waveslider

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Seen this? Good quant stuff, summarized to alleviate headaches

Hi here's something to fool around with. What it does is look at a time (or tick) window and take the mean of the highs and the mean of the lows. If the mean of the lows crosses above the mean of the highs, you have a trend. If nothing is plotting you have a range. Combine with multiple time frames and add a few rules and you've got a system! I submit this stuff so that others can get ideas and improve upon them. Synergy! Please feel free to improve or suggest... WSTRAILINGTREND.ELD

Nice! I hope you are trading this Bubba - - these have been some great patterns. I almost commented on the one you marked in progress. I'm working that same pattern. Great swinging market for Andrews pitchforks too

Froggy, I think pitchforks work better in futures markets. Why? Because they tend to swing more (trend less) and are volatile. Any market that seems to "swing" more than trend is a pitchfork market. In trending markets people use the pitchfork as a channel type tool. It seems to work alright, but I think drawing channels is just as effective. The pitchfork is designed to use market geometry to locate price targets. Trending markets will accelerate as trend matures, and this means that pitchfork will not work so well (unless you like bent pitchforks, maybe for farmers in San Fran.). In trending markets, fanning channel lines is the best. Just my 2 cents, hope that helps.

Either side of a gap is a VERY important point technically. This is often overlooked by the book writers... The opening side of a gap should be treated as the beginning of a new wave, since a new dynamic is being introduced into the market. It is commonly used to measure how far the move will continue in the direction of the gap.. glad that helped you tasuki. SPY is not easy to trade, I use it mostly to hedge, unless the market is really trending.

Here's one I've been trading, just completed. SPY 60 minute chart.

Killer day for trading pitchforks. Here's the SPY 3 min chart. There's even more on the tick charts - - - 1st pitchfork had VWAP as a confirmation target. 2nd pitchfork began at conservative 50% point.

Not sure if this is the same one because of the times on your chart, but i think I saw the same one bubba. This'll be an interesting experiment. This one has much more horizontal lines to it. I know everyone wants price to go down and test that area below from last week, especially with the gap down this a.m.

Here's one from friday. In my thinking, the trade was validated.entry was at the crossing of the yellow line. At each blue arrow there was further confirmation. The gold horizontal lines are pivot lows formed at price levels that were previously pivot highs in the preceding move downward. I was in the trade at the last arrow (in SPY) when price was breaking above that range. AP is very useful! Please post charts you see as valid so we can all benefit from the failures as well as the successes.

Hi Swingscalp, welcome to the forums, you too psyogi - For your questions - - 1. Andrew's forks happen everywhere, and if you can't see one in market you are looking out, if you zoom out a couple of time frames you'll see it. The times that they don't work are in an accelerating trending market. Markets that are trending strongly don't swing so much, so price won't often reach the andrews target. Are they a self fulfilling prophesy? Probably, particularly on the smaller time frames. I think there are plenty of pros using AP and trendlines/channels exclusively. 2. AP sets up all the time, at least once a day in ES I'd say on the lower timeframes. As you train your eyes by applying it, you'll see. PSyogi - - In that chart I just posted it was a different pattern than AP, called a wolfe wave. Tasuki and I go on yakking about that on another thread. WW are more subjective and require a deeper level of understanding of market geometry. I've been actively playing this particular pattern, it's working out pretty well.

Yeah! nicely put. For me I have to quantify as much as possible to see things objectively. If you can test your ideas and quantify them, then in the back of your head you know that there is an advantage to following your rules. Then it's simple. Take small loses when you're wrong. Know where you will exit profits. Personally I don't believe there are too many out there that can just "trust intuition" and make money consistently. Why? Because your intuition/gut feeling is not consistent! As humans our moods are affected by such a variety of factors, how can you trust that? I have to quantify and then follow the rules. Then just make tons of donuts.

Tasuki, FWIW, I think this is trying to force square pegs in round holes. Why? Because the pitchfork isn't appropriate in all market environments, as some one here said - when it works, it works. In the case you put up, just using a simple parallel channel would have worked just as well. Maybe its good to have that confirmation... The channels seem to work best when pitchfork isn't. By the way, nice WW going in ES right now - - a larger one with some room to move?

They look the same to me.. I have no idea.. The reason I have used this feature in the past is with the "tick countdown indicator" (it has to be set to tick volume). So maybe its just what the indicators you use reference intrabar.

hey tasuki, I don't know if you are aware of this but there is a setting I just found under format symbol that asks whether you would like to you trade volume or tick count for tick volume. Just thought I'd pass that along

I hate to say it, but for me, consistency is establishing the discipline to keep records. I hate keeping records. Keeping records leads to consistency because those records will point out in black and white when something is out of the ordinary.

You need to know how long your average losing trade lasts. This indicator calculates risk per day then sizes your position accordingly based on average true range. I like to scale into positions so I have it entering positions a third (approximately) at a time. Can't post ELD at the moment for some reason. inputs: ATRLength( 14 ),risksize(1200), maxpositionsize(50000),avgtradelen(3.5) ; value2=risksize/((AvgTrueRange( ATRLength )*avgtradelen)); if (value2*close)>maxpositionsize then value2= maxpositionsize/close; value1=value2*3; Plot1(value1*.31, "Init" ) ; Plot2(value1*.33, "2nd" ) ; plot3 (value1*.36, "3rd"); WS POSITION SIZER.ELD

Beautiful day for forking! Here's a 699 tick chart of ES I liked how the target came in here below VWAP and right at the 3 bar indicator (found elsewhere on these forums). Great gap and run day from a temporarily overbought market.

I think you're right about where to start, in general I've found that a good place to begin a trendline or pitchfork is at a place where momentum begins a new wave. So not necessarily where price peaks/troughs, but where the actual momentum begins, if that makes sense. Placement should coincide with an area of low volatility, because that's a place where price has settled a bit and a new trend can initialize. NIce chart you posted.

Sorry dude - - - > You just don't have much credibility (activity on the board), and this wouldn't be the first time this has happened (people inventing characters who have conversations). The guys who do this get booted quick - thanks to the killer moderators!! Can you tell us a little about the technique they use, and why it is different /better?

I love pitchforks personally. Agree that with a strongly trending market they're not the best - just like the wolfe wave. I think people mis-use them a lot. Its all about where to start the fork. Has to be where the previous trend accelerated, I like at the 50% line. You have to have some good rules to go along with it to validate the fork and confirm. If you just take a trade in the area of confirmation, it's pretty good chances of nailing targets... I look forward to your thread, Tasuki... PS here's a fork with an interesting twist. The lower tine lines up with a WW target.

Hey Thrunner, OAC - - OAC has a great point about the lines being horizontal - -the pattern should occur in a real sideways range. OAC, I like your avatar shot. - have you ever been surfing? Thrunner - - OAC is right about the ETA component, it is very faulty - not really worth watching in my opinion. Right of you to notice that when WWs aren't working, there is a strong trend intact and the mini-rallies that never reach targets are just providing fuel for a further move in the trend direction.

to make it more sensitive, you could always take the time frame a notch lower..

Hi David. I'm glad you are finding good use for this. Regarding your question - -3 is a pretty key number here to use in identifying the important pivots. There needs to be adequate indication of strength, I think you need at least 3 consecutive bars. Sounds like you are using it as an exit stop. Personally I wouldn't use it as a trailing stop because it doesn't actually trail. Try using a parabolic or volatility stop instead. I tested the 3 bar and it works best as an entry point at the beginning of a new trend. You enter once the level is broken and tested from the opposite side. Kind of like Walter's flip trade he talks about.

Yes I see that too. What I think a lot of people are looking at is the gap down on 1/04. Gap analysis has been around for a long time and people look for the gap location to mark the 50% point of a move. If you measure it out we are about there now. This gap location is the current balance pt of the market. The risk reward is skewed to the upside currently, in my opinion... Hey that was a nice intraday one you noticed, bubba! Were you able to get a trade out on it?

It's a good question bubba. This is still a high risk entry that hasn't confirmed a higher movement. I am following a system that buys weakness, it will exit relatively quickly on strength here based on the daily time frame. In the past I have had over 75% profitable trades using this methodology. As far as trading off the wolfe wave, I would wait for an impulse move higher and then pullback. Looking at the S&P 100 (OEX) it looks a little more like a descending channel. I will look to take some off at this Andrew's line >> >