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tupapa
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Everything posted by tupapa
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Today I followd my levels but failed to execute my setups properly, I did the opposite of what my plan says, I didn't go long when price bounced and rejected, and I went long went price fell against support and the sellers were nowhere to be seen... Tomorrows plan is as follows. At D look for a long on a Bounce, if we break below D, look for a short on a retest from the downside. At C look for a short, if we move above this, look for a long on the re-test. At B look for a short, if we move above look for a long on a retest At A look for a short. If we break below D, the next level is E, where I will go Long on a bounce, Below this its hard to find any levels, but maybe that VPoc at 84.
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The day isnt over but this is tomorrows plan so far, I will make any pertinent changes in the morning. Longs: Bounce of 30, Bounce of 15, Bounce of 142.00 Move above 142.58 Move above a42.73 Shorts Rejection 142.58 Beloow 142.30 rejection of 142.73
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Today was my worst day so far, technycaly my mistakes were: 1- Didn't wait for clear bounce and hesitated, wasn't sure what I was looking for because I still havent clearly defined my setup. 2- To much focus on correlation with Dax and S andP 3- Realized but didnt take into account the fact that the market was making Lower Highs and Lower Lows, hence there was no reason to go long. 4- My plan was incomplete, I had no plan for price breaking below the range lows. 5- Trading counter trend. Psychologicaly, I also showed many mistakes, such as fear of missing out and fear of taking a loser! So its been a shit day, I've been thinking about blaming the market, because maybe it doesnt obey the principles of the wyckoff forum, but in reality, I know its my fault. I still havent defined my setup precisely and every time I start to test it, I get lost as every day seems different.. I foresee a long time before I start trading live, and a lot of work ahead...
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Yes Gringo, that is exactly what I was reflecting upon last evening and today, thanks for bringing it up. Yesterday I had to much of bullish bias, I thought the series of Hls would favor a break to the upside but that clearly wasn't the case. Today i will do what you've suggested, and trade only the extremes, which may mean taking only 1 or 2 trades during the day.. I will also use the midpoint for entries. So looking at the chart, we are in a clearly defined range and I will look for a long at a bounce of C (83-91 area). Look for a short at a rejection of A (44-48 Area). Look for longs at a break and bounce of B, which is the VPoc of the range. For each trade, the target becomes the Vpoc for 1 lot and the otherside of the range for the other. I will also exit the second lot if price makes a LH or breaks the LSL/LSH The most difficult thing I am finding is how much the Bund moves above/below my S/R levels. I will also trade a breakout of A or C, in which case I will enter on a retracement, and use Dbs trend rules for exits. Thanks Gringo and look forward to reading more of ur comments! (and great work on the daily trading thread ) P.S= I am also including 143.04 as a potential level. Traders have payed attention to it recently and it is the lower limit of the higher volume distribution (143.04-143.22) inside the larger distribution.
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I didn't trade on Friday but here is the plan for today. The Bund is still in the range, but over the past trading days it made a series of Hlows within the range, which favors a breakout to the upside. The market opened a few minutes ago at 11 and buyers came in aggressively. My plan is to look for: Longs at rejection of C, D or E Longs at a breakout of A Shorts at a rejection of A I find it difficult to justify a short that isn't at the top of the range, since the Daily trend is up, and a breakdown below E could easily lead to a fakeout so today I will favor the long side, unless we break below E and start trending down, in which case I will refer to the levels for the previous range published a few days ago.
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Today was an interesting day, I lost control trying to buy below 03, instead of looking to short, but level C at98 was so tempting, I also got really angry at the market. I took a good long at 89 that was part of the plan but I didn't hold it for long enough, the target should've been the range midpoint, at 13 and the top of the range, around 26, also price gave no indication that it was about to reverse before reaching the targets, so something to work on tomorrow. For tomorrow I see 3 distributions, , price bounced of 13 again today, reinforing the importance of range 2s midpoint. Tomorrows plan is: Long on a bounce of C Target is A Long bounce of D Target is b and A Long bounce E or F Target is D and C Long break of A use Demand line Short Rejection A Target is C Short rejection C Taget is D and E Short rejection of D target is E and F
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Today started of really with a grat trade according to my plan and then it went down hill.. I missed the short at 47, not sure why I didnt take it, was to pleased with myself for the good long I think. Once we broke S at 25, I wasnt patient enough to wait for a reversal at 03, and when I finally placed my bid I didnt get filled. This was followed by a series of mediocre trades, around my levels. I also struggle to concentrate after 12:00, I feel fully focused from 7 to 11 but after this I really struggle.. Maybe something to think about. Tomorrow, my goal is to follow my plan, try to trade fully focused from 7-11 and If I've met my target for the day, stop trading, simply observe the market. Tomorrows plan: Long at a rejection of C. Target is 14 and 22 Long at a Break above A, wait for Ret. Target using trendlines and LH Long at a bounce of D. Target is 40 and 46 Long at a bounce of the midpoint at 14. Target is 26 and 39 Short at rejection of A, target is 34 and 27 Short at a rejection of the midpoint at 34, target is 24 and 14 Short rejection of D, target is 14 and 04
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Today was Veterans day and an extremely quiet day, I stuck to the plan for most but missed two good entries. I also tried to hold the trades but this was extremely challenging. Not much has changed for tomorrow in terms of the plan.. I adjusted the range upper limit Resistance to 16, so this could provide S tomorrow, if we open above. So I will look for longs at: -Rejection of C, Mpoint or D -on a test of B from above, not sure about this level, it was tested today and yesterday but I will have to see a very clear bounce to buy here. -Break above A, I will buy a Ret Shorts; - Rejection of A -Rejection of B -Break below D, I will sell a ret
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12/11 I am going back to planning my trades in foresight, I think I need this as a way to contrast my plan with my performance, and it is the only way to measure my trading objectively. The Bund has been rising over the past few days, so we could have a correction (or not). So tomorrows plan is: 1- I will go short on a rejection of A, the target for this trade is B. 2- I will go long on a rejection of B-C or D, the target here becomes A. 3- If we break above A, I will buy a retracement, there is no resistance in the hrizon, so the first lot is exited at the break of the DL, the second lot is closed at the break of the LSL or LH, whatever comes first. 4- If we fall below D, I will short a retracement, the target of which becomes E. 5- If we fall below D, I will go long on a rejection of E, the target then becomes D
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A follow up on the dow, it seems that I pegged the top of the bull market A couple of days ago I mentioned that after such a violent move from 13,600, Wyckoff (and after studying his material, myself) would anticipate a normal crrection of about 50%. I suggested this could be the ideal place to add to our short possition, if one wasn't satisfied with his current size, I also provided this image, to illustrate the potential scenario: # And what happened today? And I finally understand why asking "where to enter" is the wrong question, if one understands the dynamics of supply and demand, S/R and everything that is described in so much detail in this forum, the exact entry point or trigger is simply a question of personal choice, and depends on the ammount of price vs information risk that one is willing to take... This is something that Db writes over and over again but for some reason, I hadn't internalized up till now, thanks for everything maestro!
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Here are my NQ levels for today, initially, I see no reason to trade until price tests either the 2652-2647 Suppport area, or the 2679 Resistance area. I case price broke below 2647, I have added the relevant levels from the 5h chart, this is well known territory, however, its been a while since traders visited the 2520-2650 range, would you guys still give the same importance to the levels or would you rely on finding S/R on the way?
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Morning everyone, here are my Bund levels for today, didn't get a chance to post them last night. There has just been a very nice rejection of 140.12, which I missed becuase the trains were late and I wasn't at my desk from the open... Lets see how the day evolves. As things stand, I am looking for a long if price retests 140.12, a Long on a test of 23, and a short on a rejection of 140.40.
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Not at all Gringo, I really appreciate yours thoughts and comments, and yes, this should probably be moved to the journal thread. The 2 main issues I am facing with the Bund are: First of all, the gaps, which as you point out create problems with S/R levels, and secondly it often price reverses in the middle of nowhere. However, it is not all that bad, and the reason why I am hesitating about moving to another instrument, is because I feel I am starting to get a feel for the Bund, most mistakes I make are due to my emotions or my stupidity, but I feel like I am improving. Also, all the hours of testing I am doing, they would be in vane, I would have to start all over again, with another market, I am a firm believer that when one makes a decision, he should stick to it unless it is truly intolerable. So, for instance, today's Bund action so far hasn't been excessively challenging. I posted the levels last night, and here is how price reacted to them: The first chart shows a reversal at Support, first price breaks the SL, violently, it felt as if price hit a wall, then on the retest price fell slowly and calmly, which indicated selling pressure was lessening. After this, 2 economic figures where released and price blasted through my 2 R levels, 140.09 and 140.25 Last night I pointed out that there was little to stop price from rising to 140.79, which is where I had my next R levels, however, sellers came in and rejected price at 140.63, since I didn't have a level here, I missed this reversal.
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Thanks for keeping us updated on this Gringo, looking at the NQ weekly chart, I noticed a major DL remains intact, and as you point out in your previous post, we are approaching a very important level (the top of the range around 2650). Would you consider a SAR here, if buyers step in, due to the Support, major uptrend and demand line confluence? I am thinking one could at least expect a test of R at 2800, or even the top at 2880? Look forward to reading your thoughts on this.
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I will look into it Dakine, whats your trading style? Is it based on wyckoff, using a small bar interval?
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So, it appears that Dow sellers mean business, yesterday we blasted through a major trendline, and the 13100 support level. Now the next level to look for is 13000, here one would anticipate some support, but you never know, we could just slide through it. It's worth pointing out that after such a prolonged and violent down move, Wyckoff would expect some sort of correction, a normal 50% reaction for this 500 point drop would be 250, which would take us up to around 13,350. This would be no reason to panic, and could be a good opportunity to add to our position, if one is not satisfied with his current size. So as a recap, we now have support at 13,000 at R at 13,380. As things stand, there is no reason to close our shorts.
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Well, I trade mainly the european morning, so the Dax and eurostoxx are 2 other options. I chose the Bund because it seems like a nice balance between the daxs high volatility and the stoxxs low volatility. Why, what are ur thoughts on the bund?? the thing is, Id rather not jump from one market to another, I'm not sure if it will be good for my development, now that I started with the Bund, I feel like I should stick with it.. you know what I mean?
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Tomorrows Bund levels, today we found R at 47, so my plan is to look for a reversal at either of the levels on the 15m. If we happen to break above 140.47, I will wait for a retracement, there is little to stop price from rising to 140.79, which is a recent value area and a reasonable target. If we stay inside the range, I will use the same S/R levels as targets.
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Yes, I define trend as a directional move, followed by a lower high and a Higher high (for an uptrend) I define strong as a wide spread, this shows there is strong interest in the opposite direction. I am not including volume in the testing. The struggle is shown by the contraction in volatility (narrow spread), and typically the bars will start arching, leading to very little material progress to the upside. Yes, I would like to enter at a better price, but since I have only started the testing, I don't think there is any point on testing a hole year of specific entry points on the 10 second chart, this would take months. I thought it would be best to define a more generic entry, using the 1m bar and once I have an idea of the patterns statistics, work on refining the entry using a smaller bar interval. I don't take S/R into account, again to simplify the testing, at this point I am already having to look through 365 1minute chart, once I have the generic stats, I will look at including S/R.
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None, just because price is at support, doesn't mean you have to enter. Support is just an area were one might find a trading opportunity. See this and this, where I outline my reasoning for a potential entry that materialized itself. Let me make clear my friend, that I am by no means an expert, and I am still learning to judge the markets by their own action, by comparing the lenght and duration of the buying and selling waves, and I do not claim I can predict the future action of the market, nor is this my objective. As things stand, there is no reason to exit the short, if however, buyers step in at support, a long should be executed.
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Hello Mightymouse, first of all let me inform you that there is nothing after-the fact about this as the box and lines were posted before the fact, here. The boxes certainly are convenient, and they are a great way to locate “value” in a chart. Markets can either trend or range. When they are ranging, they oscillate between support and resistance and boxes are a great way to show this! (If you are interested in this you should read the threads on this Forum, start with Cajas Famosas and then move to The nature of support and resistance). Regarding the reciprocal quality of support and resistance, I believe the theory behind it is that those that sold at resistance, are going to hold on to their losses until price reaches their entry point, where they will be glad to close their position at breakeven, and remove the pain. The way I see it is, support is the price where buyers come in, they are confortable placing their bids because they expect price to go up. If price instead makes a LH and comes back to their entry point, they might get scared and close their position, that’s why It’s important to monitor price at these inflection points, because it’s where buyers and sellers have the most to lose. This might all sound very confusing to you but, if you are interested in this there is plenty of information here, just take your time with it, I promise there is nothing nonsesical about it All the best.
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So the scenario I presented a few days has materialized, the dow made a LH on thursday and on friday it plunged, as I am sure you all know. I believe price is at an interesting juncture. It is sitting at Support, but on friday there was no sign of rejection so it all depends on how price behaves this week. If buyers step in, they may reverse price but if they don't come in, sellers could push price through 13300. If we break the lows, that small congestion around 13200 could provide support, below this, the next level is 13000
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Thanks for opening this thread Niko, I think it will be very useful for folks to discuss entry strategies as it is the most important part of a strategy, without and entry, there is nothing to manage! I am currently testing 2 types of entries, one is a trend continuation set-up and the other is a trend reversal set-up. I have found both set-ups to occur in any timeframe and any bar interval, to show this, I am providing 2 examples of the reversal, one is on the Bund using a 1 minute interval and covering a timeframe of a few hours, the second example is a daily silver chart that covers a few weeks. So onto the reversal pattern, I am using the example of an up-trend reversal but the principles also apply to a reversal in a downtrend. 1- First of all I am looking for a trend, this might seem obvious, but without a trend in place there is nothing to reverse! This is a reminder, that there is no point on blindly searching for a reversal pattern, in a market that isn’t trending. 2- The rejection, this is the first signal of a potential reversal: What I am looking for is a strong wave in the contrary direction of the trend. 3- The test and confirmation: This is the final phase of the reversal sequence, and what I am looking for here, is a contraction of volatility, and a struggle, from the part of the buyers to continue with the uptrend. This confirms that buying pressure has been exhausted for the time being. 4- At this point, one can enter the trade at the break of the low of the previous bar, and wait for a trend to develop in the opposite direction. It is a simple and very simple setup, the opposing wave at point 2, tells me there is strong interest in the opposite direction, and the shorter and slower wave during the test (point3) confirms the exhaustion. Now it is up to the sellers, to confirm the reversal. As I said, I have only just started testing this sequence, and I am doing this to answer a few questions: 1- What conditions trigger an entry? Is it simply price breaking the low of the previous bar? Is a double top on the 1m chart enough to enter? 2 or mars that fail to make a new high? 2- Where do I place my stop? 3- Under what conditions do I exit, before my stop has been hit? (The market doesn’t behave as I anticipate it would) 4- Under what conditions do I re-enter? 5- How do I manage the position? I am sure more questions will rise as I carry on the testing. Testing this sort of thing takes many hours, and whilst I am doing this, I am finding new questions and doubts which can be frustrating.. It is an absolute mission but it should give me the confidence in the strategy! One more thing I have started to play with is HI-LOW bars, I find it much easier to stay tuned with the flow of the market, It allows me to judge the strength of buying and selling waves instead of focusing on the open and close of the bar, which as we all now are irrelevant.
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yesterday and today I got absolutely raped and I believe it's because I haven't been paying enough attention to the bigger picture, I have been to focused on the 1m chart, which should only be used for entries. So for tomorrow, I plan to only take trades at either of the following levels: Preferably a Reversal, although if price blasts through them, like it did today, I will take whatever retracement shows on the 1m chart.
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Gringo, what is your criteria to initiate a short? Break of DL and LH on the 2h chart? Or do you use a smaller interal?