tupapa

Edit: 07:32 Not much going on so far, price found R at 84 but it is stuck in a small range. Looking at the daily, it is clear that we are in a small range/consolidation, which explains the lack of opportunities over the past week. The trend on the daily shows a LH followed by a LL but whether the current range ends up forming another LH remains to be seen.

Today's Bund so far. It is currently approaching R at 90-95, so a rejection of this level would be a legit entry. Below this I have support at 141.5, although it is difficult to find many levels, inside the macro trend we are currently in.

Thanks for the addition DB, I guess it all depends now on how price reacts at 13338, the S level you show on your chart. Something else to add to the equation is the AD, which by the way shows a divergence. The Dow double topped, however, the AD line made a slightly Lower High. So as I said in my previous post, I will wait for the rally. If the spread is narrow on the way up and price struggles, this would confirm the hypothesis that the strength balance has shifted from buyers to sellers, and one could go short, anticipating a LL that would confirm the beginning of the downtrend.

Thanks for your contribution Gringo, you were clearly right about the upside potential, unfortunately, it all happened overnight and we opened with a massive Gap! I got severely screwed yesterday, trying to play reversals at Support, which ended up being a costly strategy... and when finally, price reversed at 00, I was to nackered to consider an entry.. Something that I am noting with Das Bund, is that it tends to breach levels by a few ticks, it isn't accurate at all and often, it reverses in the middle of nowhere... I will have to work on re-defining my set-ups, back to the testing room over the weekend As for today, as things stand these are my levels on the 15m and 60m charts... I have to say I am finding it challenging to find reliable S/R levels. So as things stand, I am looking at a short, if price rejects 48-54 and long if price is supported at 05-00 Also Gringo, glad to see ur doing well with the NQ Keep on the hard work mate!

A recap on the Dow: 1- Yesterday it broke the DL that Gringo shows on his chart with decision. 2- The down bars are very wide and they close at the low, showing strong selling pressure and very little buying. 3- Price yesterday made a Lower Low, indicating the start of a potential down trend. 4- So Now we wait for the rally, and if it shows weakness, we have a LL, followed by a LH which is a downtrend, and a reason to go short. One could place a stop 13661, which is a double top. Gringo, I know you mentioned 14000 as the longer term Resistance, but sellers are clearly asserting themselves right now, and there is no guarantee that price will ever test 14000. I believe the 4 points above, plus the analyss of the wave strucure could lead to a nice short. I look forward to reading other thoughts on this.

A bund update and tomorrows levels. Traders are still finding value between 141 and 141.5 so a short arround any of these areas would be legit. A breakout above/below one of these levels would also be part of my plan.

Ah thanks mate was totally unaware of this.. Regardless i think the index is in an interesting position, lets see how thd week develops. Any other thoughts on this are welcomed

Yesterday the Dow Jones chart cached my eye, as I noticed unusually high volume on September the 21st, so I decided to start following it and make an assessment of market conditions. Starting with the weekly, price is approaching all time highs around 14,000, this level was rejected aggressively in 2008 and price is now attempting to test it. In 2009, price climaxed around 6500 and since then it has had 4 up waves, we are currently in wave 4, which is finding R around 13,700. I noticed how each wave is shorter than the previous,both in terms of length and time, which suggests a lessening of buying pressure and/or an increase in selling pressure. Now on to the last 6 months action, which represents wave 4, we can notice how price has broken R at 13,300 and the TrendLine remains intact, so far so good, but what I thought was most interesting about this chart was the sudden increase in volume marked with a red circle on Sep. 21st . Is this evidence of distribution? I think it will be an interesting one to follow over the next few weeks.

Looking at the 5h chart, crude is in a downtrend and I agree with most of your levels, however, I'm not sure I would rely to heavily on all the levels you have plotted between 88 and 90.5, as I don't see price spending enough time there to provide decent support. If you rely on small congestions on the 10m chart that's fine, I tend to look for larger "value areas" on higher bar intervals (at least the 30m).

Yesterday was my best day so far, in terms of being patient and waiting for the best opportunities at the extremes of the range. A short was executed at 76 and a long at 16 and they both where very profitable trades. The thing I am post pleased with is being patient waiting for price to test the levels. Today the same plan applies, focus on rejections of S/R or any major Bout, in which case I will wait for a ret. I have identified S at 13-10, and R at 79, and 91-95.

HOD= Heritage Open Days?

Yesterdays plan certainly served its purpose, unfortunately, I wasn't trading at the open and mised the best opportunities, that would've been: 0= Buy ret aftert BO 0.5= Sell Rejection I lost a lot of money geting long at 1-2-3, and in hindsight, I should not have taken so many entries. At 4-5, I traded Ret after BO, the first was a loser and second a big winner, I still need to backtest this pattern thoroughly, which I will be doing in the next few days. At point 6, I noticed how on the re-test, price wasn't slow but fell rapidly, showing (I interpret) a lessening of buying pressure, if there was good buying here, price shouldn't fall with such ease. Around 10, price found support at 44 but I didn't have a level here and I passed this, at some point I'll have to decide what to do with ranges in my plan. The afternoon was a disaster, as I tried to sell 69-72 repeatedly and with little success. I also rushed into Bout trades at 11 and 13, which again shows how I need to spend more time testing this.

I don't see anything wrong with using the levels you have plotted on the 240m chart, you might want to use Volume At Price to plot the exact VPOC for each range. If you feel like you need more levels, you could always look at July using a smaller bar interval (60m maybe) and see if you find any other price areas that traders payed attention to.

Alright Folks, after reflecting on my trading performance and taking on board the great advice I have been given by other Wyckoff traders, I have come upon the conclusion that I need a much more specific and more clearly defined approach in my trading, and that starts by creating a clear plan of what I expect before the day starts, so I know what I would do in each scenario. Even though, this is the most detailed plan I have created so far, I am sure the market will surprise me tomorrow and behave in different ways that I haven’t anticipated. I am seeing this is a process and hopefully, as I gain experience, my plan will become more elaborate and it will foresee a greater number of scenarios. For tomorrow, I am looking for trades at 4 different areas where price has reacted over the last few days: The first support is found between 141.13 and 141.10, Second support is between 141.31-141.34, first resistance is 141.69-141.72 and second resistance is 141.92-141.95. I have also annotated 2 midpoints of previous ranges, where the Market Profile shows a volume POC, however, I don’t want to plan trades at these levels since I think the four outlined above are enough for the time being. Now on to the Scenarios: Scenario R stands for a reversal or rejection of a S/R level. This setup is triggered when the following occurs: 1- Price moves towards a highlighted area and buyers/sellers come in, pushing price in the opposite direction at least 4 ticks. 2- Price comes back to the area slowly; there is a lessening of pressure and it fails to make a HH/HL in the direction of the trend. 3- 3- At this point the most relevant DL/SL has been broken. Re-entry Rules- In some occasions, the trade might be closed at the break of the DL/SL. The following conditions would call for a re-entry: 1- Price breaks the DL, retraces but makes a Low higher than the previous. 2- Price comes back all the way down to the LSL and finds support once more. 3- Price comes all the way down to support, breaks the level but is swiftly propelled back above Support, in which case I will wait for a Higher Low to enter. Entry- The trade is entered 1 tick above the previous 1m bar close, in the direction of the reversal. Stop Placement- Stop loss is place below the LSL, above the LSH Trade management- SL/DL are drawn as price makes new lows and the trade is exited at a breach of one of these lines Scenario BO stands for breakout, however, the trade setup is the retracement after the breakout, not the actual breakout. The setup is triggered when the following occurs: 1- Price breaks a level with ease, and there is no effort to push it back above Support/below Resistance, it falls feels jittery at the lows and falls fast. 2- A retracement takes place, which must get close to the previous level, it must be a slow retracement with low pace and volume drying up on the way up, as new buyers rejects higher prices. (Break of Support) Re-entry Rules- In some occasions, the trade might be closed at the break of the DL/SL. The following conditions would call for a re-entry: 1- If price comes back to the pullback level and finds support once more, an entry is legit and a new Sl/DL should be drawn. Entry- Once buyers have tested the old level, the trade is entered 1 tick below/above the close of the previous 1m bar in the direction of the trend. Stop Placement- Stop loss is placed 1 tick above previous S/R level Trade management- A DL/SL is drawn when if price makes a new H/L in the direction of the trend and the trade is exited when this levels id drawn.

Thanks for taking the time to put our discussion together Db, seems like a good idea to get a few others involved so we can all look at how a trading plan is put together Look forward to reading other traders views on this.

I'd like to share 2 trades that I should've but didn't take during the day and I am know incorporating in my trading plan. The first chart shows friday's bund morning session, notice how price ranged between 8:40 and 09:00, buyers won the battle pushing price up to R at 69, but here sellers pushed price back down to 141.50-48, where buyers come in again "defending" the midpoint of the range (Volume By Price showed a POC here). Buyers won the battle again, and succeed in pushing price up, all the way through Resistance. The second chart is of Thursday's session and it illustrates a similar concept, only this time it is a hinge that provides the support. Price bounces of 140.71 on 3 occasions during the session, specialy aggresive was the second bounce, represented by the first green circle, where price touched the level and got rejected instantly. Does anyone else find these MidPoints to be useful for their trading? Feel free to share any ideas or views on how to trade these.

Hello Tomer, I've been looking at your chart and was wondering how come you went long at point 1 so close to R? Also you mentioned a few times you pased a trade because you didn't see enough buyers on the tape or enough sellers. Are you using a price ladder to read the volumes? I've been observing the ladder recently and often, focusing on how much volume is going through can be deceiving and lead to hesitation so I am considering ignoring it and focusing on the tick chart. For instance, yesterday I took a short at point 2 in the following chart: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/103/31576d1348833829-tupapas-log-28-09-morning.jpg I was looking at the ladder and saw big size hitting the offer at 141.57 for some time, which made me doubt, but in the end price fell another 10 ticks. Thanks for sharing ur trading.

Hello Db, I am uploading some examples of my Bund testing. I hope these are more clear and look forward to hearing your views on the testing. As I mentioned above, I look for S/R levels on the 30m chart and then scroll the 1m chart from left to right until I find the reversal set-up. I enter 1 tick above the close of the previous 1m bar and exit at the break of the DL. I would like to start using the tick chart in order to find a better entry and not have tot rely on the close of a bar, which as we all know, is an arbitrary criteria. Unfortunately, my charting software doesn't provide with historical tick data, so I will have to study this in real-time.

I thought this was a very nice trade in terms of Wyckoff. I know there is no accumulation in futures, but the principles still apply. Buyers are taking everything thats on offer around 2790, and price spent some time down here, so the extent of the move one might anticipate is large. The first entry is exited at the break of the DL, but shortly after, price makes another HL and another opportunity to enter, at this time, the DL remains intact so there is no reason to exit.

Ye sorry it was a misquote. Ah I'm glad you asked, I didn't get much time yesterday and today is again busy but I should have something for you and the rest of the forum over the weekend.

I meant 279575...... Don't worry, my question was more directed towards Gringo, who I know is also learning.

Would you be looking for a short now around 575? As Price re-tests the previous Support?

Support at 96 but nothing outrageous in terms of volume, now re testing the lows... I am just watching by the way. Just breaking the lows and seems like little support, the tentative air gap is acting like it is. Just dropped 5 points in 3 min, what a great trade that would've been.

A much better afternoon from my part with more clear opportunities. My biggest error was because I got stoped out at 73, and then jumping into a trade at 82 because I was to pissed of to buy Support at the time at 84. Another important error was not holding to my short at 88 for longer (second lot), need to have more trust in myself, place the stop above AR high and let price test the lows.

Today's trading so far, The biggest regret is not taking the long 10:18, as price found S at the previous range midpoint, that represents a lot of volume. Something else I noticed in hindsight was I didn't exit my long at 84, although there is so much vol at 93, a pre-defined Resistance. Regarding yesterdays trading, my biggest mistake was not perceiving the trading between 10:00 and 11:00 as a rejection and LH, instead I was stubborn looking for a pullback, it shows how flexible one needs to be.