tupapa

The last few days have been hard and since its the last few days I feel like I've somehow lost the motivation. Once I get back on the live account I will be accountable for everything and I will need to exercise the discipline to follow the plan, with regards to trade management: 1- I'm not sure about when to move my stop to Breakeven, if ever. 2- I struggle with re-entries. This is something I must work on, and the problem is I don't have a clearly defined set of rules, so I will study my old charts and try to find an acceptable method that I can use as a template.

Just Looking an the DOM, I will see a price that buyers bid, but the offer stays there, meaning there are still sellers that are willing to sell at this price, and they can't get their fills, so if my hypothesis is correct, and there is no buying pressure, sellers will have to offer their contracts at lower prices, initiating the reversal. They will have to compete between each-other, for the remaining bids below the current price. Ditto all of this for a reversal at support.

Bund update, on the daily the weakness is still evident, after a strong rejection of the lower limit of the range on friday. IF we break below 141.27 the next target to the downside is 140.20. Tomorrow's plan is based on reversals and pullbacks, depending on where we open. If we break below 141.30, the next levels are: 141.02 140.92 140.64 1400.42 140.23

Yes, that's exactly what I do, taking a reversal at resistance as an example; 01-Price approaches the level and it gets rejected, there is a downwave that is stronger than any previous downwave, 1- then this wave runs out of steam, and comes back for a test, this is when I look to place my entry. Price must retrace 2/3s of the downwave, and it must allow for a maximum 5 tick stop, according to my risk tolerance. 3- I pull the trigger once I see a an offer that holds the bid, for this I look at the ladder instead of the tick chart. For the time being I only want to trade reversals at S/R or pullbacks once price breaks above support or below resistance. I am having less success trading the latter.

Tomorrow's Plan: Long on a rejection of A Short Rejection of B Short Rejection of C Short Rejection of D Long rejection of E Long Rejection of F

Tomorrows Levels, I will update the plan in the morning

This morning was bad for me, I was to focused on following the plan, and lost sight of how choppy the market was, I started taking 2 losers, on one of them I didn't move my stop to breakeven, and after this I lost focus, I was angry and didn't realize how choppy the market was. Price was paying no attention whatsoever to my levels, and that should've been a sign to stop me from trading, until the market picked a direction. When the market is moving so sluggishly, making marginally HHs or LLs but not picking a direction, there is a lot of potential for account destruction. I am trying to see this as an experience that I can learn from, as opposed to a failure. In order to avoid getting caught in this sort of conditions again, I am including a "choppiness" in my 2 hourly conditions assessment, if there are no trends in the market, there is no point in trading it.

Today's Plan: Buy Rejection of A, if we break below, short a pullback. Sell Rejection of D, if we break above, buy pullback and sell rejection of B

I think you might be focusing to much on volume, and leaving aside price and time. Personally, I only use volume intraday when I am looking for evidence of accumulation, or climactic action . I find the whole high vol on rally and low volume on correction axiom impractical and deceiving. So if we leave aside volume, colored bars, the time of the day (duno abou the Us but in Europe, it is common for the market to reverse at lunch time), and that annoying Ema, we can focus on price and time, which in my opinion, are the more relevant variables. Starting from around 10:40, You have an up-wave that lasts for 35 minutes and accounts for 6 points. Then there is a down-wave from 1502 to 1500, that lasts only 15 minutes, the bulls are clearly in control. The subsequent up-wave accounts for 6 points, but lasts only 15 minutes. Then there is another down wave, which accounts for 5 points and lasts for 35 minutes, this is the first sign of trouble for the bulls, an increase in the length and extent of the down-waves. Now to the final wave, which starts at around 12:15 and, even though it lasts for 40 minutes, it only accounts for a 3 point increase, resulting in a LH. Diagram should explain this better:

Yesterdays and todays trading

Price found R at 53, which was a swing high on the 15m I didn't mention yesterday. Then it broke below 20 and 06, didn't pullback to 06, instead made a LH at 03. After this there was PSupport at 141.75 and support at 141.64, which was a level and ended up being the low of the day. Tomorrows plan: Long rejection of 141.37, from yesterdays daily analysis. Long rejection of 141.64, if we fall below, short a pullback Long Rejection of 141.85 Short rejection of 142.03 Short rejection of 142.11 Short Rejection of 142.20

And Oil leaves the Hinge:

The Oil Hinge breakout seems imminent: On the daily we are literally hugging the hinge upper limit: And on the 60m we are forming another Hinge, an upside breakout of this, would be a double hinge breakout, both of the daily and the 60m:

A recap on the Bunds most recent action: After the fakeout on thursday, there was a very strong downtrend on friday. Friday's bar is extremely wide, showing very strong selling pressure, and a breakout to the downside seems likely, specially after sellers rejected the all time highs around 146.00 I don't know where we'll open tomorrow, but if there is a Gap down, 141.92 could come into play as support, below this there is 141.37, between these two levels, 141.64 could act as S/R, since it is the MP of that small daily range. On the 60m chart, the most relevant levels are 142.21, which was the low point of friday, and also the lower limit of the value area of the current range. Below this there is the swing low 142.07, this level seems less relevant, because we are below value, and traders really haven't spent any time around here, we could easily slide through it like a knife through butter. Now on to the 15m chart and the plan for the day: If we open above 142.21, look to go long if there is a rejection of this level. Above this level, a short is called on a rejection of the following: 142.36, 142.60 and 142.79. Although it seems unlikely that we'll get to 142.79, it is also the 50% ret of the most recent downmove. Below 142.21, look to go short if sellers reject the level. If buyers step in and reverse the trend at 142.07, go long. Watch out for a potential reversal at 142.00, traders love round numbers, below this, look for a reversal at 141.92, for the reasons mentioned in the daily chart analysis.

Absolutely, and I don't think it is coincidental that this questions was asked in the Auction Market Theory thread

Good question, and focusing on S/R is the best thing you could do, it takes some practice, and personally I am nowhere near mastering it, but I hope this example helps. The following is a daily chart of the Bund after Thursdays the 24-1 close. You can see how we are in a range, between 143.65 and 142.44, so although these aren't the more recent levels, they are concertedly relevant, because traders from all time-frames have something to lose (or to win) around them. Thursday's bar gives us some valuable information, buyers pushed prices above 143.65, but couldn't hold above as price fell back into the range and close well below the upper limit, at around 143.34. This is a classic Fake-out, and the emotional implications should be evident; all the bulls that bought into the breakout are disappointed or, even a nervous mess (if they didn't get out of their position), some of them are probably waiting for price to come up to the top of the range, to get out at break-even. At the same time the bear trader is confident holding to his position, new bears might be adding shorts, selling into rallies. The daily levels are fine but as a day trader, the most recent ranges are equally important, since it is where the most recent battles are fought. Following the analysis of Thursday's close, you can see, on the 15m chart that there is a range between 143.18 and 143.42, above this there is R at 143.60 and below, there is S at 143.08 So Friday's open finally comes, and this is how it all unfolds: At 7:00 buyers come in at Support and hold price above, taking it all the way to Resistance at 143.42. Here they try once and get rejected, then they try again, it looks like a breakout but sellers come in quickly, hammering price below R, then there is a third attempt that stops exactly at 143.42, the bulls just don't get it, and after 5 minutes of hesitating in a 3 tick range, sellers start hammering the bids, in what turns out to be a trend day, all the way down to the lower limit of the daily range. So, as you can see from the example, the limits of the macro range are vital, in order to understand the context that the longer time-frame participants are dealing with (which invariably affects all other participants). But the more recent ranges are equally as important to the day-trader, since it is where the most immediate battles are fought.

I would say it is likely a reversal rather than a retracement. By looking at the effort and result of buyers and sellers. From 0 to 1, the down-bars are wide to the down-side, showing the sellers are stronger. Then from 1 to 2, the bulls are tired, the bars are narrow and there is little progress to the upside, also check out all those wicks, buyers just can't push prices higher, you can also notice how every high is only marginally higher than the previous one, and that last bar closes below its midpoint and at the same level as the two previous bars. Buyers just can't push prices higher, and I would expect sellers to try again, if they make a LL below 1502, the reversal is confirmed. If 1506 was Resistance and it was part of my plan to short here, I would be entering below 1504

Today's trading, I will go through this and the rest of the week over the weekend. It feels great when you have a plan, follow it and works just as you anticipated it.

Judging the market by its own action, by comparing the length, speed and duration of the buying and selling waves is something extremely logical and reasonable to me, hence why I am sticking to this approach, simply because, it makes perfect sense. But there is something that I still fail to comprehend, and it has to do with the nature of probability: Mark Douglas mentions in his books that an edge, simply gives you a higher probability of something occurring over an other, and a trader should simply trade pattern after pattern after pattern, with little concern for analysis, he even mentions that being to analytical can have a negative effect on ones trading. Now, this makes perfect sense to me, if you are trading using indicators; I.E: Buy when the 7 period Ema crosses the 23 period Ema, easy, there really isn't any space for interpretation here. But doesn't the wyckoff approach require a constant analysis of market conditions making it almost intuitive? You have provided many examples of how to trade relying solely on buying and selling waves, both in this thread, and in the TBP/90minutes thread, which look fantastic and you can clearly trade like this. My main question is; Is each entry an individual setup that you have clearly defined? If so, do you know the % winners, Win:loss, max drawdown, etc.. For each setup?? Going back to Mark Douglas; He speaks in his book about three stages; Mechanical, Subjective and Intuitive. It seems to me that, what you are showing here and in the TBP thread is more Subjective or even Intuitive than mechanical.

IThanks for sharing and illustrating the concept of surfing, or trading waves, I am very interested in this. One question, how does this relate to the process outlined in the trading journal thread, of testing and focusing on one setup/pattern?? Are they complementary or is surfing the next stage?? Doesnt surfing difeer from the idea of trading a specific and rigid setup??

Today's trading wasn't great, because I failed to perceive the change in trend at 12:00 and kept looking for longs. I also missed some important info on the profile, that would've enabled me to make some good trades, instead of perceiving them after they'd taken place. In order to avoid this, I am incorporating a periodic MP, Trend and S/R assessment throughout the day.

How price reacted to the morning plan: It found good support at 40, which I perceived but didn't take because it was 2 ticks away from my level at 38. Then it blasted through 64 and 78, and I hadn't planed for levels above this, which was a mistake from my part, since it lead to confusion. Then we pulled back to 78, but found Support at 73, where there is Single prints and air below, it is now an important level. For the afternoon: Short a rejection of C, if we break above, buy a pullback. Long if B holds, if we break, short a pullback. Long on a rejection of A, below this, short a pullback.

Copper is getting closer to the upside breakout point, however, we already beyond 2/3s of the way from base to Apex, which increases the chances of a failed hinge. If there is an expansion of volatility and price over the next few days, the hinge will serve its purpose, if not it could develop into a small range.

Tomorrows Plan: Short a rejection of 64, above this short 78. Long a bounce of 38, if we break below short a pullback to 38. Long a bounce of 28

Attached is yesterdays trading, which was my best performance so far. This morning traders paid attention to 38, but I wasn't fast enough to enter the 1m double top or the IBH test. After this Price found Support at 07, and is now in the middle of the profile. Or of this was determined in foresight, but planning and execution are two completely different skills, my execution needs much improvement. For the afternoon: Short the IBH rejection at 37 Long on a pullback to 28 (we've jsut broken) Short rejecion of45 Short rejection of 55 Short rejection of 61-64