mister ed

Reminder that clocks go forward one hour in the USA on Sunday morning 09 MAR 2008. Traders of US markets resident outside the US may need to adjust to a new local start time, adjust software data collection times, etc.

Ouch ....... His helmet fell off ... shouldn't it stay on? Hockey ignoramus here....

Nvesta - your question is probably a little general for me to give a definitive answer to. I think in general, in the sort of situation you describe, a move lower on lowish volumes into previous support would be indicative of sellers not being willing to sell heavily, but I would have to look at the reaction to the price dip - does the price move up reasonably quickly, if so then the buying that is being done is into a lack of immediate supply... if you have an example chart you can post there might be a better chance to think it through? Eiger - nearly lunchtime here ... late for some....early for others (oh to be young again LOL).

Thanks Db - this thread is moving quick again and hard to keep up with the analysis. I really like your discussion of buying and selling within the same bar, obvious and overlooked at the same time... But I particularly like non-barking dogs, both the metaphor and in real-life (won't get into that). What 'ought-to' happen but doesn't, for me, is a most reliable entry trigger for a low-risk trade. Sometimes it is a challenge to get my head around it in real-time though.

Eiger, not quite sure what you mean by 2-3 min timeframe, the chart is drawn from tick data. I have attached a P&F with a 1/2 point box and a 1 box reversal, hope that's what you are after. Such a small scale gives a big chart, I have split it into 2, the first covers the first 2 hours of trading, the second covers up to just prior to 3 pm EST. The times along the horizontal axis are local time here, add 8 to get EST. I have also attached a 1 point by 1 box reversal, which shows the whole session.

Couldn't agree more, let us know if you put it to him. Eiger - I think there is huge value in hand-drawing point and figure charts, but like you say, doing so intra-day is too difficult (was for me anyway). There is software that will draw them intraday though (tick data so the PF is accurate). If you let me know what box size and reversal you want I could post one from today's ES. I look at the rest of your post Eiger, and like Bearbull says in his response, you did great. Zeon - the 1-minute chart you posted, is that just your timing chart or also your analysis chart? You had some great entries there and I have to ask how much more were you looking for in those trades? Thanks for posting.

The question may well be better put direct to TG rather than on here? I can understand why the question would be put on a public forum but there may be a better chance of a response if a customer of TG puts such a question directly to the reps of the firm rather than on a forum where it may or may not be seen and may or may not be responded to?

Thanks Eiger - nice info. The boy scout and the ice I am familiar with but haven't heard of the shell diver! Evans' metaphors can help bring the concepts to life for some people. I always find the 'ice' a bit of a tricky one though, I picture this level plane, which I suppose translates onto a chart as a straight line in my mind's eye, but just as the creek is not a straight line the ice is not either - there is more to the creek than just a straight line drawn on a chart and there is more to the ice than a straight line drawn on the chart. May be seeing bit of 'ice' potentially forming on the pre-market ES here now. Here is a 2-minute chart, for discussion later maybe as open is approaching!

Some people have the program, some don't. Some people use it to learn VSA and to trade with. There are bouts of TG bashing on the thread from time-to-time. The thread has always taken a wide view of VSA, and given TG's role in marketing the concept and the software and Williams' role in popularising the approach and his relationship with TG, VSA and TG are somewhat intertwined.

To those users of OEC - there is an upgrade available now, takes all of about a minute to download and install (depending on connection and computer speed of course) ... don't leave it to 9.29 EST!

Thanks th - good info. Rollover date remains Thur. 13 MAR 2008.

Note to self: Never look at this thread before bedtime ... too much nightmare material...

James beat me to it...but I can add some info... Programs to create videos (capturing video from the screen): Snagit has a video screen capture function, its a basic version of Camtasia, but it works. The latest version of Snagit is a paid product but a prior version is available as a free download from here. The registration key code is: YW6RC-4YMK6-SZBBD-C2MCW-Q9D96 The business model seems to be, try the old version and if you like it there is a better one you can pay for, hence the free Rego key. Also there is a free, open-source, product called Camstudio. I have tried this and it is very good. Available from here. with more info here.

One of my all-time favourites... A horse walks into a bar and orders a beer. Barman says "Sure, no problems, but...why the long face?"

OK, so we seem to have reached a stage on this thread where we want to see buying and selling pressure impacting on the price, where we want to see buying and selling pressure 'drying up', where we would like to see these things happening at 'support' and 'resistance'. We aint gonna use chart patterns, VSA, Wyckoff, MP ... we are just looking at a candle chart (1 minute right?). Now, for those who have been trading long enough and are now punching the air and saying "Right On!" (or whatever it is the kids say now to show approval) this is all well and good. But for those still coming to grips with analysis of price and volume this might not work out. Speaking only for myself, when I 'discovered' VSA it was like a lightbulb coming on in a darkened aircraft hangar. It didn't illuminate the whole place, but it was much better than stumbling around in the dark like I had been. As I learn't about VSA, and started to get an understanding of the labels and jargon, such as 'No Demand', a funny thing happened to me ... I started to question the concepts, to critically examine them, to question why they worked as well as how, as well as when ... and in that way I developed an even deeper understanding. I then discovered Wyckoff analysis, and the hangar is much, much brighter. I am working on some MP learning now to help with my analysis and already some more lights have come on. I would be nowhere near the stage I am at if it wasn't for this thread and the people who are active on it and who have been acitve on it in the past. Along the way I have spoken with various people on a similar journey, and read the words of many others. Some have combined VSA with Elliot Wave, to great success. Not my cup of tea at all, but their success speaks very loudly. Some have come to VSA from other backgrounds, like MP, and found value. Some have stuck pretty much with just VSA and achieved great success. Some have furthered their knowledge of Wyckoff to a very deep level indeed. One of these people has been instrumental in my learning and for that I am incredibly grateful, he has helped me get off the back roads and onto the freeway. A lot of these people have been at this thread at some stage, have asked questions, have contributed answers. The answers on this thread are not always 'right', but the philosophy of this forum takes care of that. TL is an environment of quality trading education, a place of learning; where we experiment, make mistakes, hopefully correct them, and move ever on. So to those who have a very developed knowledge of price and volume analysis and are able to 'see' what is important on a simple chart, I say well done. But lets not forget that there are those who are maybe just starting out, or continuing in their development, who maybe want more overt structure to their analysis, who maybe want to take some of the really important insights that VSA/Wyckoff can offer and add it to their current techniques, who just don't 'see it' (yet, or at all), who maybe will want to learn things for themselves, to prove things for themselves ... there may even be those who disagree with what we tend to all agree on here... If the descriptions in this paragraph fit YOU I would encourage you to ask questions, to contribute, to join in. If you want to ask what is 'No Demand", go right ahead, if you want to ask about 'the background', go right ahead, if you don't know what a 'sign of strength' is, ask away, if you want to post a chart and ask a question, or respond to someone else's question, go right ahead.

Thanks very much BF. Have not heard of him before but will check these out. There is a small index of webcasts on the CBOT site here if anyone else wants a look.

Taz, one thing that occurs to me that I don't think anyone has mentioned yet is that the people proposing that every move in the market can be attributed to the activities of the smart money are the same people selling stuff that purports to spot that smart money activity? Maybe thats just a coincidence or maybe I am a cynical old bastard.

Nicely put. A common misconception seems to be that big money is smart money. I would argue that smart money is big money, but big money is not necessarily smart money.

Hi Taz, nice hand grenade, thanks for chucking it in. I saw your post a few hours ago, and have been thinking about it since. Sad, I know, but true. I am going to go with the 'muddle through' option. Price movement is a result of manipulation, sometimes, AND price movement is a result of an auction process, sometimes. The two co-exist, sometimes one is dominant, sometimes another. I will let the fundamentalists (no, not balance sheet/NFP/interest rate type fundamentalists, I mean those who set themselves up in either the MP or the VSA camp) slug it out, I will muddle through. What does muddle through mean? Hmmm, this bit of MP seems to work quite well, I will use it. Hmmm, this bit of VSA seems to work quite well, I will use it. Is this price move, here, now, a result of manipulation? Or is this price move, here, now, a result of the auction process? Ask me later, after I have closed the trade. Right NOW I am occupied with looking at the test and the response. Let me elaborate ... Price moves up, breaks through resistance (maybe a double top). This is the test. Then the price stalls, stops going up, and the volume has dropped. This is the response. OK, so here we are. Why are we here, manipulation or auction? I don't care. What's more important to me is how we got here and then making a judgment on where we are going from here. Up or down? Do the assessment, make the judgment, buy or sell. Now manage the trade until it is closed. I use Wyckoff analysis. The way I use it is to use whatever tool or technique that can tell me about supply & demand, cause & effect, effort & result, and position. I use VSA techniques a lot. I am trying to use MP techniques more as well. Are the philosophies behind each contradictory? Maybe to the fundamentalists (picture white-bearded VSA adherents at the entrance to one cave and white-bearded MP adherents at the entrance to another, hurling invective at each other) they are, to me they can peacefully and profitably co-exist So, is the market manipulated or is it an auction? Yes.

dandxg - instead of Paint (which comes with Windows, you sure you don't have it?) you can try Snagit ... I will hunt down a free download link and post it ... it is like Paint but has more funtionality, still very easy to use though. OK, Snagit is available from here It is version 7, which is not the up-to-date version but is still outstandingly good. The registration key code is: YW6RC-4YMK6-SZBBD-C2MCW-Q9D96

I have attached a chart with some of my comments on it (includes bonus typos). The volume variations in FX charts are made more complex by the time zone changes ... the low volume bars I marked are of course the Asian timezone so I wonder how much weight they carry in the analysis. Agree with you on dandxg comments, really valuable.

Sledge - this question from Db, as I understand it, is a mighty good one. I wont try to read Db's mind in what he meant by this question (although that is just what I am about to attempt...LOL). A trade taken off an analysis of a daily chart, I would say, is looking for a move on the daily chart. On the chart you have of GBP/USD here, if going to get short on the basis of that last red bar in the context of recent resistance, then the initial stop has got to be above the high of that red bar. Of course you may or may not move the stop on the basis of subsequent developments, or you may exit the trade early if its not working out like you wanted, but have you allowed the daily chart to play out the move yet?

Hi Sledge, Well I look at your chart and I can't see anything I disagree with in your analysis up to that bar you have marked with an arrow (the next bar hadn't formed yet as you say). That red bar is, to me, a pretty clear reversal, at previous resistance levels. The volume is not huge but its not bad. My only suggestion is to ask what does it look like if you drop down a time-frame, say to hourly? (I could get the price chart from the net but don't have the volumes on it). I know this analysis works on all timeframes etc. and maybe its just me but I always like to see intra-day bars if available. The dynamics of supply and demand do change and of course will show up more quickly on an intra-day. Having said that, its tough when ya gotta sleep... Just on the basis on the daily chart you have posted here I wouldn't fault your analysis ... maybe someone can see something I don't though (wouldn't be the first time!). So why didn't it fall as expected? From a Wyckoff perspective I would say the position of the market was not right to drive it lower (I might see this better on an intra-day as I say). Hope this helps ... or at least doesn't hinder. Looking forward to any other analysis.

BrownsFan - thanks for asking for feedback from us and then compiling the suggestions into your submission, I appreciate all the work you put in to doing this, and I am sure other OEC users do too.

Thanks subq - So are you using the POC as an area that you expect to revisit on following days and assessing the implications of a revisit or a failure to revisit? Sorry, might be a dumb question ...