V_2008

Dear, Db How is it possible to use half way points in trading? Is it something like potential support or resistance? Or is it a level which gives us signs of increasing, deacreasing strength of opposite side? Or both? See picture. As Wyckoff wrote: "Rallies and Reactions as Indicators. When, a stock rises 10 points, a normal reaction would be one-half, or 5 points. This does not mean that a stock must react 5 points after an advance of 10. It means that the extent of its reaction, after a rally or an advance is checked, should be regarded as one of the indications of its technical strength or weakness. Strength is indicated by a smaller reaction than one-half. Weakness is indicated by a reaction greater than one-half. That is to say, when a stock declines 10 points, a normal rally would be approximately one-half, or about 5 points. A smaller rally would indicate technical weakness and a greater rally than one-half would indicate technical strength." So, I was using it like this: If I see reaction more then 50%, then I have probability that next rally will not make a new high or up move will be sluggish, as selling wave(-s) has increased. And I will wait, when this up wave will end, before I will try to sell. Some days ago I have discovered that this 1/2 points can represent some sort of support/ resistance. See second picture. If you're referring to Wyckoff's course, you are correct: it is a measure of strength or weakness. As far as trading off it, this would be a factor only if you weren't in the market already on one side or the other. If, for example, you were long and price turned against you, you'd already be out by the time price retraced half its advance. Whether you'd have gone short after you exited would be part of your plan. If price were to bounce at half, that might give you some indication that your short might be in trouble. Without knowing your plan, all I can do is provide generalities. If you're not in the market at all when price penetrates or bounces off one of these levels, entering can be messy since the halfway level is often where traders seek equilibrium, and they can bounce around there for quite some time while you get eaten up. Keep in mind also that it isn't the penetration -- if it does so -- but whether or not price recovers from it. In fact, if price penetrates a level and rejects that penetration, that strengthens importance of the level that it penetrated. IOW, traders really don't want to go there. As far as support and resistance go, yes, insofar as these are levels beyond which traders don't want to go. It doesn't matter whether or not you know the reasons for their rejections of certain levels, only that you acknowledge them and respect them. If you can go beyond that into using them, good for you. Thanks, Db! Need some time to think over.

I was looking for some entries today on NQ. What do you think about this entries and exits? And what about demand supply lines? Did I make mistakes in drawing them? Is it good place to enter long trade within a trading range? Marked "???" on a chart? At the time you take it, you're out of the range. That's why the probability of success is higher.

Hello Tupapa! So from a bigger picture (5H chart) we are still in a down trend from this point of view. Price has pushed through previous support line. But it has pushed through this line with good force and I think good volume. From 5H chart I can't see that this move with high probability will be stopped, as I have already said we have just penetrated previous support. Don't pay attention to 3 bars going lower things, market doesn't care for your abbility to predict reverse. It can be 1 to infinity intervals further. Wyckoff was talking about his chart and his time. It differs from Gold chart. As I can see price hasn't gained any scores to go higher. Potentially we are in a trding range as previous HH has respected high levl of this Pot. TR. I think we have time to evaluate this future contract I think at this time you can look for short high probabilities trades. P.S.: I am not willing to tell you what you must do, but this green line to the upside looks pretty good to put your ego on a first place.

Well Thats pretty clear for me about revisiting of resistance line. I was talking about two lines on whixh I should pay attention. Well as DbPhoenix said we are looking at some different lines. For me this line (which you showed) is median of congestion area from 27.02.2013 1.3098. So price has hitted that line and now what? What are you trying to tell? THis was a major line? Or price has pushed down in hindsight?

I was looking for todays market action and had some trades. But I always see that price don't respect support or resistance levels. In my case I was looking to open short trade. But at point when I had to act, I was in doubt on which level I must pay my attention. So, today I was looking at 1.3125 (red line) as it was tested several times. When I was typing this message I have found one more level 1.3235 (green line), so is it possible to say that Asian session resistance level was more important or at least it could be important? I was looking to short on the last UP wave (arrow). By the way, thank you DbPhoenix for introducing me Stride in its full action in 90 minutes trading forum. Now I can rely on it.

Yeah, thats will be great to read some biography of Wyckoff. To know him as a person.

Oh! What a warm and nice welcome words (admittance?!). Hello to everybody! Its a pleasure for me to post here! Have not seen this recent posts, as I was working with selling and buying waves. Don't know where to post some ideas or mine failures on this waves.... Where is it possible to post them?

As to information which belongs to Wyckoff, I have already read this articles. It is pretty clear for me about what he was telling through his course. Problem is to combine everything. Because , you now, when stride is broken, we see shroter up waves, volume is rising on the up side and after this we still can see further good decline?! By the way I have been using only buying and selling waves for several months to trade. Only duration and time. But I have met a problem which withdrew mine interest of using only this waves. From Wyckoff point of view it is pretty easy to take those failed buying waves or those that are getting to fail and profit from a move. Wyckoff was using something to determine either rally has died out and new wave of selling will come. As he did in my first post. I had also some triggers, after which I would open a trade. But they are only based on effort versus result.Eg. Prolonged down wave without good progress in an up trend. I am sure that at this level of knowledge if I will see a trade which Wyckoff has described in my last post I won't take it. Thats why I was asking about activity (not volume) within wave. Is this activity can be measured? Or it is pretty hard nowadays? I've got one more question about Daily charts. Why Mr. Wyckoff was using Bars instead of Waves? And why it is impossible to judge, lets say, 60 min interval as Daily chart? As to English, I understand pretty good. No problem with it and no wasting money on a good translator

Sorry for being so impolite for not introducing myself earlier. My name is Oleg and I live in Russia, Moscow. I have started to learn markets since 2007 (paterns, guessing, thinking that this is an easy game). Somewhere in 2008 I have noticed your posts. But due to Wyckoff long-windedness and VSA brilliance, I have decided to study VSA. So after 4 years, learning VSA principals I haven't made any success to trade and analyze markets well. I can't say that I have wasted my time learning VSA, they taught me some interesting principals, though I was always thinking that I miss something. By that time being unprofitable trader and thinking that answers on my questions are lying within VSA, one man (very appreciate his persistence to start to learn Wyckoff) has introduced me Wyckoff analyzes (Structure of the market, selling, buying waves, SOS, SOW, Springboards, 50% corrections, time and duration, Philosophy etc) So since 2012 I am a man who has finished learning VSA and has started to learn Wyckoff. I always knew that if I will be willing to learn Wyckoff I will find many followers on Wyckoff analyzes with leader DbPhoenix (not ass licking, but only poor truth). By this time I have read and examined many Wyckoff followers (SMI, Robert Evan, David Weis, Garry Fullet, Dr. Gary Dayton). I have discovered that each person has its own way to learn Wyckoff principals. So I have decided to learn poor Wyckoff principals and understand what is going on?! With followers I was trying to come closer to Wyckoff, not paying attention on fact that I am leaving from his statements. I like to work with buying and selling waves thats why I want to understand it fully, how they works. But not only waves, also other principals in which I am interested. As for me as a person, I am a good man with an open heart, trying to learn hard and help others. P.S.: It can be hard for you to understand what I am telling due to Russian native language. Sorry for making mistakes.

Hello, DbPhoenix! I was trying to identify activity within wave. How it is possible to do better? Like this? Or like this? Also I have a question about calculation of a wave activity. Thanks in advance!

Not quite understood you. Well, it is clear to see in hindsight that this was pretty weak rally after expanding reaction. But how to see this weak rally in foresight using only comparable lifting power or pressure (time and duration)? Thank you!

May be problem here that I hasn't paid to much attention to the die out of a rallying power. Thanks for help!

Hello! I was rereading original course and met some misunderstanding with wave chart, G-H wave. By this time everything is good What I can't understand is this Why Mr. Wyckoff has said that force of demand has died out or has started to die out after 10 minutes of an uptrust? I can believe that after 20 min with progress only 1 1/2 their will be weakness. As previous rally were 4 1/2 points. And after 10 minutes with less 1 1/2 progress their will be weakness.