waveslider

I think these lows are going to hold and the market will turn up. That's just my feeling though of the "perfect" scenario geometrically. I'm still short today, but am covering on weakness (not reversing) today. There is a great screen capturing software(free) called screenhunter. It's super easy to use and it would help us 1000% in understanding your perspective.

Ammo, I'm sure we all enjoy participation from anyone when it is on topic. If you are going to post here would you please at least post some screen shots of what you are talking about? It's hard to see your point of view. Remember - this thread is about timing. Thanks. Blowfish - It is interesting that the esoteric stuff is what intrigues the most, kinda like how a conspiracy theory will live on long after it has been disproved (Elvis? Dead?) Seems like Gann got so famous it snowballed on him and everything he said was golden. I am amazed that he would come up with his angles and other observations with little outside influence. It leads to the question - is there secret knowledge that is handed down through the ages (not just market related, but market applicable)? Back to topic, the S&P did reverse where it was supposed to according to the charts posted earlier, and if the center of this down trend is where I identified it, the end of the move would be tomorrow, friday latest.

Ammo, maybe you could explain a nip - I am assuming its market profile related. I see the trendline you are talking about, but don't necessarily conclude that this is a "bear market". It looks more likely to be a large range.

The S&P is in an 11 day cycle mode, the last of which came last wednesday when the market closed on its lows. We discussed last wednesday being a low in the SPY. Looking at the S&P index, technically there is a reversal day today - monday. It seems highly likely that price will test recent lows. I expect this area to hold and price to retest May highs, here's why: The circle on this chart looks to be the midpoint of this cycle according to the 11 day cycle. That would mean that the current downtrend is due to reverse on the 19th, thursday. I expect price to retest May highs because price appears to have hit it's target in the range and it is trying to reverse. When the time is right it likely will. That will likely be at the end of the week.

are the distances between horiz./ vertical lines fixed based on the square root of price? question: do you think that gann works all the time, or is there certain times when things line up and gann is high probability?

I nominate you for post of the day.:) Agree completely with what you said about it being a guide. Money management and wife's birthday most important.

well you would have had it by the close. There was some weird stuff going on in the last half hour, as I was watching SDS. SDS is the double-inverse ETF for the S&P. It has huge volume because you don't have to borrow it to hedge, so fund managers must use is A LOT instead of the e-mini. There are legal reasons for this. Anyway, the strange thing was that bid was going over offer quite a bit, indicating that someone was shorting this level big time. That matching move chart I just put up for SPY is pretty compelling.

OK I had to post this as an addendum to the last timing chart I posted - - I still haven't decided whether to use SPY or ES for this. They are different in certain respects, especially timing. This chart shows that SPY has nearly completed a perfect matching move in price and time:

OAC (and Kahuna) is there one particular level that you use religiously?

What about entering points of control instead of hh and ll? here is an auto square of 9 code for TS if anyone is interested. I don't fully understand it, maybe someone can explain it to me, but it sure shows some interesting levels. Use on intraday charts. [LegacyColorValue = true]; { Indicator: Sof9 "Square of Nine" by W.D.Gann Codetalker modified Steven code codetalker@codetalkerworld.com March 25,2003 mod by mido 9/13/2003 sadhu@myacc.net } Inputs: TextPlaceTime(1200), { Place the text (if any) at this time location } TextColor(magenta), { Text Color } LineColor(magenta), LineStyle_1to5(2), LineWidth_0to6(0), ExtLeft(false), BaseNumber(1); Vars: xloop(0), Counter(0), Degree(""), ID(-1), n(3); Variables: ZeroDegrees(1), FortyFiveDegrees(2), NinetyDegrees(3), OneThirtyFiveDegrees(4), OneEightyDegrees(5), TwoTwentyFiveDegrees(6), TwoSeventyDegrees(7), ThreeFifteenDegrees(8); { Array Index Positions } Variables: DegreeSections(8), { This only defines 8 major degree sections } FullArrayCount(49), { I want Array dimensions definable with variables....Like these....Hello TS...come-on } MyBaseNumber(0); { Used to build a contant } Arrays: DegreeOfAngle[8,49](0), DegreeOfAngleWord[8](""); { This little dll is used to return a degree symbol string for us...it could of course return any specific ascii character/symbol } DefineDLLFunc: "CT_CharKit.dll", LpStr,"CT_RetAsciiStr",Int,Int; { Ascii value, Number of Repeats } If CurrentBar=1 Then Begin MyBaseNumber=BaseNumber*7; DegreeOfAngle[ZeroDegrees,0]=BaseNumber*2; DegreeOfAngle[FortyFiveDegrees,0]=BaseNumber*3; DegreeOfAngle[NinetyDegrees,0]=BaseNumber*4; DegreeOfAngle[OneThirtyFiveDegrees,0]=BaseNumber*5; DegreeOfAngle[OneEightyDegrees,0]=BaseNumber*6; DegreeOfAngle[TwoTwentyFiveDegrees,0]=BaseNumber*7; DegreeOfAngle[TwoSeventyDegrees,0]=BaseNumber*8; DegreeOfAngle[ThreeFifteenDegrees,0]=BaseNumber*9; Degree=CT_RetAsciiStr(176,1); { The degree symbol number....from my font selection anyway } DegreeOfAngleWord[ZeroDegrees]=" - 0"+Degree; DegreeOfAngleWord[FortyFiveDegrees]=" - 45"+Degree; DegreeOfAngleWord[NinetyDegrees]=" - 90"+Degree; DegreeOfAngleWord[OneThirtyFiveDegrees]=" - 135"+Degree; DegreeOfAngleWord[OneEightyDegrees]=" - 180"+Degree; DegreeOfAngleWord[TwoTwentyFiveDegrees]=" - 225"+Degree; DegreeOfAngleWord[TwoSeventyDegrees]=" - 270"+Degree; DegreeOfAngleWord[ThreeFifteenDegrees]=" - 315"+Degree; For xLoop = 1 to FullArrayCount Begin DegreeOfAngle[ZeroDegrees,xLoop]=DegreeOfAngle[ZeroDegrees,(xloop-1)]+DegreeOfAngle[ZeroDegrees,0]+MyBaseNumber+(8*(xLoop-1)); DegreeOfAngle[FortyFiveDegrees,xLoop]=DegreeOfAngle[FortyFiveDegrees,(xloop-1)]+DegreeOfAngle[FortyFiveDegrees,0]+MyBaseNumber+(8*(xLoop-1)); DegreeOfAngle[NinetyDegrees,xLoop]=DegreeOfAngle[NinetyDegrees,(xloop-1)]+DegreeOfAngle[NinetyDegrees,0]+MyBaseNumber+(8*(xLoop-1)); DegreeOfAngle[OneThirtyFiveDegrees,xLoop]=DegreeOfAngle[OneThirtyFiveDegrees,(xloop-1)]+DegreeOfAngle[OneThirtyFiveDegrees,0]+MyBaseNumber+(8*(xLoop-1)); DegreeOfAngle[OneEightyDegrees,xLoop]=DegreeOfAngle[OneEightyDegrees,(xloop-1)]+DegreeOfAngle[OneEightyDegrees,0]+MyBaseNumber+(8*(xLoop-1)); DegreeOfAngle[TwoTwentyFiveDegrees,xLoop]=DegreeOfAngle[TwoTwentyFiveDegrees,(xloop-1)]+DegreeOfAngle[TwoTwentyFiveDegrees,0]+MyBaseNumber+(8*(xLoop-1)); DegreeOfAngle[TwoSeventyDegrees,xLoop]=DegreeOfAngle[TwoSeventyDegrees,(xloop-1)]+DegreeOfAngle[TwoSeventyDegrees,0]+MyBaseNumber+(8*(xLoop-1)); DegreeOfAngle[ThreeFifteenDegrees,xLoop]=DegreeOfAngle[ThreeFifteenDegrees,(xloop-1)]+DegreeOfAngle[ThreeFifteenDegrees,0]+MyBaseNumber+(8*(xLoop-1)); End; End; { CurrentBar=1 } if DayofWeek(CurrentDate) >= 4 then n=3 else n=6; if DateToJulian(Date) = (DateToJulian(CurrentDate)-n) then begin if BarType <=1 then begin {intraday minute or tick bars only } if Date <> Date[1] then begin { day changed } for xLoop = 1 to DegreeSections begin for counter = 1 to FullArrayCount begin Value1 = TL_New(Date,0950,DegreeOfAngle[xLoop,Counter],Date,1155,DegreeOfAngle[xLoop,Counter]); TL_SetColor(Value1,LineColor); TL_SetStyle(Value1,LineStyle_1to5); TL_SetSize(Value1,LineWidth_0to6); TL_SetExtRight(Value1,true); TL_SetExtLeft(Value1,ExtLeft); ID = Text_New(CurrentDate,TextPlaceTime,DegreeOfAngle[xLoop,Counter]+ 1 point,NumToStr(DegreeOfAngle[xLoop,Counter],0)+DegreeOfAngleWord[xLoop]); Value2 = Text_SetColor(ID,TextColor); end; end; end; end; end;

My last chart suggesting the cycle end coming in on june 19th was pretty arty. I was using my eye to picture whether the wave size is expanding or contracting. It appears to be expanding. To be completely unbiased, here is the current picture using a strict 4 bar pivot cycle. The cycle end is due on friday. This yellow line keeps catching my eye. 2 touches on either side of the price cross. Tempting buy here, still to early according to these cycles..

could you explain this further or give an example? Where would the range be entered into your spreadsheet for example. Thanks

You know, I am suspicious about this one... I think the pullback may have further to run. I wrote about it in the "timing method" thread here.

Thanks BK - I understand, and this is very similar to the article thrunner mentioned on tradingfives. By the way, BigKahuna, don't know if you are from hawaii or not. I just got back from the big island and haole gave some skin to da reef bra. Only was able to surf for a day, but paid for it good. As far as your support and resistance idea, I guess you could just take major peaks/troughs, create these calculations and look for confluence. Lots of work, but so it goes..

still that's really a low-life thing to do. Why not just sell a link to trader's lab?

Its an elegant method, Kahuna. How did you come on the 38 bar cycle? Which chart service do you use?

Here's the QQQQ chart posted earlier, pattern completed. A good one to study.

Ok although the close was higher, the low was penetrated, and there was a low range day, as suggested. Volatility has contracted and price is approaching a pivotal point in time and price but it's not ready to turn yet according to this cycle - here's why: This chart takes the bearish opinion I posted last week. This suggested that last tuesday, the 22nd was the halfway mark for the current pullback in progress. The reason for that was because the cycle high did not come in as a high, indicating a larger wave was in progress. All I did was take this cycle and extend it back to look for confirmation. Just about every cycle day is a major price reversal or a volatility contraction. The major cycle here is 22 days, and you will notice at the halfway mark 11 days is also important. This cycle suggests a low coming on 6/19, or next Thursday. On the market profile chart there are 3 VPOC levels to be hit below, first one around 1320. According to this cycle chart price will move up until wednesday, then down into next thursday's time reversal. As many have probably noticed, there is a potential wolfe wave that price is at pt. 5 of (not drawn). Personally, I don't think it'll work out. The dark cyan lines show where a matching move would take price, about 1339.5. This suggests something of a double bottom is in the works, though it may just look like a price spike on this daily time frame.

Ok I am ready to release my ultimate system. It's very simple. Get a lot of traders together in one room. When they hit buy, you sell. 90% of traders go broke in the first year, so you just get rid of the 10% and you have a cash cow. Volunteers? :ciao:

In the past month I have been applying gann lines as I see the experts do it, surprisingly accurate. Just like anything else, you have to establish a discipline to trade them. I don't have that personally, but they appear very much worth investigating. Have read that trading fives article, thrunner, and was tempted to try to program it, the idea impressed me.. I'm sure someone has exploited that idea, but variations are always possible - - the limits are in the mind of the trader! Hilarious, OAC , I have the exact same median line on my charts. Like that one, I think I drew it on YM and it's identical. Back to this topic, wanted to point out one variation that I mentioned last week (last wednesday, the doji bar). So what it looks like is going on is that a larger wave (down) is taking place. Volatility contracted into the reversal day on wednesday, and it appears to be expanding out in a downward direction. The bullish scenario are the white lines - this is the larger wave. In this bullish scenario, time tried to reverse too early on Thursday, and had to do that move down on Friday in order to establish a low on the proper reversal day. I hope anyone reading can follow me here... The thing that I would like to point out here is that using gann calculations and fib numbers, etc. - these are fixed ratios/numbers. But as we know, the market is dynamic and wave sizes are always changing, or being affected by multiple waves. The only ratio I personally pay attention to is 50%, because this is a natural balance. The key to be watching, and how to trade the charts I am posting is to note volatility expansion and compression. Currently the market is in a period of expansion after thursday and friday's wide ranges. We should see range contract soon, possibly monday. If friday's lows hold and volatility expands higher, the white lines are in effect.

Thanks, wow that's quite a pattern reaction. Now that its played out, and the equities market hasn't responded in turn as dramatically as oil, there is probably a long play there.

Not familiar with him. Does he talk about his methodology? Here is a larger cycle, 57 bars or 82 days, which is hitting today. Should Monday prove to be a reversal, it will likely be a major bottom.

Wolfie takes charge! half hour chart of QQQQ

ammo- how do you track the 90 day cycle? I have noticed a 30 day cycle that must be a sub-cycle of this (not monthly - 30 trading days).

nice symmetry. What software do you use?