waveslider

Agree with that analysis. 50-53 high volume resistance zone? what's that?

I agree with Ravin on all his points. To me Friday looked like a SS day, as does today as long as the morning high remains intact. So that would make tomorrow a buy day? And a low can be expected in the morning. I am having a little issue here with "shoving square pegs into round holes". If friday was a sell short day. I think the problem is in the naming of the days - it just sounds too definitive to label a day when you don't know what will happen tomorrow. IMHO it should be called a "potential SS day" until confirmed. But when its confirmed its too late! It seems like what the goal here is, is to fade the direction and look for signs that confirm your fading intentions. Friday gapped up and couldn't hold those levels, as today is doing - so far. There have been some adequate "buy days" to alleviate an oversold condition. So start fading short! What if a longer term time frame is over-riding this 3 day cycle and that underlying trend strength negates all sell short days? I know I am rambling here, and I need to re-read the method. However, the three day cycle seems a little too simplistic to me. Observing when the high/low of the day came in seems very useful, as Dogpile noted. Gary is taking a noble quest up, it could be worthwhile. It would be nice to have a reference of "if....then" type scenarios to place the methodology in perspective.

USE VWAP For some reason I couldn't think of it that way - is it pretty accurate? (I mean close to the POC) I guess you are a west coaster too, with the time you gave. Nice time of year here!

Hi dogpile, from my angle the screen looked blurry - it there a way to fix that? I particularly like how you take the POC and place a purple line where it was for the day. Wouldn't it be great if we had the code to do that automatically? What I am finding particularly useful in taylor analysis, as it seems you are, is observing whether the high or low of the day came first or last. The three day cycle has some inherent problems. When it's there, great, but then it disappears. When a market is strong, or becoming more volatile, it will go through an "inverse" - some of you know what I am talking about already. If you don't, an inverse is usually a halfway point in a trend. It is where the market would normally reverse if the previous cycle had remained intact. A quick comment for why? - sorry if I came across a little frustrated with your style of contribution. Please contribute what you will, but keep your remarks about your "software" to yourself - they do the rest of us no good. Most of us would never be able to immediately duplicate what you spent 7 years creating anyway. If you wish to share the software, great. Many of us have posted code here on the forum for the benefit of all. You can be assured that every trader uses a tool with a different approach, so it is unlikely that your edge would disappear after posting. You can also do what antonio did (with his killer marketprofile code - those were the days) and make your code working for only a finite period of time . Anyway, no hard feelings. ws

Hey blowfish. I see these things all the time, if you look for them you will. There are variations of the pattern that occur even more frequently, but it's good to master one pattern at the time, then observe the nuances. I don't mind posting one every once in a while if people are interested. I have not paid for the course ($3000 or something), but have worked closely with those who have. I understand it for the most part, have used it, made money off of it.

Quote: Also, maybe as a project Dogpile and WHY? could try to agree on the stage of the cycle as we go, day by day. It would be great to learn this stuff real time. "I think we calculate the day differently. I don't understand how he does it and I can't tell him how I do it." WHY? - - I don't understand why you can't tell him how you do it. What is the point of this thread? I am inclined to agree with Dogpile's comments about just watching the high and low tests - but who needs Taylor for this? I suggest that this thread needs some direction and someone to take the initiative. WHY? seems to have some software that outlines the Taylor method, assuming you understand it, how about taking the lead on this thread and adding some value instead of "I don't understand how he does it and I can't tell him how I do it." We are here to learn a method of establishing a point of reference in the market, Taylor seems to offer this. The idea of a 3 day cycle does have merit, when it is valid, what we are all looking for is an objective method of determining: where we are in the cycle, or is there actually a cycle intact? Maybe WHY? you could change your name to WHYNOT?

Hey Patuca, way to introduce yourself with some intelligent questions. I have been lurking this thread for a while. I got into Taylor via. George Angell, who had some interesting ideas. But I just sort of forgot about the 3 day cycle thing. The idea has become more valid to me now that I am scaling into positions for a slightly longer term (3-5 days). I am re-reading it now, and catching up on posts. I have a range indicator I developed for tradestation a while back, the idea by Angell. It involves projecting a range for the day based on the days open. Did either of you read Angell's stuff? Also, maybe as a project Dogpile and WHY? could try to agree on the stage of the cycle as we go, day by day. It would be great to learn this stuff real time.

If you don't listen to math rock, maybe you should (as a trader!). This stuff maybe more appreciated by musicians who can understand the work that goes into music like this (compared with pop/mainstream music). Anyway, here is one of my favorite bands. Check out the vibraphone at the end of the song... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNlKAfAFm1U

Is this the same indicator just recently posted?

Reaver - There is geometry in the markets, no doubt about it. The challenge is finding a discipline, or system of application to approach trading from that standpoint. Just simple price channels and andrew's pitchforks will convince you, if you have that eye to see them. Price patterns in the market require training your eye and your mind. People use horizontal levels quite a bit. These are the same, but very limited as they are pretty much one dimensional. In a range, these horizontal levels are applicable. But as we know, increasing momentum creates dynamic movements that blow through horizontal levels as price establishes a directional vector. Pattern reading is an art, like the VSA people will tell you their method is also. It is a way of reading charts to see the underlying balance in the market. You can either see this stuff, or you don't. Or you don't care. Wolfe waves are accurate patterns which demonstrate when price oversteps where it "should" go, which then sends it over-reacting in the other direction. It is a pattern built on simple psychology. Just to give an example of geometry, the 5 min Russell chart is the first chart I pulled up. The green lines are the exact same angle. They could have been drawn after the move up in the morning. As price dropped into the afternoon, this was the level it accelerated off of, because that vector had been established by price momentum. When you combine that channel with a key horizontal level, you have the price and time for trend resumption. How many people saw what I just put up real time? I guarantee you that same channel was on some peoples charts. This gets into some pretty advanced concepts. The andrew's line gave an accurate short term target on this chart. Andrews illustrates the bisection of the counter-trend movement to give a natural price target. ramble ramble, time for sleep. anyone interested in this we can start a new thread.

That code is far from the actual pattern. Wolfe waves are very powerful, but they have to be understood to be used correctly. Takes practice.

Actually he says at the bottom, globex doesn't do this on e-minis - of course. Still it's and interesting idea.

Important point he makes about how your margin requirement (should be) lowered if you have a proper spread on. So you can trade more contracts and the small amount the spread changes becomes a worthwhile trade. Note he says this is mostly for position trading over longer term periods. I have found the hourly charts look nice. I'll get some charts up soon.

Here are some reasons to consider tracking and trading the spread between 2 different futures contracts. This is taken from Bob Carver's Marketclues website. This guy is sharp. Basically you create an equal weight spread between 2 different contracts - one part long one part short. I would like to start a discussion on this concept. It is particularly interesting to me because, in my observations, the spreads do trend very well, and when there is a directional move, you are almost hedged as all markets will move in conjunction. Anyway - here are his points and here is the whole article: http://www.marketclues.net/spreads.html # Spreads eliminate the need to call market direction correctly in order to make a profit. Instead, profits are taken out of the market simply by correctly determining which index will outperform another index, a considerably easier task to many than determining whether the market itself will move up or down. # Spreads trend extremely well for longer periods of time than the underlying market direction. # Spreads are very margin efficient due to the spread credit given by the exchange as the daily volatility is considerably lower than an outright position. Margin efficiency can mean bigger profits from spreads than outright positions when the spread is trending well. # Spreads are less risky than an outright position due to the fact that news will often move both sides of the spread in the same direction. Unexpected bad news would tend move the market sharply lower, but it moves both sides of the spread lower, increasing the value of the short side of the spread. This allows the spread to be held overnight, rather than day-traded, to avoid surprise developments.

Oh yeah stockfetcher is great! Don't use them for charting, you can get that free somewhere if you use EOD. Stockfetcher is powerful scanning, good as it gets.

genesis tradenavigator is very good, but expensive. I think neoticker looks good, but never used it

http://marketclues.blogspot.com/ Hi board. This guy Bob I have watched for years, and listened to. He utilizes some great non-conventional methods that have good merit. He is particularly knowledgeable about creating spreads with futures trading - ever thought of that? When you chart the spreads you will! The pay commentary is very good but the free commentary is excellent. Hope you enjoy it. Oh yeah - - polytrendlines! He does some great analysis with these, and I've never heard of anyone else using them.

no data fee w/ ts if you do the minimum # trades through their platform. Fixed rate for CME futures

Dog/Ant Here's a trick that works for me... For multiple entries try fading your first entry, second entry on breakout (more confirmation). The break out should be above your fade entry. If your fade entry doesn't work (keeps blowing the wrong way) set exit at breakeven.

MC, I noticed you use a lot of indicators. Do you have a favorite, and why?

I used to be 100% discretionary and adamant about it. That was before I began programming systems that work. I love charts/trading, always will. But in my experience, going with at least partial automation made my life a hell of a lot easier, less stressful. A system I run on e-minis is completing its 3rd profitable trade of the day. 3 for 3 on the day. It excelled in the past months due to volatility. Not to say it doesn't have draw-downs, every system does, and so do discretionary traders. It's to each his/her own as far as this topic goes. I was able to clean up the house and have a relaxing morning because the computer was programmed to look for what I would have looked for, and do what I would have done. Computerized trading does work. Whenever the market has great volatility, someone will get hammered, and the media will get a hold of it. But you won't hear much from the systems traders who are successful, they have no reason to make themselves known. It's easy to feel too stressed in your trading, like I was. If you are reading this and that's what you feel, decide whether it's worth it. Trading can drive you crazy, its such a head game. If you can quantify your edge and act with confidence based on statistics, its a little less crazy.

If you are trading more than one contract, Brown, how do you decide when it is time to scale up to the next level? Do you use a formula?

Number of contracts doesn't matter so much, the methodology for scaling up or down based on - what - is the question. In my testing, fixed frational seems to have the least relative drawdown. I have done testing on Ryan Jones' fixed ratio and it jumped my system from 1 contract to 18. Yeah it ended up winning, but whoa!

You have a good method. The strength of the index chart seems to be less distortion on a bar by bar basis. Patterns become more evident. However the index does move more slowly than the futures. And ETFs don't have the same volatility. That is why my strategy (a trending one) doesn't work so well. It is a good filter though, especially when using multiple time frames.

Martingale, Anti-Martingale, Fixed ratio, Fixed Fractional, Kelly... Does anyone use these ideas or are most people here trading one lot, or small?