitor price at .85 or long if we break and hold above. At 145.34, shoprt if we reject, long if we hold above. At 145.54, Short if we reject, long if we break above. I will update the plan at mid day.
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Tomorrows main levels are 144.87 and 145.54 a rejection of either of them will trigger an entry and so will a move through one of them, and a failure to come above. At 145.05 I will go long if we hold above, and look to get short if we break below and can't get above At 145.34, I will go short if reject, I will also go long if we hold above, and lookout for a test of 145.54 Today's major problems were not holding to the winners for long enough, and trading counter trend once the TL was broken. Tomorrow, I will write a new plan midday, because I don't think one plan for the previous day isn't enough to trade throughout a day.