NoTouch,
I agree with you on the first part of your post that 85% is baseless. Perhaps if one gauged all markets the percentage of 'professional money' would be close to that figure, who knows. Who is to say that 'smart money' consists of those working for some big firm with an exchange seat or those with billions in capital. Couldn't smart money consist of members of the public who are informed & educated, including some on this forum, as opposed to those who blindly bet on the markets? Maybe that would bring that figure up even higher.
As for the latter part of your post..."What is even more interesting is the breakdown between buy volume and sell volume. It's interesting because there was almost an identical number of buyers and sellers in each group. Looking at the locals (Cti1) there were 182,292 buyers and 180,705 sellers. For the commercial clearing members there were 507,547 buyers and 515,787 sellers. For the public (Cti4) there were 351,724 buyers and 344,938 sellers. So this idea of the "Professional Money" always being right and the public always being wrong is nonsense. There were winners and losers in every group."...these figures show only volume. Not where the 'smart money' or the public bought or sold at. If I had to venture a guess I'd probably say the percentage of 'smart money' selling near the top/buying near the bottom was greater than for the public in general.
Moderators, no offense but I think this thread has veered from its intended subject of VSA. Maybe the matter could be continued in a separate thread?
Thanks.