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tupapa
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Everything posted by tupapa
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Today there was a classic Support rejection setup on Acerinox : The Support should be evident on the weekly: On the daily, there was an up-wave and a test yesterday, one could enter, with a limit order above yesterdays high, next port of call is 9.00.
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I would say that Visa Setup is perfect, since sellers couldn't close the Gap and the upwaves are still strong, but I wouldn't enter so far in the up trend, a pretty steep one by the way.
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Past few days trading.
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Thought I would answer my-self here, and correct me if I am wrong. I believe when you mention, "if price had reached resistance with no hesitations it would've been a more attractive short", you were referring to the Hinge in Platinum, not that small hesitation on the test. I can see why you would mention this, as we have seen with Platinum, price approached R but formed a Hinge before the level. If we compare this with silver for instance, that also reached the top of the range but a few months ago, we can see how it went up in a straight line, and there was no Hinge or other congestion to deal with, so the LH was a much more attractive short. Makes total sense now, cheers DB.
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Weekly performance: 17-02 Monday, 11/2: -12 -No short IBL Tline -Hesitation coz of not exact level -Trading with no levels. Tuesday 12/2:0 -Was out for the day and no opportunities in the evening Wednesday 13/2: -12 -No short IBl Tline -To many attempts at 1 trade, -No entry coz of figure -Bought 4th test of support -Continuation after trend exhaustion -Missed a good long and anger shorted Thursday 14/2:+18 -Hesitation coz of not exact level -No entry coz of figure -Scratched coz of negative commend and strong counter-wave Friday 15/2:-6 -Massively over-traded, to many attempts at more than 1 trade. -Had a constant bullish view and didn’t take small profits. Tomorrow's levels haven't changed, Initial plan: Long 66 or sell PB if we break Short 86, buy PB if we break
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I like Abengoa, they are involved in the construction of Concentrated Solar Power plants, which I believe will be a major technology in power generation. I made my preparation last night: A few weeks ago, they handed every shareholder 3 shares per share they owned, hence the violent drop in price. On the 5h, there was a strong up-wave from 2.00 which we are now testing, and it looks like we could be making a HL. Since today was the 3d day of support at 2.9, I entered at 2.13, if the reversal is confirmed, I have a primary DL to play with. A hard stop is placed below the HL at 1.9
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For tomorrow, I am looking at 2 main value areas; First: the top range between 65 and 11 second: the bottom Value area, between 23 and 60, with a midpoint at 87. My initial plan revolves around the 142.65 level. If we break above 142.65, go long on a pullback, and look for shorts at 01 and 09. --If we break above 09, go long on a pullback, and monitor potential reversals at 18/41 and 60. If we open below 142.65, go short on a rejection, and look for reversals at 23. --If we break below 23, go short on a pullback, and monitor potential reversals at 05 and 87.
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Yes you can absolutely, there is so much freedom in trading using your own judgement.... Just take your time with it, study the material carefully and feel free to share any questions or thoughts with the rest of the forum. It is all free, just remember that before you can trade, you need to understand what an auction is all about. You wouldn't expect a medical student to perform heart surgery before he's gone through organic chemistry 1 and 2, and anatomy, etc... And you certainly wouldn't want him to perform surgery on you by following a mathematical equation, "If the blood pressure in artery 1 is higher than the average of arteries 35 and 38, perform incision...."
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Could you elaborate on this? maybe bring up some charts? I am most interested in this since it is what confronts the most with the short I suggested. Futures or not, Db has repeatedly pointed out that this charts are aimed at EOD trading, not scalping. If I was to short Platinum, on a rejection of a weekly resistance level, using EOD charts there is no way I would be taking a 55 point winner.
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Lovely jubbly, I am keeping an eye on this.
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Sorry, but I feel like there was a lot more to your last explanation that I could be missing... Ok, so you are going long here preempting a breakout above resistance. So if you are long, you stay long because the Hinge MP held, so another attempt at resistance is anticipated, makes sense. What about the short, this is the opportunity to do so, but on a Double top or LH right? Price makes a LH, isn't this the opportunity to go short you were referring to in the previous quote? (same opportunity that I suggested before the plunge). The part about the hesitations I find interesting: So if price had gone up in a straight line, with no contraction in volatility it would be more attractive to you? Funny, I tend to look at it the opposite way, for me, the fact that there is hesitation on the LH, means that there is still a lot of supply up here, and buyers don't have it in them to bid prices higher aggressively, like they did the first time. Sorry, but I don't understand this part, what 55 pt drop are you referring to, the one from 1740? Is this a scalp from the first test of R to the MP of the Hinge? And one more thing: I read in one of your posts that once you test a setup on a bar interval, it is applicable to any other. In this case I am replacing my usual intra-day intervals, (Daily/30m for S/R and 1m for entry) for longer term trading (Weekly/Daily for S/R and 1h/4h for entry). I thought this was the logical thing to do. Thanks for this fruitful discussion, as always so much to learn...
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Sure, there are many on the Whyckoff forum. If you are really interested in understanding the dynamics of supply and demand, what an auction market is and what it is set to accomplish, I suggest you start with the introduction, and slowly work you way through the forum. The Wyckoff Forum - Traders Laboratory This will take you time, and you will probably have to read and study parts of the course several times, but in turn, you will understand what markets are all about. After this, you can't start to trade, relying solely on your own judgement, as opposed to obeying the Stochastics or MACDs orders.
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What about a short after a RET if price breaks below 95?
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Nice, so I guess it is just a matter of preference, for me, the LH at 1733, along with the contraction in volatility is enough to enter. Now price broke below the midpoint of the range, so I have a risk free trade, and I can always pyramid if we break below 1660, on a Ret. This is a LH after finding R at the top of the range right?? Yes
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Only two: Supply and Demand. Personally I never look at correlations.
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An alternative view on crude:
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Interesting Analysis, specially the part about price finding S at the Range MP, I agree that this shows strength. However, I wouldn't say the trend is up, we are simply in a TR, above the 09 lows but below the 08 Highs. As you said, anything can happen, and I would say this is an inflection point: If price breakouts above R, I would go long on a pullback/ret. If Price rejects R, I go short on a LH, target is the range MP for 1/2, and range lower limit for the second half. This is how I trade trading ranges.
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Price has already opened above 66, so here is the plan for the day: Go Long on a test of the 66 area, since we are back into the previous Rane (Value area) and there is a good chance that traders will test the upper range limit. Targets are MP for 1/2 and upper limit for 1/2 --If we break below 66, go short on a pullback, and look for longs at 43/23. Go short on a rejection of 11, anticipating a move back into the range, targets ae MP for 1/2 and lower limit for 1/2. --If we break above 11, go long on a pullback, and look for reversals at 19/32/43/60/73/87
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I am placing my stop above the LH, around 1740. And when I say it’s just a numbers game, I mean that I have tested this setup (Rejection and resistance followed by a LH/Dtop) and it has a probability of success of around 65%. My targets for the trade are the MP of the range, and the lower limit around 1400, so the Risk/Reward of the trade is very favorable. This is why I can tolerate the stop, and if price rallies today or next week making a new high, I am not going to feel angry or emotional, it would just be one of the losers in the sample. As for blowing up my account, I have a money management strategy that ensures I can last in the game. The irony here, is that virtually everything I have learnt about the mechanics of trading is in this forum, as soon as I found it, I didn't even bother looking elsewhere, I know it is all here, it is all your work. We seem to have a discrepancy about this trade, so I obviously have some questions; 1- You are mentioning the 50% as potential support; do you consider the midpoint of every wave as potential S/R? I thought you only looked ad Midpoints of ranges and Hinges. 2- When I asked you where you would go short, you mentioned on a Ret, after a breakout below Support. Which support are you talking about?
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Target is 1400 so I can defently tolerate the stop. Anyway, well see how this develops, either way its just a numbers game.. Thanks for bringing these charts up.
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When i trade intra-day, I will have my R level on the 30m, then I will look at the 1m for a volatile down-wave, followed by an up-wave that results in a contraction of volatility, resulting in a LH or double top. I am simply applying the same principles, only using a daily and 60m chart instead of 30m and 1m. Isn't this a textbook Wyckoff setup? You are suggesting entering at the break of 1690, after a LH but isn't this simply a matter of price vs information risk? Once price breaks below 1690, I would reduce my stop to breakeven, but I wouldn't be looking for an entry. I am not experienced with trading of daily bars (or trading in general, for that matter) so I might be getting it all wrong..
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So, under what circumstances would you short this longer term?? D top at 40??
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Today's trading, not bad since I only made trade outside of the plan, but still so much room for improvement... Today's causes of hesitation are familiar: 1- Rejection of 87 I was to slow bidding 92 and didn't get a fill. 2- Then I didn't buy the Pullback to 23 because the GDP was coming out. 3- I had a decent short but took it out because of some negative news on europe and a blip against me.
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But now the Demand Line has been broken, isn't the drill to go short at the LH, after the rejection of resistance?
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Today we trended lower, and ended up forming a range between 88 and 20, so the initial plan is obvious: At 20 short a reversal, and target is midpoint of the range at 05 for the 1st half, and lower limit for the second half. -IF we break above, look to buy a pullback, and reversals at 35 and at 46. At 88 go long on a reversal, target is 05s and 20. -If we break below, go short on a pullback and look for reversals only at 78 and 60 I am also including an analysis of today's trading, which was generally erractic, lacking in discipline in detailing a thorough plan and in following it, not great but some lessons for tomorrow.