waveslider

Hi Bert, 1. point 1 is harder to locate, look first for point #2. It should be dramatic, sharp, with volume. There should be traders getting shook out. 2. point 1 is within the range, usually around the 50% level. Not necessarily the beginning of the range, but at a point where volatility begins to expand. Yes the trend on the higher time frame dominates (if there is one) 3. You are correct. There are some web sites out there that detail this stuff, some are more accurate than others. You will only start getting this from seeing them real time and making note. You really juiced this thread - as you noticed, there was no structure, it just kind of rambles forward. I am not an instructor, nor do I have time or energy to put together what you are asking..sorry! But I am glad you have learned a bit. There is a bit of work to learning market geometry, but it is valuable knowledge..

Hey folks, some of you may know about this method, if not I'm introducing it to spark some conversation. This is a simple timing method introduced by I don't know, but there are a few who have written about it. Its not really a mainstream method, but some smart technicians do use it religiously. It is an excellent tool for swing trading, but I will warn here, this is one of the technical analysis "arts" that require interpretation. Some visual people will get it, some won't. Here goes: 1. Start at the beginning of a trend. So when pivots are forming lower lows or higher highs. 2. To find a peak high, take the two recent pivot lows, match the length of the line to the peak between. 3. A bullish pattern should have the peak between the lows shifted to the right. A bearish pattern should have the trough between highs shifted to the right. 4. The reversal should occur within 2 bars (a bar before, a bar after). This is where momentum will likely shift. Movement further is usually on divergent momentum to fake out before a move. 5. If a low forms in the place where a high should form, the wavelengths are lengthening, and so will the amplitude. This is the location of an "inverse" where price will travel another equal length (50%) higher. Here are some examples on the chart of ES.D. All lines of the same color are equal angle and equal length. a. Yellow lines initiated when first higher high pivot formed. I use 4 bar pivots. b. Peak is off by one day, but momentum has shifted. The next day is the shakeout day. c. Red lines are drawn and reversal is one day later (a pattern?). d. Cyan lines are drawn and the day after peak time is reached, price forms a pivot low. In real time this is going to be hard to read, but since there was a pivot high 2 days earlier, this is looking like an inverse, and possibly the halfway point in a pattern. e. Green lines are formed and this pivot comes in a day later once again. Currently price has risen 7 days in a row, so it is likely to pullback, but there is no reversal projected. There will likely be a small reversal (staying above point e.) or a sideways movement. Should price take out point e. then a new downtrend is technically beginning, and we start the process all over again. I do not recommend trying to pick tops and bottoms with this tool, you will get burned. If timing was that easy, computers would blow the edge out. Maybe they already did. Either way, use it as a tool to see more deeply into the markets. It is not always easy, but these patterns form more frequently than you'd expect. There is more to learn from this method, but I am just presenting it to spark some conversations. Maybe use this method and can explain some nuances. ws

Looks like a good one mkp. It'll take a while to play out, but should be a good study. WWs are usually best within a range, and there could be a case for callling this trend, still that's a good target..

I like this finvz.com, but I don't know if they do gaps. Check stockfetcher, they do everything for cheap.

DAvid, from a strictly technical point, you are probably right. Everyone already used pivot points to find fib. entrances, gartley, triangles, etc. etc. The search for the holy grail goes on, eh? Meanwhile as we know, chart reading is an art, not a science. It's in the eye of the beholder. Is ww the one pattern to trade? no, I don't think so. I don't trade it, but I trade maybe 5% discretionary.. The idea here David is that there is geometry in the markets based on psychology. WW is just one pattern, and like triangles/wedges/head and shoulders, if it is coded with the proper money management it might be mildly profitable. If you are able to "see" what is going on under the pattern and trade it discretionarily, then you could kill with patterns like this. As OAC said, it's all about the context, and unfortunately our computers can't see patterns the same way a human does. I can't say I have the time to search out these patterns, and I don't like to trade what I can't quantify. So for me WW is just fun to watch. You'd be amazed how many do work!

brownsfan these questions you have are related to entries and exits as a part of a system - that would be a different discussion altogether. Breadth can be used to see underlying strength or weakness, but don't expect price to react to them immediately! Manipulations and stop running usually will supersede on the shorter time frame.

I use a moving average of the russell cumulative tick ($tikrlc in TS), since it encompasses more stocks, and small cap stocks are usually a good barometer of strength/weakness in the market. I also have been watching $VOLRLDC which is advancing minus declining volume in the russell. The russell cumulative tick gave a great early warning signal today. I take a moving average of it. On the daily chart the trin and trinq are very helpful yeehaa..

Opinions please?! Here is a potential fork forming in the ES on the daily chart. The highlighted areas are spots I consider important failures or supports related to this particular fork. Its good to have multiple confirmations. There are other reasons to be bearish here, the market breadth and volume are just horrible. The S&P has just failed at a major trendline (white on the chart, can't see the beginning on this chart). Also price filled in the gap from January 15, which is a huge break even point for a lot of people who got slaughtered then. All these bearish things could be considered bullish! Anyway - - there will likely be a good message in the market tomorrow, as I feel people are watching this fork, especially when price forms a doji...

dominant wave is just the largest wave in action in the pattern. Trying to pick tops and bottoms is a tough disease, I get infected too - - its got to be a psychological thing about wanting to prove how smart you are. Entry points? Personally I think just about anything will work, but the risk management has to be tight, that's the most important thing. The one you pointed out just played out this a.m., bubba. Nailed it to the cent. I think that channel was additional pressure as I mentioned. Also interesting that both points 2 and 5 happened within the range, at the extremes. Probably reinforced the pattern. I haven't looked at the volume of it, but maybe there's something there too..

Hey Bubba that one you posted is working out fine, looks like it will hit target tomorrow morning. Wouldn't be surprised if that was the end of the up move though, there is quite a bit of resistance building above, not to mention the parallel channel line (parallel to your 1-3 line). dunzmatr: scale shouldn't matter too much unless you are looking at higher timeframes. Bert: welcome. bill wolfe's course is of course over priced. I have heard that there are a few nuances from people who have paid. I doubt it's worth it. No system will replace the hard learned lessons of actual trading and learning money management. They're fun to try and find though!

oh, hi bubba, looks like we were posting at the same time, I was referring to thrunner's post

Picture perfect example... thanks. How do you come up with your timing (vertical) lines?

this looks like a decent one, see if it plays out tomorrow. ES 2 minute chart..

That picture didn't come out very well, sorry I am a little busy today maybe I can update it later - - the fork has a yellow median line and magenta tines, its there though hard to see.

Januson- FWIW here is my pitchfork analysis for SPY, along with some channel and cycle stuff. There is a lot of chart art here, but what to notice are the circles which highlight the validity of this particular pitchfork. The median line has acted as support once so should it be met again it will likely act as resistance. The retracement line (from the Oct. high to Mar. low) also acts as support and resistance. There is still time for this counter trend up move to complete. This particular chart shows a target about 3.5% higher than today's close. Tagging the 50% line of the down move and the upper channel line with a failed gap up sure is an attractive short. Everyone sees this, so if it should go the other way (up) it would spark a nice fast rally...

bubba, tasuki, check this out -- - http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=210&s=ta_p_wedgeup someone posted this link here on TL, whoever did, thanks!!

Yeah volume and breadth are super weak too. Any way you look at it, that top yellow line you've got will play into this market importantly, its been touched 4 times. It wouldn't be surprising to see this pattern actually work out.. Here price just closed the critical gap down from January 14 where EVERYBODY who holds positions over night got slammed. I bet it doesn't happen till monday or tuesday. If friday turns out to be a small range doji type day, get ready..!

Newer release is evidently problematic, but I think your issue is sim-related, Tasuki.. I use OCO orders real time all day and they work as they should.. TS is as good as any unless you require something intricate.

mininova, it is good.

Oh yeah something someone mentioned (I think OAC) earlier.. Wolfe waves seem to work best when the pattern is moving mostly sideways. So your lines (except 1-4) should be pretty horizontal. That's important to keep in mind, because the market can and will accelerate at point 5, or just chop there

thrunner - - what do the dark red lines mean in your post? I would bet that the target you found turned out to be the halfway point of a larger move higher..? I see you are using the better volume indicator. That guy (Barry) has come up with some good ideas.

Duznmatr: This is something you are going to get a feel for, it is an art and not a science as you've probably heard. Remember that what you are getting into is market structure based on geometry. Additionally there are multiple cycles on higher and lower timeframes that can and will override anything you see on the timeframe you see the pattern on. That being said, pt. #1 should be within the range, and be near the beginning of where the range began. Personally (you can see the charts I posted in this thread) I like to have pt #1 occur at a 50% level (a balance point in the market). Further action tends to swing off of this level, and the wolfe wave occurs when it swings too far. hope that helped

Hi Froggy, I guess I should have been more specific also!! I meant specifically the e-mini futures (I am most familiar with them though I watch FOREX a lot). The e-mini contracts have huge amounts of volume intraday and are used extensively by larger players as a hedging vehicle. There is a ton of swing in these e-mini contracts, particularly the S&P e-mini which does have a tendency toward mean reversion than the others. If you are just getting started, I recommend trading ONE emini contract until you can afford to trade TWO based on your EARNINGS. Sorry for the capitals, but its VERY easy to blow out an account in these markets because of their leverage and quick moves. You may find a better futures market for pitchfork. What is remarkable about the S&P emini is the fact that it is used as a hedging vehicle, big players are not necessarily participating in it "naked" (without a corresponding hedged position). So when and where they decide to buy back a short position may not be "logical", but instead based on their model. For this reason (volatility) I see it as an exceptional market to find swings in.. Post some charts of how you are applying the pitchfork when you get time and we can see how your thinking is developing.

Yes you are on the right track. Look over some of the previous posts, didn't realize we were up to 24 pages- yow. Basically you are correct. 5 and 2 are where to watch for big volume.

No, I meant futures... Forex will trend more while futures tend to swing. I believe channels work best for trending markets because you can accelerate them.