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Wolfhound
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Everything posted by Wolfhound
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We are still holding around the highs of the past few days. We made an overnight high of 806, and since then have fallen back to the mean. An attempt to reach the highs a few hours ago failed, and has led to a sharp fall off in the early morning. Yesterday I said that we might have a fall because of the way the overnight looked, and then we rose quickly on the open. Today I have no predictions. Just watching for the lows at 83 and 80, and the highs at 801 and 806.
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We travelled back to the highs this morning, and then into a range. None of the trade that I tried worked, and after 3 trades I let it run through the range. 1. This one is a short after we turned at 800. I only lasted 1 bar. 2. Another attempt off the highs, again failed at the next bar. 3. This one comes after a failure at yesterday's highs. It lasted a bit longer, but eventually stopped out. That was it for the day, as we seemed to have settled into a range.
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After hitting the high of 803 from Monday overnight, we quickly fell. We evenetually settled around 98, before a big fall to below Monday's lows. Will this double top be significant today? A fall below 80 could take us a long way down,and looks more likely than a rally to the highs again given the morning action. We will soon find out when the money hits the market.
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The 800 level provided resistance today. I made 3 trades that didn't go anywhere. Looking forward to Wedensday. 1. Short on retracement after another rejection of 800. Stopped out on the next bar. I was aware that the swing high on the previous bar would be a better stop point. 2. Long on break of supply line with retracement. Stopped out a few minutes later. 3. We tried to go above 800 again, and I entered a short on the retracement after the failure. Stopped out as price continued upwards.
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Yesterday we made a high of 803 and a low of 83, with a midpoint at 93. The failure to punch past the highs of 800 was interesting after spending an hour in a tight range above 800. The eventual 20 point failure after that showed that the buyers accepted that they could not get any higher, and moved back to the mean area. In the morning we had 2 lows at 85, so this could be important, as will the 83 below that. We have a reent high at 90.5, and obviously a lot of interest in what happens in the area starting at 800.
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1. On the open we reached 99, below yesterday's highs and turned sharply. We made a lower high, and I entered a short on the bar that broke the lows. Looking at it now I should have waited for a retracement a few bars later, but I entered on the tick retracement. 2. Not a good entry. Shorting at the bottom of a tight range. One to learn from yet again. 3. Long on a retracement. Exited on break of demand line. 4. Short on break of demand line. This one was okay, but exited after 10 minutes of going nowhere, and 4 failures to get below 93.
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We have continued the upward march, and we reached a high of 800 overnight before pausing. Overnight we have a high of 800 and a low of 92 with a midpoint at 96. Currently we are close to the lows of the overnight range, and a break below 92 puts us back into the previous congestion. The previous lows will come quickly given the tight range on friday. The friday low of 81 is quite close, and could easily be tested.
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I made a few trades today within the tight range. Trying to find the balance between overtrading and doing nothing, while keeping the Zen within my soul. It worked okay because it was a very clean up and down day, even though it was in a very tight range. 1. After opening with a rejection of the highs of the early morning, we turned down and reversed again at the overnight high. With the retracement within the bar a long could be placed here. I did not make an entry. 2. Having again rejected the highs we may have been making a range, but I entered a short on the retracement, which was stopped out at breakeven. 3. Yet another bounce off the highs, and I entered the short knowing that it could be stopped out with a bounce off the lows. 4. Again a short within the tight range. This one lasted a few more points before it was exited with the break of the steep supply line. 5. This is a long on the higher low retracement. Exited on break of line. 6. A short on the retracement which was stopped out. This may not have been a good entry, because the price never got near the extreme of the range before turning, so I was entering while price was wandering around the mean. 7. A long after the supply line break and retracement. Exited on the demand line break.
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A big move up yesterday, and overnight. The news of new highs seems to have brought in people eager to pay the high prices. We will follow it up as it goes, and be prepared for the falls when they occour. Overnight we have ranged from 76 up to 84, with a midpoint at 80. Currently we broke above 84 in the morning and are headed past 90. Yesterday's low is at 34, and the 50% to todays high is at 62 for the moment.
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Today we got past our previous highs. I made two trades, the second of which would have been good if I had a wider stop, or some re-entry criteria. 1. We opened up to 55 and then reversed. After moving down we turned at the midpoint of the overnight range 2. Next we couldn't get back to 55 again, and when we moved down we couldn't get through the overnight lows at 40 either. Where next? 3. This time we get through the lows and I placed a short when we had retraced a bit. We turned at the 50% point of yesterday's low to the overnight high, and I exited. 4. The supply line is broken, and I entered a long on the retracement. The exit is on the same bar. These exits annoy me. A stop below the swing low seems sensible, but I would need to accept a 4 point loss if it was triggered. I really need to sort this out or start re-entering.
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Yesterday we tested below the hinge, failed, and then broke out above it. We moved above the March highs during the afternoon, and then fell back before the close. We were in a really tight range for most of the night, and then moved up to a high just below 58 before the open. We have fallen back in the last hour. A breakout above 58 puts us into clear territory, while below 40 we move back into the congested area, and have to watch for previous levels.
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For most of the morning we stayed within yesterday's highs and lows. I only took one trade which stopped out. Not a busy day. 1. At the open we moved downwards to the yesterday's low of 14 where we turned back up. There is a retracement for a long here if desired. I didn't take it. 2. We tried to down out of the hinge and failed, so the next thing was an attempt to break above the long term hourly hinge. This didn't get far before it broke the demand line and a retracement, I put in a short which I exited when it went nowhere for a number of minutes. I didn't take any more trades for the rest of the day.
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Missing for a few days due to computer issues. After hitting the highs of March again a few days ago, we have had a few days wandering around a mean of about 26. We didn't get a breakout into new highs, and we didn't fall quickly either. Obviously a lot of trades are taking place around here, and when the handover ends, it will be interesting to see where the price goes. At the moment we have highs to watch at the various swing highs above and also the mean of our congestion and hinges at around 26. We have lows at 16, 14, 7, and then room for a drop.
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We spent most of the morning going nowhere. We tried to get past the high of 37 and eventually did, but no powerful breakout. I traded too much today, and it was most likely boredom at sitting watching another day kmowing that my skills are not good enough to play these kind of days better. A slap on the wrist for me, and I'll go for a run to help the mind and body stay strong. 1. A test of the overnight high followed by a test of the overnight low. I entered a short here below the overnight low, and it was stopped out instantly. A small loss which I can accept for the potential of a continuation of the fall. After this we had a lot of overlap and appeared to move into a hinge pattern, as buyers and sellers could not take price higher or lower. 2. We have a retracement after the break above the support line. We are in the middle of the 10 point range since the open. I'll wait and see what happens. 3. Rejection at the high again, so I entered on a retracement. Got out when it turned quickly. The difference between this and the last one was we had moved quickly, whereas athe last on was in congestion for a while. 4. We hit the highs again, and this time had a retracement near the highs. I put a short in here, and exited above the break of the supply line. These trades are starting to look like the result being hopeful for action during a day of relative boredom. Looking at the day so far, I can see that the lows are getting higher even though we haven't made a descisive move past yesterday's highs. There seems to be a push towards breaking through that high.
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I understand what you feel Niko. The last 2 weeks have been basically non profit weeks. I guess what we have learned is how to keep losses at a minimum during these times, while we await the trending days. Those 100 point days of March and April seem a long way off now.
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We have finally got to touching distance of the highs. We made it to 37 by the close, and that was as high as we have got since. It will be interesting to see if there is any resistance to getting past 40. We do seem overdue a pause or retracement soon, but I will let the buyers and sellers decide when it happens. Above 40 their is obviously a lot of fresh air, while below, we have made a relatively fast rise, so could easily see a big drop if we fail to get past 40. Overnight we made a low of 29 and moved back towards the middle of the channel. As usual we have to test the overnight channel highs or lows before we can go anywhere.
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A similar day to yesterday. Not much easy trading to be had for me. We moved mostly around a mean in a tight range. If I cannot make money from these, I am happy not to lose much, and wait until trending days. 1. Put a short here off the rejection of the high. Just trying to get in early. This was exited soon after. As the minutes moved on I could see that we were operating within a tight range. I will try to be ready for a breakout from this. It always looks obvious in hindsight. 2. Retracement after the demand line had broken. I exited at breakeven when it made a higher low. It looks like a day were traders are moving as much trades as possible around the mean, and maybe after all this is finished we will get some movement.
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A bit late today to write the prep up. The numbers are similar given that we stayed within the limits of the previous day.
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No big breakout today. We moved below the overnight lows in the morning and then into a downward channel. I took a few trades, and 1 out of 4 worked. As I write, we haven't moved far away from the open, so we may have to wait until later for any strong directional movement. 1. I took a short here after the rejection of 50% at 23. Trying the right tick retracment on this one knowing that it may turn quickly and stop me out. This made it to above 12 before turning. I let it run until we made a higher low, and then moved the stop to break even. Not a perfect trade. Could have got on earlier, but I prefered to enter on the break of the lows. 2. After the stop there is a retracement for a long here above 17, which I didn't take. This made it to the previous highs where it turned. Exiting and re-entering quickly is something that I need to work on. 3. Retracement for a long again here, which was instantly stopped out. The entry is just below the opening low, but I wasn't concerned with that at the time. 4. Demand line break with retracment for a short. We halted at the opening lows and when the price started moving horizontally I moved the stop to 17, just above the high of the 9:58 bar. After the price reached 12 it turned quickly and was exited above 15. This one was a nice clean SLA trade. 5. Turned at 50% of the rise since yesterday's low. Back up into the congested area. No descisive breakout today. Since the open we have barely moved 10 points. 6. This counts as a demand line break with retracement, but I was looking back at previous trades to see where I could have improved, and I missed it until it had already got onto the next bar. I had my demand line drawn for reference, so I shouldn't have missed it. 7. Supply line break with retracement. Time for a long. This on reached the 50% point and turned instantly. A stop below the recent low would have kept me in the trade. Another test of my risk tolerance, but given the fast turn in price it seemed acceptable to close the trade at the time.
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Get well soon Niko. The market can wait for another day
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At this stage we are so close to the highs that I feel we should test them today. This is where it will be interesting to see if we get a fall at the highs, or if the news of new highs pulls in the crowd to buy at any price. Parabolic rhymes with alcoholic, and these highs can be addictive. Overnight we made it as far as 30, and have fallen off by 10 points since then to the overnight lows as I post this. A breakout below pulls us back into congestion soon enough. On the other hand a break above has a high at 40 and clear skies above that.
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Today the general direction was up, but we didn't have many SLA entries. Overall it was fine, with no crazy chop. A day spent mostly watching rather than trading. 1. Opened with a test of the overnight high at 96 which failed above 97. This is a possible point for a short when it passess back into the range. Need to keep watching for these, but currently wouldn't take them. 2. After a higher low we had another fail at the highs, but it didn't turn down this time, and kept going up. 3. We hit 701 and the then the demand line is broken, with a retracement back to 701 for a short on the double top. Need to be fast to get these trades, there is a retracement later on for an entry, but it would be stopped out very quickly. 4. We turned at 94 and made a retracement to give a long opportunity above 701. After that was stopped out, I didn't see any clear opportunities, and we were getting closer to 11am, so I stopped for the day.
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Not much to add this morning. We have made it as far as 96 in the early morning and are coming closer to the next swing highs. The points that I will watch for are the same as yesterday.
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Okay, markets closed for Memorial Day. I was unaware of this before the open. Peace to all, and see you tomorrow.
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We have really taken off in our uptrend over the last week. We may even get parabolic this week. For sure, a further increase towards the March highs will get the talking heads discussing the rise in the media. A fast rise like this also leaves little congestion to slow down any fall in price. Overnight, we made a low of 677 and high of 688. After a test and fail to reach 88 again, we have settled into the higher end of our overnight range around 86. A break downwards has congestion begining at 660, with 50% of our rise from Friday's lows at 667. Because of the rapid rise in price the main congestion with volume below only starts in the 620's. If we go above 688, our next big swing high is at 712, but we usually have action around the round numbers like 700, because people like round numbers, unless its their age.