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tupapa
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Everything posted by tupapa
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I did both, the first trade I waited for the breakout, bought the retracement and got stopped out, to see price leave without me. The rejection of 92 worked well but overall a very quiet day, spent most of it ranging Tomorrow: Long after a test of 2468, if this holds, we could have another retest of the high around 92s. Short if we breakdown 2468, we could go back to the last range between 2400 and 2450.
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Today we poked above resistance and didn't hold, but trendlines remain intact and as long as 2468 holds, I will be looking for longs. My levels for tomorrow, using a 1 min chart since yesterdays levels were to far a part and most of them weren't tested.
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Ye, would be great to set one up!!
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Plan for tomorrows Eurostoxx futures. On the daily, we can see we are in an uptrend, the demand line has been respected so far. I will look for Longs: Test of Midpoint of yesterdays range (15 min chart) at 2466 Test of 2451-53 Test of 2441 Test of 2440 Shorts Rejection of 2492 Rejection bottom of yesetrdays range (15 min chart) at 2461 Rejection of 2452 Rejection of 2440, looking at the midpoint of yesterdays range as a potential target (2420) Rejection of 2400 Comments/Ideas are welcome
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Long 141250 Stop 141150 target 14145 First out 1350 Out second 1450
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Es Hinge, 1412 midpoint
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If the SPX breaks resistance at 1420, would you buy a retracement after the breakout in MS?
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If one takes the short, and assuming one is trading using daily charts, when is the right time to cover and re-evaluate? There's no supply line for guidance... Apple was supported around 570 on the 25th and on the 26th and on the 27th, buyers broke resistance at 580 and price closed at the high, is this a good time to cover? It looks so easy in hindsight....
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I think it was in the original course where I read that a trader should hide in his office, isolated from the world and listening only to the sound of the tape. This might've been viable 100 years ago, but is it advisable to trade like this today? For example, I trade s&p futures and the FED could anounce QE tomorrow, what do I do? 1- I disregard this, cut my self from the world and trade like normal. 2- I include it on my plan and do not trade. 3- I wait for the outcome, and put my Position depending on it. The same could be said if we trade the bund and Dragui is giving a conference or if we are an oil trader and a conflict kicks of in the middle east... Etc. So do we ignore everything around us or do we act uppon the news?
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That first retracement would've been the best entry and in hindsight it seems so obvious... in real time I had my doubts that stenmed from: 1- Price broke the demand line at 9:35, decisively. 2- Price made a lower low. So when price approached resistance at 2658 and that retracement occurred, I only placed a sell stop order (red dot), anticipating a lower high. I believe the correct thing, would've been placing both a buy stop above R and a sell stop below the retracement.
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My plan for today is trading near S/R areas shown in the 30 min chart. I will go short if: We reject resistance at 2659 We reject the midpoint at 2645-48 We breakdown support at 2630 We reject that small pre-market hinge at 2620.5 I will go long if: We test support at 2630 We test the midpoint at 2645-48 We breakout of resistance at 2657 We test that small pre-market hinge at 2620.5 I will act on any other S/R that may assert themselves and I wll "be available".
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I was looking at that trade on the ES and I have to be honest with you, I would've exited the trade at the re-test because of fear. I would fear a collapse in price that would immobilize me and take out my "catastrophe stop" with a huge loss that I couldn't tolerate. The following chart depicts that particular scenario that I most fear. It is because of this, that I always keep a narrow stop (3 NQ points max), I just don't want to lose more than that. So is this fear rational or completely unjustified and how do other traders deal with it?
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This reminds me of the Phantom of the Pits rule number 1 "The price action must confirm the position or get out quick" and it is something that I will implement in my plan once I have a well defined the criteria. So in this case I would have a cover stop, that would protect me from catastrophe, presumably below the last low at 2600. And I would also have a "mental stop" that would make me exit the trade if price invalidates the premise for the trade (at 2609, the white dot on my chart). What is the point of having a "catastrophe stop" and a mental stop? If a catastrophe happened and I lost my connection, wouldn't I want to exit the trade at 2609 anyway, since this level invalidates the premise for the trade? I hope I've made myself clear...
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So presumably, this is the example of a day when, even though a trader might have a plan, he should "be available" and leave the doughnut on the side? That trading range at the opening is a good example of accumulation, with a shakeout right? I didn't take the entry after the Skaeout, as it required a very wide stop. Instead I looked inside the 1m bars using the 5 sec chart and placed my buystop above that small congestion at 14:35. I have indicated my stop loss with a white dot, do you consider this a valid level for the stop loss?
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I didn't get time to post anything yesterday, but these are my thoughts after Mondays 90 min NQ trading. Trade 1 Exited to soon as has already been discussed by both of you. Trades 4 and 5 were late trades that I should've avoided, and for future trading I am making a note: I shall not chase a trade if I miss the entry, since this only leads to stop outs and breakevens. The correct entry was at 15:12 and here is an instance where volume was indicating a reversal: At 15:04 Climactic volume 15:08 Lower volume and no progress in price and at 15:09 price breaks the supply line. And all of this is happening around 2636, an important support level. DBphoenix, a few weeks ago you wrote that there is no point in using futures volume since it is notoriously unreliable, specialy on small bar intervals. Is there any point on keeping the bars and performing the sort of analysis described above? I guess what we are trying to do is what Wyckoff describes in Tape Reading and Active Trading: "In studying the distance and duration of each wave, if the buying waves are longer in duration and travel further than the selling waves, we get an indication that the immediate trend is upwards... Whenever the buying and selling waves seem to offset each other and no material strenght or weakness is indicated, the immediate trend is in doubt. Our position should then be neutral."
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Yesterdays 90 min trading.. I will share some thoughts and questions later on.
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lol you won't receive a warm welcome in this forum if you use the word "indicator" more than once, unless you are dissing them.
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That trade really made me doubt and once I got in it was clearly to late.. Main reason why I didn't take is how wide and next to eachother all those bars are... I thought it showed big indecision but its difficult to explain how I perceived it in real time, I guess I just didn't have the confidence to take the trade.
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My 90 Minute NQ trading for today, thanks DB for all the advice, everyday things make a bit more sense... If I am in a possition, and price retraces maing a lower high I lower my stop loss 1 tick above the LH (Points 3.1 and 4.1) The biggest factor in todays session was strong resistance at 2656, the top of the trading range we have been in for the last month and a half.
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Thanks for taking the time and interest to read the chart, I just had a look at the 15 sec and I can straight away see the benefits of using this bar interval for trade management. I am attaching the 15 sec chart with the supply lines corrected as you suggested for whoever might be interested. So presumably, by drawing the SL on the 15 sec chart, we track price closer and exit the trade sooner.... Yesterday this strategy worked fine, but isn't there a danger that we might exit the trade to soon and miss most of the move? Do you always draw the SL after a retracement on the 15 sec. chart or does this depend or do we need to be less mechanical about this? Thanks again.
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I thought you might suggest this and I am glad you have. In the following chart I have indicated each entry and trade management of yesterdays rejection of that midpoint, at 2588. I use a sell stop order 1 tick below the previous 1m bar and a stop 1 tick above support or the last Lower high (I am not sure if my stop placement strategy is correct). I assume I am trading 1 contract which is exited as we break the supply line, so lets see the entries: 1- Price moves through support but there is no follow through and each bar starts making lower highs, I place my sell top 1 tick below the support line (2588). There is a retracement, I draw the supply line and exit the short as we break this line, with a small proffit. 2- Price tests support and fails making a Lower High, there is a retracement and once again I exit with a small proffit. 3- Price moves through resistance and once again I enter as that wide range bar breaks the 2588 S/R line. I had to replay this in real time to see how the bar formed and it first breaks the support line and then moves higher taking my stop loss. 4- I re enter as we break support once again, draw a supply line and exit shortly at BE. 5- The final Entry, once again below the support level at 2588, price has made a series of lower highs since it reached 2594 showing clear weakness. Price finally falls and I wait for a retracement to draw the supply line, here I have my doubts, what do you consider a retracement? Does it have to be compromised by a minimum of 2 or 3 bars or can one bar be a retracement? In this case, which is the correct supply line, the first thin line or the thicker one? I look forward to your comments.
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Could you indicate where exactly you place your sell stop order (asuming you are using a 1m chart) like you did in the trading in 90 min thread? Could you also indicate the stop loss I see more than 1 point to enter in this chart and they wouldnt all succed so it would be good to see your exact entry point. Feel free to use my 1min chart for greater clarity. Many thanks.
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About that formation... Do you consider this a hinge, although ther is not a clear reduction in volume? Do you just ignore that volume spike towards the end of the triangle?
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Yes, I can defentely see how the best short was on Monday, the NQ made a double top, so did the sector and Apple made a lower high. I would've gone for a sell stop limit order below the friday low, with a stop above 620, or would you place a stop above 636? I couldn't be asked back then because I was planning a holiday and had no money to trade, but I can now see how analyzing the Sector and the Market can be of great value... About this: Is there a reason why you chose the SPX rather than the NQ? I've also noticed you've used a different Technology chart from mine, why is this? Excuse my ignorance but I'm not familiar with Sector and group charts.. Thanks.
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Nice to see I was on the right track when I suggested shorting apple a few weeks ago. Back then I couldn't be asked with the Sector/Market/group analysis but thought I'd give it a go today since I have some spare time. Start with the market: The NQ is finding strong resistance around 2560, forming a double top followed by a steep decline, selling pressure is stronger here than during the first decline, shown by a more pronounced supply line angle (1 and 2) Buyers have recently supporred price in a narrow zone, aprox. 2500-2520, if sellers brake this level, we can expect a further decline. We can also notice a considerable increase in volume during the last decline (2nd Supply Line) showing greater effort and conviction from the part of the sellers, a bearish sign. The Sector: The technology sector has also made a double top around 29.25, an important resistance level. As with the Nasdaq, the second leg shows an increase in volume and a steeper decline. Buyers supported price around 27.6, if we break this support level we can expect a further decline. Notice also the downwards Trendline from the peak in April, that hasn't been breached whilst that upwards blue trendline was broken in mid July. I don't see a Hinge here since there is no clear reduction in volume due to an agrerement in price, instead we see peaks of volume showing disagreement over value. Finally, the stock itself: We have found strong resistance around 620 and we arecurrently approaching support around 570, below this level there is a second support area around 545, if these levels were broken, they would comfirm my suspicions and the stock could fall considerably. Where to? Looking at the analysis I wrote a fe weeks ago, I see an Airgap, with little support for buyers to step in until the trading range marked with a box in the following chart.