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tupapa
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Everything posted by tupapa
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A follow up on Apple, starting with the technology sector: It poked above the last R level at 31 but wan't able to hold above this, showing some weakness. The SPX looks strong, as we recently broke previous highs and managed to stay above them. Now to the stock, starting with the daily: It is currently ranging between 660 and 680, yesterday it tested the highs and we saw a strong rejection, marked by strong volume (effort) and a long bearish bar (result). Before this, the market gave signs of weakness as we can notice the bars between Tuesday the 5th and Wednesday the 7th are very narrow, showing very little price progression, thus can be seen more clearly on the 60 min chart. So moving onto the 60 min, we can see more clearly how there was strong selling pressure yesterday and we are currently approaching the range lows. The volume yesterday was very strong, showing good effort and in the lat bar on the 60m chart, it could be interpreted as climactic. However, the last bar closed at its low, hence I assume there is little buying here, and selling pressure prevails. Today should be interesting since we may test the range lows, around 660. If buyers come in, this could be a buy opportunity, after a retracement. If buyers can't hold the stock above 660, a short could be appropriate after a retracement. So we have a situation where the Stock and the sector look weak, but the market is strong, what would Wyckoff do? Would he look for a trade or would he leave it until all three look bearish or all three look bullish?
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Db, going back to silver, you mentioned the best entry would've been on the 20th, however this is a breakout and I was under the impression that this was the least favorable entry as it has the highest price risk. Wouldnt' one wait for the pullback that in this case woiluld've never happened?? I am currently writting up my plan, and enterin on breakouts is something that I always avoid.
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Haha not trading the NQ today... but would love to read yours for once, I might even learn something
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Whats your plan for the day?
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Prymetime, did u enter the trade as gold left the hinge or did you wait for price to retest the midpoint?? Whats your plan regarding exits, and scaling in or out?? Congratulations for the trade, looks like it could carry on going for some time
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Today MSFT gapped down ant it is back in the range so the succesful retracement after the Breakout never occured. From your point of view, does this invaldiate the premise for the trade?
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Are you trading this? Be good to read ur analysis as this develops, in foresight.
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Db, would you consider this a legit entry, expecting a continuation of the trend or is the retracement to violent?? I'd be interested in your view on today's 90 min trading if you've traded the NQ today.
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I am sharing some observations I made during todays Bund session on price, volume and the climactic sequence as I am currently focusing and testing this set-up. The same sort of reversal occurred yesterday in the Dax and I perceived it in a very similar manner. It is something I am working on and eventually I hope to develop a set of rules to enter exit re enter, scale in, scale out effectively. The charts shows annotations I made as the sequence happened but it basically consisted of: 1- We are in a downtrend, reach support and there is climactic buying. 2- The test ends up failing and we make a new low, I draw a new SL and a parallel DL forming a channel, to judge the strength of Sellers vs Buyers. 3- We have again climactic buying and again the rally is poor and the test doesn't hold, we make a new low. 4- However, at this point I notice the selling waves are getting shorter and the trend channel serves its purpose, indicating buyers are entering more aggressively. 5- There is a third round of climactic buying, this time it is for real, and there is a genuine rally that is worth a few points. So my thoughts after witnessing this sequence today and yesterday are: 1- Each and everyone of this "climactic sequences" could've been potential entries since we don't know which one of them is going to lead to a genuine rally (if any). 2- It is up to the trader, to the decide how and when he is going to enter and how and when he is going to exit or scale out or move stop to Breakeven if the trade doesn't meet his expectations . 3- A trader cannot make these decissions in real time, he must test all options and decide what works for him, one can enter on the climax, or on the retest or on the break of the climactic rally but it is the "rules of managing the trade" that will eventualy "work" for that trader. 4-The set of rules must ensure winners are allowed to run and loosers are exited with the smallest possible loss. Hopefuly my deliberations will be of use to other traders, and if not they should help me in my journey. IF the sheriff doesn't deem the post appropriate for this thread let me know as I'd be more than happy to move it to a journal I'll be posting soon
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Think Ill wait till it resolves itself before entering.
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Are you guys considering this a Hinge?? (ES 30 min)
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Trading the DAX today, and this is my pre-market analysis: On the Daily, the uptrend has paused for the time being and we are currently ranging between 7091.5 and 6889. Lets take a lot closer at the 60 min chart to find relevant S/R Levels: Support is found at: 6919.5 6902 6872 Resistance: 6971 6992.5 7020 7050 Today I will be looking for reversals at either of these levels, looking at the other extreme of the range as a preliminary target, but I will let price decide where it wants to go and try to "flow with it" Be water my friend
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It is not shown on that chart. I didn't go long at the re-test of what, at the time, I considered the mid point of a tentative trading range. Instead I waited until we reached 60s where I was ready to short or go long depending on price action. We tested and buyers were more aggressive so I went long, and exited at the climax. So answering ur question, BO of the tentative range I visioned in my head..
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Well Wyckoff would've bought the Climax or the re-test after this, if not he would've taken the BO which is what I did. I was hesitant about going long at 141.4 because, although we hadn't auctioned around 141.3 after 08:36, we could traveled down there in search for buyers. It is just as good I didn't take the long because after posting there were various large range bars, volatility expanded and volume was very erratic which could've taken me out. My question was: Do you consider this a range from 30 to 60, although we haven't traded 30s again, or do you consider the range 45 to 60? Or do you not consider this a range at all?? If I was to consider this a range from 30 to 60, I would pass the long obviously as I don't trade in the middle of it. Just trying to interpret things here...
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Was trading the Bund today and we had big selling at the begging of the session that took us down to 141.30. Here, buyers came in aggressively and I noticed climactic volume and a successful re-test. After this price moved between 141.60 and 141.30, establishing a tentative trading range, however, price didn't visit 141.30 after the first rejection. I noticed how buyers stepped in around 141.43 but I was hesitant towards taking the long because it is the midpoint of what I thought could become a range. What are your thoughts on this DB, is it worth going long around 141.4 (on the second S) or would you wait and see if we breakout or test the extremes? (141.60 and 141.30)
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Ye I am aware of what you are saying and I need to focus on products that are "on the springboard" such as gold and silver a few weeks ago.. I wasn't able to go long silver on the 20th, instead I waited for the pullback and went long on the 31st, I know this is a late entry but at the same time I thought this trade has potential and don't wanna miss it, hopefully it won't mean I'll be the sucker left holding the bag.. I will keep looking until I find something on the springboard and post it here fore feedback... Would you say US equities such as the NQ and the ES are worth monitoring or is it also to late? We are approaching significant highs so would it be worth looking for a long term trade around here? Thanks for the feedback, great as always
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Around a week, why??
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On the Macro, we notice we are auctioning in a 3 year range, between 3000 and 2000 and price is currently testing the midpoint of this range, around 2500. The 2 year chart shows a resistance level at 2600 and support around 2400, that so far is holding. In the daily chart the more recent trading ranges and levels can be appreciated; The first box to the left goes from 2450 to 2550, with a midpoint at 2500. The second box to the right of the chart is the most recent box, with an upper limit of 2450 and a lower limit of 2440. So Potential Longs would be: Break above 2450 on a retest, and watch how price reacts at next Resistance, 2500. Break above 2500 on a retest, and watch how price reacts at 2550.
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Thanks v20814md, seems like the best option to way for the pullback and see how price reacts to 29s and 28s, if it gets there... Not sure what instrument I'll be using, any idea on whats the option for long term Silver/Gold trading?? Thanks again mate
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What do you mean shorting in an uptrend? We are in a clear down trend on the 15, 60m and 5hour bar interval, and thats largely why I went short. I guess the fact that buyers took price above the midpoint should've warned me against taking the short and at the time I didn't perceive it as a shackeout, and yes you are right, I shouln't get frustrated Do you guys place your buy/sell stop 1 tick or 2 ticks above the close of the bar on the 1 min bar? What would you recommend?
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I just looked at silver and would like to take part in what I anticipate could be a big move over the next few weeks, so after spending some time looking at the daily and hourly I am trying to come up with a plan on when to get in. Idealy, I would've gone long as we broke out of 28 but I wasn't following it... Looking at the daily and the 5 hourly, we found strong support at 26 and we've had a strong rally that has blasted through 30 which was resistance. On the 30 minute chart, I have noted a congestion between 30.20 and 30.80 which could give an opportunity to go long if: 1- We re-test 30.2 2- We breakout of 30.8, buy-stop above this level. I think a reasonable target would be 35-36 and I would re-enter if we move to higher ground. Stop loss below 30.2 I know this is a late entry but I'd like to hear other traders opinions on where, if anywhere, they you would enter the trade.
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What about the short at 1397? We leave the hinge to the downside, come back to the midpoint and I went short 1 tick below the midpoint on the 1 minute bar. Isn't this a very frustating potential entry?
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Short NQ 277175 Target bottom range
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Short 2467, 1st target 2463, lets see if 2462 holds this time... OUT BE Stoxx 12:20 Range between 65-62, maybe springboard... Long at 2464, SAR if we break 62
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Db, looking at the 10 min chart, would you say a short at rejection of 2477 (red line) is legitimate? Or would you pass it since the blue trendline prevails??