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tupapa
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Everything posted by tupapa
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Ye I know what you mean Niko, the problem this morning was finding the right resistance spot to sell at. Today, there simply was no such level in the vicinity of 63s, so there was no entry with the right stop placement. The only opportunity for a short was when price broke the Initial Balance Low (Initial balance is the 1st hour of trading activity) Here, there was a pullback at around 8:45, on diminishing volume and a contraction in volatility. Unfortunately I didn't take this, since I am not very confident with this setup and it needs refining. It might be something worth trying in your markets.
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A possible play on platinum, if the current rally results in a LH. Foresight trading at its prime
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Update on Bunds, nothing is clear to me this morning. We just had an upwvae up to 69, which isn't a lvel and found S at 54. On the 15m we broke that red up trendline, and I can draw a down TL from 04s, touching 68. he market looks bearish on the 15m, as we failed to hold above 63, which was old support, now resistance. As for a plan, I am struggling to put anything together, so it might be better to stand aside until things are more clear to me. Below price, I am looking at: Longs 47 Longs41 Longs 35 Longs 24 Longs 18 Longs 97 Above Price, the more obvious trade is short 11, and I would look to get long on a pullback, back into the range.
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tomorrows levels update in nthe morning
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This morning, das Bund has auctioned inside the current range and has given no trading opportunities. For the afternoon, I am looking at: At A go long on a rejection, if we break below go short on a pullback, and look for potential reversals at 142.51, 142.41, 142.24 and 142.18 At B go short on a rejection, if we break above go long on a pullback, and look for potential reversals at 143.19, 143.32, 143.43, 143.60
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This is a great way to learn how to trade by price, thanks for sharing ur foresight db. Regardind this short of resistance. The next targets are the midpoint at 1520 and the TR lower limit at around 1370 right? It would be great to read ur thoughts on trade management!
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Why options instead of futures or CFDs?
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Thanks for taking the time to look into this Db, first of all I wasn't at my desk, so there was no way I couldn't taken this, but even if I was, I wouldn't have gone long around 63 for the following reasons: At 12:30 price touches 63 and there is a 3 tick upwave, I don't consider this a rejection, since there is no signifcant shift from buying to selling waves, I would need a stronger up-wave to consider it a "rejection". Then price comes down again and 63 holds, then there is an upwave up to 73. This is a decent rejection, and here I would look to go long on a re-test of the lows. At around 12:45 price falls to 67 and makes a HL, this could be interpreted as the test, but I wouldn't go long since my maximum risk per trade should never exceed 5 prices. In this case, assuming I entered at 68, I would need a stop at 62, which is 6 prices.
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Friday's and today's trading
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Ye, thats what I am struggling with, determining the bottom of the Range, would you say it is simply 62-72? I mentioned 142.83 in my previous post but I'm not sure about this one, it seems like this could be trading in the middle of the range, which as you've repeatedly point out, is non directional.... The trend is up, and Dlines are intact so a long at support seems like the best option for the time being, I'd much rather enter on a reversal of support than waiting for a breakout..
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Hello everybody, I am working on a plan for tomorrow's Bund session but I am a bit unsure about my levels to the down-side, maybe some of you have a helpful view on this: First of all, on the daily, we are still in the middle of the most recent TR, so I am assuming that is why the market is choppy. but so far, the bears don't have it in them and the bulls are pushing prices higher, making a new high on Friday. On the 30m we can see a series of HHs and HLs, that so far, are finding R at 143.08. This is an obvious level for me, and my plan around it is clear: If tomorrow we reach 143.08, and there is a rejection, I will go short. If tomorrow we break above 143.08, I will go long on a pullback. The levels above 143.08 are also fairly clear. Now on to the 15m chart, which is making be doubt... Below 143.08, I have noted first Support at 142.82 because Friday evening there was a strong up-wave that was supported here on two occasions. Below this I have S at 142.75, which I am considering to be the lower limit of the current range's value area. My plan would be to go long on a reversal of either of these levels, looking to target the top of the range (143.08) for 1/2 of my position. and scale the rest, if there is a breakout. Would you agree that both 142.82 and 142.75 are valid supports or would you be looking at things differently?
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Don't take it personally mate, I just don't rely on volume for intra-day moves, but if it works for you, who cares, as long as it makes you money consistently, you are doing much better than most... Also, Wyckoff wrote this long ago, when there was no computerized trading, don't you think all the HFT could affect intra-day volume analysis?
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Looking at volume in such a mechanical way reminds me of the indicator folks. It seems to work for you, which is great, but in my case, the extent of the buying and selling waves, and their velocity are enough variables to make a trading decision. That's why I never understood the indicator people; In my case, making a decision relying solely on price is hard enough, and already leads to some hesitation, (Was that rejection strong enough?, Price fell very quickly! How far is this test going to go? etc..) so why complicate things even more? It seems ludicrous, an even masochistic, to add more variables; (Price was rejected, but the MACd is down, and the stochastics are oversold!! Or the volume was higher on the down-wave but diminished on the upwave... etc..) I am only a beginner, and I still have so much to learn, but when it comes to trading, I need to keep things simple, I need simplicity, so that I can execute my trades with as little hesitation as possible. Simple means a focus on price, a focus on buying and selling pressure, as shown by the length and extent of the buying and selling waves. Wyckoff explains this perfectly in the Section 5 of the course, Buying and Selling Waves, and gives practical examples of this in Section 22, The Wave Chart. I find this a part of the course that is worth re-reading. Another thing that helps me, is thinking of Fibonacci levels, I don't draw them, but I do keep in mind the 50% of each wave, and I monitor if subsequent waves move beyond or stay below this level (61.2 and 38.2%, although the exact levels are irrelevant). For instance, I've drawn a black line, showing the 50% of each wave during yesterday's reversal: At 12:30 the down wave is strong, but here an upwave starts, which moves well above the 50% of the down-wave, this shows buying pressure. This up-wave ends at 12:45, and a down-wave ensues, but it doesn't even get close to the 50% of the previous up-wave, this shows strength, and the fact that price stopped at Support, re-enforces this. Then, there is a very strong upwave, that runs out of steam at 13:13. Then a correction that stops at the 50%, the strength is intact.. etc. I am looking into incorporating this into my management strategy
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IS the MP of the daily range a valid S/R? or does the fact that we are back in the daily range invalidate it?
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Yes I am trading 2 lots, the problem with the bund is it doesn't trend like the NQ, which makes Lhs y Lls, the bund is choppier so I need a set of rules for management. I might have to take 1 lot out at S/R and scale the second out by price action. I have also thought of trying to hold for at least 2 times my risk. There is also the issue of when to move the stop to Breakeven, if ever, which I haven't established. Tomorrow's leves, which I will update in the morning, market seems strong and buying 72s could be a decent trade, with a view of auctioning higher.
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Today I had total discipline following the plan, which lead to a very controlled day and the best entries I've ever made. Unfortunately, my trade management was appalling, due to a fear of taking a loser, and fear of giving profits back. I tried using the LH system, where I wait for price to make a LH (when short) and not exit until it makes a HH, but this didn't yield profits today. Instead, using a fixed target would've been more profitable. The main reason why I believe I was profitable today was because I planed every trade in foresight, once I made the trade, I moved on and wrote a new plan, regardless of whether the trade was a winner or a loser. I also had the mental discipline to stay away from marginal trades that "Tempted me" throughout the day, and I was focused only on planed trades. A good day, means nothing, I must keep developing the mental skills to execute my plan flawlessly, to stay away from marginal, impulsive, and illusive trades. Also I must develop a management style that I am comfortable with.
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Great stuff Pryme Tyme, I agree with most of what you've written. The reason I asked the question was because I believe the function of the base is to allow, one side (in this case the bulls), to accumulate a large number of contracts, at the lows possible price. In this case, price didn't spend much time around 24s (which is longer time frame support), so I am not to sure if it can be called a base, maybe Db has something to say.. FWIW, this is how it resolved itself. Sellers poked below 24, and buyers came in, there was a strong upwave and a HL that found S at 24, entry could be at the HL, anticipating a trend reversal. Before this, there is a bounce 12:25, but no HL, would you've taken this? Or do you want to see a stronger upwave on the bounce?
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Is this a base? Yes or no because you expect price to spend more time around 24?
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This morning price found S at 50, as anticipated, then rallied up to 68 and found R, as also anticipated. Then there was temporary S at 40, and a rally that found R at 50, old S and now R. From here we droped below 40, and found S at 23, where are currently ranging between 24 and 40. So the plan, relying on S/R Buy rejection of 24, if we break below: Buy rejection of 18 Sell pullback to 23. Buy rejection of 96. Buy rejection of 84/78 Sell rejection of 40, if we break above: Buy pullback to 40. Sell rejection of 50/68/78/82
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Tomorrow's plan: Initially I am looking for shorts at rejection of 67/76 and longs at rejection of 49/40
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You need to login every time u wana view an image, should probably contact an admin.... Niko, regardin ur entry, it seems you are entering the reversal when price breaks the lsl. Where do you place your stop?? The main problem I see with this.is you need a very wide stop. I would rather enter around the Lh, so I can have a stop above resistance, and I am increasing the profit potential. I assume you are testing the setup only at S/R???
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Tomorrow;s levels, will update in the morning
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In the Morning price found S at A, then R at C and then we broke below and found some S at D, although the level didn't hold and turned to Resistance. Then we found R at 54, which was a VPoc from yesterday and kept trending lower, until just now it reversed at 141.05. For the afternoon, the Plan is: Sell Rejection of 142.16. If we break above, buy a pullback, and look for shorts at 142.33 or 142.45. Buy Bounce of 141.95. If we break below, sell a pullback and look for reversals at 141.84 and 141.78
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Here is an example of this setup, it literally just took place: Last night I posted my plan,l that showed how I wanted to go long on a rejection of 61, and this is what happened: At 1 price reaches my level, the bids are holding but I don't want to enter just yet. At 2 we get a rejection of this level, an up-wave that is stronger than any previous up-wave. At 3 we get a test, that retraces more than 2/3s of the up-wave, and allows for a maximum 5 price stop, which is my risk tolerance. So all my conditions are met, know I look at the ladder, and I could see how the sellers, couldn't make 62 bid, so instead of placing a bid at 62, and risking not getting filled, I go to market at 63. Hope this illustrates the setup more clearly
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Yes Niko, it is true what you say about not having a clearly defined setup and the testing is invaluable, at the moment I am doing this on the way, because I don't have much time for testing, and I am trying to define this from day to day. The entry is vital, but as I mentioned above, the management is key to the profitability of the entry. I will be very interesting in reading any progress you make with your testing and definition. As for me, I am observing as a I trade, and making notes and as I build something more concrete, I will post it here for whoever might be interested. Like yourself, I am using 15/30m/daily for S/R and 1m bar for entry, also trying to keep it simple, by focusing solely on the lenght, and duration of the buying and selling waves, like Db has taught us.. These are the levels for tomorrow, the plan for the time being is: Short rejection of B Buy rejection of A If we open above B, Short rejection of C, buy rejection of B If we Open Below A, Long rejection of D, short rejection of A. I will upload this tomorrow around 7ish, to take into account any overnight action and the opening print.