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tupapa
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Everything posted by tupapa
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Thanks for these charts DB; they are the perfect illustration of the principles outlined in this forum. Could you, alongside with the 1 min chart, post a 10K CVB bar chart or whatever you use to identify S/R and trend? It would be useful to get an idea of the context and personally, I am interested in knowing what S/R levels you take into consideration.
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Thanks for the analysis Pryme Time, very interesting but Im not sure if I share your Bullish Bias. What I see is a Buying Climax in mid 2011, followed by a sequence of Lower Highs that find Support around 1570 (The Upper Limit of that May-August 2011 Trading Range). Price is currently forming a Hinge that could lead to a Brekout to the upside or to the downside. If we breakdown, I would anticipate some support around the midpoint of the trading ranges indicated on the chart. If we break to the upside, I would expect some Resistance around 1790 and strong resistance around the Climactic High (1886). If I had initiated a possition during the Buying Climax (1886) or the secondary reaction (1790), I currently see no reason to exit my shorts.
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So would you say this is a good candidate for the short? Do you have any comments on my plan for this trade? 1- Short if we make a double top, or a lower high and volume stays low. 2- Stop loss above the last high (638) 3- First Target around 530 (bottom of the range) 4- Second target upper limit of the last trading range, around 430. I am very interested in reading your comments on this trade, would you say its a valid short for a Wyckoff trader? Thanks.
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Ive had my eyes on Apple for some time now and looking at the chart today it looks like a good candidate for a short, with a tight stop above 637. On the daily chart, I have noticed a dry-up in volume that could mean less buyers coming in, after that epic rally from 420 to 640. If we make a lower high or volume doesnt come in around 638, I see the stock falling. Buyers supported the price around 530 so that would be my first target for the shorts, if we break this level, we could fall down to the last trading range (360-420). I always thought that exponential rally from 420 to 640 was due to greed, not good quality buying. Would you call that move an "Air Gap" DBPhoenix? It seems to me like if we breakdown, from 530, it could be a big fall. IS anyone else following this stock?
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What does SOP AND SAR mean?
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Thursday and Friday were two very strong trend days that lead to a 100 point advance. We are currently inside the tranding range from the 20th to the 22nd of June, which is inside that large March Trading range, highligted with a rectangle, traders have been comfortable in this price range in the past. After such an advance, we can anticipate a period of consolidation, or not.... My thoughts for today, playing S/R Go long: Test of support (old resistance) around 2605 Breakout of 2626 (wait for a retracement) Go short Rejection of 2525-26 Breakdown of 2605 (wait for a retracement)
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So what now? We are approaching the Red Resistance Line at 2620, are you considering a short if price is rejected around this area? I think it would be very useful for everyone if you'd share your thoughts and entries in Foresight.
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I am leaving the NQ for today, thanks for posting all of this in real time, following your comments has been very interesting. I will go through these in detail and with more time. I have a lot to think about and my biggest problem today has been my urge to improvise and not follow my plan. If I had done the latter I would've finished the day with a nice proffit. Cheers maese, will try n learn from today....
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I didn't take that retracement at 0933 for two reasons: 1- We are to close to the Resistance line at 2564. 2- I didn't think the RET would allow for a small enough Stop. Instead I took the short at 0939 for the following: 1- Climactic volume at 0937 followed by a lower high and a dry-up in volume 2- I had anticipated ressitance at 2564 and was biased towards the short-side from the start the day. I considered entry #2 but was still thinking of the short... As for the short at 2570, I didn't consider it because I hadn't considered 2570 as potential resistance. Did I miss this level? So much to chew on....
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At point 1 I took the short that returned a small proffit, but I didn't take the long at point 2 because I diodn't know what to do with my last contract, clearly that would've been the best entry so far. After that I took a long at point 3, retracement after the BO with a target at support around 2580. Its looking like its going down, climactic volume followed by lower highs... Blue dots represent Stop Losses, is point 3 a valid entry ?
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Here are my thoughts for today, in Foresight: On a macro level, we are in a down trend since the 21st of june, when we broke the demand line and made a lower high on June the 22nd. The price decline continued on the 25th with and increse in selling pressure (larger spread). Yesterday there was a lifting of selling pressure (narrow spread) as we found support around 2520 and resistance around 2550-55. So the levels that may come into play today are: Resistance: 2550-55, I will take a short around this area if I see rejection, if we breakout, I will wait for a retracement 2565, I will exit my long and take a short if I see rejection 2582 Proffit Target. Support: 2520= Proffit Target for shorts. Edit= Following DBs Suggestion, I will paper trade 3 contracts and manage them as follows: 1st Contract= Break Demand/Supply line 2nd Contract= Lower High/ Higher Low 3d Contract= Move to breakeven and exit at target Target for shorts= 2526 Target for Longs= 2580
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That looks really nice, volume also gave us some indications today, both to take the short at 10:08, and to exit/take the long at 11:16. Do you use the TICKQ and volume bars in conjunction or do you find the information from both cloud your decision making process? Thanks for this great thread, I will post some Hindsight stuff tomorrow.
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Cheers DB, great feedback as always. From your reply, you seem to assume 2608 is a resistance level and a profit target, how do you know this in foresight? Is it just the midpoint of that trading range during the first hour? (Highlighted on my chart) Also, I see no clues from volume indicating a potential reversal as price approaches this level, do you see a Tick Divergence on your charts??
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I havent had time to post anything in foresight but I am still reading and following the Ftsee and Nasdaq futures using replay. I think I am starting to make some sense out of all of the invaluable information that is available, for free in the Wyckoff Forum. I am posting 2 charts of todays NQ action, I took these trades using market replay. The first is a 60 min chart showing S/R levels, I have noted with an ellipse the huge range bar that happened on tuesday, such a wide bar in such a short time period is what DB calls an AirGap, it leaves the market with no support between the high and the low. If sellers manage to brake through the highs, we can expect a sharp decline, to an area where traders feel more comfortable (Trading range). The second is a 1 min chart, with the same S/R levels noted on it. The first trade is climactic action, at support, followed by a retest on lower volume. The second trade is a break through support, followed by a retracement and a drop all the way to lower support.
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Not to well mate... I noticed a potential resistance around 2548.5 during pre-market activity but price didn't really react to it. I placed my first short at 10:32, after a lower high, indicating a reversal and placed my stop 1 tick above resistance (2552.5). Got stoped out instantly. I didn't take the breakout of 2552 because I didn't see conviction, neither did I get a decent retracement, it just didn't feel right... My second short was at 16:46, same reversal pattern, this time I plotted my supply line but exited the trade shortly as price broke the supply line and made a Higher Low. I stopped trading at this point and just aswell since I'm sure I would've kept trying to catch reversals of what would end up being a 30 Point trend day... DB, I read in one of ur articles that traders anticipating a trend day should switch from trading of S/R to buying strenght/selling weakness. Did anyone anticipate yesterday being a trend day? What criteria can a trader use to anticipate a trend day? Are the three bullish bars (green circle) at the market open enough of an indicator to expect this?
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Not many changes from yesterday. I have added a ressitance line around the 2541 area which was rejected 3 times yesterday, although it looks like buyers are pushing making higher lows and we could brake it today. I have also increased the thickness of the lower support around the 2505 area. Yesterday we found support at 2508 so I consider 505-508 as the lower support. Longs: Test of 2516 Test of 2508-2505 Breakout of 2551 Shorts: Rejection of 2540 Rejection of 2552 Breakdown of 2505-2508 Thanks for the post DB, I will look into using the TickQ and I am in England, hence the confusing Timeframe
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Jesus thanks for that, I only trade futures and the ammount of time I've spent looking at volume... I feel like a fuckin idiot.. Is there any point in keeping the bars if volume is that unreliable??? On trade Management; I like taking the first contract out as price breaks the demand line but I'm not sure about exiting at a Lower high, since I use a small bar interval and a Lower High on a 2 min chart is often irrelevant on a 5 or 15 min chart. I'd like to experiment exiting each contract using different bar intervals but its all in the air at the moment.
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Entry was a buy-stop 1 tick above the high of the 09:54 bar (2 min chart), this is my prefered entry style. In hindsight, I see a nice decline in volume during the retracement (09:50-09:54) followed by an increase in volume as the market moves higher.
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Done I guess the first question I should ask myself is, why did I enter above 2508, when my support line was at 2505, is it justifiable to take a reversal 3 points above my Support level? How "thick" is support?
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The chart has been added to my previous post, look forward to some feedback.
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I define a succesful test of support as a Higher Low and I forget about volume for the time being. Entry at 09:56 @ 2516.5 stop at 210.5 First contract out at 2529 (break demand line) Second contract out at 2527.5 (Lower High) This is all using a 2 min chart.
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The following chart shows my levels for today, blue is support/red resistance. My plan for the day is: Go long if: We test 2515 successfully. We test 2505 successfully. We breakout of 2564 I will wait for a retracement for comfirmation. Go short IF: 2554 is Rejected 2564 is Rejected We breakdown of 2505, again I will wait for a retracement. I have made the lines quite thick to ensure my focus is on S/R "zones" and not specific price levels.
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Not at all, theres nothing more helpful than a straightforward answer.. I don't find disconcerting that every retest does not turn into a reversal, I am well aware of the nature of probability. What I find disconcerting is the use of volume and its importance.. Anyway, I have backtested this reversal 2-3 months and have had a good % of winners, I am now forward testing it on a daily basis using market replay as DB suggests. Despite everything that has been said here, I will stick with "climactic volume, followed by a re-test on lower volume" I have noticed this setup pretty much on a daily basis, here is another example for those interested:
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Thanks for the post Josh, I understand what you are trying to get across and I am aware of the importance of recent and historical context when making a trading decision. I think my problem is I try to perceive price and volume in a very mechanical and objective way but there is a reason for this; I am backtesting the reversal setup I mentioned (Climactic action followed by lower volume on the re-test) in order to estimate the probabilities of success and I need to do this in a purely mechanical way. As I gain experience I guess I'll learn to trade more subjectively, thanks again for the reply.
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Some levels for today. [Note: I moved your post here because you make no mention of what you're looking for or what you plan to do. If you'd like to add all that, I can move it back to the Foresight thread. Db]