Wolfhound

Having reviewed the last week, and the posts by others I can see that to get this to the next level, I need to strike a balance between respecting the continuous nature of price, to allow for better entries on smaller timeframes, and to avoid overtrading by limiting the trades to the areas with higher probability of sucess, such as the areas identified in the market preview, and also whatever new highs, lows, congestion etc. that are determined by price in real time. Good luck to all you traders this week.

I didn't do much today. We kept within yesterday's limits, and I only made 2 failed shorts. Maybe too conservative. I will review the week over the weekend from a distance to see if I am trading safe, or trading scared. 1. We opened by breaking out of our overnight range and moving up to test yesterday's highs at 60, where the price turned very quickly. 2. The price is overlapping a lot and doesn't suit the relatively tight stops that I need to make this work. No entries so far on the retracements. 3. We broke out of the bottom of the overnight range, and I was waiting for a short after the retracement. This was a dog that didn't want to leave its kennel. 4. Another test of 60, and another hold. This time we didn't reverse, but moved sideways. After we moved through the demand line I put a short on which initially loked like it was moving, but stopped out soon after. 5. Another short from a retracement that failed quickly. After this we hung around below the highs for the rest of the time with no great trades available.

Good idea. It will defintely capture the big trends when they happen. Nothing worse than closing a trade early for 5 pts, when 50 pts are made at the end of the trend.

We continued our rise yesterday and are not far below the next highs at 69. A move above this leads us to the next potential resistance at 700 and above. But we have made large gains this week, and may be due a retracement. Our main congestion starts at about 24 if we get through more recent congestion. Yesterday ranged from 31 up to 60, with a midpoint at 46. Before the close we moved back to 48 and have not passed that point again during the night in spite of several tests. I will watch for the action if price breaks below this point. We reached a high of 55 in the early morning, and have fallen off since then. The range is fairly tight, so we should see a break not long after the open. As always we wait for the market to tell us which way it wants to go.

Okay day today. I missed the trade back into the range after the open, but the rest of the day was good. I tried to keep to mainly SLA entries, although we had reversal options at the extremes of the range. 1. At the open we stayed within our tight morning range of 34 to 40. we eventually moved to the upper side of the range, before breaking out above 40. 2. The first retracement is near to the overnight highs, but I placed a short and let price decide where it wants to go. After reaching 48, it fell back and broke the demand line triggering the exit. 3. We had a retracement soon after for a short, which made a steady move to the overnight lows, before turning and exiting. A good, by the rules SLA trade. 4. After the retracementI entered a long which failed after a few minutes. I knew that we were beside the 50% point and having touble getting through before I placed the trade. An earlier retracement before the 50% would have been preferable, but I will take what appears. After this is i didn't make any entries. We were close to the mean for a long while even though we were moving slowly upwards. It was 11am before the highs were broken, and there was not follow through from there.

We have moved above the highs of 24 yesterday and the next highs would be at 58 and 69. We have retraced over 70% of the fall that we had in March and April now which should keep buyers happy, and may suck in the hopeful herd, looking to join the party. Overnight we made it as far as 45 before faling, and we are currently in a range between 34 and 40. Any support below will probably start to affect price when it gets near the previous highs of 24.

Today the aim was to be calm, although I never aim to be stressed. We did test the previous highs of 624, but could not make a move past at the time of writing. We have stayed in a relatively tight area since we first tested 24 before 10am. I only marked 2 trades today, and I am pleased that I didn't try to drive down in the road to nowhere today. 1. Opened with a rejection of the midpoint at 604, followed by a supply line break and retracement. I guess I could go long around 609, but trying to give the price a bit of time to make its range today. 2. We made it easily through the overnight high, before turning when we got back into yesterday's congestion. We have a retracement for a potential long that I would not take today, because the bars are wide, and it is easy to be stopped out here. 3. This indescision should be sorted out soon. I have a feeling for up since we can't get back into our overnight range below 611. But we are still overlapping bars at this stage. 4. We have a retracement here for the first long after the early morning volatility. We have highs around 624 to watch for. 5. We turned at the highs breaking our demand line. By my SLA, I would put a short on the 15:01 bar, which was stopped out on the next bar. Time to sit and watch for something clearer. I could have waited for the demand line from the open to be broken, but I felt it was a valid trade off the tighter demand line, with a rejection of the highs, and would probably do the same again. 6. I'm looking at this and seeing traders getting into a very tight range. In real time its like everyone has gone to the bathroom at the same time. There should be a breakout when they get back. Wash your hands guys. 7. Back to test 24 again. Eventually we made it past and up to 27, only to turn back again. I am waiting for a breakout with retracement, but that may not happen at this time of day. 8. Back below 24. No direction apparent yet.

Wedensday 21st May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview After the morning hinge yesterday we tested the highs at 624, and failed, falling to 584 before recovering some of the fall before the close. Overnight we have settled close to the midpoint of the high and low of yesterdays action (604), and have no direction yet for the open. Overnight we have been heading up but have halted and made a lower high after reaching the congestion from yesterday. Time to try and trade again, with the SLA to guide me.

Tuesday 20th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review Today for a long while we revolved around a mean of about 607 which was our overnight low. I tried a few trades which didn't work out, and I eventually noticed that a basic day of plotting the lines and using SLA would have worked out better today. Need to get the balance right. Overall I'm not unhappy with today. I didn't fire out trades like crazy, and stops were reasonable to keep the losses small. As always I will hopefully learn from it and try to improve tomorrow. 1. We opened at the lower end of our overnight range after a fall from a high of around 18 over the previous hour. This led me to expect a test of the lows, but instead we opened up to reject previous swing high and the 50% point at 14. I could short this, but I had decided to wait for a possible break of the overnight highs/lows and retracement. Generally would not take that trade, so I don't feel that I missed out. 2. We broke the overnight lows, but instead of a retracement and short, we have a reversal at the lows back into the range. I could have put a long on here for a possible run to the mean. This would have been stopped for more or less breakeven, since it turned so quickly at 613. Sometimes these trades work well . 3. The lower high is followed by a retracement. Again a short could be put on here. Maybe today I am a little hesitant. I will wait for the break below 607. 4. Here we have a break below 607 with a retracement that goes back above 607 but can't hold on. I put a short on here at 605.75. I am happy with the reasons for the entry, but the price returned to the entry point after a few minutes of not getting past the recent swing lows, so was exited for breakeven. 5. Another retracement for a short at 603. I left the stop at 604 this time since we had past the previous swing lows. Unfortunately stopped out after a 7 minutes. The supply line is also broken. The double or treble bottom could be a point of exit, or the break of the swing high. The overlap appears to be swallowing my trades today. 6. Here we had a retracement for a long after the supply line break. However it seemed to me that the trade was failing to go up and we may be having a DTDB. Obviously there is long somewhere around 605 at 10:11 (the 15:11 bar on my chart) but I didn't take it. I should focus on what I know and not think about trading the dogs until I know them better. 7. After a hinge around the mean of 607, I entered a long on a retracement from a breakout. This was stopped soon enough. An SLA trade could have been taken earlier.

Yes, no fun today. Just watching price revolve around the mean

Tuesday 20th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review Long term we are well above the big daily hinge midpoint, and are close to testing recent swing highs. Price rose yesterday, but couldn't quite break the previous highs at 624. We did make it to 621 overnight, but we could not hold that level for more than a than 20 minutes or so. Since then we have tested the low mark of 607, which has held as a low since yesterday afternoon. A breakout below 607 may see a large fall, because we have held above that level for many hours which will be noted by traders. A break above the overnight highs may test the recent swing high of 624. If we pass this we have a good distance to travel to the next big highs.

Monday 19th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review This week I will try to improve the review to include what I am doing right and wrong in each trade, and where I can improve for the next days. Today we had a move from 570 up to 600 in the morning, but I could not capture much of it. Reasonably happy with my trading today. Scratches saved me from mistakes and trades that didn't work out. 1. Just before the open we had a rejection of our morning highs at 78. I would not normally enter a trade just before the open, but it is possible to short of the rejection. I would be wary of a sudden fast move on the open moving way beyond any stop loss that I would set. But these valid trades before the open are something that I should watch for in future, even if I don't take them. 2. We had a retracement for a long here. I put a long on even though we were approaching the overnight highs above 590, and could have a quick failure. As always support and resistance is only there when it happens, and not because we draw a line on the chart. 3. The demand line from the lows was very steep and tight. I realised then that I was undecided in where to exit. It seemed to hasty to exit directly on such a steep break, because I have been trying to avoid exiting too quickly since last week. I waited until we had a lower high along with the line break, which really is the place to go short, but I was thinking about my exit first of all. Exit descisions need to be made in advance. 4. There was no big drop, instead price started making a tight range for a number of minutes below the overnight highs, before attempting to break above the overnight highs again, and failing. 5. After we broke below the congestion we had a retracement for a short which is stopped out quickly. Better to be stopped out quickly than stopped out for a large amount. Should I take that trade, when we are moving back to the mean of the opening range? Maybe not. 6. Supply line break with retracement that held above the overnight highs. Entered long here. The 600 mark proves difficult to get past again. I left my stop just below the supply line from the open, and it eventually triggered at 96. 7. We got a retracement after the demand line break, but traders put the price into a very tight 2 point range for 8 minutes, so I would not go short from a break down of this until we have another retracement. 8. Entered a long at 604, which was stopped out in a few minutes. I think this trade was an error even if it had worked. The retracement was a right tick one, which I have not used much. When I stand back from it, it looks like an attempt to get a trade on when none is available. I need to remove these, even on the occasions that they workout by accident. Re 7 & 8. You'll note that price did not fall in spite of the ret after the DL brk. This is a Dog. Therefore, you could have gone long at 98.5 off that little ret just below your "7". Thanks Db. I really have to spot these Dogs quicker. Another thing for my improvement list. ( Dave ) 9. We have held above 600 for more than 15 minutes. This looks like potential strength for a move upwards. 10. Long at 605.25 on the retracement from the breakout of our congestion. Not expecting anything of this trade, given that we are now after 11am. This one moved up straight away. As always we can never tell which trade is going to work, just have to take them as they appear.

Monday 19th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review We had a giant hinge on friday that only broke out in the evening. Another test for our abilities. Hopefully this week will have a few easier days for those who are trading real cash. We are still close to the mean of the long term daily hinge. The break upwards of last week could not hold past the highs around 618, and we returned to the mean. We are getting into a tight area now and traders will most likely make a descision soon on going up or down. Got to be ready for it this week if it happens. Overnight we started with a high of 591 and moved down to a low of 565 in the morning, with a midpoint of 578. The price is currently sitting just below that midpoint. As with previous days I will watch the action when price tests the overnight highs or lows, and then move to the next levels if we pass through.

I think 40D is the REV guy. As far as I know he watches the levels where he expects a possible REV, and then when it gets close he goes to a tick timeframe to look for a reversal with retracement. I guess you could call it micro SLA.

Friday 16th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review One modest success and three scratches today. I stopped when I felt I was overtrading, and in the wrong area for trades. On days where we get endless trends, these entries can be home runs, but today they didn't work. Time to do some weekend study. 1. We opened with an attempt to get to the overnight highs. This failed so I put a short on the retracement. 2. We reached the overnight low and turned. This time I decided to give price the time to test the supply line. I eventually exited when it broke a swing high. 3. Here I decided to go long, and it only lasted until the next bar. This is the 50% point of the fall from a few minutes before the open. 4. I waited until we had past the lows and made a retracement before entering a short. Failed on the next bar. 5. Another short, again failed on the next bar. Not in tune with the market today. Or the market was essentially directionless. Don't assume that the difficulties arose from you. 6. Interesting. After a big rejection of the 50% point we made a retracement for a short. I was not in this one, because I felt I was making mistakes and overtrading.

Friday 16th May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview The last few days we have been stepping downwards, and yesterday we made it back down to 40 which is around the mean of the large daily hinge. We then retraced to 72 before the close of the day. Overnight we could not make it above 67, and in the morning we have drifted down to a low of 51, and are currently attempting to get past 67 again. We have areas of congestion above and below us and a number of highs and lows to watch for. First we must test the overnight highs or lows, and then price can decide on its direction for the day.

Thursday 15th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review After a quick test of the 50% point of yesterday's high and low, we fell strongly for the morning. We are now back into our congested area, and the possibility of hitting further lows. No real problems today, but I am aware of what was said about being afraid of retracements against my entries. I will keep it in mind and try to improve. 1. I was watching to see what would happen at 98 which was 50% of the high of yesterday to the overnight low. When the price turned at 98 I decided to wait for a retracement and try a short. I exited on a quick turn at 83 because of the previous low there. As people have said before, I do need to be a lot braver at these retracements, because the initial entry was quite good. 2. I could re-enter on the break below 83, but I would wait until the next retracement and short around 81. 3. Stopped at 66 whih is 50% between the low at 510 and the high at 624. With the supply line broken I thought we may have a retracement for a long, but it was actually a retracement for a further fall. 4. I waited for a retracement before putting another short on. This time I will do my best to stare down the retracements. 5. lower we get the more we start hitting previous congestion areas. The bars start to get tighter and overlap around here. 6. The supply line is broken again, and I decided to exit. 7. Went long on the retracement, but exited after 5 minutes of going nowhere. when I stand back and look at this, there is also a demand line break and a retracement with a lower high after my entry which would allow a short. But I can only takeone direction at a time.

Thursday 15th May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview Yesterday we could not get up past even the overnight highs and spent most of the day in a large hinge before falling to 583 before the close and recovered to range below 600 during the night. An attempt to rise was halted at 606 and we have fell back in the morning to make a number of lows without getting near the 583 mark the morning we hit 606 and fell back. The highs and lows that we have to pass are much the same as yesterday. We are close to the 580 mark, so we may test that area today, giving potential for a larger fall.

You are well ahead of me Niko. Your testing and analysis are excellent. A few more steps and you are there. I will hopefully be following you to the real trading world soon.

I wish to share my journey with SLA and AMT here. Currently I have been posting at ET, but since most of the conversation is now on TL, I will post my updates here also. Todays update Wedensday 14th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review Today we didn't move much. We stayed within a reasonably tight area. Without trends the retracement entries didn't get far, and eventually I stopped for the day. Maybe the afternoon will bring a change, but for now we are back more or less where we started at the open. 1. After the open we moved up to yesterday's low at 604 and were rejected sharply. 2. Back to the morning low and turned again. We stopped below 610, the 50% point of yesterday's high to todays low, and turned again. Soon it started looking like a hinge. 3. Another higher low, this time off the 50% point at 602. Chancing a long here with no expectations of going far, but only risking a scratch. 4. Eventually it couldn't get through all the congestion above and fell to break the demand line. I guess there is a short here, but I didn't take it. 5. Here we have a retracement for a short, which only makes it to the previous low before turning. Exited because I expected a furter rise in price due to the double bottom with the price from earlier in the morning. 6. After the a double bottom we then had a retracement, so I marked a long here. It didn't get far, and was exited for a small gain. 7. We can't make it up to the highs of the morning. The price moves sideways until the demand line is broken, with retracement for a short, which fails on the next bar. 8. Again we can't get to the morning highs, and fall to break the demand line. Another short entered after retracement. This one is stopped out on the entry bar. Thats enough for today.

No, I never had one. I would need to start making a lot of points just to buy the dog food to feed one of those. I think if you don't feed them constantly, they just eat you instead,

Thanks Niko. We didn't get far with the 2nd open either. Another movement around a mean. Eventually someone will decide to make a breakout. We'll be ready for them at the extremes.

Hi Guys, its Dave from Ireland. I'm here for the 2nd open as well. My TL login has a different name to the ET one. Have this a long time, and can't change the user name.

I know that Db recommends trading the hourly or daily if you can't be in the market at the times when it is most active. This would require larger stops I guess. I'm not sure what other markets to look at. Maybe the FOREX has volatility in the European evening times. That has really big jumps in price though that can catch you out.

That was a day of revolving around a mean. Those used to confuse me, but now I am almost cured. Nice reversal off the failure to breakout, Niko