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tupapa
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Everything posted by tupapa
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If you look at chart 1, there is another rejection followed by a lower high at 07:47. The same in the 4th chart, price makes a LL at 138.98 and then a HL at 139.95. I forgot to point out that I consider any trade that doesn't lose money to be a winner.
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Please feel free to move it to the journal thread. Yes they are BE even trades, although in chart 1, there is a re-entry straight after the first entry and same on chart 4.
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Yep I did Here are the charts, as I mentioned in my above post, I am not a fan of placing a buy stop above the porevious bars close on the 1m chart, I'd much rather develop a mechanical signal such as a congestion on the tick chart or a HH, and HL,..
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As price approaches a level ®, I want to see buyers coming in aggressively and rejecting price at least 4 ticks. Then I wait for sellers to try again, and when price makes a HL or a double bottom, I enter with a buy stop above the previous 1m bar close. This can take place in a 3 tick range from the level I plotted, so If i S at 40, I will take the reversal between 43 and 37. My stop is place below the LSL. I am testing 2 lots, the first exited at the break of the DL, the second at the next LH or break LSL, whatever comes first.
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If that is the case I appreciate your interest. The stats I provided in my previous post are from a 14 day Bund backtest which I structure in the following way: 1- Draw S/R levels on the 60min charts 2- Plot levels on the 1 min chart and start scrolling, from left to right until I see the setup, then I draw the S/L and scale out according to my plan. From my previous bhacktesting in the NQ, I found this reversal setup work well and I can say the same for the Bund (as the previous stats show). When I day trade my plan the results are different due to several reasons, so far I have found the following issues: 1- Sometimes I struggle to find S/R levels, or the set-up occurs nowhere near my levels, so I hesitate. 2- On occasions I don't wait for enough confirmation and take a losing trade. 3- Often, waiting for the previous 1m bar to close and then entering one tick above forces me to use a very wide stop, hence I am looking at the tick' to try to find a more effective entry signal. These are only some of the problems I am finding when testing my plan in real-time, and yes, I am keeping stats of each trade I make and each setup individually, so I can evaluate each set-up and my performance and interpretation of it in real time.
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No that is obviously not the case, I have only been trading the Bund for 4 days so I have no statistics and I am still in the testing stage. Sho the stats I just gave you are for the backtesting of a reversal pattern that I am familiar with in the NQ, a rejection of S/R with a double bottom or Hl/LH and preferably with volume divergence. I knew from my past testing this pattern worked well in the NQ and from y backtesting in the bund, I have found it to also be profitable. I am not sure what you are trying to get to but if you want to me to accept my trading is shit, you are wasting your time since I am well aware of this. So as I said, I am currently working on my sistem based on reversals and pullbacks, I have nothing for you in terms of stats since at the moment I am just testing...
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So far my stats for the reversal pattern I am focused on is: Win/lose=71% Profit/loss=4.4 Max number of consecutive losers=3 Max Drawdown= 28 ticks Bear in mind that this is just for a 16 day sample..
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For my testing? I am still working on this since I don't have a large enough sample.. I presume you are referring to the probability of a reversal at S/R??
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Today's trading so far, I've started using the tick chart and clearly need more practice with it..
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Thanks for the view on the levels, I am keeping them in them in mind today and we'll see how this all pans out. Regarding the markets behavior at s/r levels I have found it to be consistent with what is taught in this forum, but the Gaps do cause some headaches.. I am not trying to trade this as I would trade the NQ, I am for the time being focused on reversals at pre-defined levels. I am also studying breakouts and pullbacks as part of my testing. I will post my results here once I have something more concrete. Thanks again for your views!
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My levels for tomorrow.. Price left the up channel it had been in during the past few days so will be interesting to see where it opens tomorrow. I will pay attention to the gren box, a test of either limit could dictate price initial direction.
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What a great post guys, thanks to both of you for going through it in such great detail. It shows how simple trading can be and how complicated we make it when we bring emotions into play.. Just one small question about the short at 52. Did you guys take the short at 11:13 or just the entry at 11:25? As I see this, the first rejection of R takes place at 11:06 and the re-test at 11:13, in which case one would've been stoped out at 2853 right (1 tick above the high)? I know this shouldn've stoped one from shorting again at 11:25 but just wanted to know if there was a reason why you would neglect it. Thanks again for the great work.
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Today has been difficult for me so far.. Price broke Resistance at 61 and I thought it could trend since there is little resistance above this level, however, sellers came in at 73 pushing price down. During the last hour price has been ranging between 52 and 64.
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Yesterday the Bund made new highs, auctioned above the critical 30 and 40 Resistance level and it stayed inside its trade channel. The best opportunities using S/R levels where the short of R at 07:40 and the long of support at 95. My worst trades where taken at Breakouts as I still struggle with entry timing and identifying a legit pullback. Yesterday was a proof of how important is it to stand aside when things aren't clear, such as price ranging above or below a level. In these cases, it is best to stand aside and let for a clear direction to develop.
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I am posting a trade that I missed last Friday due to a lack of preparation and experience plotting S/R levels. Thursday evening I uploaded a 10K CVB chart with the major levels I would be looking for on Friday, I am trying to be very disciplined and trading only of the levels I plot in advance. Over the last week, the bund has opened with many Gaps and finding good S/R levels has been challenging to say the least. On Friday, the market opened at 88 and the levels I had in this area where 65, 78, 95 and 09, as you can see on the following chart from my log. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/103/31381d1348155630-tupapas-log-21-09-levels.jpg I didn't take the short because I am trying to be extraordinarily disciplined trading only of levels plotted in advance, but after the session on Friday, I was wondering if sellers came out of nowhere or had I missed something... Looking back at the hourly chart, I noticed a small congestion that had formed the day before between 140.15 and 140.25, and where did price reverse? At the exact midpoint of this range. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/103/31399d1348240334-tupapas-log-bund-afternoon-21-09.jpg This demonstrated how important it is not just to understand the nature of S/R, but to put the effort into identifying the levels, and plotting them before one starts trading.
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Today was another range day with not many opportunities. The best opportunities, using the S/R levels I uploaded yesterday where: 2- Short at 92, when price can't break through R. 5- Short when price breaks below R and can't get back above it, a short of that double top at 98 would've been preferable but I didn't have a level anywhere near there, so I can't justify this. 6- Price breaks important support at 66 and loads of volume goes through, however, it doesn't feel jittery, like yesterday, it feels as if someone is holding it, buying everything thats on sale, price then makes a double bottom, a HL and trends for the rest of the afternoon, all the way above R. 8- If one didn't buy at 6, a buy at the breakout at point 8 could be good, however, I am not that experienced with breakouts and I'm still working on how to trade them. 9- That double top is a classic whyckoff example of climactic selling followed by a lower vol re-test. Again, I didn't have a level here but maybe I should include this as a must-take set-up, regardless of if I have a level or not. If one didn't sell here, selling weakness at 11 could be another option. The levels today again pointed towards the best opportunities. With some many gaps recently I find it hard to plot accurate levels, I need to study plotting S/R in further detail.
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Observations: 1- Price started of ranging above and below yesterdays high, showing strong indecision and I was trying to short it, pre-empting the breakout because I had a short bias. There's to things I can learn from today, first loose the bias and second, stay away of trading ranges, as soon as I spot one, exit my position and let it develop. 2- Wide range bars are very dangerous and I should avoid them as they lead to spikes and my stop getting hit, I should wait until there is clear weakness or strenght from the part of bulls or bears. 3- When price dropped below support, there was no hesitation and price wasn't jittery. Instead price ranged for some time and it felt almost as if “someone” was holding it. After this it made a double bottom, then a Higher Low and started moving up, into the range, this is a good opportunity for a long trade. Some snapshots of today's trading, I didn't take these trades but I thought it would be useful to annotate them on the chart. My only goal for tomorrow is to be more disciplined and trade only at S/R levels plotted in advance.
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Sorry, I didn't make myself clear as I interpret a takeout as a reversal pattern. For instance if price is approaching resistance and moves above the level with ease, but suddenly the sellers come in pushing price below resistance (wide range and rapidly). Then buyers try to push price above resistance but the bars are short and they struggle, resulting in a Lower High. That is when I enter the short, same thing for a long at support.
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Hi gringo, No real money for the time being, just testing.
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Feel free to commnet on anything and thanks for sharing your Trading Plan in the Wyckoff Forum.
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My plan for the bund tomorrow is trading of the following labels marked on the 10K Chart, I will only trade of support and resistance. So i will look to go long at support if price fakeouts or tests the following levels: Support: 139.66 139.5 139.38 139.25 139.12 139.02 I will go short if price fakeouts or tests the following levels: Resistance: 139.88 139.95 140.26 140.44
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I will start posting my pre-market and post market analysis here, I am currently trading the Bund but might also trade other instruments in the future. Feel free to comment or discuss any trades, and any feedback will be appreciated! So first of all here is a preliminary version of my trading plan. This is a very crude version of how I am trading and subjected to constant reviewing and improvement: I trade only of support and resistance found from at least two larger timeframe charts, the daily is used to obtain major levels and the 10k Volume and 5k Volume chart is used to find smaller levels. Entries: I define a succesful test/Rejection as: 1- A double bottom/top on the 1m chart. 2- A HL/LH on the 1m chart. I define a fakeout as: 1- Price beakouts through a level with apparent strenght, but is pushed back into the range rapidly, the bars are long and fast. 2- Price tries once again to move in the direction of the breakout, but it is slow and the bars are much smaller, resulting in a LH/HL I define a successful retracement after a breakout as: 1- Price breaks through a level, and instead of being pushed back into the range, it retraces slowly, the bars are short and price sits there. 2- Price might range above the level for some time before the move. Trade Entry: -In the cases in which the above conditions are met, I will enter the trade 1 tick below/above the previous bar, in the direction of the trend, I let price come to me Trade management: 1- First exit is the stop loss. 2- When price starts moving, I wait for a retracement and draw a D/S line. 3- The first lot is exited at the break of the line, once this happens I move the top for my second lot to breakeven. 4- The second lot is closed when price makes a LH or HL or breaks the LSH/LSL, whatever happens first.
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He obviously meant a short here... Yep Db was wrong, you are right, he is human after all...
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How specific should a trading plan and how long can it be, have any trading plans been published on this forum?? I am building my plan or system, based on testing, but how many "what-if scenarios" should be included in the plan, I feel like I could easily end-up with a very long list of setups and variations, depending on how price reacts. Is it feasible or even advisable to include in the plan every possible twist and turn that price may make? If so, what is left to the traders discretion, or is the trader simply a machine that executes the plan and responds to each what-if scenario flawlessly? Is that, in your opinion, the ultimate goal of the testing and planning process?
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Today the stoxx has spent all morning in a tight range, and now price got to R, I went short following my plan. I am thinking twice about this entry however, since last time price rejected Resistance, at around 11 am UK time, it wasn't able to test the lower limit of the range, instead it made a HL at 2516. So when price got up to R, at 12:27, is the short still a good trade? Or would the LH and failure to re-test the lows invalidate it?? I am currently trading but at the same time annotating my thoughts and the outcome of each trade, to improve my trading plan.