Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
tupapa
-
Content Count
412 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Everything posted by tupapa
-
It certainly doesn't seem easy, I imagine it is also hard to explain how to trade this way, once it becomes second nature. You have posted a week of trading much like the Trading in 90 minutes Thread, Surfing the waves using Demand and Supply Lines guide you. How does this relate to; The idea of trading only at Support and Resistance and planning your trades in foresight before the market opens?? The idea of defining a unique setup, testing it and waiting for it to take place?? This seems to be like a very active trading plan, where you are constantly entering, exiting, and reversing. Isn't this a completely different ball game from how you and others traded in the Trading in Foresight Thread a few years ago?? Example; Go long on a rejection of Support, if there is a breakout sell the retracement, if none of this happens do nothing. What exactly are you trying to accomplish by posting these charts? Is this supposed to help traders develop a trading plan?
-
Actually I looked at it in real time. Why don't you go long in the first bounce at 43, but you go long at the bounce at 40? In real time I noticed an up-wave that was practically as long as the previous down-wave, then a Ret to around 43, which is the 50% Ret of the up-wave, so I thought if buyers step in this shows strength.
-
Today I've been watching and perceived the imbalances in a similar way, but what about this one? Why short instead of long?
-
This is obviously wrong. A hinge shows agreement between buyers and sellers since price is compressing and the value range getting narrower. If there was disagreement, price would be trending, looking for value. Traders agree= Price is static. Traders disagree= Price is dynamic. I wouldn't say there is a correct way to trade something, it is a matter of how much information risk and how much price risk you are willing to assume. Yes. (I have already posted everything that has to be said on gold) NO. It is a springboard, as DB pointed out, I was mistakenly assuming that every springboard is a hinge. A hinge is a type of springboard, but current silver price action is not a Hinge.
-
Ah my bad. So the defining characteristic is the diminishing volume right? Like, in this case, buyers are taking everything that is on offer around the current level, but eventually, sellers could refuse to offer at current prices and buyers will be left there, waiting for their bids to get filled... That's when preparations are complete.
-
The reversal in gold is taking place as anticipated. If price breaks 1620, the reversal is complete. But what about silver? I am standing aside for the time being, but price is at support, so eventually one side must give up. Looking at the chart, I know it doesn't have the classic HL and LH pattern of a springboard, but the volume is diminishing appreciably. Less volume, means less traders willing to bid and offer inside the current price range, so it seems safe to assume that eventually, price will depart the range, looking for value elsewhere. Is anybody else trading this? If so, are you treating it as a springboard or do you have other views?
-
I don't think I would wait for the top of the TC for the short though, I am focusing more on a rejection of the 06/07 resistance.
-
It seems like commodities are good for EOD trading, since the trends are clean and prolonged. A part from Cocoa, I am keeping an eye on Wheat. It bounced of support at the top of a Trading Range, which also coincides with the longer trend-line. Ont the 5h, the down trend-line was broken and the up-waves are getting longer, I guess if the current down-wave is shorter than the previous up-wave, a long position would be justified.
-
Yes but so far there is still no entry, even if you placed a sell limit below support. But I would say this Gap is significant, since it results in a down wave that breaks the previous range decisively. Now I am waiting for buyers to test 2781, here they will encounter supply from those who bought around 2800 and now want to get out even. If buyers can't push through the supply, this will result in a Lh and we may see further downwards progress. It is also worth noting that another down-wave from here would break the trendline from the November lows. Or none of this will happen and buyers will just smash through Resistance, you don't need to know to make money
-
I posted a plan on ABG some time ago in the now deceased Trading in Foresight Thread. I guess as a trader, you often have to hold the trade through the chop, and accept the possibility of your stop being hit, one of the hardest things in my trading. I guess the moral of the story is plan like a genius and trade like a retard.
-
Yes, this also plays on my mind but I guess you are going to have to accept you will miss some entries and just let go of them and move on to the next setup on another instrument. If you are trading EOD, you are not "watching anything" you are placing your entries and exits using statics charts, I see it as a completely different style, much more relaxed.
-
I am also currently focusing on EOD trading and I would say the process is very similar to intra-day, that is: Find S/R and ranges on the longer bar interval (weekly) Analyse the current trend and possible setup on the daily. Look to place your buy/stop or sell/stop on the smaller interval 60m/30m. For instance US Cocoa: I posted the weekly chart a few days ago, indicating a potential bounce of Support: The Up-wave developed and resulted in a break of the down trend and a HH, the up-wave is longer than the previous down-wave, which means the bulls could be gaining control. This can be a setup for a reversal. Now I move to a lower interval, to analyse the trend on the test, for instance the 60m. If Here I see buyers coming in and supporting price above or around the previous low, I can place my buy limit above a small range or a previous bar high or whatever. I don't think the exact entry point is that important, when you are playing a weekly range. And no, I don't see the point on watching the tick chart when trading the longer term waves.
-
Range, trading range.
-
Don't really get this quote, but I believe the reason why you got out was because price couldn't break Tuesday's high, so you remove the position because the market didn't do what you were anticipating (rally)?
-
Interesting, how come?
-
I don't understand this, what does gold have to do with the SPX? If you are trading gold, why don't you just make your decision based on the current supply and demand for gold?
-
So now you are in the trade, you simply look for evidence whether to hold or fold after RTH right? The next milestone is the AR high at 1620, a break above this level confirms the reversal and it is the third and last opportunity. This is the least favorable entry, since one is increasing risk by buying on an up-wave. All this according to WYckoff.
-
I gave my take on the NQ some time ago Not much has changed since then, a break above 2780 and another small range above this. In my opinion, the higher probability trade is long unless we break below 2780, as I mentioned in my past posts. If we break below, we are back in the range and a test of the lower limit is likely. What are you saying Gringo? Do you consider initiating a position now or do you stand aside? If any position when do you exit? Do you SAR? If you stand aside, how do you plan on trading this?
-
You mean the uptrend from the 2009 lows? Isn't the tightening SL (Channel upper limit) an early sign of a potential change in trend? By timing do you mean entering at the "best price" or entering when the reversal is imminent?
-
Well I wouldn't automatically short, it depends on what traders do. If price falls below the 80-89 area with strenght, and then buyers attempt to push it above but struggle due to heavy supply, I consider we are back in range B, and a test of the lower limit is likely. Reasons for short: -Weekly DL is broken -LH compared with the Sept. 2012 high -Channel SL is tightening, buyers are achieving less progress to the upside, sellers are offering at lower levels. This is just a potential scenario, so far I see nothing that would make me get short, I am simply planning. I am focusing on the NQ for shorts because it is weaker than the S&P and Dow.
-
Hard to read vol on the NQ due to contract expire. But it appears to be diminishing, in what could be hesitation hesitation among traders towards bidding for higher prices. Price gives more valuable clues (in my opinion) Trendline intact but buyers struggling to reach the upper limit, SL tightening. 2789 is the line in the sand for me, above this I am bullish. Below I consider shorts, this is a longer term view.
-
Why so much focus on 2020/15?
-
Could you link the thread where u found this post? Cheers
-
US Cocoa has touched the lower limit of its weekly TR, around 2000 Buyers came in here and caused an up wave that, so far, is as long as the most recent down-wave. Might be something worth keeping an eye on.
-
This has to be the fundamental issue for every trader. At the end of the day, we all end up with more or less money, we are aware of the potential to make a lot of it, but is it the dollar that we are after? I doubt it, the money is just a means to an end so it is the end that is the goal right? Maybe we want security, or freedom, status, recognition, or a house and a car, or to quit our job, or to spend a year traveling around the world, or to buy a hut in Hawaii and spend our days surfing, away from the banal circus we call society. Db and other experienced traders that have dealt with this; Did you always know what you wanted from your trading? Or is it something that you discovered with time? Once you established what you wanted, did your performance and attitude towards trading change? If you know your goal, does this put negative or positive pressure on you? For instance, your goal is to build a house in 3 years, so you've done the math and you need to make an average of 500$ a day from your trading. Wouldn't this influence you negatively since you are thinking about the money and your goal whilst you trade?