waveslider

If I could find a way to benefit from signals off of the indices, I'd be very rich. I have a mechanical strategy that just kills the Russell on all time frames. Problem is that there is no product that accurately matches the index's moves.

Think that might be the compression? Probably need more data

I don't think Bush was in cahoots with Tony Soprano necessarily, but I think that the administration may have chosen to ignore some warning signals with the knowledge that it could lead to some major terror act. Recently there was a story of an FBI agent who, while tracking a suspect in august before the attack, came across documents which included western union numbers to the perpetrators. This was not the only case, I recall reading several stories where CIA and FBI reports were basically ignored. I realize there are thousands of threats each week to deal with, but you gotta believe some are much more credible than others. Like some Arabs taking flying lessons and quitting before the lesson on "how to land". Bush didn't engineer it, but it was in his interests to allow an attack coming from a Muslim nation so that he could blame the middle east and have an excuse to set up shop in Iraq. And take a crack at the job his dad failed at. What gets me most about this stuff - regardless of who did it - is the attitude of the Bush's and others who say "we will not leave until we are successful". How long does this attitude last when you are trading futures!? We traders know the importance of cutting losses, sacrificing ego and pride, and most importantly -SEEING OBJECTIVELY. This bull-headed stubborn attitude is very childish, and we should expect more from our leaders.

I think you need more data up. I use a tick chart with 1500 bars of data.

Try this one, you have to fool around with the fonts of the letters and zoom in here and there. MARKETPROFILE.ELD

"The book uses a 9-day range for its triggers. I prefer a 5-day range." Why 5? The nine looks smoother. Coincidentally, Gann and Demark seem attracted to the number nine (the beatles too).

FWIW, though there is a lot of emotion in the market right now, there is a good case for calling this market a ranging one. For one, the major down move in August retraced the entire up leg that Mar-July achieved. This is the kind of thing the system doesn't see - it is stupid, it just does the same thing over and over again. Still it makes money! That's because it is often doing the contrarian action. Contrarian actions make money, but it takes balls to be a contrarian - and you have to have a good strategy.

ok nevermind. I see you changed the code. I notice it works best when the market is not trending (majority of the time). That's a good way to operate if you can cut losses in the trends.

Dogpile, I am getting different results with your strategy. What is the max bars the strategy will see?

Dogpile, It's a good project. The system is simple and has no parameters, that's great. I think the problem is where you said "I may even skip signals if Market Profile context or something else strongly favors it". So what exactly is your mission statement here? I think its great to add mechanical aspects to your trading.. its an objective signal staring at you in the face. Problem is the objective signal is no good if you pay no attention to it. Maybe you could just use the strategy as a filter - so you would only take long trades (using market profile, or whatever) when the system is long. Then if you decide to go against the system you could track how well you are "beating the system". I know Art Collins is pretty opinionated on over-riding systems, you probably read that in the book (is it a good read by the way?) The problem with just tracking the system mechanically real time is that its really boring. The chart you put up has the system going sideways (commissions included?) for over a year. Most people would drop the system or over-ride it in that time. I think that is the one of the main attractions to discretionary trading - the idea that you can outsmart the market with your own intelligence. I run a daytrading system on all of the minis that makes money. I basically babysit it and trade my clients money on an end of day basis (hence why I am here typing). So it makes money -that's the point. But its boring. Someday when I feel super financially secure I will start trading using discretion -for fun mostly. I think you are embarking on a good project! By watching mechanical systems trade real time, you actually can learn quite a bit, especially when you juxtapose the results with your own bias and emotions. ws

Here's another one that I was watching in the RUT. Pretty shallow but effective. There are some important rules for this trade, but if they are satisfied the % profitable is very good. Best used in a non trending market. #5 was the fakeout/failure Connecting a line between #1 and #4 gave the target

This might be a different discussion altogether, but it seems to come to the root of this discussion also.. Do you trust the US govt to make the best decisions for the US citizens(and the world, since it is the most powerful and influential country). Are the motivations of the US govt in line with the people? The first time that the US govt had a real challenge to it in recent years was the rejection of the Vietnam war by the majority of the people. While the US didn't want to admit that that was a real factor in pulling out (the official reason was "negotiations"), it realized that a mis-alignment of policy with popular opinion can actually lead to revolution (Nixon admitted this later in his memoirs). Wasn't it Lincoln who said that the only way the US could actually be brought down would be from within? That would be by straying from a govt "for the people, of the people, by the people". Personally, this government is far from aligning with my opinion. It would be nice to put the fear into the government and give it some accountability for some of the legislation (ie. patriot act) it is attempting in the name of fear.

If you do enough trades to pay for the platform, do tradestation. I have been with them for years and find them more than adequate. The commissions are excellent and the platform is stable. Data is above average.

PS you must be a breakout trader

JBtrades- if you study history (as traders we must), you will find numerous examples where leaders (political, religious, etc.) use deception to place the "average joe" into a more agreeable state to accept the leadership's agenda. In this case a part of the agenda is apparently control of the middle east and its oil reserves. If you can't see the strategic importance of this area to the US government, your head is in the sand. As OAC mentioned, as traders we have to think independently. This means thinking objectively and seeing every angle of a situation. 911 created a perfect excuse to launch a thousand ships and attempt dominance of an area and culture which has always alluded US control. Days before 911 occurred, massive put options on airline companies and stock indices were executed. The US government knows who profited from 911. It's like the Dude paraphrased (Lebowski) : "It's like what Lenin said... you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh, uh... " (Donny: I am the walrus.) Bush was elected by oil money, the defense industry, etc. His vice president is on the board of Halliburton - who got the contract to rebuild Iraq. HELLO? His job is to pay back the price of his soul to these people. By the way, if you are really skeptical against conspiracies, check out Robert Anton Wilson's "The Illuminatus", if you dare!

Yeah looks like the break out was as expected - but nice volume past few days. The dollar index will have to fall for this break out to hold.

If you draw a relative strength line vs. the S&P gold is certainly outperforming just about everything in the market except bonds since the down move earlier this month. The violent sell offs just can't hold, so far...

6 months GLD has been coiling sideways near weekly highs. Notice how the 50% levels line up from 2 sets of peaks/troughs. The spike down through the lower line last thursday was a good violent move if you look at the intra-day. It could have scared the weak hands enough to send this to new highs. The way GLD has consolidated near highs on the weekly chart seems bullish. However I think there could be made a case for an "adam and eve" style top looking at the weekly. Any opinions?

Here's another one that just played out on YM. Point 1 took place at 8:05 PST. The fake-out and entry was at 10:16 PST. Approx. 30pt return.

It really only works in a consolidation phase of the market. I believe point one is supposed to be the first pivot in the range, then point 2 is an attempt at a new high/low, which would fail (confirming range), then point 3 is a low below point 1 which also fails.... Basically it is a pattern whipsawing a lot of people, the more the better. When there is momentum in a market, like there is here, the range is broken and price inverts into a larger wave rather than staying in a range.

Torero, you are correct about the rising wedge. Wolfe goes deeper than the wedge though. What happens is that the rising wedge is rejected and the market creates a target for itself when the geometry gets skewed. I am not the best instructor, but there is info out there on this pattern. If you are a visually oriented trader, this is a very valuable pattern to know. Guarantee you the professionals see this, it is a contrarian pattern so creates a quick and powerful move. The trick is to be able to see it developing as it happens. Here is another guy who sees it and understands. Bill Wolfe doesn't use fibs, and I don't think you need to either. http://blog.fxinstructor.com/august-1-2007-ny-live-trading-room-summary/ Go to Bill Wolfe's site to learn the pattern, if you google you will find it. If YM holds this morning's lows (and the 1-3 line), then this pattern is set to run. The target is a good 800 points higher. Closing above today's open would be a good first confirmation, above Friday's high would be another. The weekly ER2 chart I posted shows the power of this pattern as it is completed! Target hit perfectly. In consolidation patterns you start seeing these all over the place...

PS that was a weekly chart

When you start looking for these, they appear all over. ER2 just completed one, check it out.... Line 1-4 is the target line

Torero, google "wolfe wave" to learn the pattern. Technically I would call it a descending wedge. Point 2 is the recent high. Point five is the bar from friday, which penetrated the 1-3 line. The target line is 1-4. Sorry, I should have labeled this chart better.

Yeah it's a 12345 with the target line connecting 1 and 4. I think Rasche called it 3 indians, but bill wolfe coined the pattern originally. His site might be the best place to investigate it. Understanding how this pattern works, the dynamics behind it, can spark some really interesting insights on how markets work. This is a killer trade when it sets up.