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goodoboy
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Everything posted by goodoboy
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Thanks Steve, Good example and analysis. I like how you state the "odds" (or probability) favor a reversal as sometimes when I see certain setups like this spike, I usually think in terms of "expect", but I gotta remember is a probability/odd business and we have to put odds in our favor.
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Good job as usual Steve and your system is working fine for you. Thanks for sharing, I only had a few trades this week (had to work extra hours at the job), but I did spend alot of hours during the week just watching price action during the week. The distributions lines work well. And the key is making decisions at the lines and staying out of the middle of the choppy business. I spend the last few weeks just watching, practicing, taking notes, and writing plan. Pretty simple. Keep me updated on the distributions lines as I follow this thread daily. Would hate to see it close.
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Thanks Steve, make sense now. Happy Trading Today!
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Thank you Steve, Just to be clear, the retest failure occurs when the green candle (on the second arrow), fails to closed above 1450? Or does the retest failure occurs when the next red candle open and close below the 1450? Sorry, if the question is to micro! This is good example as short could be taken 9 minutes later when there is an open and closed above 1450 as well. Thanks,
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Thanks Steve, I haven't time tonight to review your last three posts but I will in the morning. I have a silly cold and had some other stuff to do. But appreciate the sharing and updates on the system.
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Thanks Steve, This 1456 level has provided good resistance and support today. I watched it today. Its actually holding right now.
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Hello Steve, Thanks for sharing. A few questions regarding the short entry: 1. On the ES chart, price never got to the distributions line of 1456.50, yet short was still taken on the first red arrow. Any reason for that? 2. The second short, is nice, but I would have taken short at 1454.50 on retest of failure hold this line. Why take short at 1455.50? 3. Good job on DAX trade, played out well. Thanks for the help.
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Thanks, Market behavior is slow as it was yesterday. But still good trading to be done is this narrow range if considering the extreme ranges 1355 to 1349. I am just watching for now. I am hoping for a market pull back. Then I will consider longs some stocks up until end of year.
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Thanks for sharing Steve. Very nice setup and trade.
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Thanks Steve, Take your time with respond to the question. You can even respond later in the week. No rush at all. Thanks,
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Thank you Steve, Just to be clear, on the chart you just show, price is right at the line, 1456.50, but the red arrow is at about at 1461ish. So, this red arrow indicates short if price action failed to break this level. What happens if price action gets to 1450 and holds? Can trader go long at this level or does the red logic arrow still indicates short? I think this goes back to being patient and choosing the levels at extremes (1461 and 1432ish midpoint) to trade. I hope I am making sense.
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Thank you for sharing your profile and analysis.
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Hello Db, Thanks for sharing. I notice on the last two trades the exit (blue dots) was before the stop loss (white circle) was touched. Any reason for not placing stop loss below the support? Was the exit taken because of failure to breakout above resistance? Thank you,
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2. You have to have a reasonable stop in place and you have to be willing to honor it....take a loss when your wrong and move on...that stoploss has to be (in my opinion) big enough to give your mathematical edge time to kick in...I estimate my stoploss based on local volatility...and it seems to work pretty well...some folks like to simply look for the most recent high and low....and thats fine if you can afford it... You are right about that. Three times today, I moved my stop loss to break even or just exit trade, next the price turn the way I wanted it to initially. Frustrating day! And clearly in my Trade Management plan, I have to not move stop loss cause I place it in a spot that accounts for if I am wrong and market wants to go the other way. So that's my fault, walk away today with -1pt loss. hahahhaahha. lesson learn.
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It helps Steve and its a start to the hesitation part!
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Thanks Steve, One way I have been watching over the past week is wait for price to open and close outside the line (line meaning any S or R that occurs), waiting for a retest of this line. For example for short entry: After price open and close below support, I am looking for price to retest line and either close above the line or below it. If price test the line and close below or at the line, I will wait for the next candle to make decision. If next candle does not close above line, I enter short. If on retest price close above line, I continue to wait for price to break of line and repeat process. For example long entry: I look for longs after price reverse from a support area and begin defining a small range where buyers and sellers decide to take price higher or lower. If price breaks the range and open and close above this range, this is my signal for entry long. If price goes below this small range, I go back to short entry steps above. So far this has kept me on the right side of either direction. So, to avoid second guessing my entry and then breakeven, and the price turns in my favor, I will try this way when I am watching. I know there is no way to be exact perfect, but its best to try it out.
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Hello, I think the answer to my question is "yes", but I just want to be sure. It may sound silly too. For the past 5 months, I took a break from buying stocks. I normally (well try to) swing trade stocks that I believe have decent fundamentals. Well, lately I been studying, learning, and practicing intra day trading the ES via price action Wycoff method. Can I use this same method price action as I do with intraday trading ES with swing trading stocks that I like? I was thinking to use daily chart to for these stocks. I know Wycoff traded stocks, but I believe he day traded stocks. I was looking more long term, or atleast until the trend of this stocks stops. Hope I am making sense. Thank you
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market is going up. Well, I missed the first move, so just waiting and watching. Thanks Fed for QE3.
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Thank you Steve, Are these lines for the Dec or Sep contracts? I am assuming the Sep contracts.
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Steve, What is consider longer time frame participants. Investors that hold more than a day?
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Thanks Steve, On the logic entry process, do you consider entry when candle open and close above or below the distribution line? The last few days, I have watching for candle open and close above or below the support or resistance (and your distributions lines), but what I do is wait for a retrace back to the line and then another candle open and close above or below the line. I hope that make sense. But looking your chart, there was no retrace on that short dis morning! I would have missed it.I think some record keeping or the success of entry is required to determine which entry process is better.
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Out of ES with 2.25 pts. That 1433 is showing some good support here.
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short 1435.50 target 1433.25 The supports areas are close to each other. But price action making lower highs, so interesting to see what happens at 1433 from that low this morning.
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There will be more chances. I will hang in with this ES and go to work it.
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I felt the same way earlier, but i was still watching just to see what happens next. So, I be that way sometimes.