waveslider

? Could you give a description of what exactly this is useful for? thanks

OK correction, I got my indicator out and looked at it. Its a standard error around a linear regression average. So definitely different. If nothing else they look pretty.

Sigma bands are related to a standard deviation from a mean, usually a moving average (why not). The example has a very tight average and normally the average is wide, so that if price reaches 2 std. devs. then supposedly you have a 90% chance of a bounce. Why? It's stretched too far. How many have tried to find indicators that show price has stretched too far? People trying to catch tops and bottoms. They go out of business quick. Hurst was the one that made these famous, and I haven't read Hurst so feel free to correct me.

Man if you are quick these are killer times to be scalping ES! My futures account is up 25% in the past month and a half. Money I manage has been in cash quite a bit, up about 1.5% in the past month and a half. These are the times that prove what how adaptive you are.

Global slowdown, not just in the US. US dollar is still a relative safe haven. This is more macro than interest rate cuts

Blowfish's point is very valid that this is an unproven fork. Still, it is what it is - mechanically this is the target for the move. Sliding along lower is common, and the forks can become a trend channel - all valid points. I really hate trying to call bottoms, but here is another interesting chart using gap analysis. The gap at the 50% mark created the target of the current low in place. I think its likely that this is a short term low. Not to say it won't be lower in a month.

It's just about there. This is a MONTHLY chart. I'm not calling a bottom here, in fact it could bounce around this area for quite some time. Then again it could hammer out of here. Tough market, I can't bear to hold a short overnight. Longs all fail. Its intraday and that's it

So it would take out the "adam" and then head north? Will be interesting to see if this pitchfork holds. Not likely given the strong trend.

On the 10 minute ES chart > Key aspect here was the volume, notice the high volume, nice tapering and then explosion. This is a good pattern to keep in the back of your head. ALthough it's a classic, I think I learned the most about it from Alan Farley's book. ws

Those are both powerful tools. A good trader can make money with crappy tools. A bad trader can lose money with good tools. Brown's right, there has to be a plan for every situation.

no you don't need the 2nd package. Welcome to the forum!

I was just having this conversation, and I really don't know. Possibly via puts on SPY, I wonder if they figured it into the business model. Since the banks that offer it are the ones who make a market in it, they control the spread and can net quite a bit that way...

FWIW there are plenty of "inverse" ETFs that you can short the market with. SDS has 29 million shares traded on average each day!

How about that? Here's the after shot of that chart pattern I put up the other day. It looked good to me, but to be honest I often get skeptical with this pattern on the higher time frames. I hope some of you guys got those moves today, crazy rides. I had got some of that first 40 pts, and quite a bit out of the second move. The key was how that 1-3 line acted as support after price blast through it, from there it was the easiest 20-30 points I've ever seen! This is a good one to study.

FWIW, I get the secrets of traders emails and started reading them recently because, well the guy is actually on the floor everyday. Maybe he gets a feel for the chatter? I think he does. One interesting thing he mentioned before that I didn't know (though I don't watch CNBC or any TV) is that the traders put on Chef's hats when new "important" economic numbers are released. Is any one else discouraged that it is common knowledge that the US government blatantly "cooks the books"? I know its a different topic. Back to the dude who started this topic (sorry forgot your handle) - a good thing you are humble enough to admit your mistake. Tip for everyone looking for instruction/method: the seller must provide actual entries and exits that you can verify personally to see if they are achievable. They should provide, on request, a copy of their brokerage statement to verify these entries (they should be taking the same trades). As was mentioned, the "secrets of traders" are within themselves and their discipline, not the method. yeah!

This is more like what I'm talkin about, 5 min chart, here's what I like: Its more horizontal Nice volume move off point 3 nice volume move into point 2 nice direct move from 4 to 5 nice triple touch to 1-3 line the 1-4 line was touched once from the upside good potential for a 40 pt move if price can stay above 1165.

Hey Bubba, A bit ugly since it looks like not so much a range as trend - - But I will be the first to say that the ones that look "perfect" are the worst ones!!! I really dont like the 4-5 wave- its so choppy... I DO like the volume pattern, that looks pretty good especially at point 3 and 5. Regardless the 1-3 line you drew is an important channel line, thanks for pointing this out.

how about an obituary?

Just to chip in, here are some major factors which I have found with these patterns. As OAC mentioned, there are overshoots and undershoots that dramatically affect the validity of these patterns. This is because of volatility in the market, or because of a larger picture trend shift going on. Multiple time frame analysis is extremely important. It is critical that if you are aware of this potential and to be careful getting married to these "perfect storm" set-ups. The very very best set-ups I have seen, picture perfect, are routinely annihilated. It is very important to have a solid discipline for entry and exit (almost mechanical) to accompany this type of trading. That way you are covered in case of overshoot, undershoot, and failure. Good thread Carl, hope you are taking notes along the way.

Its all about the move from point 4 to point 5. If this is choppy, the pattern is either negated, or the target becomes closer. Move your target line to be less aggressive in chop. WW and Andrews are 2 methods that have been working very well in these choppy markets recently.

Waiting for a trade and thought I would chime in. There are a lot of well thought ideas here, and I think those of you who are getting down to WHO the actual trader/teacher is (personality type) and who the actual student is are on track. It goes without saying that time is money (ok I said it), and not trading to teach is giving up potential $. My point is that if the TEACHER is a great trader, but not a good teacher, or the STUDENT is full of desire, but has a personality problem (need to be right, fear of losing, etc.), then both are wasting their time AND money. If or when you become a successful trader, you inevitably run across people (friends too) who don't understand what you do, but envy your lifestyle. Working at home, creating your own hours, etc. Personally I have had people ask me to teach them, but I am not a teacher (in my mind). Furthermore, I do believe that certain personality types become profitable traders much more quickly than others, and the wrong personality type will take many years (that's me). My point once again is if you happen to find a mentor who is a good teacher - are you a good enough student to be able to radically change your whole life in the short period that you are being mentored? Because this is what most people would have to do! The point of this thread : how much would you be willing to pay? Is somewhat moot from the students standpoint, because that amount of money will not make you profitable. Only time and dedication can make you profitable (and sufficient capital). Not the method. From a teachers standpoint, you should be doing it out of the kindness of your heart and love of teaching. This is because it is not reasonable to expect your students to overcome their personality issues in the time you are mentoring them. If you charge them anything other than your cost to mentor them, you are actually hurting them and their ability to succeed (imagine teaching someone to fish but charging them line). Even better, a teacher should think of it from a karmic standpoint, as someone mentioned earlier. Someone taught them, and they feel obligated to do the same.

The most powerful trait a trader can have is restraint! I agree. Jesse Livermore: Remember this : when you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap the benefits from their mistakes.

Its a good idea, but my stops are VERY close sometimes (usually not more than 2 pts in ES) , So I would not know if the position was still active or not, and may be putting on a naked hedge. What happens if my stop is hit and the broker doesn't fill it because his network is down too? Tradestation has their stops held until they are activated (not actually in the markets), unless I am mistaken. That works for longer term positions, of course, but a intraday outage wouldn't affect those positions so much.

Update - TS did refund me for the $ lost during their outage. Still, I was unhappy in how they dealt with the whole situation in general. There was very little updating, everyone was in the dark, wait time on the phone was 3+ hours. The platform is good, the data is good, could be better. Forsearch is right about diversification, but sometimes that still doesn't help when you can't get the broker on the phone. Frank's probably right about the architecture, it would cost them a lot to start over, and would be worth it to their clients, but not the company. Agree that easylanguage is truly great.

Thank you VERY much jlurkin, this is important knowledge from experience which may have saved me a year to figure out. I have been hearing about issues with IB's data feed, what that also getting multiple products on the same charts? Quality? Speed? Will take a look at sierra charts too.