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heretodaygone...
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Everything posted by heretodaygone...
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The Price / Volume Relationship
heretodaygone... replied to Spydertrader's topic in Technical Analysis
please delete........ -
:spam:.....................................:crap:
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This should make you think about the possibilities...
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That's pretty harsh coming from someone who has been calling the top since last April.(ES - 879, wasn't it?) Prolly going to be right this April. You should start a thread. lol
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ummm apparently :doh:
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They are just zones where I believe initiated buying or selling happened. These areas are not always at the highs and lows. I don't use a footprint chart, I can kinda of just see it in price.
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I like to use 5 levels for the day: unfair high - 1421 vah - 1418 poc - 1415 val - 1412 unfair low - 1409 these extra levels alert me to look for strength or weakness of pv a little earlier.
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Creating a RSS Feeder for News
heretodaygone... replied to brownsfan019's topic in Market News & Analysis
not sure if this is what your looking for but, https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/4632 -
Hlm, what software do you use that you can split vpoc and vvah /vval at swing points? I trade somewhat similar but a little more crudely I suppose. Because es opened above Fridays vah(1423.25) and held it then became todays val. That would make Friday's vpoc(1420.75) an unfair low.1424.25 becomes as you said the vpoc and 1429.25 becomes the vah. Also 1436.75 is now an unfair high.Thats how tomorrow setups for me.
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here's a link to the cbot's market profile handbook for those who are interested. http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1184,00.html
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I found this profile from Steidlmayer and thought it applied to value building in previous sd3's.It is my opinion that longer term trades in this value area is a trap,. As always, time will tell...
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btw...didn't mean to ignore your post, but, does the fact that value is being built in the weekly profile change your outlook or more importantly trade location?
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gassah, what does wycoff say about up gaps, which are for the most part achieved on light volume as you chart indicates? Does "W" talk about 'other time frame buyers'? Could it be possible that an 'other time frame buyer' saw value and bought overnight(which caused the gap) and then "finished his buying" into the opening where the buyer knew supply would be? Does the fact that the 'buyer finished' give the illusion of mass supply or mass demand? How does 'W' view price going to where the "size" is? just wondering....thanks
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'Markets In Profile': Detailed Book Review
heretodaygone... replied to Frank's topic in Market Profile
Frank, can you explain why you chose the 40 sma? I've reread post 19 and I think you use it to approximate vwap but I just want to make sure. Thanks for the great thread. -
Thanks for offering gassah. I would like to see if and when excess areas(3sd's) become future value area's if that makes sense.
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The way I view the market is that price will continually test where value is.As traders, determining value and or value excesses are is imo key to trade placement.Here's my view:
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I was studying gassah's charts and a question that I had was "why did he choose the july swing high to start his profile?" From this question, I started messing around with volume profiles from different timeframes and here's the results...unfortunately, these charts aren't very visually appealing but I think they may intrigue some who read this thread.The charts are of ES - 1st chart is from the oct.2002 lows with a PVP(peak volume price) at around 1270 - 2nd chart is from the oct 2006 breakout with a PVP of around 1450 - 3rd chart is from the oct 2007 high till present with a PVP of 1370
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I was reading through some excellent threads on market statistics by jperl and came across this post - http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/trading-with-market-statistics-v-other-2130.html#post15193 My thinking on it is that if you have a normal volume distribution where the vpoc or pvp as jperl calls it is in the center of the vah/val (not skewed) then gassah's 3rd standard deviation reversal trade would be high probability. But, if the volume distribution is off centered(skewed), the probability of reversal goes down. In fact the probability of continuation goes up. any thoughts?
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That's how I view it. If one can understand the opening in relation to the previous day(s) volume range(s), then use bar to bar p/v, vsa, s/d ,vwap or whatever, high probabilty trades with manageable risk are assured. Understanding the relationship of horizontal volume and vertical volume is key.
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the question wasn't meant for you per say...gassah chart has me thinking. I thought you might have run across this before. thanks
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so, as you can see friday shows a symetrical distribution which then an easily definable standard deviation(range extension ) can be calculated. BUT, Wednesday and Thursday had asymetrical distributions. So the question remains, how does one logically determine standard deviation(range extension ) ?
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arghh,you've been doing this too long:)...go with the flow. Here's a mp chart to show what I mean.
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actually a lot of times they are not which gives the trader asymetrical opportunities(thats a good thing:))...thus the question I asked. It may be significant to let a trade run more if one knew where to calculate from...very interesting.
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I don't know if I am asking this question correctly, but, if 68% is the center portion of the bell curve and the POC doesn't necessarily have to be at 68%, then how would (could) one calculate range extension(standard deviation)? Is it calculated from the bell curve median or the POC?
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thanks anyway...good stuff