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Nikko
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Everything posted by Nikko
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I would even feel comfortable buying this dip to the EOD as I have had a good day today and feel we will once again climb. Nikko
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To add to what I have said it is as simple as backtracking and seeing in which direction MORE OFTEN THEN NOT big swings in the market happen and you will see that having a bullish view in today's current market would be a better position for the majority of momentum type trading. Once again it is as simple as more often then not as that has a lot to do with structuring a profitable trading program for yourself. Mine won't work with your emotions, vise versa. Here soon I will post my strategy the best way I can explain it. Nikko
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Matter fact if you all look back near the end of 2007 through beginning of 2008 charts I have a good feeling that here in the near future we will see some correlating activity. That being said I don't feel that now is the time to bank on big drops in the market as opposed to the rises. Being a bear is risky at this moment, the time will come soon but I think an overall bullish view is the way to go until further notice. Good luck, Nikko
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Not to mention we broke the support level through the trend. Nikko
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Speaking in terms of current market status, we have already broke the uptrend at roughly 10am central time, so at about 10am all of you should have gotten a signal to sell I'm sure. That being said if you look closely we just broke the downtrend so anytime know we should be climbing back up. I'm long here Nikko
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You know, I'm sorry for degrading you like that. I don't even know you. To be real I just got mad that you thought I would be bullish after the reports. Good luck, Nikko
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I believe you as it has happened to me as well, I too have made a lot of money guessing as well as had my fair share of flukes, but at the end of the day you can not beat the market so those flukes and guesses are irrelevant. From my experience it is best to build a strong trading program and not worry about the inevitable flukes which to be honest should not be a problem assuming you have mastered " money management " which is a must in any profitable trading, period. The first step for new traders ( assuming you know terminology / TA / etc and are in the process of structuring your very own trading program ) is to just start off with the guidelines of more often then not. You will be surprised to what you will see as opposed to finding the " Holy Grail " Good luck, Nikko
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You could not be any more wrong and if you keep thinking to go against the obvious you are not going to make it far and yes it is in fact extremely ignorant for a veteran trader to go against the overall motion regarding the ES on 4/19/2012 and not believe the 50's could have easily been obtainable. The climb up was a market player, if you did not know I would like to educate you that there are teams of people much smarter then all of us looking to take all of our money and their competitions too. In which are as equally better then us, so if you have an overall outlook for the day and your usually right don't let a spike in the market deteriorate your plan, now if mid day they said " hey reports were wrong everyone is employed! " ok I agree, but not just from a simple spike in the market after the release of core evidence that only comes around once in awhile. So yes if your overall goal is to have a long-term profitably structured trading program and not some sissy system where you get scared of brief non corresponding spikes on the few days where the information we receive have so much meaning then yes, I would say if you keep that up you are going to be on the losing side much more often then not. Good luck, Nikko
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I was talking about 1400 yesterday anyway, not today. I read a couple of your posts and feel you have a lot to work on before you can understand what I say or mean. Nikko
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Sorry to confuse you, I will post a trading journal soon and be up to date with execution etc. I was unaware that my posts were no longer moderated so they could show up in real-time. I just did not post during the day as it took a little while for my posts to be approved. Yesterday I posted a theory but as far as today all I said was this I was not talking about today's trading as at this time I was unaware that my posts did not need to be approved so I was speaking in general not my executions. You would have to be pretty ignorant to feel bullish today specifically especially after the news and bad reports. Anyway I did not really feel a part of real-time conversation as I did not know when my posts would show up. Good luck, Nikko
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Then you are missing out because it is 4-20 tomorrow :haha:
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I mean my executions where on point but I thought today could have easily traded down to the 50's... Nikko
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A lot of the reports did not come as expected and we broke the trend early, but was still confident if the reports were as expected we should have broke 1400's. Ok but taking into consideration we did not drop too much especially since there was talk about beating the consensus I believe the numbers should have caused a bigger fall in the market so it was clear buyers did not have much to work with and I personally believe we just broke the " day trend " for the past 2 days as the 70's area held decently and tomorrow we should continue to climb and re-test the 1400's she is not done yet. Regardless you never know until morning but there is not much speculated news coming out tonight and in the morning so we should have a good chance of continuing the overall uptrend especially when we held the 70's after such bad news and reports this morning. Good luck, Nikko
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Well said but I believe instead of worrying very little about the overall economy you should most definitely take it into high consideration as if you had an idea of a week ahead, a month ahead, etc I believe you will be able to make a much more educated and probable decision on daily executions. I despise long-term investments in this particular economy as there is extreme liability. Too much for the profit potential. Until we really see some kind of economic restructure there is no way any of us should feel safe to hold our investments in hopes of new highs or " it finally being over " but there is also no way you can overlook the aid we are receiving either... Nikko
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* BIG EDIT * lol Josh I'm sorry I reread my comment and I would like to note that only half of it was meant for you ( the portion regarding the market ) the other half is on how I feel about trading and what new traders should do etc does not involve you Josh. I say this because I seen that you posted you were worried etc I don't want you to think I just told you to relax and takes notes lol... I should have split my comment in two not as one, but I just get excited when I type, but no I was not directing the other half of the comment because YOU said you were worried, I was just speaking in general for newer traders that are lurking the thread but hesitant to comment. Nikko
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Very few things will bring this market down and when they show believe me I'll be the first one to say SHORT this fukn index until she bottoms!!!! As of right now and for most likely the remainder of the summer, unless we see some of those trust fund babies in congress grow some balls and stop pretending that they can fix things when in all reality they can not and we need REFORM we should definitely continue the uptrend or stay in / near 1400's. I'm not a stupid politician though so I'll just sit back and play it by the day. This is more then trading for me, in essence the markets are an awesome never ending book that tell more then just a story, it is legit history in the making! So I don't care about a legacy I just want to be a part of the markets as it is so much more then TA, fundamentals and politics, I love this business! Don't go for the stereotypical thesis regarding traders guys, you should not be stressed or worried when making executions, you should be like a robotic fukn jet-i who will never break and has no emotion, NONE. Then you will win, forever! Stress will overcome your confidence and lead you to question yourself which will only ruin your trading plan which will make you unstable and you will lose as your plan clearly will then not be a plan but just more of a guesstimated formula of you don't even know. So yes don't stress because if you do stress you have no idea of what's going on so just relax and take notes. Nikko
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I don't see why you guys are so bearish. Standard TA shows a strong uptrend with nothing especially not overseas news bringing it down. In my opinion once again same as Tuesday, if tomorrow we don't see any surprising numbers regarding the reports we should continue the uptrend. There may be the usual morning sell off or gap fill but overall tomorrow should be a great day to long the supports! Nikko
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The volume was there yesterday, I do agree with your thoughts of presumed consolidation for today. I believe that it is because of all the reports tomorrow. Today we should see a lot of short support / resistance trading, I don't believe and big moves will happen unless we get a hint of some premature news. Nikko
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Here are my thoughts on the longer term positions in this market. You should be looking more at the fundamental aspect as technical analysis wont do all that great in this economy when looking for the " bigger picture " because we have an unstable economy right now. It would also help if you specify a specific timeline you are looking at as your " bigger picture " is most likely different then my " bigger picture ". Now for my " bigger picture " I would have to say eventually we should tank as we are so ( excuse my french ) fukn inflated it is ridiculous among many many many many other unresolved financial economic issues but being a day trader I have to follow my guidelines as we obviously can not tank before some serious news / indicators etc. That being said I feel overall this is a very risky time to be in the market for long term traders but with every risk there is reward, so... Over time ( short or long depending on news / indicators ) I believe we should fall greatly and re-test a few vital lows in the ES, now with all of this printing of money and " governmental assistance " for treasuries etc at this particular time I do not feel that we should see drastic lows as of yet. I believe maybe without drastic change we could even get to mid-high 1400's before the truth comes out. Who knows maybe one morning soon things might change for the worse or we might get lucky! Stay updated and on top of things I'm sure we will be able to catch something suspicious. In all honesty I personally could not confidentially give you a good idea of what might happen in a timeline as short as 3 months, now if you ask me what I think might happen in the next 1 month I would say if all is well mid / high 1400's should be expected and or with some fatal news, we could break this beautiful uptrend, but after / if all is well and we near mid / high 1400's I would relax for a bit and see where the market / news / etc wants to go before I feel bearish or bullish. Nice thread though! I personally would be interested in what you guys think might happen within the next 30 days. Nikko
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At the end of the day guys we all trade so different it would be hard for everything to be understood all the time but I too did not understand what was meant by " reaction " except for the fact of the volume increase in those areas. Anyway we just need to stay positive and help each other as I'm sure he knew what he meant by " reaction " but I'm not saying it is any of you or anything but in all honesty I see a lot of role playing on these forums. The best we can do is filter out the trolls and for those trading as a business or primary income to come together and add to the already growing community as for every troll, I do see good knowledge that has already helped me greatly. Feel free to add me as a friend if you plan on sticking around for awhile and I will try to do the same. I am new but if your in it for expanding your arsenal while contributing positive / helpful comments we will get along great. I'm not going to be able to mark my every execution but feel it could be nothing but beneficial to share my knowledge while hearing what others have to say besides my usual trader friends. Nice to meet you all, Nikko
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I can not read my posts as they have to be moderated so I do not know exactly what I said but I don't want to come off as telling seasoned traders not to trade I was just generalizing my comment toward the newer traders... Instead of worrying about riskier executions maybe you should relax and take notes so the next time a situation like today ( news, speculation, etc ) comes about you can do the same thing and compare, and in no time ( a year or two ) you will come up with your own good idea of what might happen and when adding what you've discovered with your daily routine you can now have a much higher advantage on similar situations! It's all about building a proper arsenal from the beginning. Confidence is a great tool to success. I can't give you my formula unless you look at 1-3-5-10-30-60-120 charts etc and even then you don't momentum trade the way I do, matter fact no one can trade the same really unless your a robot so that is why it is important to take good ideas and implement them into your particular strategy and come up with something that works for you and your emotions etc. Good luck, Nikko
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Well there should obviously be a big momentum pull either when when reaching near 1400, for someone not familiar with what is going on in the market I would recommend to call it a day as there will be some split second decisions coming up here shortly. On a side note I personally am not looking to make big moves here as to me it feels as though we already should have made a decent profit for today as the set-up was clear and anything beyond this point will be a bit too emotional for me considering there is no reason for me to degrade the beautiful set-up for today with uncertainty as I do not feel as strongly as I did this morning. I still feel somewhat bullish but I think we need to relax unless your almost really know what is going to happen here shortly. A lot of volume with more then we can see! Nikko
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* Thanks Karoshiman, good luck man! * The Negotiator - That was a great write up! I think the volume indicator for the ask/bid is a great tool but for a day like today I tend to not concentrate so much on volume in general as we are going to have plenty of it. That being said I kept it simple with some support, resistance, trend lines and the speculation of reports. Sometimes it is just that simple. Volume was not that much of a concern for today. I had some great executions this morning. I am still feeling bullish so let's see us test the 1400's and once we get there be careful! Nikko
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Basically what I am saying is I feel bullish for tomorrow unless we see bad reports and was wondering how you guys felt. Nikko
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I've been looking at my charts and thinking about the upcoming reports and believe tomorrow won't be so consolidating. Depending on the reports obviously we should see some big moves but I'm going to wait until we have some more information but I would feel comfortable going long for the most part so long as the reports are as expected and if exceeding I plan on being aggressive in the long positions after the initial dump or two. I would be cautious as always but see no reason why would could not test the 1400's with some decent news. Good trend, volume will be there, indicators are looking good, overall unless we receive garbage data we should definitely see up movement in the market. What do you guys think? Nikko