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Wolfhound
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We opened and soon moved upwards to break through the highs. I didn't catch any of the move up. The short attempts failed, as they should on a day which ultimately saw us move well above the highs. 1. I put a short here on the retracement fron the high, but it couldn't break the recent swing low, and was just a pause before another move upwards. 2. Here there is a short after a double top high. This one starts to work and then fails and we move into a sideways range.
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We have moved above the previous highs on Friday afternoon, and stayed up there overnight. Overnight we have a high of 38 and a low of 28. This low is our previous high, and the price has bounced off this in the morning, before moving back into the middle of the overnight range. We may test 28 again on the open, and if we get through we could have a sell off to match the gains from Friday. Above the high of 38 we have open skies, and below 28 we move back into the congestion of the end of last week.
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We atempted to break upwards today and then fell back to wander around a mean. People thinking of the weekend already. 1. We opened straight up to the overnight highs. This point looked like a rejection to me and I was expecting a fall. Instead we moved straight up yesterday's highs. 2. We got to the highs and started to hinge. Eventually it seemed we had broken above, made a lower high and were trying below. I put on a short here, but we moved back to the highs again. Possible range forming. 3. After reaching the mean of our overnight range, we broke the supply line and retraced for a long. 4. Short on retracement. This doesn't go anywhere and we settle down to a tight range.
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After moving from the top to the bottom and back to the top again of our 60 Min channel, we are now sitting around the midpoint of the channel. The last few days have made tighter ranges, and while no quite a hinge, there is indescision between buyers and sellers of where to go next. The currently seem happy in this area. Overnight we have a high of 820, and a low of 808, with a midpoint at 814. Just before the open we are below the midpoint and await the test of the limits at the open.
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We fell from the top of the channel to the bottom today within 20 minutes of the open. The rest of the morning moved generally sideways. 1. Just before the open we failed to reach yesterday's high. I marked the short on the first retracement after the fail even though it was at the open. I don't know if I could take this in real time, but I have seen how too often I have given litle regard to the failures before the open. 2. This is the next retracement, so I marked in the short also. I would prefer to take the first one, but this is acceptable, although at the overnight low. 3. The price turned at the Midpoint of congestion from the previous days, and the bottom of the 60 min channel. I put a long on the first retracement. 4. We failed to retrace 50% of the fall from the open, and when the DL broke, I put a short on the retracement. By now the price was starting to flatten out after the big fall in the morning. The bars started to overlap, and reduce options for success.
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Yesterday the price hit a low at the open, and moved upwards until the close. Overnight it has settled back to a mean of around 815, and we are currently sitting above the mean before the open. We have overnight highs at 819, and if we move above this then we can watch for further highs at 823 and 828. The overnight low is 812 and we have further lows at 98, 88 and 83 from yesterday. The midpoint of yesterday's move up is 803 and the midpoint of our hourly channel is at 805.
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Didn't do much today. Again mostly just observed what happened. 1. On the open we touched the morning low at 83 and turned upwards. I did wait until we had broken through the overnight high until I placed a long, but this was too late, or too much like wanting a trade to happen. 2. I could have entered long here on the break of supply line with higher high and retracement, but I left it because it looked like we were in a range between 788 and 802. That was it for today.
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Yesterday we had a 50 point up and down move. The breakout of the highs couldn't even hold until the end of the day. A lot ofpeople were willing to buy the new highs and a lot of people were willing to sell and take back at lower prices. The highs and lows of the day were 828 and 781 with a midpoint around 804. Overnight we could not make it past 96, which has seen resistance on previous days, and we have a low at 81 before the close. We are close enough to the lows to make a test at the open, and after that we have lows at 74 and 55.
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A big move up today. I always know its going to be a busy day, when I have to switch out to higher timeframes to check the bigger picture. Today it didn't pay much attention to the lines and levels that I had prepared, apart from a pause around the previous highs at 307. 1. Opened with a move above 97 and eventually reached the highs at 807. We paused here and broke the demand line so I placed a short on the next retracement, which stopped out in a few minutes. 2. In hindsight there is a retracement for a long here after a supply line break, but I didn't see it at the time. 3. A long on the first retracement after the breakout. Stopped out below the swing low. 4. Another long on a retracement, which continues upwards. This was a long way from the initial breakout, but it worked for a while, until price flattened out.
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The price moved between 84 and 97 from yesterday until this morning. Currently we are on the way up to test the highs of 97 again. The highs and lows to watch for are the same as yesterday.
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I didn't do anything today except observe price, and draw a straight line. We made a range from 87 to 97 for most of the morning. We could enter a short at the top of the range, and I thought about it after price broke my line and retraced, but it didn't seem to be a day for going far, so I left it. Try again on Tuesday
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We had a breakout during the night reach 807, before we returned again to the mean of our hourly channel. I don'tknow what inspired that breakout, some news or announcement somwhere? Currently we are sitting at the low 90's waiting for the open. This is roughly the midpoint between Thursdays low and our recent high. Will we try a test above or move down to the lows today? The lows are at 86 to 84, before a gap until 74 the low of Friday. Beyond that we have a low at 55 from Thursday. The highs are at 94 and then the usual potential hurdles to pass from 800 onwards.
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Most of the morning was spent inside the overnight range. We frequently have these days of indescision, where money changes hands to arrive back where we started. They are not too painful, unless I get caught in the chop. 1. After the open we formed a hinge, eventually exiting and breaking above the overnight high. We couldn't quite reach 800 with the breakout, and reversed sharply back to the hinge mean. 2. The price moved in a tight range of overlapping bars, before falling quickly after a feeble attempt to get higher. I entered a short on the first retracement. 3. We didn't quite make it to the overnight low, before we broke the supply line and turned upwards. I entered a long on the first retracement.
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We spent Thursday within the range of Wedensday. We had a high of 805 in the morning and a low of 74 in the afternoon, with price settling somewhere close to the mean of 89 overnight. In the morning we had a high of 94, which is currently being tested before the open. We have highs at 96 and the usual congestion around 800, and lows at 85 and 74.
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Today I had 3 unsuccessful trades. We spent most of the day within the overnight range so it was never going to be easy today. Try again on Friday. 1. We opened and tested the overnight highs. When this failed, we could put a short on the next retracement, but I was waiting for it to pass below the overnight low. 2. A short as we passed out of the overnight range. This one didn't go anywhere. 3. We tried down and didn't go anywhere so I put a long on the attempt to go up. This failed quickly. 4. Another short on the break below the overnight low. This failed again so I stopped for today.
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Long term we are back towards the all time highs. We may see a halt here or a reaction either way. On the 60 min we are sitting at the top of the upward channel, but we will see today it the price ignores it, or if it falls back to the mean. Yesterday we hit a low approx 20 points below the open of 78 and finished with a high approx 20 points above the open. Since then we have stayed at the highs overnight, sitting just below the 803 mark where we have stalled previously. Highs at 803 and 805. Lows at 94 and a big fall to 55. 50% point at 79.
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Today I sat watching it for a long time before trying anything. I missed some entries because of this, but I can accept that more than overtrading. 1. Opened down to the midpoint of 74 and turned back up to test the overnight highs. 2. Here we reached the overnight lows and went back upto the 50% point of the fall. The fall from this could indicate a weakness in price, but it rallys again to the make a double top at the 50% point. 3. After the double top we have a retracement to allow a short, but we could just as easily be within a tight range from 71 to 76. 4. Entering a long here after the retracement following the line break. Could have easily entered way back if I had used a steeper supply line when the price reacted of the mean of previous days action after 1510 on the chart. 5. A short on the retracement. A stop above the swing high would not have been triggered, can I hold for longer? Still reviewing old charts to see if I can accept the higher risk. 6. Another short on retracement if the first one was stopped out. 7. This time I accepted the long from the steep supply line break. We also made a double bottom with the earlier low.
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On the hourly chart we are at the mean of our channel, and may see a movement towards either extreme today. Yesterday we had a low of 63 and a high of 85, and we eventually settled down to the mean of 74 overnight. In the morning we have moved up towards 80 and have held above the mean for now. We have to test the extremes of the overnight high or low at 80 and 71, before we can look at yesterdays highs and lows.
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Decided to mostly just watch the price today. It was a clean up and down day with many retracements for entries. 1. It went below the overnight range, and then turned back upwards. There is a subsequent higher low at the overnight low before we head up past todays open. 2. There are numerous retracements on the way up to the highs.We eventually stop below the highs at 86. 3. Lower high as the rise stops. I marked a short here, and as before we have a number of retracements during the fall to the level where we opened.
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Yesterday we had an up and down day around the eventual mean. Overnight we passed the daytime highs and reached 86, before falling in the morning back to the mean levels. We have highs 81 and 86 and lows at 65, 55 and 50, and it looks like we are in an upward channel on the hourly chart also.
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Today we had a big trend on the open which I didn't get on. There was a retracement after 10 points but I didn't take it thinking that we had a fast rise and were coming near the highs from yesterday. This was a mistake. The rest of the day was fairly normal. 1. We shot right up towards Friday's highs at the open. I placed a short on the double top after the demand line break. It stopped out after a few minutes. We made several lows at 72.5 and then headed upwards. 2. I put a short on the little retracement here. This made it back to 75 which is the mid point of the high and low of the last few days. This area seems to be improtant this morning. 3. Another short on retracement, which I left to see if it would break the previous swing high or go lower. Eventually it went lower back to the open levels.
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Friday stayed around a mean for most of the day, before a fall in the evening. Overnight, we have moved up slowly, and are testing our overnight highs. Above here we have a high on Friday of 79, but to get there we have to pass the congestion on the way, and at the moment we are close to the mean area of Friday. We have recent lows at 55 and 50, and also at 44.
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Friday 13th June 2014 NQ100 1 Min Chart Review -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Today, my first trade was a mistake, but the others were okay. I still have issues with allowing a trade more space to work. Risk v reward issues. 1. A long on a higher low. Looking at it again, I should have waited for a proper break of the line. 2. Demand line broken with retracement for a short. Exited on a higher low break of supply line. 3. Here again the trade is stopped out. A reasonable stop below the swing low would cost 4 points. 4. A short after the break on the demand line. We are quite close to 11am, so probably can't expect another 20 point move now.
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After a big fall yesterday we turned back upwards near the highs of March, and we are now approaching the mid point of the fall at 76. Low to watch for at the bottom of the overnight range at 60, and yesterdays low at 40. We have various swing highs on the way up, before we get to the 800 level.
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Today was okay, I was stopped out early in moves, and didn't re-enter. Seemed like a slow day, but it did have reasonable trends. 1. This one could have been placed a few bars earlier, and it wouldn't have stopped out so easily. I waited until the supply line was properly broken, but the higher low with the previous bars all closing at a high point should indicate a possible end to the downtrend. 2. Short on the lower high. Here a stop above the highs would have worked. 3. Long after the higher low retracement. Waited a long while for this one. It travelled up, eventually breaking the demand line for an exit.