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tupapa
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Everything posted by tupapa
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Going back to gold Gringo, today we broke the SL decisively, so are you still looking at entering long on a test, like you suggested last week? Does this confirm the preceding price action was a climax, and we can now anticipate a potential secondary reaction? Are we within tolerance of support to consider a reversal? Just some questions, feel free to share any that I might be in your mind
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Tomorrows plan: Plan: Long 32 Long 14 --Short PB Update in morning with clearer levels.
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This was posted yesterday morning and today the hypothesis was confirmed. Buyers just didn't have it in them to push prices above resistance and the down-wave that followed was notable. Next port of call is 2703, if buyers don't hold this level there isn't much to stop price from falling to the MP of the most recent range. Btw, Gringo, what happened with your S&P and NQ analysis?? I was looking forward to reading them!!
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Db, in terms of anticipating a reversal of the daily up-trend, at what time do you start planning for this? S&P all-time highs are at 1576 so would you say we are withing tolerance of Resistance, represented by the top of the monthly TR? S/R are a zone, not a fixed price level so I often struggle with determining at what point price has is testing or rejecting, and at what point I should start looking for signs of rejection.
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Tomorrow's plan is fairly simple as we are in a range between 39 and 73.
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NQ looks much clearer to me. On the monthly there was a strong down-wave from 4800 to 800, that ended in 2002 and since then we've had a macro Upwave that has made a high at 2800, the exact 50% correction of the down-wave from the 2000 highs, so a down-trend continuation seems likely. On the weekly, there is some weakness. The DL is broken and price is forming a textbook H&S pattern, I know Wyckoff isn’t about patterns, but most traders are, and they are all aware of this. On the daily, price has spent the past weeks inside a tight Range between 2700-2753. At the start of February we pushed higher but buyers couldn't move price above 2786 and they got hammered, bears pushed price all the way to the bottom of the TR. On Friday buyers came in again at S with strength, but they now have a lot of supply to go through at 2753, from everyone who bought into the Breakout of the TR. If buyers can’t push prices above 2753, a short seems legit for all the reasons outlined above
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Thanks for waiting Gringo Here is my take on the S&P, I had a pretty heavy one last night and I have been suffering the hangover today so getting it done has been a proper challenge, and I'm sure it won't be one of my best analysis.. I am looking at this purely from an EOD perspective, looking for trades to hold for the long run. On the monthly we are approaching the top of the TR, so a short at resistance is a possibility, but everyone knows this, so if you are going to make money, it is all about timing. The March 2000 highs are at 1550 and the 2007 highs are at 1576, so if we make a LH here (below 2007 highs) we would form a H&S top formation. On the weekly the trend is intact and there are few signs of weakness. On the daily the first signs of trouble appear: -Firstly there is the break of the DL, which is nothing dramatic. -Secondly and maybe more importantly, there has been a strong down-wave, after a very sluggish chop. Now price is around 1515, the top of the most recent TR, which acted and support and is now resistance. Some of my doubts are: - Are we in an area that is close enough to the top of the TR to consider a short? This is a common issue with my trading, I know there is a level where I am looking for a reversal, but I don't know how close to it I should enter the trade. The fear of missing out also clouds my judgement when price gets close to S/R -A part from the break of the DL on the daily and the volatile down-wave, I don't see much that would make me initiate a short from an EOD perspective. Hence why I was wondering what DB was focusing on when he pointed out twice on Thursday, how good the S&P looked.
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Sounds good to me, Ill post something by tomorrow, dont wana rush it. Damn this job is addictive, workin on the day of the lord....
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You mentioned the s&p twice on thursday, as a great op. Is this from an EOD perspective?? I see a strong downwave, break of dl and correction on friday. Could you show what you are focusing on like you did with oil??I can see the short after a LH but I feel like im missing a lot..
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Niko, if u dont mind sharing, what is it that you want?
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Automatic Rally was a Lapsus and its funny how these things come out. Before I found this forum, I read a Wyckoff adaptation elsewhere, but didn't give it much importance as I found it confusing (Unlike the original course). The term clearly stayed in my head even after one single reading. Anyway thanks both for your views, since I am not used to EOD trading, I think I may be focusing to much on the smaller waves, and leaving aside the larger ones, that are visible on the daily interval. The idea of looking for the setup on the daily and the entry on the hourly (for example) makes a lot of sense.
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Wednesdays and yesterdays trading, Im being more controlled but my trade management needs improving...
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Gold recorded its highest volume on the 20th, as Gringos chart shows. If we open up the daily bar, we can see how most of it was recorded as buyers provided preliminary support, and later at the extreme low, at 1555. Gold is now temporarily (or lastingly) in strong hands and since the force of supply is now exhausted, we are witnessing a technical rally. If buying on the break was for the purpose of relieving the panic, the support will be thrown back into the market on this technical rebound. Now we have two potential scenarios; 1- The support Gold is thrown back into the market on the technical rebound, this and other selling might increase supply sufficiently to drive prices through the lows recorded at 1555 and bring a new decline. 2- A secondary reaction takes place, and prices hold around or above 1555 with volume shrinking appreciably, we have an indication that liquidation was completed. This is a quick adaptation from Wyckoff’s section 7m, and it is my interpretation of what is happening right now with gold. I find it extremely useful to do this in real –time and I think it is the best way to learn. As usual I have some questions… If what we are now experiencing is the Automatic Rally, wouldn’t you expect a more pronounced angle on the rejection? The bars are quite narrow and there is none of the explosive up-move I would expect if selling pressure was truly exhausted… Doesn’t it feel like more of a correction? I am moving to gold for the time being because it is stronger than silver, which is strange since it tends to be less volatile, but I am following both.
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Todays plan, we are in a range between 32 and 60. Plan is to go long at 32 if we break below sell pullback Short 60 if we break above buy PB
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I am not an expert on reading Vol, but it appears that we have a selling Climax, and short after this, a buying climax around 28.85, big effort, no result, which shows there is still strong supply at this level. This, confirms the hypothesis that the selling pressure prevails right?
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Yesterdays volume was climactic, and the market closed above the low, which shows there is considerable buying interest at these prices. Today, so far, sellers have been unable to make a new low, but there hasn't been the strong rejection caused by a lack of selling that follows a climax, which suggests that even though buyers are happy bidding around 28.4, there is still selling pressure at 28.8. Like Gringo, if I was to trade this, I would wait for an upwave that breaks the SL decisively, followed by a test that doesn't result in a LL.
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Silver bounced of the top of that August congestion. Today was the second day of no downside progression after a prolonged decline and we had a bounce, however, I would want to see a stronger up-wave than this to start to consider a reversal. Below this, there is major support at 26. Do you even consider 28 as support? Or do you wait for 26 to get tested?
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Ordinarily I am looking for a strong upwave after the climax, followed by a down-wave with a contraction of volatility and preferably lower volume. Then I place a limit order as the lower High is being formed. This is how I trade intra-day Since I am only allowing myself to trade metals EOD, I will update the thread with what I am seing at the end of the day, which might mean that I won't be able to enter with a limit order as the LH is forming, but will have to place a limit above the close of a particular bar. It depends on what the waves look like at the end of the day. Look forward to sharing ideas on this with everybody else. Edit: Anyone know where I can find a chart that shows daily volume for metals??
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By test of support, do you mean a wave that retraces all the way up to 1660? Last night I noticed the Ret in Platinum that I show on my last chart, but I wasn't sure if this was a valid one or if It was safer to wait for a test of 1660. My reasoning was that if I entered on the Red dot on the previous chart, I would need astop above Support (1660) which is very wide...
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It seems like a good time to refresh our analysis on gold, the decline is accelerating on what could end up being a climax at support. I am working on to simple scenarios: S1: There is a selling Climax followed by a Higher Low (test) in which case I will go long. S2: there is a breakout below 1533, in which case I will go short after a Ret, same as with Platinum and Crude Oil above. It is worth noting that since price is accelerating towards support, with no congestions, price could reverse violently if a climax takes place, something that I learnt from the most recent price action in Platinum. Anybody else looking at this?
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Is this The Ret you were referring to? As for Crude, the same concept applies:
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2morrows plan, on the daily we seem to be rejecting lower prices, and today there was weakness on US equities.. Long on pullback to 67/66 is my trade of the day
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I would add that in my case, reverting to a longer time interval has less to do with being able to follow a market during the day and more to do with (not) wanting to follow a market all day. I would much rather spend my day doing other things than following a ticker, and plan my trades EOD, spend an hour at night for instance, planning my campaigns. Which is why I am trying to learn EOD trading, and since everything I have learnt about trading, has come from you and the rest of the forum, it is the only place where I can ask and share ideas Platinum has broken the Support decisively, so I am now looking for a Ret to short. Since I am only allowing myself to trade this EOD, I will update the post when I find the Ret.
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Moving back to Platinum, the support at 1660 is still holding, a few days ago, you mentioned how going short on a Ret if price breaks Support is the best option, since the Hinge is out of the way, and there isn't much to stop price from falling below. So far, the down-waves are gaining strength, however 1660 hasn't been broken: Since I am new to EOD trading, I wanted to ask you about the Ret/ IF price breaks Support, Do you require a Ret on the Daily bar Interval? Or do you look for a Ret on the 60m? Since this is EOD trading, is any bar that closes above the previous bars close a valid Ret? Be good to hear how more experienced EOD traders define a Ret.
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Today's Plan: Short Rejecion of 66, if we break above, go long on a pullback. Below this, we are currently finding R at the PDL 61 as I write this, but I am not short so it is going to be hard to find a level to short below this, and if price starts falling there are possible reversals at: 142.50 VPOC 142.45 was S a few days ago 142.22 Top of the TR