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Wolfhound
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Everything posted by Wolfhound
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Thanks. I need to trust the AMT more when I see it. I have noticed that I seem to favour at horizontal highs and lows over the sloping channels. Practise and repetition is needed.
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Yesterday we have a 20 point range during regular hours, and 30 points overnight and the morning. Someone is busy playing this after hours. We have a high way up at 941, and a low at 894. Since hitting the low a few hours ago, we have moved up steadily and are heading towards the 50% point at 917. Above that there is a high at 21 before we move into yesterday's daytime price movements. Below 895, our next major low is at 880.
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We tried a feeble breakout 20 minutes after the open, and that was it for the day. The rest of the time we marched downwards, but it was difficult to get a good clean SLA entry without the stops being trggered. A REV entry at the highs would have worked, but I do not have confidence in them at the moment. 1. This is the first retracement after the opening fall, so it is an opportunity for a short. These can be a mess this close to the open, and we have a quick 5 point fall, followed by a return to the trigger point. 2. We have a higher low here (which is around yesterday's open), but I didn't put a long in because I felt that I would be drawing a very steep supply line to make the retracement valid. Its a miss of a trade, but I don't mind missing that one. 3. Now we I thought we were going to have a breakout, but it turned before I had finished thinking about what to do. Interestingly the retracement made it to 50% of the rise before turning up again. After this I just watched it move up and down, waiting for something to happen. 4. We broke the demand line after failing yet again at the highs, so I was waiting for a retracement for a short. I sold at the low, which is never good. Looking at this again, we are at the mean so it is not a strong place for a fall. A line break and retracement closer to the highs would be much better. 5. I watched the price fall, and eventually when it had a big drop below the opening lows, I took the supply line break and higher low as an opportunity for a long. It fell without breaking the swing lows, so eventually it went up, but we would need a very wide stop to make that one work.
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After testing the highs yesterday, we fell down to 880, before rising, leaving us with a day that ultimately revolved around a mean of 907. Overnight we moved back up to reclaim all the losses for the day, and then expand into new highs. This wide ranging behaviour during the "close" has happened a few times recently, and movements of 30 or more points have been seen. The markets are being affected by happenings outside of US hours. The high currently sits at 940, and yesterday's low is at 880. It would be quite easy for today to remain well within yesterday's 60 point range. Still waiting for that 4000 though.
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Not an easy day today. It looked to me like we were going to revolve around the mean after failing to break out of either end of the overnight range, but we eventually fell below the range. The fall from the high was nearly 40 points, but it looks hard to gain even a fraction of that unless I get better at this. 1. After the open we moved slowly upwards to the highs and eventually passed through, for what looked like a good breakout. But we turned straight away, so I looked for a short on the first retracement. This made it back to the mean of the overnight range, which is one of the expected outcomes of a failure to break out of the range. 2. There is a second short here on a retracement, but it fails quickly. 3. Here we have a breakout below the range, and we could put a short on a retracement, but this was never triggered. When the price moved back inside the range I thought we might be going back to the mean or above. 4. This breakout has a retracement that fails to get back into the range. This is a place for a short, although we may be on a day that goes nowhere. In the end it moved down well below the overnight range. 5. The recent supply line has broken, and we have a retracement for a long. This died before it started. 6. We have a higher low here and a possible long, but we are now after 11am, and the power of the moves may becoming weaker.
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We eventually reached a high of 31 during the afternoon, before falling towards the close. We still stayed above the previous highs at 18 for the evening, and we have tested that level again in the early morning, reaching a low of 16 before turning up again over the last few hours. It looks like our early limits will be between 16 and 31, and after these, look for previous areas of interest as we fall, or watch the channel highs as we rise.
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1. This one is a bit of a mess. Probably should have shorted on the first retracement, and a bit reluctant to enter because of the double bottom. Either way it didn't get far before turning. 2. The retracment short here failed on the next bar. 3. The retracement is a long way from the lows, but it also bounces off the 50% point of the rise, and so a long is attempted, which makes it up to the highs at 18. 4. We didn't make it past the highs so I entered a short on the first retracement. This one went nowhere, could be a difficult day today. 5. We finally edged past the highs and I thought that this would be a good place for a long. Maybe a little to early and too greedy with this one. From here on I just observed. We didn't make it below the 50% area, so that would indicate strength, but we have also stayed within a narrow range. Better to wait for a breakout in either direction. 6. Finally a proper breakout. Long marked on the first retracement.
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After speanding Friday morning within the previous day's range, we broke out in the afternoon, and moved up to close near 900. Since then we have returned to the previous highs around 918, and it wouldn't take much effort to break through from here. The high of our daily channel is around 970, and if we get there, some brave souls may push for 4000. If we fall at the open, and get below 900, then we start to move towards previous congestion, and further swing lows. Also 50% from the lows of Friday is at 895.
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Tired today, and not trading well. Stayed online mostly to watch, but wasn't on the ball, especially at the open. The price could not break above the Thursday highs in the morning, but we did have some nice clean entries for trades. 1. After the open I was too slow to get onto a short on a rejection of the previous highs. I have marked it in as one that I should have taken. 2. Again there are retracements here for a short, but didn't take it. 3. This one I was awake for. The higher low retracement after the supply line break. 4. The demand line is broken after a failure and lower high at the opening highs (also yesterday's highs). A good place for an SLA short. 5. The price made it back to 50% of the rise, before turning around for a long opportunity. Again, this only made it to the highs before halting.
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Yesterday we hit a low of 31 and a high of 89 with a midpoint at 60. Overnight we tested 889 again, and have since fallen off to 878. So, we have a high at 89, and from the previous day at 91, so this area may have some resistance. Beyond that we have 900 and 918 above it. We have a recent swing low at 66, and again at 31. The price may decide to test these limits or just stay within the borders. Wait and see.
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1. Well I know nothing about predictions. The price went through 41 before the open and then decided to turn around and go back up. I marked a long on the retracement here. 2. We have a retracement here so I marked a short in, which fails quickly on the next bar which makes a slightly higher low than the previous swing low. 3. The next entry is a long after the higher low, supply line break, and retracement. This one moved up above our opening highs, and eventually onwards.
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We have had more movement after the close than we had during the day. After reaching a high of 91 before the close, we have fallen fairly consistantly, to come close to the swing low at 41. If we go below this, we give back our July gains and are back into the congested area of June on the 60 min chart attached. I'm not sure what such a big overnight drop will bring, because I don't see that very often. Obviously I will watch for the 41 point if we keep going down. The daily channel bottom is about 789 at the moment. I will be surprised if we bounce back up off 41, but will still look for the usual retracement entries.
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Today we had a few moves up and down, but stayed well within yesterday's range. After the previous big fall we seemed to be revolving around a mean close to the open price for the morning. 1. On the open we fell slightly and then moved up above 76. I put a long on when we retraced to 50% of the rise and turned back up. This failed quickly, although we made a treble bottom soon after and moved back up. 2. From point 1, we moved up and turned at the 50% point of the fall from yesterday, and moved back down to the opening lows. After a retracement I placed a short. This has a risk of entering at the bottom of a possible range, but for the moment the price moved lower. 3. This is my first retracement after the supply line break. We are at the 50% point of the previous fall, so we may reverse or go nowhere, but in the end it moved up to previous highs. 4. The demand line has broken and we are at the morning highs, but it is late in the morning, so nothing may happen with this one. Ultimately it breaks the LSH, but not the morning high a few minutes before.
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I hope you understood the AMT implications of your first chart. Yes I did Db. I consider myself an advanced beginner by now. I see a lot more than I did before, but believing it all and putting it into profitable practice is a longer step. For me it is like being able to understand a lot of words of a foreign language, but being unable to make too many complete sentences. Eventually I will be writing poetry with this. Aside from AMT, though, there were almost a dozen retracements on the way down, beginning with 0935. You'll want to look at which you didn't take and why. Okay, I'll keep an eye on all the retracements, long or short on the charts.
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Yesterday we returned to the mean of the 60 min channel, after a large fall from the top of the channel. After hitting a low of 841, we have risen again to a high of 872 in the morning. No particular direction is apparent at the moment, and we may decide to rise towards the highs again. Short time to write this because of computer problems. Will watch levels as usual.
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1. At the open we tried higher and failed, we broke through the lows, and I put a short below the lows. I didn't know if it was going to turn back up straight away or make a few points into the congestion of previous days. In the end it fell sharply. As usual I never know what is going to happen after I place a trade. The prep work just gives me an inidcation of areas of interest, and I can choose what to do depending on how price acts at those areas. Today was one of those rare days where it worked straight away. 2. At this point I have indescision. The supply line has been broken, and we have a higher low. However, my longer term chart still shows a long way to the next level, and my prep leads me to expect a further fall. Ultimately it did fall, and this was a dog that didn't bark.
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We failed to get to the highs yesterday, and we then fell back and have moved back below 900, taking back most of the gains of the weekend. Overnight we moved between 897 and 907 and in the morning we are close to yesterday's low of 896. This area is at the highs of last Wedensday, so below this we move into the congestion from then. Below that we have a low at 883, and then a big fall off after that. Above 897 we have highs at 916 and 918. I hope you understood the AMT implications of your first chart.
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A calm day within the previous limits. My entries weren't too bad, and I didn't overtrade. Try again tomorrow. 1. the open it looked like we moved into a tight range. I took a long on the higher low on the chance of getting in early on a breakout, but it didn't happen. 2. I tried a long again, when we bounced off the 50% point. This one worked better, and we moved up to 916 before halting. 3. Because we could not make it to the previous highs, I saw the double top as the opportunity for a short. This did go down eventually, but I would need to have a stop above 916 to hold on. A 2 point stop is manageable. It all depends on how low the entry is from the previous swing high.
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There was no 4000 for the 4th of July, but we did make it above 3900, eventually stopping at 918. Since then we have drifed off to sit above 900 in the morning. For the open we have a low of 905 and a high of 918. Below 905 we will soon start to get into the congestion of previous days. 900 is 50% of the move up over the last few days and it is right within the busy area of Friday.
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The jobs announcement shook things up before the open, but then we stayed within the limits of that trading after the open. Obviously most of the money was played from before the open. 1. The jobs announcement moved the price up before the open, but as so often happens, the rise is retraced on the open. I was a bit late getting into this short, but it was the first retracement for me, and it didn'tgo far. 2. Long after the higher low. 3. We failed to reach the previous highs, so I put a short on the retracement. 4. Another failure to reach the highs. This short went nowhere.
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After making a high of 96.5 yesterday, we made a big fall down to the previous overnight lows at 83. Obviously someone cashing out for the day. We didn't break through that low however, and moved back up to somewhere around our mean for the day of 90. In the morning we have moved up again to the mid 90's. Again, there must be someone out there who would like to test the 900 mark. Wait and see. Areas to watch are the high at 96, and lows at 88 and 83. If we pass through 83 in particular there is not much stopping the price reaching the 50's.
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We tried for the 900 point again today. I couldn't get in at the opening rise and there was a bit of ranging after that. I guess a lot of descisions are being made around this area, so it may take time to work through. 1. We opened upwards to 92, and then retraced 50% of the move from 84. We moved up again to 93, and again retraced without breaking the 50% point. I placed a long here thinking we were either in a range or we might be showing signs of strength for a breakout. This reached 93 again and failed. 2. After a lower high and retracement I put a short on which may only go to 88. Eventually it made it just past 88 before turning up. At this point I thought we might be in a range for now. 3. Here we did not drop below the overnight high on the retrace, so I chanced a long, knowing that the all time high was a few points away. This went nowhere. 4. This time after the line break and higher low we had some space to the top if it worked, so I put a long on here, which moved up to the highs again eventually.
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We made it to 894 yesterday. Not quite 900, but close enough that we can touch it easily today. Often after these crazy up days we get a similar reaction downwards, so it will be interesting to see if this happens today. Now that we are close to 900, traders will be dreaming of 4000 for the holiday (and maybe a crash afterwards). Overnight we have moved between 83 and 91, and we are close to the upper end of this at the moment. A break below 83 could giv us a big fall, and above 91 will see us test at 94, and possibly closer to the 900 mark. Hopefully it will be interesting today, and not just a ramble around the mean.
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Excellent. The magic lines work again. At the time, no one thought we would get here, yet here we are. Current upper limit is at or about 4050.
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The price has continued its march upwards. The daily demand line is strong, and we are consistantly making new highs now. Now we are above 850, people will be looking at the next round number at 900. It will be interesting to see if we get there, and it there is a big profit take at that point. Something to watch for over the week. Yesterday, after a big fall before the close, which took back a lot of the days gains, we have continued upwards overnight, and have broken the highs before the open. The indications are that there is interest in bringing the price higher.