tupapa

I didn't have time to comments on my trading at the office but theres a few things that are worth pointing out: Started well, shorting according to plan and it was hard to hold for more than I did, I didn't take 1 lot out at the first support, which would've increased my profit. Before Zew, I went long and this was very risky, the sim stoped out at 57, but a real fill would've really fucked me over.. This is something to bear in mind in the future, before an important figure such as Zew, it is probably wiser to be flat... After this a few scalps playing the momentum but very mediocre trading in general. And at 13:00 finally, price looks like it might be testing my resistance level at 54, but it can't get above 50, where we have some singleprints, it reverses at 50 and I miss out on the entire move. This is something else to include in my rules, if price can't get to resistance, a short is legit since it reinforces the weakness. At 14:00 another missed short because I wasn't willing to take the risk, was thinking it was best not to trade before the US opened and best to trade at the extreme, just wasn't willing to take the risk. Then at 15:00 a decent long as bids where holding but again I got out before my stop was hit, I then got in again which is good, but only took 1 lot out at 10 ticks and 1 at BE. THen I got in at the Dbottom but was to tired and not feeling up for it so took 2 ticks, terrible risk reward... Mistakes: 1- Not taking a trade because it reversed before my resistance level. 2- Not letting price hit my stop or prove me right. 3- Not using the management strategy in the right way, Taking the first lot out at resistance and the second scale it out. 4- Not taking a trade because the US was about to open.

Tomorrows plan: At A look for longs or shorts if we break below. At B look for a short on a rejection. At C, look for short on a rejection or long if we break and hold above. At D monitor price for a potential short, although I am hesitant of the VPOCs reliability as S/R At E look to short a rejection or longs if we break and hold above.

Today's trading went downhill since I missed the move at the open, went short instead of long at the rev. Tomorrow I will pay attention to the following levels: At A I will short a rejection, I will also keep an eye for 97, which is the VPOc for that range. At B I will short a rejection, or look for longs if we hold above. At C I will short a rejection. At E I will go long on a rejection or short if we break and can't hold below. At F I will go long on a rejectio, if we break below this, I will keep an eye for price at G and H, but the main support is 14.

Thanks John, this is great stuff. I will keep my eye on 65 and see how the day pans out.

My plan for tomorrows Bund trading. Traders are currently finding value between A and C, so these are the main levels to look for a reversal or a Breakout. At A, I will go short on a rejection. At B, I will go long if we hold above, target becomes A for the first lot, and I will scale the second lot At C I will go long, the target becomes B. If we break below and can't hold, I will go short, and the target is D and E. At D I will go long on a rejection and see how price reacts at C. There are two other levels that I am not sure if are relevant: Y is the Mpoint of the range, and price was supported here late Friday session, so a long could be legit on a bounce. The VPoc of the current range is 60, so this could also be a relevant level. Does anyone have a view on this? Would you consider Y to be a relevant level?

This is my performance review for the week, I’m not sure if anyone is reading this but if you are have any suggestions or comments on my trading and performance and how to improve it, I would really appreciate this! If you are interested in my trading methodology, I will be more than happy to answer any questions, regarding entries and my trading plan, which as you can see, is extremely simple. Moving on to the performance side of things, there are 2 areas that I need to work on, the technical and the emotional. They are both equally important if I am to master this, and it requires I take a deep look into my trading, scrutinizing every mistake, what triggers a string of losing trades, what causes me to leave money on the table, etc… Anyway, it is all personal stuff but maybe others can relate with it or even learn something about their own trading, I certainly find it is the only way to improve. Weekly performance review: Monday: My plan was to short a rejection of D, price made a triple top here but I didn’t take it, because it was 4 ticks above my level. The market doesn’t care whether I have line at 143.00 or 143.4, it is an area, and a triple top is enough of a sign to enter a short. Tuesday- I didn’t short 72 because the rejection was quick on a ick chart, instead I gave to much importance to the fact that price was holding above A, which according to my plan called for a long. When I lost this trade, I started trading against the trend, which is one of my behavioural patterns, wanting revenge. Then I watched the reversal pattern at 38, but at this point I was angry and simply wasn’t aggressive enough getting in, missing the whole move, another behavioural pattern. After this, I was pissed off again because I missed the move, and started shorting, once more, against the trend, which resulted in a losing day. Wednesday- I moved to the March contract, hence the change in levels, but price structure and S/R obviously, still apply. I traded well Wednesday, started by shorting according to plan, and then I bought, when price was holding above my level. I could’ve held to my position for much longer, had I respected Dbs TLine scale out strategy. This day was a lovely trend day, with one consolidation after another, I didn’t trade much because I reached my daily target pretty fast, in the future I should keep trading regardless of my P&L, this is the goal. I spotted a new reversal pattern, which forms when the upwaves have no material progress, buyers are exhausted and a short should be initiated, anticipating a wave in the opposite direction. This same pattern took place on Thursday. Thursday- Traded well at the beginning, with a nice short triggered by yesterday’s pattern. I spotted the reversal around 10:am an it was according to plan, but I didn’t get into the trade because of excuses not to take the risk, such as news coming out. I spotted some incredible entry opportunities that followed the plan, but I didn’t take them due to the excuse of the news or time of the day. When I finally got in on a retracement, above the high of the range, I simply took profits to soon, way to soon… Friday- I missed the best reversals of my levels because I wasn’t at my desk in the morning. I had a good entry but didn’t hold for long enough. When NFP was released, it all fucked up ad I focused way to much on the tick chart, I need to use the 1m chart on news releases, the tick chart I find overwhelming and it is much easier to spot the climax and re-test, and figure out the line of least resistance. The biggest issue here, was holding to my trades once the line of least resistance had been established, the target for trades 9 and 10 was always the top of the range but I just didn’t hold to them. This could’ve been because I’d taken such a beaten on NFP and lost all my profits, either way, I need to change this and hold on to good entries until my stop or target is hit. Once I’d left so much money on the table, I tried shorting with no success, it felt bad being so controlled in the morning and then losing it on 1 bloody news release. Technical Errors 1- Not taking a reversal that was part of the plan, because it took place above my level, even though it was a blatant triple top (Monday) 2- Focusing too much on a level, ignoring the rest. On Tuesday I didn’t short 72 but went long 63 because I was convinced it was a more important level. This may’ve been the case, but the price action wasn’t telling me buyers were in control, and there was no compelling reason to go long here. Emotional Errors 1- Not holding to trades for long enough, not using the management strategy to scale out and taking profits due to fear of losing some of the gains. 2- Taking 1 lot out to make the trade risk free, because of fear of taking a loser. 3- Looking for an excuse not to take a trade and assume the risk, such as “There is a news release soon”, “Its lunch time, the algos are going to fuck everyone over”, “there will be a shakeout before this thing moves”. 4- Perceiving a reversal very clearly, but not being aggressive enough getting it, because I have taking a few losers trying to pick a bottom, and miss the entire move. 5- Missing a reversal that I spot in real time, and then revenge trading against it, irrationally. 6- Taking an excellent setup, but getting out when price moves 1 or 2 ticks against me, due to fear of taking a loser. 7- Using a tight stop and getting shaken out unnecessarily. 8- Reaching my daily profit target and becoming complacent, procrastinating instead of looking for more good trades. I am a seriously fucked up individual ! Lets hope I can work through most of these without having to visit a shrink.. It is not at all bad by the way, and I feel like I am much more aware of my self and much more controlled when I trade now, I make fewer mistakes and fewer revenge trades and I hardly ever over-trade, my long term goal, is to have complete confidence in my ability to put on a trade and manage it in the most effective way, with no emotional input. This is how I intend to improve next week and over the next few weeks: 1- On closing a trade before my stop gets hit and not managing it adequately, I will use my positive self-talk, that says something like, “Don’t worry mate, this is a perfectly legit trade, it is part of the plan so there is nothing that can possibly go wrong with it, if price hits my stop, I will still be proud and happy that I took it when the day is over”. 2- More on the stop placement, I have a new column in my spread sheet, that says, is this a trade2 hold, if I tick yes, I must place the stop and let the trade develop. 3- On having a tight stop, I am also including a column that I must tick, saying if it is a wide or a tight stop trade. 4- On looking for excuses not to take a trade or perceiving a reversal and not getting in because I’ve taken a few losers, I will also use the self-talk described above. 5- Finally, on reaching my daily target and becoming complacent, maybe I need a larger target, such as 50 instead of 40 ticks. Also, I might include a limit on the amount of profits I am willing to give away before I stop for the day. This is all work in progress, so I will try to apply these techniques next week, let’s see how it goes and hopefully I will slowly improve my trading process, until I reach my goal.

Today I missed some good reversals of S/R because I wasn't at my desk in the morning, I also bailed out of positions that were part of the plan, which was a terrible idea. I believe my problem is that I need to distinguish between scalps, where I find my way into the trade using the price action, and S/R trades, which I just have to hold whatever happens, I need to overcome my fear of losing. Next week I am adding a new column to my spreadsheet which I must tick if it is a trade2hold. If this is the case, I am not allowed to exit unless my stop gets hit. I will also use my positive self-talk to keep me in the trade. Another problem was using tight stops, this I am also considering including a column I must tick, because S/R trades require wider stops than price action scalps, based on tape reading. I lost a lot of money on NFP, becasue I followed on the tick chart, this has happened before and in the future, I must always rely on the 1m chart, the tick chart is suicidal on a figure like the NFP, after it was released, I got in at the climax, but didn;t hold it for long enough, so all in all a very bad day, and poor performance from my part. Mondays plan should be pretty obvious: At A look for a short or long if we Bout. At B look for a short At C look for a long or short if we Break and can't get above At D look for a long and short if we don't hold.

Today I traded well again, but like yesterday, I reached my goal and wasn't as aggressive. My room for improvement of today's trading is: 1- Didn't trade because minor figures were coming out, this is not an excuse, as figures tend to push price towards the line of least resistance. 2- Took profits to soon in some trades, taking 1 lot out to make the trade "risk free". This could be a dangerous habit as I need to squeeze my winners, in order to make good money. 3- Hesitated geting into retracements that are part of my plan. More stuff to work on and improve.. Tomorrows plan: B and C are minor levels but they could provide some S/R A is the main level to look for a short or longs if we stay above. D is a long on a bounce or short if we break below E and F could be good levels for a long. The Bund was extremely strong yesterday and today and there aren't any significant levels above this. 146.19 is something I found on forexpros but don't know how reliable it might be.. it will probably be one of those days where S/R is improvised.

Today I traded well but could've made much more If I hadn't become complacent once I reached my daily goal. I was aware of the consolidations but didn't trade them as I was happy with my profit, there were several retracements where I could've got long but chose not to, I still can't focus on the plan and forget about the P&L this is the mindset that I need to develop to become a professional trader. Tomorrows Plan: At A look for a short or longs if we BReak At B look for a long At C look for a long or short if we break below. At D and E look for longs. Above A 145.23 is the bid level to look for a short or a long if we break above.

Today was bad trading, I didn;t short 70 because the rejection as only visible on the tick chart and I prefer to wait for a LH on the 1m chart, it all went downhill from then, as I tried to buy it repeatedly, except for, of course, at the low. At 36 at had my VPOC and perceived the reversal but wasn't agressive enough to get in. Tomorrows Plan At A look for a short At B look for a short or long if we break above At C look for a long or short if break below At D look for a long

Todays morning I didn't take that triple top because it didn't happen at a level. I took a long after a LH at 92 which didnt have enough confirmation. In the afternoon I took some good trades after the climax, but over-traded towards the end becasue I was nackered and lost most of my profits. Tomorrows plan: at A look for a short or longs if we break above. at B look for a short At C look for a long if we reject or a short if we break below. At D look for a long at E and F look for longs.

So far, price is finding support at G, which is the lower limit of that first 64-89 distribution, and resistance at C, which is the midpoint of the larger 89-45 distribution. so these are my main levels for today. At A I will look for shorts on a rejection. At B I will watch out for a rejection, but I consider this a minor level and will see how traders react to this swing high. At C I will look for a short on a rejection, or longs if we move above this, the target becomes A D is also a minor level but could give place to a nice long, it is also the VPoc of the current range. At F I will look to go long on a bounce. At G I will look for longs on a rejection and shorts if we break below, the target is H.

As I said this morning, today was extremely simple: 1- Price couldnt get above D short, after this buyers support price at F, so a long was legit. My issues today were the result of fears, and looking for excuses to take the risk, such as: 1- Didnt let price hit my target or my stop 2- Didnt get in because of the time of the day or because I thought equities would fall, or other excuses, all excuses not to assume the risk. Tomorrows goal is to take the risk, place the stop and let the trade develop, regardless of any excuse. Like today, make sure I enter on the ret, dont wait for the illusive entry. Tomorrows plan: At F look for a long or a short if we break below. At E look for a long. At D look for a short or a long if we stay above. At B look for a short or longs if we break above. C and A are marginal levels showing the higher value area inside the macro distribution, they could come in handy but I won't rely on them

This morning shows how simple trading can be, when you have a solid plan. Price has bounced between D and F all morning, levels that I identified yesterday and planed for. Unfortunately, simplicity doesn't equate to easiness, and it is my emotions and fears that have led, once again, to a mediocre performance. So far, I have followed my goal of not waiting for the perfect entry, and being more aggressive, getting in on retracements, such as the ones Gringo pointed out yesterday. My problem today, has been not having the balls to hold to my trades, getting out when the market moves against me, and in 1 trade not waiting for a rejection and ret. So this afternoon and from now on I shall: 1- Wait for a rejection and at least 1 retracement, which I define as at least 1 minute bar that compresses after the rejection. 2- Place my entry and stop, minimize the ladder and let the trade develop, do not get out unless my stop gets hit. 3- Never avoid a trade because I think I know what the market will do next, always listen to the Highs and Lows that show market direction. Is is not all bad however, there are some improvements in my performance: 1- I don't revenge trade anymore, taking the opposite side of a trade if I don't get filled like I used to do. 2- I have the discipline to wait for the high probability trades of S/R 3- Today I have been more aggressive with my entries, which is important.

In the afternoon I made some revenge trades and 1 good trade that is part of the system.. Tomorrow I will make sure I hit market if I don't get filled, this is the plan: At D look for longs on a bounce. At B look for shorts on a rejection. At A look for shorts on a rejection. Short 143.45 if it gets up there.

Unfortunately Tl won't allow me to update my first post, so I can't share my new updated plan, but one of the new setups that I have tested, and that has a high probability in the Bund is the test of the Initial Balance High/Low It isn't Wyckoff, but works just as well

Ah I know G, I didn't take the first ret at 142.37 because I was waiting for break of Sl and 2 1m bars that ftb closer to 35. The second RET 142.52 I avoided because I Prefer to wait for a test of the initial balance high. THe second entry that was part of my plan, I passed again because after the break of the Sl, I didn't get a retest of the 48 area. I think I am being to hesitant jumping in and I am always waiting for an illusive perfect entry... Thanks for your comments mate, I think I am getting much better at reading what the market is trying to do, but I am struggling to execute the plan flawlessly. Over the past few days, my drama seems to be focused on missing good trades that are part of the plan because I am waiting for that "perfect entry". This is clearly something that I will have to work on, amongst other personal weaknesses. Thanks for your thoughts, look forward to reading more of your views and advise.

It feels bad seeing a trend day develop in front of me, and not taking part in it, specially since I anticipated this exact scenario before the open. Why didn't I get long? BEcause I was waiting for the perfect entry, a break of Sl and r-test formed by 2bars that ftb. My goal for today was being more aggressive with my entries and I haven't accomplished this so far. There where several reasons to have entered in each case. THe 08:00 entry: the low is higher than the previous, and price is above the VPoc, also there was big volume and no result, the bar was very narrow which shows absorption. This is something to integrate in my entry criteria. The 08:30 entry, there was no re test of Sl but it was only a marginally lower low, which should also validate an entry. The positive is that I didn't get angry and start shorting the uptrend like I would've done recently, but this is no consolation for the fact that I have some serious work ahead, in order to improve my entry execution. In the 3d trade, I wasn't fast enough doing a SAR.

I found it hard to accept that there will only be a few opportunities in the day, and most of the time I need to be watching, if I miss a trade, it doesn't mean I should find a new one straight away, the chances are that I will have to wait for some time until I find a new opportunity. 1- Missed the best entry of the day according to my plan because I wasn't fast enough hitting market, if the pattern is clear and its part of the plan I should take it and assume the risk. 2- Once I missed the good entry, I tried shorting against the trend when there where no opportunities, I need to accept that I missed a good entry, and move on to the next opportunity, which could take several hours to appear. 3- I got angry because I missed the initial move and this prevented me from thinking clearly during the rest of the day. Positives 1- Was in tune with the trend and spoted some good opportunities, failed to execute them properly. 2- Stayed focus and spoted some good opportunities in the afternoon, didn't become completely reckless. Tomorrows Goals 1- Work on the execution of my setups, initially use limit orders but if I don't get a fill, make sure I hit market, this is my goal for the day. Tomorrows plan: Price is in a macro range between A and D, so tomorrows plan is: At A sell a rejection, above this look to buy. at B sell a rejection, above this look to buy. at D buy a rejection, below this look to sell

Today I felt confortable with my plan, and it was a great way to contextualize what the market was doing, I need to keep working on my plan and improve my execution. Tomorrows plan is: At B look for shorts on a rejection, then target would become the low of the range at D, but watch how price reacts at the MP C and judge, if it rejects SAR. Look for longs above B on a ret. target is 71 and 83 At D look for longs on a rejection, and use C and B as targets Below B, short a ret, the target becomes F and G

Good to read both your analysis, I have a slightly different view on how to play this. Starting with the macro: There was a strong down-wave from 2007 to 2009, which accounted for a 32 point drop, this was considerable. Price then climaxed around 6 and spent 3 years trying to rally. A normal correction would've taken us to 22, however, sellers are coming in repetitively at 16. This to me shows strong weakness and is a reason to look for shorts and a test of the 2009 lows. On the 2 year chart, the Tl is intact but price is clearly struggling, as the Oct high was only marginally higher than the April high, and lower than the Feb 2011 High. Finally, on the daily price made a triple top around 16.25, broke the Dl and made a LH and a LL. My preferred entry (for a short) would've been the double top in early November, after the break of the Sl (shown by the grey dot on the chart). As things stand I see no reason to consider longs, I would now wait to see how the current rally develops, anticipating a LH, which could be a great place to add or initiate a short position.

Tomorrows plan at my Pre-defined levels: -E: Look to buy a bounce, if we break below, sell a retracement and there really isn't much to stop price from falling to 141.67, so this could be a potential target. At D: look for a rejection or a bounce, hold on and wait for price to test C, or E, if we reject, get out, if we slide through hold. At C look for a short, the target becomes D and E. FI we move above C, look to buy and hold until B Look for shorts on a rejection of B, target becomes C Look to buy a retracement above B, the target then becomes A

Fridays trading, my executiong wasnt great but I felt good rading, generaly chilled out, not giving much importance to winning or losing.

I know most of you guys are still in the "Observing Price Movement" but have any of you moved to backtesting or forward testing? I am interested not in what you are testing, but more in the process. It seems like most of us are learning the same thing, which is trading of support and resistance. Have you guys tried testing what db outlines here? I think more than testing a particular pattern, we should be testing how the market responds to S/R and our management strategy don't you agree? I don't see much point on testing a pattern in isolation. For instance, I trade the bund, so if I want to trade "in Foresight" of Support and resistance, I would go back to the 22-11-2011, and start testing my plan. I draw my levels on the 30m chart, and use replay to find my reversal pattern, but only at the pre-defined levels right? Lets assume I am only trading doble tops on the 1m chart, of S/R from the 30m chart, in this case, I move my charts back to the 21st of November, plot my levels on the 30m and I would enter at the rejection of D, that would be it for the morning. Then I would move on to the 23d, and do this for the remaining 11 months of the year. What do you guys think? Are you doing your forward testing in this way? I know it will take days to go through a year but it seems the only way to test this sort of thing! Did you go through the same process before trading in foresight with real money Db? All the best and Happy thanksgiving!

Today I bought 05s, which was the IB low and also took a loser selling the VPoc at 14. The market es extremely, ranging between 24 and 04, so tomorrows levels prevail. The plan is to Buy reversals at 23 and 04, buy above 23 a re-test, and sell below 04s a retest.