waveslider

conservative entry....

ER2 466 tick chart, developing potential.....

if you are using an hourly chart you could say "if date<>date[1] then..." and then save the high and low of this bar using whatever variables you want. This is just a way of identifying the first bar of the session.

Hello board, I have been recently looking into way of quantifying breadth and got some inspiration from a guy who runs a site called emini watch. This indicator tries to mimic what he has done. It's not as good, but it does have some nice patterns. For those who don't know, TRIN analyzes advancing issues vs. declining issues. It is a breadth measurement popularized (created?) by Dick Arms. It is an excellent way to gauge market strength without using any price data. I figured I'd put my work up here and see if anyone gets an inspiration to make it better. It uses the Nasdaq and NYSE trin figures - -- takes a logarithmic reading of each and inverts it (since TRIN is normally upside down). These two numbers are averaged and smoothed with a 3 period exponential average. Then this average is cumulated (added to the previous reading). This number is then detrended (distance from a moving average taken). Lastly the linear regression slope of this detrended reading is taken. ***IMPORTANT**** to set up this chart you need 3 data streams. First is your symbol. Second is the NYSE TRIN : $trin Third is the Nasdaq TRIN: $trinq I am not an expert at reverse engineering, but I like this concept of analyzing breadth. Maybe I have over manipulated the numbers. This is a work in progress, and contributions from the board are appreciated. You may learn something from this guys site. He seems legit, sells his indicator for a reasonable price. Has good analysis of the market leading me to believe he is a trader first, programmer second. I think his site is eminiwatch.com, but you can google it if you're interested. WS WS BETTER TRIN.ELD

WW is perfect for day-trading range days. You just need one of these a day to make a living. Problem is being able to watch multiple markets for them. I trade 9 markets mechanically, so am periodically monitoring them all, but if you were just watching one, I imagine it would be like watching the paint dry. Mechanical trading gives you incredible peace of mind. If you keep spending the hours you will find something that works. Just remember that simple is better, and to stay away from any type of modify-able parameters. Today I am leaving my systems on and going surfing! later!

This one was easy to see early on, the #2 was dramatic, move from 4-5 quick and dramatic.

233 tick ES chart WW

yes bubba you identified a kind of fractal in the market currently. The problem with matching the current pattern as a wolfe wave is that if the 1-3 line is successfully broken, then you have a double bottom and an imminent move higher. That's why the 1-3 line should rise for a bearish pattern, opposite for bullish. There is more to it than that of course, but the case for the opposite scenario should always be considered. You asked how I trade this pattern earlier and I hadn't responded - am travelling.. I don't trade this pattern specifically. I am a mechanical system trader primarily but enjoy pattern trading. When I have the luxury of time and money on my side, I will likely trade market geometry. For the time being I trade my money and my client's money in a statistically proven manner (very little human emotional intervention). It works for me.

Maverick, can you give 3 reasons why you would pay someone you have never met $2000 (sorry $1999 - can't believe they still do that) for a product(?) that doesn't have any evidence that it is more than a good way to start a fire? I just can't believe it. "Those who can't, teach. Those who can't teach teach gym. " Thanks Woody. There are few teachers that will teach you a successful method. There are plenty that will teach you obscure concepts and take your money. Those people that make money would not advertise, they would not need your money either. I know, they say that they charge that much because they want to make sure you are committed. I don't buy it.

ES chart, 233 tick. Not an ideal one, but I just had to post it. The target was perfect. In a proper bear wave the #3 pt would be higher than the #1 point. It pays to pay attention to any false break, find where the destination might be, examine risk/reward. This one had it all, under VWAP with intraday downtrend intact.

I draw it manually (andrews' line). It takes an eye and getting used to, I don't think you can always have an accurate line when drawn mechanically. OAC, that is very true -rare - , but a good extra confirmation. Observing where/how the current Andrews' line passes through price is critical in its use - most people overlook that.

I was short NQ,ES,YM and ER2, also long the inverse ETF's and long bonds ETF. Exited most of the futures contracts early (except YM) and got caught up in some currency futures trades that sort of hurt, learned my lesson about that.. Here's another perspective... Andrews' - - Guarantee you there were a lot of traders with this line on their chart. (SPY 120 min chart). It seems like a self-fulfilling prophesy these days.

whooooo. man these days are crazy

nice. ES 3 min chart ahead of fed..

It's not bad, sparrow. The one red flag I see is that I would have liked to see the #4 point dip a little further. From your chart I think I would have liked to see the point #5 have some kind of resistance. It might be there when you zoom out, but I can't see it here - so personally the momentum at point #5 would have made me nervous. Although I did see divergence in the indicator you had up. It would have been best to take a conservative entry on this one (breakdown of the 2-4 line)..

Forgot to insert the chart....

Here's just a potential one (getting bored with this market)... in YM.D on a 466 tick chart just to illustrate how to keep an eye out for these. Firstly, the #2 point attempted a breakout, failed. Point #3 takes out point #1. Point #4 rises and attracts short sellers. Point #5 should shake out longs and give short sellers conviction. If this 4-5 move fails, the pattern dictates a move back to the 1-4 line. This is really early, point 4 hasn't even formed. You see this kind of thing all the time and the pattern doesn't play out properly.

Glad to have you here thrunner, and sparrow ideally we can put these up real time for evaluation some day. It is critical for the #5 pt to break or at least touch the 1-3 line. Another thing is that this pattern works best in congestion. The #5 pt is usually not a significant high/low. You are correct in identifying the geometry in this market, but it's not a proper wolfe wave. This brings up an important point. Pattern identification can be a little fuzzy, but certain rules have to exist. The reason I point this out is that it is too easy to "see what you want to see". Rules are there to increase objectivity as much as possible. That being said, no 2 patterns are alike - - so there will always be different interpretations. Keep 'em coming and we can pick them apart together.

Sparrow, it will help you if you start labeling your charts with the numbers of the points. The last one you posted was not a valid pattern as you represented it, or it might have been if we could have seen what you saw. I didn't see it. I have gotten lazy with marking the pts since it was just me and Tasuki here for a while.

That one in ES today is one of the most classic ones I've seen. The one in the pound was nice too.. but that one in ES was awesome. I especially enjoyed the quick movement from point 4 to 5, and how pt. #2 was just so obvious. I took a piece out of it, but can't say I would have held on throughout the whole move if I was trading just the pattern.

This on on the 233 tick of ES I had my doubts on - - still don't know if that target will be achieved, maybe in afterhours. The way this market is going, the pull back is going to be a gap and run the other way. The pattern worked better in ER2, though the target wasn't too great. ER2's leadership began to falter today, leads me to think this rally is likely done. Also, all of my systems are flashing sell signals today, confirming

I am using 8.3 I think actually....

Not hard to get the volume bars tasuki.. FOrmat symbol, select volume under interval, then the number of shares.. Isn't that what you want?

EWZ is the etf I tink

I have observed volatility to be one of the more predictable cycles in the market. How are you quantifying it?